Sports_Freak Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 33 minutes ago, chasfh said: This was fun to talk about, but in the end, I would be borderline shocked if we ended up trading Tarik Skubal this year. I would characterize the chances of that happening as low single-digits percent. This. Harris really doesn't seem like a risk taker. And trading Skubal without a impact player coming back would get him run outta town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 28 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: This. Harris really doesn't seem like a risk taker. And trading Skubal without an impact player coming back would get him run outta town. There are appropriate times to take risks. Designing a trade for your Cy Young candidate is not one of those times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Pappas Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Thank you for your thoughts, all, it's truly appreciated. If Skubal is dealt, wherever that may be, I hope you all are happy with the return. Take care. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Ken Rosenthal suggested the Tigers might be selling RP. I don't know, its tough to see much action for them given how things have gone after April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Skubal for Cowser/Kjerstad (either one) Basallo Mayo McDermott/Povich (either one) I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. Oh what a fun exercise 🙂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 I might do thst trade...thats a lot of prospects kn return and Skubal does have an injury hx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Paid content on mlbtraderumors so I can't read the whole thing but speculation about an extension for Skubal to buy out two arbitration years plus two free agent years for $100 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 48 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: Paid content on mlbtraderumors so I can't read the whole thing but speculation about an extension for Skubal to buy out two arbitration years plus two free agent years for $100 million. good for the Tigers dont know if its good for Skubal I would think hes looking at more on the open market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 1 hour ago, Tigermojo said: Paid content on mlbtraderumors so I can't read the whole thing but speculation about an extension for Skubal to buy out two arbitration years plus two free agent years for $100 million. That’s me. I’m Kevin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 21 hours ago, chasfh said: There are appropriate times to take risks. Designing a trade for your Cy Young candidate is not one of those times. Teams think they can get Skubal because of the contract he'll be getting. In 2 years. Seriously, if he's a free agent in 2027, we have his services for 2 more seasons. Do Tiger fans see us contending in the next 2 seasons? Trading him at the trade deadline in '26 won't bring as big of a return as right now. We could build a team around players he's dealt for. Maybe actually be serious contenders that much sooner. I hate to say or see it but a case can be made for trading him. At least listen to the best offers and see what's even offered for him. But any returns have to be MLB ready players, not prospects that flame out in 2 years. Quality over quantity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 41 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said: That’s me. I’m Kevin. Great question! Can you give us the full depth of the answer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 41 minutes ago, chasfh said: Great question! Can you give us the full depth of the answer? Thanks. Here sit is. I think this is ok coming from my email. Kevin asks: Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts? Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just “left arm fatigue.” He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal’s 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game’s best pitchers. This year, Skubal’s fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he’s at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery. Skubal is at 110 innings this year. His career-high was 149 1/3 innings in 2021, so he’ll reach that in about 6-7 more starts. The Tigers aren’t really a contender, and could be tempted to back off Skubal somewhat in the second half unless his pursuit of the Cy Young overpowers that. We are, of course, rooting against Skubal getting injured, but picking up this much velocity this quickly is often a double-edged sword. Skubal had Tommy John surgery during college (April of 2016), much like deGrom did. If you’re the Tigers considering investing long-term in Skubal, you have to put major effort into assessing his injury risk. I should note that I’ve peeked under the hood and seen the amount of work that goes into determining arbitration salaries, and it’s significant. While that makes me hesitant to make an off-the-cuff estimate for Skubal’s potential arbitration earnings, what the hell, I’ll do just that. Zac Gallen got a $4.4MM raise after his excellent 2023 season (as a 4+ service guy). If Skubal does the same, he’ll earn around $7MM in 2025. Corbin Burnes got a $5.6275MM raise after his excellent ’23 season (as a 5+ service guy). So maybe we’ll say Skubal could earn $13MM in 2026. By the “raise” argument, since Skubal is at just $2.65MM this year, he might be more in the $20MM range for his 2025-26 total. If he’s kind of able to just jump up and match the arb salary of a player who had a more accomplished career, then maybe he could get into Burnes’ $25MM range, but that’ll be for the agents, lawyers, and potential arbitration panel to decide. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Boras doesn’t always try to go to the mat on arbitration, so it’s possible Skubal will do a two-year deal similar to the one Matt Chapman did before free agency. Our MLB contract tracker has the 4+ starting pitcher contract record as deGrom’s four-year, $120.5MM extension signed in March 2019 (coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards). That’s with us subtracting out his already agreed-to 2019 arb salary, as is our custom. DeGrom being more of a late bloomer, that contract covered age 32-35. It also allowed deGrom to opt out after the third year (first free agent year), which of course he did. The biggest extensions for 5+ pitchers were for seven years: Clayton Kershaw ($215MM), Stephen Strasburg ($175MM), and Jose Berrios($131MM). All three of those had opt-outs as well. If Skubal keeps pitching like this and stays healthy, he’s over $200MM in free agency easily. But the risk mitigation approach would be to do a four-year deal with an opt-out after the third year, potentially only delaying his free agency by one year. Circling back to Kevin’s four-year, $100MM idea, that seems reasonable enough if an opt-out is included. You could perhaps view that as $20MM for his two arbitration years and $40MM for each free agent year (a bit less than Zach Wheeler’s $42MM). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 Insert Picard “Make it so” meme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: Thanks. Here sit is. I think this is ok coming from my email. Kevin asks: Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts? Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just “left arm fatigue.” He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal’s 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game’s best pitchers. This year, Skubal’s fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he’s at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery. Skubal is at 110 innings this year. His career-high was 149 1/3 innings in 2021, so he’ll reach that in about 6-7 more starts. The Tigers aren’t really a contender, and could be tempted to back off Skubal somewhat in the second half unless his pursuit of the Cy Young overpowers that. We are, of course, rooting against Skubal getting injured, but picking up this much velocity this quickly is often a double-edged sword. Skubal had Tommy John surgery during college (April of 2016), much like deGrom did. If you’re the Tigers considering investing long-term in Skubal, you have to put major effort into assessing his injury risk. I should note that I’ve peeked under the hood and seen the amount of work that goes into determining arbitration salaries, and it’s significant. While that makes me hesitant to make an off-the-cuff estimate for Skubal’s potential arbitration earnings, what the hell, I’ll do just that. Zac Gallen got a $4.4MM raise after his excellent 2023 season (as a 4+ service guy). If Skubal does the same, he’ll earn around $7MM in 2025. Corbin Burnes got a $5.6275MM raise after his excellent ’23 season (as a 5+ service guy). So maybe we’ll say Skubal could earn $13MM in 2026. By the “raise” argument, since Skubal is at just $2.65MM this year, he might be more in the $20MM range for his 2025-26 total. If he’s kind of able to just jump up and match the arb salary of a player who had a more accomplished career, then maybe he could get into Burnes’ $25MM range, but that’ll be for the agents, lawyers, and potential arbitration panel to decide. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Boras doesn’t always try to go to the mat on arbitration, so it’s possible Skubal will do a two-year deal similar to the one Matt Chapman did before free agency. Our MLB contract tracker has the 4+ starting pitcher contract record as deGrom’s four-year, $120.5MM extension signed in March 2019 (coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards). That’s with us subtracting out his already agreed-to 2019 arb salary, as is our custom. DeGrom being more of a late bloomer, that contract covered age 32-35. It also allowed deGrom to opt out after the third year (first free agent year), which of course he did. The biggest extensions for 5+ pitchers were for seven years: Clayton Kershaw ($215MM), Stephen Strasburg ($175MM), and Jose Berrios($131MM). All three of those had opt-outs as well. If Skubal keeps pitching like this and stays healthy, he’s over $200MM in free agency easily. But the risk mitigation approach would be to do a four-year deal with an opt-out after the third year, potentially only delaying his free agency by one year. Circling back to Kevin’s four-year, $100MM idea, that seems reasonable enough if an opt-out is included. You could perhaps view that as $20MM for his two arbitration years and $40MM for each free agent year (a bit less than Zach Wheeler’s $42MM). You are now famous. Thanks for the info. Most of the "core" is controllable for 4+ years. Mize and Skubal have two more years. Rogers three more years. I wonder if Harris is trying to extend any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 22 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: You are now famous. Thanks for the info. Most of the "core" is controllable for 4+ years. Mize and Skubal have two more years. Rogers three more years. I wonder if Harris is trying to extend any of them. Rogers is a hard no. Mize is maybe 50/50 at best. Skubal is a hard one. You could make the case that you don't want to be on the hook for six or eight years and his elbow blows up halfway through. Guys with his profile don't have good track records. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 2 hours ago, Tigermojo said: You are now famous. Thanks for the info. Most of the "core" is controllable for 4+ years. Mize and Skubal have two more years. Rogers three more years. I wonder if Harris is trying to extend any of them. Ha I’m famous only in my own imagination 😊 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 6-3 in July so far. 10-5 the next 15 games would make them a 500 team the day before the deadline. They will have to beat up Cleveland, Minnesota, LA and Toronto along the way. Can they do it? Buyers or sellers? 3rd highest team OPS in MLB in July but middle of the pack runs and OBP. Second in home runs, first in triples. Pitching is hanging in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 13 hours ago, SoCalTiger said: Thanks. Here sit is. I think this is ok coming from my email. Kevin asks: Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts? Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just “left arm fatigue.” He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal’s 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game’s best pitchers. This year, Skubal’s fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he’s at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery. Skubal is at 110 innings this year. His career-high was 149 1/3 innings in 2021, so he’ll reach that in about 6-7 more starts. The Tigers aren’t really a contender, and could be tempted to back off Skubal somewhat in the second half unless his pursuit of the Cy Young overpowers that. We are, of course, rooting against Skubal getting injured, but picking up this much velocity this quickly is often a double-edged sword. Skubal had Tommy John surgery during college (April of 2016), much like deGrom did. If you’re the Tigers considering investing long-term in Skubal, you have to put major effort into assessing his injury risk. I should note that I’ve peeked under the hood and seen the amount of work that goes into determining arbitration salaries, and it’s significant. While that makes me hesitant to make an off-the-cuff estimate for Skubal’s potential arbitration earnings, what the hell, I’ll do just that. Zac Gallen got a $4.4MM raise after his excellent 2023 season (as a 4+ service guy). If Skubal does the same, he’ll earn around $7MM in 2025. Corbin Burnes got a $5.6275MM raise after his excellent ’23 season (as a 5+ service guy). So maybe we’ll say Skubal could earn $13MM in 2026. By the “raise” argument, since Skubal is at just $2.65MM this year, he might be more in the $20MM range for his 2025-26 total. If he’s kind of able to just jump up and match the arb salary of a player who had a more accomplished career, then maybe he could get into Burnes’ $25MM range, but that’ll be for the agents, lawyers, and potential arbitration panel to decide. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that Boras doesn’t always try to go to the mat on arbitration, so it’s possible Skubal will do a two-year deal similar to the one Matt Chapman did before free agency. Our MLB contract tracker has the 4+ starting pitcher contract record as deGrom’s four-year, $120.5MM extension signed in March 2019 (coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards). That’s with us subtracting out his already agreed-to 2019 arb salary, as is our custom. DeGrom being more of a late bloomer, that contract covered age 32-35. It also allowed deGrom to opt out after the third year (first free agent year), which of course he did. The biggest extensions for 5+ pitchers were for seven years: Clayton Kershaw ($215MM), Stephen Strasburg ($175MM), and Jose Berrios($131MM). All three of those had opt-outs as well. If Skubal keeps pitching like this and stays healthy, he’s over $200MM in free agency easily. But the risk mitigation approach would be to do a four-year deal with an opt-out after the third year, potentially only delaying his free agency by one year. Circling back to Kevin’s four-year, $100MM idea, that seems reasonable enough if an opt-out is included. You could perhaps view that as $20MM for his two arbitration years and $40MM for each free agent year (a bit less than Zach Wheeler’s $42MM). TLDR. Is he going to do the David Letterman - Paul Schaffer thing, sign a humongous deal and then ask, "Oh ****, is there any money left for Rogers?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 10 hours ago, Tigermojo said: You are now famous. Thanks for the info. Most of the "core" is controllable for 4+ years. Mize and Skubal have two more years. Rogers three more years. I wonder if Harris is trying to extend any of them. I don't think I would consider Mize a core piece, but at this point can be serviceable enough to ride out his control. Honestly, I was just hoping he could bang out innings at a league average performance this season. I was ready for a rougher first half in terms of pulling back the pitching while maybe stamina affects him in the second half. The jury is still out, but if he ends up solid middle of the rotation, I think that's fine at this point. I wouldn't worried about 1/1 status at this point. If only Manning could find enough game to get there. We can still foolishly hope he's just successfully working on stuff that isn't evident in the stats, can't we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 7 hours ago, Tigermojo said: 6-3 in July so far. 10-5 the next 15 games would make them a 500 team the day before the deadline. They will have to beat up Cleveland, Minnesota, LA and Toronto along the way. Can they do it? Buyers or sellers? 3rd highest team OPS in MLB in July but middle of the pack runs and OBP. Second in home runs, first in triples. Pitching is hanging in there. Lets say they pull that off..... Heck lets say they make it in to the playoffs... Name one for sure playoff team they can beat? Orioles? Nope. Yankees? Nope. LA Dodgers? Nope.... There's no point in being buyers. At this point its just wasting prospect capital. Time to sell until we have a realistic chance of doing anything...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 7 hours ago, Tigermojo said: 6-3 in July so far. 10-5 the next 15 games would make them a 500 team the day before the deadline. They will have to beat up Cleveland, Minnesota, LA and Toronto along the way. Can they do it? Buyers or sellers? 3rd highest team OPS in MLB in July but middle of the pack runs and OBP. Second in home runs, first in triples. Pitching is hanging in there. I don't even see them as buyers in that case, because I can't imagine them selling off the top of their prospect list for an impact major league (I assume) bat, and really, don't they need more than one, anyway? What are multiple bats going to cost? I can't imagine that having a ghost of a chance at the third wild card spot would be worth it to them to go completely off plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, casimir said: If only Manning could find enough game to get there. We can still foolishly hope he's just successfully working on stuff that isn't evident in the stats, can't we? Here's a lemonade possibility for you: maybe his poor numbers are evidence that he is working on things he hasn't mastered yet? Honestly, though, I don't have any insight into it either way, because I haven't been following him all that closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 46 minutes ago, chasfh said: Here's a lemonade possibility for you: maybe his poor numbers are evidence that he is working on things he hasn't mastered yet? Honestly, though, I don't have any insight into it either way, because I haven't been following him all that closely. yeah - unless coaches are talking - and under Hinch they are not allowed, we don't get much look under the covers. In Tork's case - looking at his AB's it would *appear* he is being at least a little more aggressive in the K zone - but even whether he had figured that out on his own, or is working at a specific request, or isn't doing it as much as they want, who knows? Of course it means nothing because you really can't tell by looking anyway, but I always thought Manning needs to pitch a little angrier. 😡 Edited July 11 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: yeah - unless coaches are talking - and under Hinch they are not allowed, we don't get much look under the covers. In Tork's case - looking at his AB's it would *appear* he is being at least a little more aggressive in the K zone - but even whether he had figured that out on his own, or is working at a specific request, or isn't doing it as much as they want, who knows? Of course it means nothing because you really can't tell by looking anyway, but I always thought Manning needs to pitch a little angrier. 😡 I somewhat think of Manning as being like Tork: he has a set of skills that got him to the big leagues, and he kind of resents someone new coming in and trying to turn it all upside down. I don't know this for a fact—it's just an impression I have. Anyway, so this part here: 50 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: yeah - unless coaches are talking - and under Hinch they are not allowed, we don't get much look under the covers. Coaches are not allowed to talk to the media? Did Hinch or someone else actually say that? I think I'd be a little surprised if he came right out and did so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 54 minutes ago, chasfh said: I somewhat think of Manning as being like Tork: he has a set of skills that got him to the big leagues, and he kind of resents someone new coming in and trying to turn it all upside down. I don't know this for a fact—it's just an impression I have. Anyway, so this part here: Coaches are not allowed to talk to the media? Did Hinch or someone else actually say that? I think I'd be a little surprised if he came right out and did so. I'm pretty sure it has been reported that Hinch's assistants are not available for interviews. I suppose the managers at the various MiLB levels must have more leeway, but they are running a pretty tight media ship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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