5/4/24 1:10PM Tigers @ Yankees

[chasfh]

Hold onto your jocks—Hinch is stationed at the chess board ... 🤣

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Obviously, he IS basing lineup decisions on short-term numbers.

Not only short term numbers, but there is a lot of batter vs pitcher in the Tigers mix. I suppose you could look at a guy's week to week or month to month (whatever you pick) OPS variance over a year get some idea of how consistent he is. If he's a really solid same every day guy, you maybe don't change your expectation over any short stretch. Maybe another guys is more streaky (Candelario?) and you want to move hin up when it looks like he going on a tear. Right now the Tigers have a lot of guys with short track records, so you don't have the depth of data, and even if you do, when you start slicing and dicing to finer sets of conditions sample sizes get down to where they lose significance. So even if you call yourself %100 quantitative, you are still make meta level judgements about how to use your data.

[Tiger337]

What if your best hitter is batting third and your first or second hitter makes the last out before he comes to bat?  

[chasfh]

Some here get their wish as Tork finally swings at a first pitch in the zone.

[gehringer_2]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't know how much Perez can get on base long term.  He has potential, but he wasn't doing it in AAA early this year so this could just be a hot streak.  Everybody got all excited about Meadows last season and now look at him.   

Wenceel did finish pretty strong last season - if he's actually making a breakthrough it would be completely out of the blue, but it's still not very likely he's a 900 OPS major leaguer!

Edited May 4 by gehringer_2

[Dtrain72]

Not sure why Bally's been over hyping the return of Ibanez like he's the second coming of baseball jeebus...but that'a just Bally being Bally I reckon.

[AZTigersfan]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

If Mize was doing as poorly as Tork, he would have a 6.9 ERA and walking every other hitter. He's fine, no reason to distract from the main issue...Tork is a major bust...😆

Do major busts hit 31 homers? I disagree, and think it’s hyperbole. There’s no denying he’s been awful this year but there’s data to suggest he can and likely will have a good productive career. Major bust are out of baseball in a few years or flounder around in the minors, look at a lot of our picks in the 90’s. 

[chasfh]

C-Mo sounded awful thrilled and excited there describing how Rizzo jacked a bomb off us earlier in the day.

[IdahoBert]

I like how Lee has used the term “sabermetrically” twice in the last two days, which is sort of like saying “father” instead of “Dad.” I like it. It packs more punch. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, chasfh said:

Some here get their wish as Tork finally swings at a first pitch in the zone.

He did in the previous AB also- and missed a cutter. Still, I'd rather see him swinging at most strikes than taking them. If a pitcher make a perfect pitch on a bottom corner, sure, tip you hat and watch it go by, but I'm a firm believer hitters have to compete against most strikes. 

[Tiger337]

14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

You just refuted yourself in the same post.

Obviously, he IS basing lineup decisions on short-term numbers.

Tell me again, why is Wenceel batting 3rd today?

And Tork 7th?

No, I didn't refute myself.  Tork has been struggling for over a month now making his long-term projections look worse. Austin Riley is off to a slow start as well, but you wouldn't move him down in the order because he has enough of a track record to suggest that he will start hitting soon.  Tork does not have a sustained track record, so it makes since to move him down after more than a month of not hitting. 

[Sports_Freak]

11 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I've started seeing that on MLB.tv, I couldn't be more thrilled, and I hope it never changes back to a rotation of the same four commercial spots running throughout the game.

I agree, it's much easier to ignore than some horrible jingle.

[AZTigersfan]

52 minutes ago, kdog said:

Wut??? Mize has been decent this year after two huge surgeries.

An era over 4, low k rate, tons of time missed, and a MIA splitter (his supposed signature pitch) is decent for a 1:1? 

People expect a triple crown out of Tork apparently, seems expectations for Mize  are not in the same stratosphere for some reason.

Regardless of the disproportionate expectations, I’m still a fan of both. 

Edited May 4 by AZTigersfan

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Wenceel did finish pretty strong last season - if he's actually making a breakthrough it would be completely out of the blue, but it's still not very likely he's a 900 OPS major leaguer!

Lots of guys finish strong in the minors and then can't sustain anything in the majors.  He is intriguing, but I am not ready to build my line-up around him!.  There was a lot of excitement about Baddoo and Meadows initially too. 

[Sports_Freak]

7 minutes ago, AZTigersfan said:

Do major busts hit 31 homers? I disagree, and think it’s hyperbole. There’s no denying he’s been awful this year but there’s data to suggest he can and likely will have a good productive career. Major bust are out of baseball in a few years or flounder around in the minors, look at a lot of our picks in the 90’s. 

He hit .230 with 170 strikeouts while hitting those 31 home runs? Those aren't inspiring stats.

[AZTigersfan]

Just now, Sports_Freak said:

He hit .230 with 170 strikeouts while hitting those 31 home runs? Those aren't inspiring stats.

Ok, sure, I can concede that, but your label of “major bust” is still ridiculous. 

[Sports_Freak]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

Lots of guys finish strong in the minors and then can't sustain anything in the majors.  He is intriguing, but I am not ready to build my line-up around him!.  There was a lot of excitement about Baddoo and Meadows initially too. 

So you shuffle the lineup when he comes back to earth. In the meantime, use him getting on base to bat in front of Greene. Pretty simple unless you have a stubborn manager who refuses to look at results instead of "what may happen."

[1984Echoes]

13 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

What if your best hitter is batting third and your first or second hitter makes the last out before he comes to bat?  

Not in the 1st inning.

But after that.. yeah, of course that happens.

But our bottom of the order is getting outs at roughly an 80% rate and Canha & Perez are getting out at roughly 62 and 63% rates... so there is marginally, less chance of that.

As per PA's... so Greene gets how many less PA's in a week in the 3 spot instead of the 1st spot...? 3 or 4, more or less.

So Greene has 6 empty bases HR's.

Which counts more in the run-scoring department: His PA's? Or men on base when he HR's?

I don't have the answer to that question...

I'm just asking...

[Sports_Freak]

2 minutes ago, AZTigersfan said:

Ok, sure, I can concede that, but your label of “major bust” is still ridiculous. 

Lmao...look at the results. He is quite horrible and the one and only reason he's on the team is because of his draft status. Potential? I just don't see it. He's good for 1 thing, hitting home runs. And he's still at....zero.

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, AZTigersfan said:

Do major busts hit 31 homers? I disagree, and think it’s hyperbole. There’s no denying he’s been awful this year but there’s data to suggest he can and likely will have a good productive career. Major bust are out of baseball in a few years or flounder around in the minors, look at a lot of our picks in the 90’s. 

well, just to play Debbie Downer, I'd note that Chris Shelton hit 35 HR in about 220 games and was never seen nor heard from again......

I still think Torkelson has a ton of talent as a hitter but he needs to break himself down and start over with his mental approach and he doesn't seem capable of doing it under this coaching staff. It happens.

[Edman85]

25 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't know how much Perez can get on base long term.  He has potential, but he wasn't doing it in AAA early this year so this could just be a hot streak.  Everybody got all excited about Meadows last season and now look at him.   

I do think it is a hot streak, but I have two reasons to have some optimism.

1. The Tigers, who have some way to measure swing mechanics and the like, are batting him high. That suggests they may not think it is a fluke. I am a bit more inclined to believe streaks like this early in the season.

2. He had a lot of injuries on the way up the farm. I need to refresh myself on the nature of the injuries, but that could take a dent out of his numbers if he was playing at 80% much of the time. Of course it also makes him more susceptible to future injury.

 

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I do think it is a hot streak, but I have two reasons to have some optimism.

1. The Tigers, who have some way to measure swing mechanics and the like, are batting him high. That suggests they may not think it is a fluke. I am a bit more inclined to believe streaks like this early in the season.

2. He had a lot of injuries on the way up the farm. I need to refresh myself on the nature of the injuries, but that could take a dent out of his numbers if he was playing at 80% much of the time. Of course it also makes him more susceptible to future injury.

 

The low K rate so far is encouraging. If you can get around on velo and aren't fooled enough to be striking out much, you've got a shot at hitting in the majors. The other knock on Wenceel coming up was that he hasn't shown any power, so whether the 3 HR he's hit so far are projectable is a big question.

Edited May 4 by gehringer_2

[Dtrain72]

6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Lmao...look at the results. He is quite horrible and the one and only reason he's on the team is because of his draft status. Potential? I just don't see it. He's good for 1 thing, hitting home runs. And he's still at....zero.

If he finally hits a homer at some point in say these first 50 games, he'll be on pace to hit aprox 3.5 this season 😆

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not in the 1st inning.

But after that.. yeah, of course that happens.

But our bottom of the order is getting outs at roughly an 80% rate and Canha & Perez are getting out at roughly 62 and 63% rates... so there is marginally, less chance of that.

As per PA's... so Greene gets how many less PA's in a week in the 3 spot instead of the 1st spot...? 3 or 4, more or less.

So Greene has 6 empty bases HR's.

Which counts more in the run-scoring department: His PA's? Or men on base when he HR's?

I don't have the answer to that question...

I'm just asking...

Perez does not have any kind of track record, so I am not building an order around him.  I am fine with Canha leading off and Greene batting second.  Over the course of a season, Greene would lose about 36 PA by batting 3rd instead of first. 

It's fun to talk about batting orders, but Having Geene bat third instead of first is probably worth maybe 5 runs over the course of a season and I am not sure it would go in the direction you think.  In the end, batting orders are not that important especially when you've got 4 or 5 .450 OPS guys playing regularly.

 

 

[1984Echoes]

21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Wenceel did finish pretty strong last season - if he's actually making a breakthrough it would be completely out of the blue, but it's still not very likely he's a 900 OPS major leaguer!

Wenceel was a high hit tool high-OBP prospect when we signed him as a 16 year old.

I'm not even going to speak to his slugging percentage but he HAS filled out since then... so there's that. But... I'll just call whatever he offers with slugging % as bonus and just stick with OBP for the moment:

As a 17/18 year old in Dominican and Low-A ball: .387 and .363 OBP.

As a 19 & 21 yo (2020 = pandemic = no minors play recorded) at Low and High A: he struggled. .299 and .329 OBP.

As a 22 yo, in 2022, in High A and in AA a .369 OBP.

As a 23 yo in AA and AAA a .369 OBP.

 

If he ends up a .900 OPS player in MLB... fantastic! But even disregarding, again, whatever SP he's able to provide, or not, in MLB... I'm comfortable with relying on him as an OBP guy that I want in front of Greene.

Just my 2 cents.