Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 1 minute ago, chasfh said: I think if we have a wild card spot in hand at the deadline, or at least a 50% chance to get one, we might hang onto him. If all we have is a mathematical chance, I don’t think that will be enough to justify holding onto him. We simply don’t have the basis of team in a position to consistently contend. Harris is going to have to get us there before we start buying at the deadline. It probably won't be 50% given all the team in the hunt. It could be somewhere between the current 15 or so percent and 50%, but I'm not sure how meaningful thoses percentages are anyway. I think it also depends on how the pitching staff looks at the deadline. Is Olson good? Does the bullpen bounce back? If the pitching staff looks strong and healthy, I they would be more likely to go for the wildcard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Just now, Tiger337 said: It probably won't be 50% given all the team in the hunt. It could be somewhere between the current 15 or so percent and 50%, but I'm not sure how meaningful thoses percentages are anyway. I think it also depends on how the pitching staff looks at the deadline. Is Olson good? Does the bullpen bounce back? If the pitching staff looks strong and healthy, I they would be more likely to go for the wildcard. and they need to find another hitter because it doesnt sound like Kerry is back before the All-star break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 11 minutes ago, chasfh said: I think if we have a wild card spot in hand at the deadline, or at least a 50% chance to get one, we might hang onto him. If all we have is a mathematical chance, I don’t think that will be enough to justify holding onto him. We simply don’t have the basis of team in a position to consistently contend. Harris is going to have to get us there before we start buying at the deadline. The return cost on rentals have gone down significantly in the past few years...so unless you get a decent price, is it worth it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 34 minutes ago, kdog said: I know we're not ready to compete. But the current core we have won't be on the same time cycle as the next wave of prospects. When the Clark/McGonigble/Jobe wave is ready, Skubal and Greene will be aging out due to contract or other reasons. So how do we try and maximize what we have now while we wait? Or ar we just waiting? I've seen the Avila inertia plan. Lose in the majors and hope and pray that your high draft picks turn into something. Harris isn't doing that. I need to see his first bold move that declares his timeline. Right now, it's very hazy in my opinion. He declared his timeline with last years draft taking Clark instead of Langford. We are currently still in a rebuild but, hopefully, a much smarter one done by a much smarter GM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 The Tigers put losing teams on the field because Avila and Chadd and the rest of them were bad at their jobs. It wasn't a deliberate attempt to improve their draft position. They knew what to do, they were just really bad at doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 59 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: He declared his timeline with last years draft taking Clark instead of Langford. We are currently still in a rebuild but, hopefully, a much smarter one done by a much smarter GM. It was reported at the time that they wanted Clark, in part, because they were able to get him under slot which gave them a little more money to be able to get McGonigle over slot with the second pick. It's also, possible that they thought Clark would have the better career even if they had to wait. . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 25 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said: The Tigers put losing teams on the field because Avila and Chadd and the rest of them were bad at their jobs. It wasn't a deliberate attempt to improve their draft position. They knew what to do, they were just really bad at doing it. When I use the term "tanking", I use it to suggest they are sacrificing multiple seasons by starting essentially from scratch in a re-build. I don't think they are actively trying to finish last so they can get a top pick. By not attempting to win, it allows them to save money rather than attempt to put a half-way decent team field on the field. In Avila's case, I don't think the plan was for this phase to last as long as it did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 I don't think Langford vs Clark is declarative of a timeline. Like Lee said, they did it as a strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 5 hours ago, chasfh said: Given how Ilitch was willing to spend after 2021 when Avila convinced him that we were ready to win, I really doubt that he is instructing Harris to keep payroll low first, and make everything else subservient to that imperative. I don't really agree. 2021 was 3 years ago and our payroll has dropped dramatically. You may be right and Chris is willing to spend but we really don't know that. And not to sound like a broken record but JD Martinez was out there when the Tigers knew their lineup was going to struggle offensively. A team that wanted to have a chance to make the playoffs would have gone after him. They may have for all we know but it seems we may have heard about it. What we did hear was Hinch didn't want a full-time DH. He wanted to give players a bit of a day off at DH. And then they called up a kid who is a defensive liability and put his at...full-time DH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger2022 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 7 hours ago, chasfh said: I think Harris is acknowledging that we truly are in a rebuild, but he’s being careful with what he says about it because he doesn’t want to scare away fans by saying, in that many words, that this is a rebuild so strap in. But reading between the lines of his interviews, he has said that we won’t go after free agents until the building blocks of a contender are in place. He also isn't going to throw Bumbling Al Avila under the bus because that is really saying Ilitch sucks as an owner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger2022 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 (edited) 4 hours ago, kdog said: The return cost on rentals have gone down significantly in the past few years...so unless you get a decent price, is it worth it? It'll cut payroll even if it isn't that much. I think that is important to ilitch because a million saved is a million earned. Edited June 12 by tiger2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 15 hours ago, tiger2022 said: He also isn't going to throw Bumbling Al Avila under the bus because that is really saying Ilitch sucks as an owner. That's true, and also, if someone starts publicly bad-mouthing other executives, active or retired, living or dead, in their organization or not, people are not going to trust or respect them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger2022 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 5 minutes ago, chasfh said: That's true, and also, if someone starts publicly bad-mouthing other executives, active or retired, living or dead, in their organization or not, people are not going to trust or respect them. Exactly. You don't badmouth others because that cuts down on future employment opportunities after you get fired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 16 hours ago, Sports_Freak said: I don't really agree. 2021 was 3 years ago and our payroll has dropped dramatically. You may be right and Chris is willing to spend but we really don't know that. And not to sound like a broken record but JD Martinez was out there when the Tigers knew their lineup was going to struggle offensively. A team that wanted to have a chance to make the playoffs would have gone after him. They may have for all we know but it seems we may have heard about it. What we did hear was Hinch didn't want a full-time DH. He wanted to give players a bit of a day off at DH. And then they called up a kid who is a defensive liability and put his at...full-time DH. I think Chris has already shown us he is willing to spend after 2021, but that was when they thought they were ready to compete right then and there. The 2022 season showed us we were not what Al Avila convinced us we were, and there's no reason to throw money at a rotting core just to get you closer to the playoff spot you're most probably not gonna get anyway. I'm pretty sure Harris made no overtures toward J.D. Martinez, and I believe it's because J.D. is just not a fit for a team that's not mostly cooked and ready to compete. The playoffs this was was always going to be a nice-to-have, not ours to lose. Besides, I'd be surprised if J.D., in his waning years, would come to a team not ready to compete, anyway. After all, free agents do have agency, which is merely a schmancy nouveau term for having a choice. Hinch isn't the only one who doesn't want a full-time DH. Harris didn't want a full-time DH either, and most teams don't want or use a full-time DH. Hinch is not a lone wolf villain in that regard. They had to bring up Malloy not because he was ready, but because Carpenter is out, Why are we not playing Malloy at 3B or in the OF instead of DH? I think we already know why. If you think we should have brought up someone with a glove instead, I'd love to hear who people think that should have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 18 hours ago, Tiger337 said: When I use the term "tanking", I use it to suggest they are sacrificing multiple seasons by starting essentially from scratch in a re-build. I don't think they are actively trying to finish last so they can get a top pick. By not attempting to win, it allows them to save money rather than attempt to put a half-way decent team field on the field. In Avila's case, I don't think the plan was for this phase to last as long as it did. I think "tanking" is more than just a synonym for rebuilding, which is what I think you're describing. I do think there are teams who deliberately put teams on the field they hope will get them a higher draft pick, because really, if you're trying your hardest but you're already going to lose 92 anyway, what's the difference whether you lose 102, as long as you get a better player out of it? People may think tanking is what I myself am advocating, and perhaps I may not be able to convince anyone I'm not no matter how nuanced (a dirty word) I am while describing the idea, but I'm just describing what I believe some organizations have done and maybe are even doing now. When talking about thirty different orgs, I believe the odds are high that some of them will tank. As for Avila: maybe it was as simple as, he thought he could build a winner the way teams could in the 1990s. Maybe he was just a man stuck in an era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 20 hours ago, kdog said: The return cost on rentals have gone down significantly in the past few years...so unless you get a decent price, is it worth it? Meaning, is it worth our selling a guy like Flaherty? If that's what you mean, we haven't seen Harris sell yet, so I think he deserves the chance to show us what he can do when he does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 20 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It probably won't be 50% given all the team in the hunt. It could be somewhere between the current 15 or so percent and 50%, but I'm not sure how meaningful thoses percentages are anyway. I think it also depends on how the pitching staff looks at the deadline. Is Olson good? Does the bullpen bounce back? If the pitching staff looks strong and healthy, I they would be more likely to go for the wildcard. I don't think we have enough of a team to mortgage the future and go for anything yet. We're not done cooking yet. I think if we can somehow stumble into the playoffs with the green, young team we have now, that will be nice. But I feel confident we're not going to liquidate the top of our farm system so we can win 86 this year and cross our fingers that's enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 22 hours ago, oblong said: THere doesn't need to be a tank type rebuild. I think Scott's team is good enough so that the team will always be around .500, like we have now. I just hope they are working through the hitting issues properly and if these guys struggles are due to coaching and approach then that gets addressed. It seems kind of hard to be this bad at the plate across the board without it being structural but what do i know? I feel pretty confident there will not be a tank-type rebuild under Harris. Otherwise, I think we would be seeing that right now, because given the early stage of development we're now realizing the org is at, now would probably be the time to go all in on such a strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 23 hours ago, oblong said: You are not in the minority. Am I not, though? Maybe I'm not interpreting it all properly, but it looks to me as though many, if not most, of the posters here are complaining loudly about how we are not winning and competing for a ring, or at least playoffs, with this team as currently constructed, with the players we have on the team right now, as though Harris has had plenty of time, we should be all done remaking the team by now, and we should expect to be playing baseball in October instead of golf, and anything less than that is a failure. I don't see it that way at all. I thought at the beginning of the season we would have a puncher's chance to make the playoffs, but I can see now that I too overrated their progress at the time. The difference with me, I think, is that I've come around to the idea that the organization was just not as far along as I'd hoped, while others seem to believe we have the horses right now and that it's the coaching that's failing us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyAbbott Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 I still keep coming back to the intro presser for Harris. He barely managed to keep from laughing out loud when asked about the Tiger's farm system. He is doing exactly what one should have thought after hearing him speak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 11 minutes ago, chasfh said: Am I not, though? Maybe I'm not interpreting it all properly, but it looks to me as though many, if not most, of the posters here are complaining loudly about how we are not winning and competing for a ring, or at least playoffs, with this team as currently constructed, with the players we have on the team right now, as though Harris has had plenty of time, we should be all done remaking the team by now, and we should expect to be playing baseball in October instead of golf, and anything less than that is a failure. I don't see it that way at all. I thought at the beginning of the season we would have a puncher's chance to make the playoffs, but I can see now that I too overrated their progress at the time. The difference with me, I think, is that I've come around to the idea that the organization was just not as far along as I'd hoped, while others seem to believe we have the horses right now and that it's the coaching that's failing us. I was thinking more about you not being alone, I think we're in the same boat. So maybe we're in the minority. I had this team pegged at a "If things go well they could win 85-87 games" Things aren't going well enough to justify that. I'm not surprised by that. I am surprised by some hitting woes but I am also surprised by the starting pitching, even Skubal. That's baseball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: Meaning, is it worth our selling a guy like Flaherty? If that's what you mean, we haven't seen Harris sell yet, so I think he deserves the chance to show us what he can do when he does. He did sell Lorenzen last year (IMHO). The return looks decent so far. I have been looking on to see if this FO can acquire players outside the organization via trade. It will be very important because anyone who thinks you can build through the draft only and then the FA position(s) you need just shows up, and will sign here, is fooling themselves (including this FO if they think that). IMHO, there has to be player acquisitions. I have mentioned it over and over. Maybe trade from a position of strength or value for value. I still feel a good FO needs someone that can negotiate a deal. There is a knack to this. Do we have that? We have some prospects (I do not mean our top 3-4 either) that another team may be willing to obtain. Maybe they have a player they wish to move on from that is signed. Maybe they have a prospect that is blocked that we like, etc. A good FO can do this. SHarris and JGreenberg need to show that they can identify and project (good scouting, analytics, etc.) and come up with some players via trades. As for Flaherty, still a ways to go. He has to stay healthy and pitch reasonably well. Heck, maybe they hang onto him if a deal is not worth it - do they not get a draft pick if they lose him? that right there has a certain value. Maybe re-sign him to a higher AAV short term deal. I do not think SHarris has any intentions on signing Ps to longer term deals. His history is 'short term' and sometimes pillow contracts. I am actually for this approach when it comes to SPs. They 'may' need to make an exception with Skubal. Yet, if that intention is not there, then they may entertain offers for him at some point. There are two big factors also in relation to building a roster - Health is the big 'elephant in the room' and in today's game - a good GM knows this. Luck is there as well. Yet, preparation can favor those who understand this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 You’re right he did sell Lorenzen and got Hao-You Lee who I saw Jack a bomb in Erie last week. Lorenzen wasn’t a top trade chip though so assuming Flaherty can stay healthy (😬), we should see something even better for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3 minutes ago, oblong said: I was thinking more about you not being alone, I think we're in the same boat. So maybe we're in the minority. I had this team pegged at a "If things go well they could win 85-87 games" Things aren't going well enough to justify that. I'm not surprised by that. I am surprised by some hitting woes but I am also surprised by the starting pitching, even Skubal. That's baseball. If Torkelson, Keith, and Baez hit more along the lines of reasonable expectations rather than their respective OPS+s of 69, 56, and 29, this team is currently in a wildcard spot. Those deltas alone have probably cost a handful of games when they are currently only 3.5 games out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 (edited) 7 minutes ago, alex said: I have been looking on to see if this FO can acquire players outside the organization via trade. It will be very important because anyone who thinks you can build through the draft only and then the FA position(s) you need just shows up, and will sign here, is fooling themselves (including this FO if they think that). Precisely this. Edited June 13 by 1776 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.