2024 Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

the tigers will hope his injury is permanent so they can collect insurance on his contract rather than having to eat it all to get rid of him.

unfortunately not likely

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, buddha said:

what kind of delusional soul wants to give al avila credit for the tigers' eventual turnaround?

even 84lives has given up that ghost.

avila is the worst gm the tigers have had in my lifetime.  at least randy smith didnt trade hall of famers for peanuts.

Smith was worse.  Year after year after year of terrible draft picks and pointless trades.  I think Avila had a plan and stuck with it, but ws bad at executing it.  Smith didn't even have a plan.  

[Tenacious D]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Smith was worse.  Year after year after year of terrible draft picks and pointless trades.  I think Avila had a plan and stuck with it, but ws bad at executing it.  Smith didn't even have a plan.  

Agree.  Avila > Smith

[oblong]

I’m willing to assume Avila made some foundational improvements to the front office in terms of systems and hirings that didn’t manifest into success at the ML level but were still useful. 

[1984Echoes]

6 hours ago, oblong said:

I’m willing to assume Avila made some foundational improvements to the front office in terms of systems and hirings that didn’t manifest into success at the ML level but were still useful. 

I would also call them a "starting point".

It doesn't matter if Avila wasn't good enough to see it all the way through or, put another way, switching to an analytical organization was just simply over his head. He started the job.

And everyone says: "Gotta start somewhere."

That's, at least, what Avila did. As Lee said, he was bad at execution. That's on the list of reasons to jettison Avila.

We're all hoping Harris is the right guy to finish, or conduct properly, what Avila started. I think he is. I believe in him... proof will be in the pudding.

Just my 2 cents.

[LongLiveMaroth]

Again, This is a Jim Bowden article so take this with a pile of salt. This is what more than 35 executives thought would be the best-starting pitcher, hitter, and reliever traded and 2 Tigers made the list.

2. Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers

Flaherty has had a strong comeback season, going 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings (14 starts). He’s been worth 2.4 bWAR. The 28-year-old is eligible to be a free agent after this season.

7. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

There were two executives who mentioned Skubal, which totally shocked me. He has been a Cy Young Award candidate all year, going 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA over 16 starts with 112 strikeouts in 97 innings. He’s tied for the major-league lead among pitchers with 3.9 bWAR. And he comes with two additional years of control. However, both of these execs suggested that if a team like the Orioles or Dodgers decided they wanted to trade significant prospects — both in quality and quantity — there could be an offer so good, the rebuilding Tigers won’t be able to say “no.” Now that would be a stunner.

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Again, This is a Jim Bowden article so take this with a pile of salt...

7. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

There were two executives who mentioned Skubal, which totally shocked me. He has been a Cy Young Award candidate all year, going 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA over 16 starts with 112 strikeouts in 97 innings. He’s tied for the major-league lead among pitchers with 3.9 bWAR. And he comes with two additional years of control. However, both of these execs suggested that if a team like the Orioles or Dodgers decided they wanted to trade significant prospects — both in quality and quantity — there could be an offer so good, the rebuilding Tigers won’t be able to say “no.” Now that would be a stunner.

If it includes two future Cy Young pitchers and two All-Star position players...

I'm on board.

[tiger2022]

If they trade Skubal, it will basically be throwing up the white flag and admitting it will be 5 years before the team is even remotely capable of making the playoffs.

[1984Echoes]

21 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

If they trade Skubal, it will basically be throwing up the white flag and admitting it will be 5 years before the team is even remotely capable of making the playoffs.

This is not even remotely correct.

Pure hyperbole.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, buddha said:

what kind of delusional soul wants to give al avila credit for the tigers' eventual turnaround?

even 84lives has given up that ghost.

avila is the worst gm the tigers have had in my lifetime.  at least randy smith didnt trade hall of famers for peanuts.

Lots of posters here were, and not just one or two guys. I was personally getting a lot of static for insisting that Avila was an abject failure by people who countered me with how many Avila guys were still on the team and in the system, and apparently because Harris didn't release them all when he came on board, Avila gets the credit for bringing them on board and helping to build the next Tigers winner. I even got hammered for saying Avila did not make a genius move by drafting Skubal in the ninth round and Carpenter 19th round. That was just a month ago!

As for Avila being worse than Randy Smith, you've probably seen how people here roundly reject that assertion, although I'm probably the closest guy to you here on that point.

Edited June 26 by chasfh

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

If they trade Skubal, it will basically be throwing up the white flag and admitting it will be 5 years before the team is even remotely capable of making the playoffs.

This, I agree with, which is why I believe Harris won't—indeed, can't—do this. Do this and they might as well lock up the stadium to keep any remaining fans from getting in.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

As for Avila being worse than Randy Smith, you've probably seen how people here roundly reject that assertion, although I'm probably the closest guy to you here on that point.

I get that you have decided that Avila can not get any credit for any successes from players currently on the team and that any player that succeeds will be because of something Harris did.  However, Randy Smith was horrible.  The only thing that saved him was Gonzalez not wanting anything to do with Detroit and refusing that stupid contract.  

[LongLiveMaroth]

2 hours ago, tiger2022 said:

If they trade Skubal, it will basically be throwing up the white flag and admitting it will be 5 years before the team is even remotely capable of making the playoffs.

That is an interesting take on trading Skubal. I am not a proponent of trading Skubal let me just start off by saying that but let's view it through a non-we've been rebuilding for 7 years lens. Skubal is a Boras-represented player with arm injury history as fresh as last year and is signed through 2026 I believe so 2 1/2 more years.

If Baltimore comes to you and says hey we are willing to trade you Basallo, Mayo, and a couple of others off of their non-top 100 prospects which addresses your future at Catcher and 3rd Base and some possible other fliers. I would be hard-pressed to pass that up. I know people are going to say you have to get Holliday but assuming you couldn't the above would be hard not to say yes to. Pitching injuries can happen at any time and Skubal has not shown the durability of a JV or Scherzer so while he is a fantastic player there are absolutely scenarios in which I would trade him and it not be seen as a white flag at least in my eyes but rather a calculated risk move.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I get that you have decided that Avila can not get any credit for any successes from players currently on the team and that any player that succeeds will be because of something Harris did...

Avila also does NOT get credit for starting up the Caesar data system, and shifting the Org 180 degrees to an analytically driven approach. Even though he DID do that.

Avila also does NOT get credit for bringing in ANY analytical personnel because... hmmm, I don't know why Chas and buddha say he gets credit for NOTHING. Even though he DID do that. Hinch and Fetters don't count. Garko doesn't count. NOBODY MATTERS that Avila brought in because... well, I don't know the reason why. You'll have to ask chas & buddha why they REFUSE to give credit where credit is due. IMO: that's despicable. And the stream of justifying EXCUSES not to give credit where credit is due is gutless. IMO.

Avila also does NOT get credit for ANY trades since he mucked up the JV & JD trades. So Olson, Candelario, Paredes...  NOBODY counts. Even though he DID make other trades, not just JV and JD.

Avila also does NOT get credit for building a pitching developmental staff that takes fringe or better pitchers and turns them into something. Beau Brieske's development gets NO CREDIT, but you'll have to ask chas and buddha WHY. Same with Olson, same with a 9th round pick in Skubal. Same with Foley. Same with a crapload of other pitchers, even if they end up middle relievers. THEY DON'T COUNT. Because Avila was involved. That's why.

Avila also does NOT get credit for ANY PLAYERS AT ALL. Because chas & buddha have decided this.

Awesome.

Actually, no. I find it ****ing reprehensible and gutless.

I do NOT credit Avila for turning this team around. I DO give him credit for the things he actually ****ing DID.

[kdog]

One thing on Avila...baseball conventional wisdow has improved. Nobody is taking a reliever 1-1 anymore. Basic valuations on draft slot and positions are settled law. He didn't know how to build a team beyond losing and tanking seasons. But it's hard to screw up as royally as Randy Smith did.

Edited June 26 by kdog

[CMU97]

The best thing to happen during the Randy Smith era was Juan Gonzalez turning down his 8 year/ $140 million offer at the start of the 2000 season. Terrible decision by Juan, great for the Tigers. 2nd best move was trading Greg Gohr for Damion Easley. But then he gave Easley a big contract extension and we ended up eating most of that. None of his other moves really came out to the Tigers' advantage. Terrible GM. 

[Tenacious D]

Trading Skubal, without knowing what you’d get in return, doesn’t signal anything.  Most casual fans, which comprise the majority, would not care about it after a week, if at all.  Sure Tigers Twitter might freak out, but who cares.

Here’s a few realities:

-A starting pitcher can only impact 20% of the games a team plays.

-They are prone to injury.

-Skubal is only controlled for two more seasons and has Boras as his agent.  He will become a free agent.

-He strikes me as someone competitive who will place a premium on a winning culture (admittedly a guess here).

-There is a strong likelihood that he will be on a different team in 2027.

So how does trading him set this team back 5 years, if he’s likely gone in 3?

I personally like having him on the team, but given all of the deficiencies we have throughout the organization, if he nets a haul from a team who is thinking playoffs and has depth to move, we’d need to be receptive.  He’s not a distressed player, so absolutely no reason to give him away, but trading him would also not doom this organization long term.  If done properly, it might actually accelerate our competitiveness.

 

 

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Trading Skubal, without knowing what you’d get in return, doesn’t signal anything.  Most casual fans, which comprise the majority, would not care about it after a week, if at all.  Sure Tigers Twitter might freak out, but who cares.

Here’s a few realities:

-A starting pitcher can only impact 20% of the games a team plays.

-They are prone to injury.

-Skubal is only controlled for two more seasons and has Boras as his agent.  He will become a free agent.

-He strikes me as someone competitive who will place a premium on a winning culture (admittedly a guess here).

-There is a strong likelihood that he will be on a different team in 2027.

So how does trading him set this team back 5 years, if he’s likely gone in 3?

I personally like having him on the team, but given all of the deficiencies we have throughout the organization, if he nets a haul from a team who is thinking playoffs and has depth to move, we’d need to be receptive.  He’s not a distressed player, so absolutely no reason to give him away, but trading him would also not doom this organization long term.  If done properly, it might actually accelerate our competitiveness.

 

 

You can trade Skubal but it has to be for established young MLB players. There is *no* prospect plate that returns equal value for a likely Cy Young winner. None.
 

I would also argue the idea that a pitcher is less valuable because his doesn't play everyday. A good starting pitcher affects the games he is in with a very high total percentage impact on the outcome.. He has far more than 5x effect the effect of a hitter has in the games he appears, so he affects win totals just as much or more.

Edited June 26 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

36 minutes ago, kdog said:

One thing on Avila...baseball conventional wisdow has improved. Nobody is taking a reliever 1-1 anymore. Basic valuations on draft slot and positions are settled law. He didn't know how to build a team beyond losing and tanking seasons. But it's hard to screw up as royally as Randy Smith did.

matt anderson career war: -0.6

spencer torkleson career war: -1.7

[RatkoVarda]

33 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Trading Skubal, without knowing what you’d get in return, doesn’t signal anything.

correct. Holliday, Basallo, Mayo and Kjerstad for Skubal would never be offered but that's a trade Harris should accept.

[kdog]

8 minutes ago, buddha said:

matt anderson career war: -0.6

spencer torkleson career war: -1.7

Like we said, Avila's entire process broke down once the draft pick was done. Smith's process broke down when we executed the draft pick.

[buddha]

randy smith was terrible.  al avila was also terrible.

differenr situations.  smith took over an aging mlb team but had some younger players in the system who turned out ok.  higginson, clark, weaver, justin thompson, rob fick!  

i dont think smith gets credit for any of them except maybe weaver (who was really just "ok") and fick (also just "ok").  he should rightly be criticized for the juan gone deal.

smith's team's came within a whisker of 500 a couple times.  better than "avila constructed" teama have ever done.  avila's only good season was a team he inherited from DD and the  proceeded to add jordan zimmerman to.

i come not to praise randy smith but to bury him.  but i'm burying him right next to the guy who traded away hall of famers for peanuts, signed jordan zimmerman to put the tigers over the top, and inked javy baez to a long term deal.

winning %

smith: 422

avila: 415 (not counting the covid season, which helps avila).

theyre both terrible.

[buddha]

16 minutes ago, kdog said:

Like we said, Avila's entire process broke down once the draft pick was done. Smith's process broke down when we executed the draft pick.

matt anderson was a god awful pick.  no denying that.  i waa actually surprised that tork has been that bad to even compare to anderson.

[kdog]

19 minutes ago, buddha said:

matt anderson was a god awful pick.  no denying that.  i waa actually surprised that tork has been that bad to even compare to anderson.

It's shocking...he would be fine if he was just average.

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, oblong said:

I’m willing to assume Avila made some foundational improvements to the front office in terms of systems and hirings that didn’t manifest into success at the ML level but were still useful. 

With spotty success at best. There were a couple key hires he can take credit for—A.J., Chris Fetter, Ryan Garko—but the majority of people working in the system now were hired by these same guys or by the Harris front office.

People also give Avila success for the team going into analytics, but I reasonably wonder whether it was all window dressing, as I more or less state in my BYB article here from over six years ago. If it was an actual investment, we got nothing out of it while he remained here, as we can see from the vast majority of trades and signings he made. And the data science we are taking advantage of now came in after he left.