chasfh Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 11 hours ago, Tiger337 said: Is Echoes overrating other teams prospects now too? He likes the young’uns … 😉😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said: So the quick question is: If you were structuring a "Want List" of Dodgers prospects to receive in a trade for Skubal: What would that realistically be (meaning, the Dodgers might agree to that package... such as: if you "want" their Top 7 prospects in that trade and list them as your "reasonable" or "likely" return... they most likely would not agree with you so... no trade)? I think I structured my trade proposal correctly, and found the guys I wanted... and the flexibility from my angle would be to add maybe another prospect that fills out the package. IE: "Adding one other guy" I think is in the ballpark. Asking for their top 7 (obviously I'm just making that up...) is not, IMO. As I’ve said before, there is no reasonable trade for Skubal. They need to blown away with an offer that is borderline stupid. It can’t be something that pundits say is a good deal for both teams. It needs to be a “Wow, I can’t believe they gave up that much for Skubal. They better win a title in the next 3 years.” Dodgers would probably be there top 4 prospects and maybe even let us take a flyer on Bobby Miller. If they would take on Baez that would also have some value. FWIW, I can see why you like Vargas. He may actually be their very best prospect. He looks really good and worth all the international money they paid him. Not sure how the Tigers would feel about adding another 18 year old SS after taking Rainer but I’d like it. He may be the guy the Dodgers are really hesitant to put in a deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 4 minutes ago, Hongbit said: As I’ve said before, there is no reasonable trade for Skubal. They need to blown away with an offer that is borderline stupid. It can’t be something that pundits say is a good deal for both teams. It needs to be a “Wow, I can’t believe they gave up that much for Skubal. They better win a title in the next 3 years.” Dodgers would probably be there top 4 prospects and maybe even let us take a flyer on Bobby Miller. If they would take on Baez that would also have some value. FWIW, I can see why you like Vargas. He may actually be their very best prospect. He looks really good and worth all the international money they paid him. Not sure how the Tigers would feel about adding another 18 year old SS after taking Rainer but I’d like it. He may be the guy the Dodgers are really hesitant to put in a deal. Dodgers wont take on Baez's contract, it'd push them to the next tier in salary cap. Better for Tigers to eat it and maximize prospect return. The Dodgers just added a few kids in the draft this year that would be nice as well to be added to a package. The Dodgers Farm system has taken a beating though over the last few years and is probably in the 5-10 range now not the top 3. There's a big difference from that too. I still think the Orioles make the most sense. They have more prospects than places to put them and are in win now and Corbin Burnes only has this year and next. They won't sign him to a $300/$400 million contract so adding SKubal now is their best bet to make two really good runs at it. They can make the "stupid" offer, win a World Series and still be loaded for the foreseeable future..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 We really need the Yankees and maybe the Phillies to get involved too. FOMO to a team that you may be playing in the LCS to get to the Series is how insane bidding wars happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 it would be incredibly disappointing if Harris & Co took less talent in any trade to get Ilitch out from under Javy's deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 4 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: it would be incredibly disappointing if Harris & Co took less talent in any trade to get Ilitch out from under Javy's deal. I think the word you're looking for is criminal.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Javy isn’t going anywhere. We’re stuck and are more likely to cut bait at some point, once we’ve identified an upgrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Javy isn’t going anywhere. We’re stuck and are more likely to cut bait at some point, once we’ve identified an upgrade. the faster Harris finds a suitable SS replacement - and he has not done so in 2 years - the faster he gets to tell Ilitch to eat $50 to 75M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 (edited) 42 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: the faster Harris finds a suitable SS replacement - and he has not done so in 2 years - the faster he gets to tell Ilitch to eat $50 to 75M I'll guess ST next season will be it for Baez if he doesn't hit in rest of the way this season. The residual value will be firmly under 9 figures, and they'll wait until late so the odds of anyone picking him up are low to reduce the chance he shows up on the field with another team too soon. Edited July 17 by gehringer_2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 (edited) 57 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: it would be incredibly disappointing if Harris & Co took less talent in any trade to get Ilitch out from under Javy's deal. 52 minutes ago, AlaskanTigersFan said: I think the word you're looking for is criminal.... You guys aren’t looking at it the right way. Trading him would add more talent. Getting out from his contract would allow them have significantly more money to add to their free agent pool in the offseason. That would be a big plus and probably more value in the long run than an additional lottery ticket prospect. I agree that’s just a pipe dream and nobody is taking on his contact even though his playoff experience is one of his big positives that goes unused here. Edited July 17 by Hongbit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 It’s fun to speculate on a huge haul from trading Skubal. I think it’s much more likely that Flaherty is swapped. With that as a basis, what should we look to be getting back (position and/or teams)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 23 minutes ago, Hongbit said: You guys aren’t looking at it the right way. Trading him would add more talent. Getting out from his contract would allow them have significantly more money to add to their free agent pool in the offseason. That would be a big plus and probably more value in the long run than an additional lottery ticket prospect. maybe. maybe not. even with Javy's contract, they are $50 under the ML midpoint for payroll, so "we can't do anything big until Javy's contract is over" is pure nonsense; they can spend if they wanted to, with or without his $ on the ledger IF - and that's a huge IF - getting rid of Javy's contract would lead to more FA spending, then great, but it currently should not be stopping them 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: maybe. maybe not. even with Javy's contract, they are $50 under the ML midpoint for payroll, so "we can't do anything big until Javy's contract is over" is pure nonsense; they can spend if they wanted to, with or without his $ on the ledger IF - and that's a huge IF - getting rid of Javy's contract would lead to more FA spending, then great, but it currently should not be stopping them There’s nothing for them to spend on at the moment. Hopefully they come out of the break strong and it leads to extending Flaherty rather than trading him. That’s probably not going to happen and they will end up selling but dropping Javy would mean they would have to add salary somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 The Tigers will spend when the time is right. The time is simply not yet right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Pappas Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 On 7/16/2024 at 11:29 AM, AlaskanTigersFan said: I've said it once, and I'll say it again Skubal for Cowser/Kjersted (Don't care which one) Mayo Basallo Povich/McDermit (Don't care which one) Plus one other Norby (I like most but this is probably too much) You Do it! Get'er done Scott. A poster pointed out they were browsing here and got me to stop back over. I always appreciate the effort folks put into trade proposals but must say this one I quoted is beyond reasonable. I can assure you that there is no way that the Orioles will trade Mayo AND Basallo in a trade (if they even deal them at all) and you add Kjerstad or Cowser AND Povich or McDermott AND maybe Norby. It would absolutely shock me if we did something like Mayo and Kjerstad (or Cowser) and no one else, much less the rest of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 hours ago, Hongbit said: .... FWIW, I can see why you like Vargas. He may actually be their very best prospect. He looks really good and worth all the international money they paid him. Not sure how the Tigers would feel about adding another 18 year old SS after taking Rainer but I’d like it. He may be the guy the Dodgers are really hesitant to put in a deal. Yeah... This is why I felt I was "in the ballpark"; moreso than anything else they could add into the package. As for Vargas AND Rainer... Both of those guys look like they could fit at EITHER SS or 3B... So I wouldn't worry about having two high-level SS prospects as much as "Hmmm... Who plays 3rd and who plays SS...? Hmmm..." Bottom line being I think we would be pleased with the left side of our IF for years and years to come... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Pappas Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 17 hours ago, oblong said: The only way they trade Skubal is if it’s the kind of deal where the pundits say “what were they thinking?” And ”they” refers to the other team. This may be true, which is why I doubt it'll be the O's. But I've been wrong before. Time will tell. It always does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 (edited) 3 hours ago, Hongbit said: ... It can’t be something that pundits say is a good deal for both teams. It needs to be a “Wow, I can’t believe they gave up that much for Skubal. They better win a title in the next 3 years.” Dodgers would probably be there top 4 prospects and maybe even let us take a flyer on Bobby Miller. If they would take on Baez that would also have some value... PS: One more thing: I think I constructed the Dodgers trade very similarly to the Orioles trade I proposed. Rushing = Mayo. I think each have some position risk, Rushing is a big LH'ed bat in the minors, career minors .917 OPS with good power and excellent OBP history... But I don't know if he's an automatic starter in MLB (based on some defensive weaknesses) so; part-time at Catcher (might be a great 2nd catcher matchup with Righty Dingler), part-time Lefty 1B'man, and part-time Lefty DH and/or PH'er. Mayo is not much different as I don't believe the Orioles think he's defensively good enough to be a lock 3rd baseman and may be more of a 1B'man in MLB. He's RH'ed though... so we do need that more than Lefty Rushing... Vargas = Basallo. These are the key guys. These are their best (willing-to-trade) prospects for each Org (unless you can convince the Orioles to part with Holliday... but I just don't think that's a possibility.) Basallo would be an awesome get. A good match for Dingler. But Vargas? I think he's going to be a monster. Mayo may be > Rushing... But I think Vargas is a HUGE GET and a much better get than Basallo... IMO. But Basallo is 19 and in AA with a .787 OPS, whilst Vargas is 18 and not yet in A-ball. That led me to adding two Dodger pitching prospects versus the Orioles 3. But I can even that out: Add Peter Heubeck as another Dodger pitching prospect. As for the packages: I like both Rushing and Mayo but Mayo a little more. I like both Basallo and Vargas; I like Basallo more for "almost ready" but I like Vargas WAY more for a much higher LT upside. The Orioles pitching prospects are similar to the Dodgers ones except they all have better control.. that seems to be a Dodgers weakness. But I think the packages are similar enough... and I love Vargas overwhelmingly as the "best prospect" that I go with the Dodgers package, IMO. As I've laid it out. Now... If the Orioles were to swap out Mayo for Holliday... NOW we have a serious discussion!!! Edited July 17 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 None of us, including fans of other team’s message boards, have a clue about this. It’s fun to guess and speculate, but when it devolves into coming across as an authority on the topic, I gotta call bull****. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: None of us, including fans of other team’s message boards, have a clue about this. It’s fun to guess and speculate, but when it devolves into coming across as an authority on the topic, I gotta call bull****. No... I'm just WAG'ing. I wouldn't say bull****. It's just a wild-ass guess... Although I've tried to model any trade proposal on prior big name trades... So I still think I am somewhat "in the ballpark". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 minute ago, LongLiveMaroth said: Yeah... This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 11 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: Yeah... This. And if you can't match that expectation or believe it is too high we'll just keep the expected Cy Young for a couple more years 🤷♂️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 35 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said: Yeah.....but. It's still hard to compare the value of a hitter to a pitcher given the difference in injury risk. It actually easier with a pure short term rental like Flaherty - if you have to weight the actual value of Skubal under control for more years against the odds he goes down during that period it's anyone's guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskanTigersFan Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 45 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said: 1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said: A poster pointed out they were browsing here and got me to stop back over. I always appreciate the effort folks put into trade proposals but must say this one I quoted is beyond reasonable. I can assure you that there is no way that the Orioles will trade Mayo AND Basallo in a trade (if they even deal them at all) and you add Kjerstad or Cowser AND Povich or McDermott AND maybe Norby. It would absolutely shock me if we did something like Mayo and Kjerstad (or Cowser) and no one else, much less the rest of it. This is why I said that. In order to get SKubal, the O's would have to pay the pony so to speak. It'd cost em more than Mayo and Basallo for a 4 year controlled Cy Young Candidate. I still stick by my original guess 😎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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