LongLiveMaroth Posted July 18 Author Share Posted July 18 3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: I don't think Sale had 2.5 years of cheap control left when the White Sox traded him to Boston. I would say no. I think Skubal will generate a better return package... at least a little bit better... I mean cheapish, you won't find a perfect 1:1 but I would say this is close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) 15 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said: Would the last comparable trade be Sale to Boston in 2016 for a Skubal comparison? Moncada was #2 and Kopech was top 20 and there were two fliers along with that. by the WAR totals that's a pretty even trade - about 20 WAR on each side, but I'd still rather have had Sale than Moncada and Kopech - the later is running sub replacement. Moncada has had 2 good seasons out of 8. Hard to argue that Chi wasn't a loser in that deal despite the WAR equivalence. Edited July 18 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Sale’s salary was higher than Skubal’s, so that should be factored in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 4 hours ago, Tigermojo said: Skubal has been great but not as great as Soto was at the time of the trade. Juan Soto is also a modern day Ironman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 37 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: Holliday has to be in the deal. End of story. This right here. We have a gaping hole to close in the middle of the dirt and Holliday could do that starting next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 30 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: I’m not sure using the Juan Soto trade to the Padres as a point of comparison. The Padres GM operates like he’s in last place in an OOTP league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 In any event, first things first: there is no deal getting done until we figure out whether the run the Tigers on can go through the rest of the month. If the Tigers go 7-4 or better by the deadline, they are a .500+ team, and trading key pieces, in particular the top of your staff, would be a hard sell to the manager, the guys, and the fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 32 minutes ago, chasfh said: In any event, first things first: there is no deal getting done until we figure out whether the run the Tigers on can go through the rest of the month. If the Tigers go 7-4 or better by the deadline, they are a .500+ team, and trading key pieces, in particular the top of your staff, would be a hard sell to the manager, the guys, and the fans. Maybe, but Harris doesn’t strike me as the type who cares. I would suspect that Hinch would be involved in any decision. Fans forget. The clubhouse could be an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 On 7/15/2024 at 3:51 PM, romad1 said: QO draft pick wouldn't hurt. Just gaming this out. Next year is a Comp A pick, and some bonus odds in the lottery due to Oakland and Chicago not being eligible. It could be a lucrative draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 7 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Maybe, but Harris doesn’t strike me as the type who cares. I would suspect that Hinch would be involved in any decision. Fans forget. The clubhouse could be an issue. I don’t think that’s true. I’d think Harris understands what the impact of a trade of prime assets would be on the team and the city. Harris would definitely brief Hinch beforehand but I don’t think Hinch would get much more than “how about this guy” consideration. I don’t believe Hinch would offer up candidates or get veto power or anything like that. The clubhouse would definitely be an issue, unless you believe they don’t care as well. I think a marginal number of fans would peel off if they thought the Tigers were selling off stars indiscriminately. We here are the very rare fans who would understand the efficacies of that kind of moves. We’re a tiny minority when it comes to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor City Sonics Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 With Skubal or Flaherty - set the bar high. Ask the other teams about players you really want. Give them a list. If they don't counter with one of those players - just don't make the deal. Don't trade for Jose King, Sergio Alcantara and Dawel Lugo out of desperation. You do that and you'll never get a legit offer from another team again. So you might lose Flaherty for nothing, but I'd rather see that than picking up 2 or 3 stiffs. With Skubal it better be a Godfather offer. Al Avila was a sucker. Other GMs probably told their assistants "Hey, I don't care if I am in mid-surgery, if Al Avila calls, stop the surgery and wake me up.........." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmitch55 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 7 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: This link works up a Skubal trade to 3 targets (using their logic): https://tigersmlreport.com/2024/07/08/what-a-tarik-skubal-trade-would-look-like/ To the Orioles for Basallo, Kjerstad, Jackson Baumeister, and Leandro Arias. Your thoughts? Al Avila would make this trade. That's it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 6 hours ago, Timmitch55 said: Al Avila would make this trade. That's it! Exactly. Well, minus Basallo and Kjerstad, but otherwise, yeah. In fact, Skubal for Baumeister and Arias at 3:59pm on draft day would be the platonic ideal of an Avila deadline trade, since Baumeister can’t stop walking guys and Arias can’t hit or play D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 12 hours ago, chasfh said: In any event, first things first: there is no deal getting done until we figure out whether the run the Tigers on can go through the rest of the month. If the Tigers go 7-4 or better by the deadline, they are a .500+ team, and trading key pieces, in particular the top of your staff, would be a hard sell to the manager, the guys, and the fans. I would take this a couple steps further: I would wager that Harris and Hinch are shooting for a playoff run next year, as well as this year. Meaning... I don't think Skubal gets traded... UNLESS: (A) We are just overwhelmed with a package. The Offers-Lite that Greg Pappas wants to get away with (no offense GP) aren't going to do it. At all. It's going to have to be a huge package and (1) Harris is going to have to want it, and love it. And (2) Then he'll have to explain it to everyone. EVEN: (B) I think even if we crap out at 0-11 by the deadline that he STILL won't trade Skubal, unless it's an (A) Overwhelming package. Which goes back to my first statement that NEXT year's attempt at a playoff run is just as important as this year's attempt. And I think that starts with Skubal-Olson-Maeda (if he can fix himself) at the top with fill-in the last two spots. If Skubal is traded, that makes next year that much harder... but not completely out of the picture. But Harris would need to really explain his "big picture". I think I stated this elsewhere: I don't think Skubal gets traded. But... Maybe, if we get a Godfather offer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdog Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 12 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said: With Skubal or Flaherty - set the bar high. Ask the other teams about players you really want. Give them a list. If they don't counter with one of those players - just don't make the deal. Don't trade for Jose King, Sergio Alcantara and Dawel Lugo out of desperation. You do that and you'll never get a legit offer from another team again. So you might lose Flaherty for nothing, but I'd rather see that than picking up 2 or 3 stiffs. With Skubal it better be a Godfather offer. Al Avila was a sucker. Other GMs probably told their assistants "Hey, I don't care if I am in mid-surgery, if Al Avila calls, stop the surgery and wake me up.........." Another issue is that he set the bar so high on trades that he never made them(Matthew Boyd, etc). The ability to gin up a trade market and get good value is part of the job. Avila could not do it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Holliday and Norby or Mayo or bust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 a reminder for the "you're asking for too much" crowd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 1 hour ago, kdog said: Another issue is that he set the bar so high on trades that he never made them(Matthew Boyd, etc). The ability to gin up a trade market and get good value is part of the job. Avila could not do it. Well... He did... Olson, Candelario & Paredes, SGL... But it was on a "minor-trade" basis... not on the "BIG" trades. I think he got burned on JV and JD and then became too scared to try anything too big because it was too much for him. So he stuck with minor trades and... I think he did OK there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 6 minutes ago, Shinzaki said: Holliday and Norby or Mayo or bust I actually prefer Mayo & Basallo... I don't know why... But there it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I'm just glad there's a lot of buzz. A week ago I woulda put a trade at 20% of happening. Now I'm at least up to 40%. (I'm in the trade Skubal crowd btw, just don't think it will actually happen..... [at this point]). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Pappas Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 20 hours ago, 1984Echoes said: This link works up a Skubal trade to 3 targets (using their logic): https://tigersmlreport.com/2024/07/08/what-a-tarik-skubal-trade-would-look-like/ To the Orioles for Basallo, Kjerstad, Jackson Baumeister, and Leandro Arias. Your thoughts? You know, anything is possible. What I think could be and what actually could be may be very different things. I don't believe Elias would deal Holliday to Detroit for Skubal, but maybe it is within the realm of possibilities. I'd be surprised if Basallo AND Kjerstad were both dealt for a great starter, but one with injury concerns. But then again, I may be wrong. Elias LOVES his prospects, as does everyone else, but at some point he'll need to move the needle. I'll run this trade proposal by the Orioles Hangout posters and get their take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 21 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said: You know, anything is possible. What I think could be and what actually could be may be very different things. I don't believe Elias would deal Holliday to Detroit for Skubal, but maybe it is within the realm of possibilities. I'd be surprised if Basallo AND Kjerstad were both dealt for a great starter, but one with injury concerns. But then again, I may be wrong. Elias LOVES his prospects, as does everyone else, but at some point he'll need to move the needle. I'll run this trade proposal by the Orioles Hangout posters and get their take. Sad part is you guys don't have space for all these guys. You can move a lot of these pieces and still be able to fill them with other prospects. Let alone sign a FA to fill a hole. The talent level in the O's organization minors is envious. Amazing job but now you have too much prospect capital in your books.... Great problem to have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 33 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said: You know, anything is possible. What I think could be and what actually could be may be very different things. I don't believe Elias would deal Holliday to Detroit for Skubal, but maybe it is within the realm of possibilities. I'd be surprised if Basallo AND Kjerstad were both dealt for a great starter, but one with injury concerns. But then again, I may be wrong. Elias LOVES his prospects, as does everyone else, but at some point he'll need to move the needle. I'll run this trade proposal by the Orioles Hangout posters and get their take. Elias is the best talent evaluator in the game in my opinion who does love his "prospects" and is the opposite of Dave Dombrowski who has multiple championships. This is a new bridge for Elias to cross and I wonder if the new owner won't encourage him somewhat. He will find new talent but he night miss an opportunity being too cautious as well. I "think" Holiday is the easiest of all his pieces to trade since Gunner is the best shortstop in the game and Westbrook has second covered already at an all star level. Ditto with Bassillo and Rutchman at catcher. Holiday and Basslio plus for Skubal as the "guts" of a deal just makes sense. My opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 40 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said: I'll run this trade proposal by the Orioles Hangout posters and get their take. “This is a long piece, and we could’ve made it twice as long. But hopefully you get the point. The Detroit Tigers could trade Tarik Skubal at this year’s deadline and get an interesting prospect package. But they’ll be losing the best player in every possible deal. They are probably better off trying to build a proper offense and bullpen in free agency and making another run at the playoffs in 2025. And if it doesn’t work out next year, they can still trade him before 2026 and get a strong return.” —————————————————- This is the best option in my opinion. If Harris buzzes my number I’ll tell him so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Pappas Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 31 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said: Sad part is you guys don't have space for all these guys. You can move a lot of these pieces and still be able to fill them with other prospects. Let alone sign a FA to fill a hole. The talent level in the O's organization minors is envious. Amazing job but now you have too much prospect capital in your books.... Great problem to have. It is a great problem to have, no doubt. Basallo will be ready as soon as late next season, so he can backup Rutschman and play 1B/DH. Holliday will likely return this season, but I've been hoping they'll start grooming him to take over CF next season. That way Westburg plays 2B and Mayo 3B. Kjerstad is slotted in to start in RF next year as Santander is a FA at year's end. We have room, but our manager, Brandon Hyde, has been hesitant to move on from vets, though that will resolve itself next season. Mullins and Hays may also not return, though we have control for another season for each. So much to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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