2024 Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Even were we to sneak into the playoffs, which is far less than 50-50 even now, we're not winning the postseason crapshoot against the Orioles-Yankees-Indians-Dodgers-Phillies-Brewers with a gimpy rotation, a bullpen without a shutdown back end, and a flaky decimated offense made up of inexperienced young guys and stopgap veterans and Javier Baez. Failing to strike while the iron is hot in exchange for a puncher's chance of sneaking into the third playoff shot would be executive malpractice.

I don't agree.  If they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean that they they were healthy and strong going into the post season.  

[chasfh]

54 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I haven’t done the research myself, but I’ve seen it on other baseball websites that Baez’ current OPS is the lowest in modern history by a qualified player.

 

Even if he was among the best defensive SS ever to play the game, that offensive production isn’t worth it.  Give me Deivi Cruz all day over that.

I do the research so you don't have to:

Javy is not in this table because he is not qualified, but if he were, his 27 OPS+ would place him sixth on the list, behind two Bill Bergens, and immediately ahead of four more Bill Bergens.

Notable other qualified hitters with historically awful OPS+s are Neifi Perez (2002 KCR, 51st with a 44 OPS+), Clint Barmes (2006 COL, 69Th with a 47 OPS+), and Chris Davis (2018 BAL, 84th with a 49 OPS+).

One other name that leapt out at me was Ozzie Smith, 1979 SDP, who had a 48 OPS+ in 649 PAs, but still had a 1.6 WAR that season.

And check out who comes in at #40!

[chasfh]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't agree.  If they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean that they they were healthy and strong going into the post season.  

Fair assumption, but still only probably, not absolutely.

[theroundsquare]

23 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Why does The Athletic employ Jim Bowden?

Old habits die hard.  I will say that, at least in a few offseasons that I recall, Bowden has been pretty good at forecasting free agent contracts

[monkeytargets39]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I do the research so you don't have to:

Javy is not in this table because he is not qualified, but if he were, his 27 OPS+ would place him sixth on the list, behind two Bill Bergens, and immediately ahead of four more Bill Bergens.

Notable other qualified hitters with historically awful OPS+s are Neifi Perez (2002 KCR, 51st with a 44 OPS+), Clint Barmes (2006 COL, 69Th with a 47 OPS+), and Chris Davis (2018 BAL, 84th with a 49 OPS+).

One other name that leapt out at me was Ozzie Smith, 1979 SDP, who had a 48 OPS+ in 649 PAs, but still had a 1.6 WAR that season.

And check out who comes in at #40!

Do you think Boston would trade the rights to Rabbit Warstler for Joey Wentz?

[Greg Pappas]

I'm curious, in all seriousness (as if we should take this as a serious thing 😛 ) what you would legitimately want from the O's for Skubal.  The hour is getting late, and we are a team in need.  Skubal's not the only starter in town, but may be the best available, despite his injury risks and prior innings pitched totals.

Thanks in advance.

[RatkoVarda]

37 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Why does The Athletic employ Jim Bowden?

because no one else will and we don't want him homeless.

I used to find him annoying, but if you don't take him seriously, I think his schtick is sometimes entertaining

[LongLiveMaroth]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm curious, in all seriousness (as if we should take this as a serious thing 😛 ) what you would legitimately want from the O's for Skubal.  The hour is getting late, and we are a team in need.  Skubal's not the only starter in town, but may be the best available, despite his injury risks and prior innings pitched totals.

Thanks in advance.

Using baseballtradevalues.com numbers
Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Cade Povich(13.5), Connor Norby (9.9), McDermott (11.7) Total: 115.5
Orioles: Skubal (105.9)

There is a slight overpay but not egregious. Detroit gets 2 arms ready to slot into the rotation and their SS of the future and a solid bat in Norby.

[Shinzaki]

47 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Why does The Athletic employ Jim Bowden?

He has compromising photos of everyone above him?

[RatkoVarda]

Holliday-Basallo-Mayo for Skubal-Flaherty

[chasfh]

15 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm curious, in all seriousness (as if we should take this as a serious thing 😛 ) what you would legitimately want from the O's for Skubal.  The hour is getting late, and we are a team in need.  Skubal's not the only starter in town, but may be the best available, despite his injury risks and prior innings pitched totals.

Thanks in advance.

A couple weeks ago I offered you Skubal and Parker Meadows in exchange for Holliday, Basallo, one of Haskin, Fabian, or Rhodes, and a pitching lottery ticket like Strowd, Gillies, McGough, Hoffman, or Armbruester. I see no reason to move off that now, although I'd be willing to discuss trading off Basallo for a major-league ready arm like Brandon Young.

Can somebody run this through baseballtradevalues? I don't subscribe.

[LongLiveMaroth]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

A couple weeks ago I offered you Skubal and Parker Meadows in exchange for Holliday, Basallo, one of Haskin, Fabian, or Rhodes, and a pitching lottery ticket like Strowd, Gillies, McGough, Hoffman, or Armbruester. I see no reason to move off that now, although I'd be willing to discuss trading off Basallo for a major-league ready arm like Brandon Young.

Can somebody run this through baseballtradevalues? I don't subscribe.

Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Basallo(62.2), Haskins (1), Armbruster(1.8) Total: 145.4
Orioles: Skubal (105.9), Meadows (10) Total 115.9

(I don't have one either just pulled the values from the trade board.)

[ewsieg]

57 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't agree.  If they DID make the playoffs it would probably mean that they they were healthy and strong going into the post season.  

Doubt we're making it and doubt we would win it all if we did, but if we did make it, we're doing it on the backs of Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson.  It's obviously a team game and that's why we wouldn't be favored, but no other team would be excited to deal with that.

[ewsieg]

3 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Basallo(62.2), Haskins (1), Armbruster(1.8) Total: 145.4
Orioles: Skubal (105.9), Meadows (10) Total 115.9

(I don't have one either just pulled the values from the trade board.)

Wish I can remember the quote and who said it (heard it on 97.1), but Harris should trade Skubal only if its impossible for him to say no, not just a hard to say no offer.     I think the above is a hard to say no proposal.  

[1984Echoes]

PS: (or FYI, whichever floats...):

I'm heading out this afternoon for a family reunion near Munising (cabins right on the beach of Lake Superior) and that means 20+ cousins (and assorted aunts/ uncles and a plethora of munchkins running around as well) which will keep me busy and hard to keep up with both what's going on at/ near the deadline and all this discussion. Won't be back until Sunday August 4th so I'll miss MOST of the commotion! Oh, and tomorrow before I take off for Munising (I'll be halfway there in Ohio, from Jersey...) I'm going to the National Baseball Card (actually, "Sports") Convention in Cleveland. Gonna be a WILD ONE!!!

And I know you will miss me SOOO MUCH!!!

😁

So have a great time... I know I will!

 

[Tiger337]

14 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Doubt we're making it and doubt we would win it all if we did, but if we did make it, we're doing it on the backs of Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson.  It's obviously a team game and that's why we wouldn't be favored, but no other team would be excited to deal with that.

I doubt they would win it all if they made it because only 1 of 12 teams wins it all. so that's an 8% chance all being equal.  It might be slightly less for them (perhaps 5% or 6%) because are an inferior team.  The best team might have a 12% chance, but I think people overate the difference in chances between the best and worst playoff teams.  At the very least, there is a strong possibility that a wildcard team could win a round or two, which is is not the ultimate goal but pretty exciting.  

I highly doubt the Tigers will make the playoffs.  I just don't want to justify trading talent because they couldn't win the playoffs even if they made it.  They should trade veterans if the don't think they can get to the playoffs.   

Edited July 25 by Tiger337

[1984Echoes]

40 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Using baseballtradevalues.com numbers
Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Cade Povich(13.5), Connor Norby (9.9), McDermott (11.7) Total: 115.5
Orioles: Skubal (105.9)

There is a slight overpay but not egregious. Detroit gets 2 arms ready to slot into the rotation and their SS of the future and a solid bat in Norby.

Well, just for completeness: How does Bowden's trade work out?

If possible, try it his way and then also mine:

Bowden: Mayo, Kjerstad, Povich.

84: Mayo, Kjerstad, Povich, Cam Weston.

[LongLiveMaroth]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Well, just for completeness: How does Bowden's trade work out?

If possible, try it his way and then also mine:

Bowden: Mayo, Kjerstad, Povich.

84: Mayo, Kjerstad, Povich, Cam Weston.

Bowden: Mayo(55.2), Kjerstad(34), Povich(13.5) (102.7) Advantage O's 

84: Mayo(55.2), Kjerstad(34), Povich(13.5) Cam Weston(No one has used him on a trade on that site so I can't say for sure but my guess would be a 1-2 based on others so we will say 2.0) 104.7 Almost even.

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Basallo(62.2), Haskins (1), Armbruster(1.8) Total: 145.4
Orioles: Skubal (105.9), Meadows (10) Total 115.9

(I don't have one either just pulled the values from the trade board.)

OK, so, two things: (1) those numbers are general estimates and not results, which obviously you know; and (2) Holliday and Basallo have still done nothing in the majors and are certainly not guaranteed to, whereas Skubal is Cy Young right now and is ready to lead a playoff rotation right now, even over Corbin Burnes, and not by a little.

So yes, the numbers from this trade value thingamabob favor the Tigers' return over that of the Orioles, but the key difference is that the numbers assigned to Skubal are based on current reality, whereas the numbers assigned to the Orioles players are all based on speculation—with good reason, I acknowledge, but still, speculation.

And remember, even losing all these players, especially the top two, the Orioles still have their positions covered for years and years, whereas our rotation would be shattered until at least next year, and perhaps beyond. Trading Skubal will definitely hurt the Tigers much more in the short term (perhaps the next 12 months) than the Orioles, and if the Orioles would never trade them under any circumstances, then they are to all appearances just trying to run up the score, same way (sorry for this but) Trump thought he would run up the score by choosing Vance as his VP (again, sorry for that, but I mention it only because of how apt the comparison is.)

IOW: if the Orioles would not trade these players, who may not even pan out, for the best pitcher in the game right now, at a time they need him most, in favor of keeping their players around for, I don't know, just in case, I guess? And they won't even have room for these players for years anyway—then just what exactly are they trying to accomplish here?

This is a good trade for both teams, and I don't think the Tigers should take any less than this. I personally would bless it, and honestly, I don't think the Orioles would have to think very long about it before they accept it as well.

[SoCalTiger]

2 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I dunno. If they got Kjersted, Mayo and Povich the lineup late next year/going into 26 could look like

1. - Clark CF
2. Kjersted LF
3. Greene - RF
4. Mayo - 3B
5. Jung - 2B
6 - Carpenter 1B
7. McGonigle  SS/FA to hold over for Rainer
8. Dingler
9. DH (FA) (maybe Tork figures it out)

This doesn't even include anyone we sign outside of our organization. In the offseason, offer Burnes and Flaherty to Resign.

Burnes
Jobe
Flaherty
Olson
Mize (?)

 

Bullpen

That my friends is a playoff team. Ahh one can dream..... 

 

Ok back to reality.....

There are doubts Mayo can play third base. The Orioles see him as their next first baseman so alone kills the deal for me.

[monkeytargets39]

I don’t think trying to get a close or even trade value through a computer model is the goal here.  Skubal is a known quantity and value right now.  Everyone else is a projected value.  I want more in return of projected value than what Skubal is physically giving right now.

 

All it takes is for one of those prospects to get hurt badly or flame out for it to be a massive W for the Orioles.  We have to get a good sized perceived value advantage in order to do the deal.

[SoCalTiger]

Assuming Elias will not trade Holiday and therefore we have no deal with Baltimore for Skubal I would like to float out the following options and see what you folks think :

1.  Flaherty to Baltimore for Dylan Beavers OF or  Connor Norby 2B prefer Beavers

2. Flaherty to Philly for Aiden Miller SS or Starlyn Caba SS- prefer Miller

3.Flaherty to Yankees for Roderick Arias SS

4. Flaherty to Arizona for Tommy Troy SS

5. Flaherty to LA for Dalton Rushing C - my favorite trade for Captain Jack

6. Skubal - San Diego for Ethan Salas -C and Leodalis De Vries SS

 

[Sports_Freak]

26 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I don’t think trying to get a close or even trade value through a computer model is the goal here.  Skubal is a known quantity and value right now.  Everyone else is a projected value.  I want more in return of projected value than what Skubal is physically giving right now.

 

All it takes is for one of those prospects to get hurt badly or flame out for it to be a massive W for the Orioles.  We have to get a good sized perceived value advantage in order to do the deal.

Kinda like the JV trade? All the Tigers ended up with is Jake Rogers and a huge payroll reduction. 

[1984Echoes]

I don't think it's a 1-for-1 with Flaherty even if you've listed a headliner prospect. IMO, I think at a bare minimum it's 2-1 or 3-1.

As for Rushing, I think scouting reports are he's not a great catcher, so short-side or backup catcher, plus a lot of 1B risk... but IMO, still a useful guy. But he's taking short games at catcher (20-30 per year) with a dominant catcher (let's call him Dingler) and then you're plugging him in at sometimes 1B, DH, PH'er... So he's limited IMO, but still very useful in spots, especially with the bat. IOW: It's the bat that's being traded for, not him as a starting catcher.

That says: Who else is included? Per my 3-1 trade... I would jump at a Rushing + Freeland + Jackson Ferris package (RatkoVarda proposal...). 

[AlaskanTigersFan]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

I don't think it's a 1-for-1 with Flaherty even if you've listed a headliner prospect. IMO, I think at a bare minimum it's 2-1 or 3-1.

As for Rushing, I think scouting reports are he's not a great catcher, so short-side or backup catcher, plus a lot of 1B risk... but IMO, still a useful guy. But he's taking short games at catcher (20-30 per year) with a dominant catcher (let's call him Dingler) and then you're plugging him in at sometimes 1B, DH, PH'er... So he's limited IMO, but still very useful in spots, especially with the bat. IOW: It's the bat that's being traded for, not him as a starting catcher.

That says: Who else is included? Per my 3-1 trade... I would jump at a Rushing + Freeland + Jackson Ferris package (RatkoVarda proposal...). 

I don't think Rushing is going to be a "superstar" though. We need guys that have a chance at being a superstar. Kjerstad and Mayo have the .900+ ops type to carry teams if they "hit" so to speak as prospects. We need stud level. I don't think Rushing, Freeland or Jackson Ferris offer that type of upside.