2024 Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion

[Sports_Freak]

35 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Skubal is Cy Young right now and is ready to lead a playoff rotation right now, even over Corbin Burnes, and not by a little.

Look up Burnes, he's much closer to Skubal than you think. I would say Skubal is better, but just a little. Burnes pitches in a much tougher division and has more than held his own.

The only way the Tigers should even listen to offers for Skubal is if some team wants him SO badly, they're willing to WAY overpay. The Tigs hold all the cards, we don't have to trade him (yet). But yeah, his value right now is at its highest.

[monkeytargets39]

1 minute ago, Sports_Freak said:

Kinda like the JV trade? All the Tigers ended up with is Jake Rogers and a huge payroll reduction. 

Well with JV we knew our competitive window was closing and a rebuild would be imminent.  JV also had some injury issues and had a year or two of declined performance (by his standards).  Even at the time I was underwhelmed with the return.  None of it was major league ready.
 

With Skubal, this is a guy who is young, cost controlled for years, still improving, and we are (hopefully) at the beginning part of a competitive window.  So the value of Skubal to us and the stakes of not getting a gigantic return for him are especially high.

[monkeytargets39]

7 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I don't think Rushing is going to be a "superstar" though. We need guys that have a chance at being a superstar. Kjerstad and Mayo have the .900+ ops type to carry teams if they "hit" so to speak as prospects. We need stud level. I don't think Rushing, Freeland or Jackson Ferris offer that type of upside.

I don’t think we are getting a superstar caliber return for half a season of Jack Flaherty though.  An above average major league level position prospect is probably the ceiling here unless we add more going out with him.  Flaherty is a great get for a contender, but everyone knows the contract situation and our position as a team needing to move him to bolster our future.  We have leverage here, but nothing close to the leverage for trading Skubal. 

[Sports_Freak]

2 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Well with JV we knew our competitive window was closing and a rebuild would be imminent.  JV also had some injury issues and had a year or two of declined performance (by his standards).  Even at the time I was underwhelmed with the return.  None of it was major league ready.
 

With Skubal, this is a guy who is young, cost controlled for years, still improving, and we are (hopefully) at the beginning part of a competitive window.  So the value of Skubal to us and the stakes of not getting a gigantic return for him are especially high.

Agreed. Like I said, if some team wants him, they'll need to overpay, big time. At least, IMO. LH #1 pitchers don't grow on trees. So I would want at least 2 major league ready position players, a minor league prospect and a couple AA SP prospects. It would have to be a package that's impossible to refuse, not a points close trade 

[Longgone]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Why does The Athletic employ Jim Bowden?

How did a major league club ever employ him as their GM? Or Dan O’Dowd for that matter. 

[1984Echoes]

39 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

I don't think Rushing is going to be a "superstar" though. We need guys that have a chance at being a superstar. Kjerstad and Mayo have the .900+ ops type to carry teams if they "hit" so to speak as prospects....

I don't think you get that for Flaherty though. Those guys you're getting with a Skubal trade.

 

39 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

... I don't think Rushing, Freeland or Jackson Ferris offer that type of upside.

I think that's the "best" we're going to get with Flaherty.

If you think we can get more than that... a potential "superstar" for Flaherty per your example... Who is it that you think we can get for him that would fit that description? Remember, he's a "rental" only.

[Greg Pappas]

2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Using baseballtradevalues.com numbers
Tigers: Jackson Holliday(80.4), Cade Povich(13.5), Connor Norby (9.9), McDermott (11.7) Total: 115.5
Orioles: Skubal (105.9)

There is a slight overpay but not egregious. Detroit gets 2 arms ready to slot into the rotation and their SS of the future and a solid bat in Norby.

I'm on that site and appreciate the work they put into it, though, as they themselves admit, it's just a best guess.  If you just took away Norby, that would make it super close in value.  Naturally, many feel the O's would not trade Holliday, but as I've repeated, one never knows.

[Greg Pappas]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

A couple weeks ago I offered you Skubal and Parker Meadows in exchange for Holliday, Basallo, one of Haskin, Fabian, or Rhodes, and a pitching lottery ticket like Strowd, Gillies, McGough, Hoffman, or Armbruester. I see no reason to move off that now, although I'd be willing to discuss trading off Basallo for a major-league ready arm like Brandon Young.

Can somebody run this through baseballtradevalues? I don't subscribe.

We wouldn't need Meadows in return, but essentially Holliday, Brandon Young, Strowd, and Rhodes (or Fabian) would do it for you?

[Tenacious D]

I like when members of team message boards negotiate deals directly.  Who needs front offices, when the fans can handle this?

[Nate7474]

18 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

We wouldn't need Meadows in return, but essentially Holliday, Brandon Young, Strowd, and Rhodes (or Fabian) would do it for you?

I’m not who you asked but for me it would be something close to this that would make me consider it.

Holliday, Povich, Young, Fabian 

[monkeytargets39]

43 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I like when members of team message boards negotiate deals directly.  Who needs front offices, when the fans can handle this?

Sarcasm aside, I guarantee we outperform Al Avila

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

OK, so, two things: (1) those numbers are general estimates and not results, which obviously you know; and (2) Holliday and Basallo have still done nothing in the majors and are certainly not guaranteed to, whereas Skubal is Cy Young right now and is ready to lead a playoff rotation right now, even over Corbin Burnes, and not by a little.

So yes, the numbers from this trade value thingamabob favor the Tigers' return over that of the Orioles, but the key difference is that the numbers assigned to Skubal are based on current reality, whereas the numbers assigned to the Orioles players are all based on speculation—with good reason, I acknowledge, but still, speculation.

And remember, even losing all these players, especially the top two, the Orioles still have their positions covered for years and years, whereas our rotation would be shattered until at least next year, and perhaps beyond. Trading Skubal will definitely hurt the Tigers much more in the short term (perhaps the next 12 months) than the Orioles, and if the Orioles would never trade them under any circumstances, then they are to all appearances just trying to run up the score, same way (sorry for this but) Trump thought he would run up the score by choosing Vance as his VP (again, sorry for that, but I mention it only because of how apt the comparison is.)

IOW: if the Orioles would not trade these players, who may not even pan out, for the best pitcher in the game right now, at a time they need him most, in favor of keeping their players around for, I don't know, just in case, I guess? And they won't even have room for these players for years anyway—then just what exactly are they trying to accomplish here?

This is a good trade for both teams, and I don't think the Tigers should take any less than this. I personally would bless it, and honestly, I don't think the Orioles would have to think very long about it before they accept it as well.

So, to be clear, you're saying Skubal would be the CY Young winner if the season ended today?  If so, we agree, though it's pretty close.  But that's just it, the season doesn't end today.  You make a large point about speculation in regards to prospects, yet don't mention Skubal's performance (and health) moving forward as being speculative.  He's never thrown over 149.1 innings in his career, yet you are already declaring he's better than the proven Burnes, who has pitched at a Top Tier level for years AND you then say that it's not close?  Skubal's numbers are slightly better than Burnes at this time, as both have 20 starts, with Skubal's ERA at 2.34 v Burnes at 2.38 and Skubal's WHIP at 0.919 v Burnes at 1.043.  Burnes has actually won a Cy Young, received MVP votes, and been a 4x All Star.  It's speculative to imply Skubal is better and will continue to be better.  The truth is, Skubal v Burnes is not really important, but you brought it up. 

• Skubal has 2.4 years of control remaining.  That's a fact.
• Injuries have been an unfortunate reality for Skubal.  That is also a fact.
• He's been great thus far this season (fact) and looks like he's going to be great moving forward, if he remains healthy. That last part is speculative.
• Over the last four years Skubal has logged 149 IP, 118 IP, 80 IP, and 123 IP.  Those are facts. 
• I and most of the O's fanbase would love to acquire Skubal.  That's also a fact. 

Again, it's not fair to say these top tier prospects may not pan out, and then say that Skubal will.  There needs to be room to admit there is risk in these types of trades.   I sincerely hope that a fair deal can be had and that everyone wins. That usually means both fan bases feel they got robbed. LOL

[KL2]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Again, it's not fair to say these top tier prospects may not pan out, and then say that Skubal will.  

Prospects have how much ML time? Skubal has how much? I think skubal has proven he is a major league pitcher.

[monkeytargets39]

There’s risk for the Orioles too obviously, but they have the position player depth to absorb the hit if Skubal gets hurt or regresses heavily.  
 

If we dealt Skubal and don’t get multiple high value major leaguers in return, it stutters our rebuild—which has already stuttered multiple times since Mike Illitch passed away.  
 

Skubal isn’t even expensive, so if he does get hurt it’s not like you’re tied to a monster contract that would prevent you from signing starters in the future.

[SkyBlue]

6 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Prospects have how much ML time? Skubal has how much? I think skubal has proven he is a major league pitcher.

TBF, he is more talking about injury questions on Skubal not if he pans out as a major league pitcher.

In this day of high spin and everything else going on for pitchers I think you can say every pitcher has risk of injury.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Kinda like the JV trade? All the Tigers ended up with is Jake Rogers and a huge payroll reduction. 

Not even all that huge, since we apparently just had to give them $40 million as well to entice them to take Verlander off our hands.

[monkeytargets39]

10 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not even all that huge, since we apparently just had to give them $40 million as well to entice them to take Verlander off our hands.

Which was apparently spent on repeatedly putting hits out on Franklin Perez’s elbow

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Nate7474 said:

I’m not who you asked but for me it would be something close to this that would make me consider it.

Holliday, Povich, Young, Fabian 

That's not unreasonable.  I honestly would be shocked if Holliday were dealt, but it's not a ridiculous thing to see him included in these sort of proposals.  

[Sports_Freak]

18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not even all that huge, since we apparently just had to give them $40 million as well to entice them to take Verlander off our hands.

I didn't know that. Avila was fleeced, totally lopsided.

[Sports_Freak]

9 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Which was apparently spent on repeatedly putting hits out on Franklin Perez’s elbow

Perez was a "can't miss" prospect who...missed.

[chasfh]

22 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

So, to be clear, you're saying Skubal would be the CY Young winner if the season ended today?  If so, we agree, though it's pretty close.  But that's just it, the season doesn't end today.  You make a large point about speculation in regards to prospects, yet don't mention Skubal's performance (and health) moving forward as being speculative.  He's never thrown over 149.1 innings in his career, yet you are already declaring he's better than the proven Burnes, who has pitched at a Top Tier level for years AND you then say that it's not close?  Skubal's numbers are slightly better than Burnes at this time, as both have 20 starts, with Skubal's ERA at 2.34 v Burnes at 2.38 and Skubal's WHIP at 0.919 v Burnes at 1.043.  Burnes has actually won a Cy Young, received MVP votes, and been a 4x All Star.  It's speculative to imply Skubal is better and will continue to be better.  The truth is, Skubal v Burnes is not really important, but you brought it up. 

• Skubal has 2.4 years of control remaining.  That's a fact.
• Injuries have been an unfortunate reality for Skubal.  That is also a fact.
• He's been great thus far this season (fact) and looks like he's going to be great moving forward, if he remains healthy. That last part is speculative.
• Over the last four years Skubal has logged 149 IP, 118 IP, 80 IP, and 123 IP.  Those are facts. 
• I and most of the O's fanbase would love to acquire Skubal.  That's also a fact. 

Again, it's not fair to say these top tier prospects may not pan out, and then say that Skubal will.  There needs to be room to admit there is risk in these types of trades.   I sincerely hope that a fair deal can be had and that everyone wins. That usually means both fan bases feel they got robbed. LOL

I do think it’s fairer to say that we can expect Skubal to continue breathing fire every fifth day through the end of the year and then into November, while still saying whether Holliday and Basallo will rake in the majors is still speculative.

Burnes has been better than Skubal over the past seven years. That’s a fact. No dispute here. What I am saying is that Skubal is better in 2024, on practically every relevant metric, and that’s also a fact.

(Sorry, I couldn’t isolate just those two on iOS screenshot.)

Please note that I am not saying that Skubal is the greatest pitcher in history of the world and that Burnes is complete dog shït. Definitely not. They would, without no doubt, be 1-2 in your playoff rotation. I’m just asserting that Skubal would be that #1, and with 15 pitchers in between them on the list above, that it’s not particularly close. Now, in 2018 or 2021, Skubal’s not better. Burnes is. But then, you’re not trying to win in 2018 or 2021.

As for the injury thing—you’re right, and he does have 123 innings already on his wing this year, so that would be a legitimate reason to not do the deal, and that’s fine. There is no imperative here to liquidate Skubal. We’d be right chuffed to hang onto him and have him open for us in Los Angeles next March. But injury is a risk with any pitcher you pick up, and I’m not necessarily sold that Skubal is an abnormally higher injury risk than your other options, even with two surgeries on the elbow. But every trade harbors that risk, so caveat to the emptor.

But if I am right—if Skubal continues to mow down everyone crossing his path for the next three months—you might sorry to see him to land on one of the teams that runs the O’s out of the tournament. And that’s the risk of not trading for him.

All this said: I still put the odds of Skubal going anywhere at something less than 10%, because getting rid of what casual fans have heard is the best pitcher in the league pitching for our team in exchange for a bunch of guys they’ve never heard might be enough to drive those casual fans away from the Tigers for a long, long time. Go Lions!

 

[Edman85]

Skubal has 2.4 years of control. Burnes had 1 year of control.

[chasfh]

17 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Perez was a "can't miss" prospect who...missed.

I went back to remind myself of the prevailing opinion of Franklin Perez in places like Fangraphs, and everyone thought he was going to be a solid top half of the rotation guy, even though he was already hurt. But he just didn’t get any healthier in our system. Take from that what you will …

[AlaskanTigersFan]

So much talk with the Holliday trades.... Sorry, I just don't get it. Any deal that includes Holliday would pretty much be it. Are we basically willing to trade Skubal for Holliday? Any Add-ins from Baltimore side won't be super high end pieces.....

I'd rather NOT get Holliday and get a package involving two of Cowser, Kjersted, Besallo, Mayo and add in one of Povich, Norby, Mcdermet..... That's much better value than just trying to get basically one player.... We have too many long term holes to fill. 

[Sports_Freak]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I went back to remind myself of the prevailing opinion of Franklin Perez in places like Fangraphs, and everyone thought he was going to be a solid top half of the rotation guy, even though he was already hurt. But he just didn’t get any healthier in our system. Take from that what you will …

Meanwhile, JV threw a no-hitter, won a WS, and a Cy Young award. But at least the Tigers saved millions of dollars. By all means, trade Skubal for sime more of these highly regarded prospects. 🤔