Jump to content

2024 Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion


Recommended Posts

Interesting haul. Cartaya is the prize. Pipeline has him at #7 in the system but not a Top 100; fangraphs has him at #3 but that was back on March 1. here is the writeup there:

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (LAD)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 219 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 50/60 40/55 40/30 40/55 55

After he slashed a disappointing .189/.278/.379 at Double-A Tulsa, Cartaya won FanGraphs’ 2023 Resolve-Testing Catcher of the Year award, a honor previously bestowed upon Bo Naylor, Henry Davis and MJ Melendez. Some of the underlying hit tool issues that Cartaya performed in spite of during previous seasons became untenable in 2023, as upper-level opposing pitchers executed to the locations he struggles to cover, which are copious. This is nothing new — Cartaya has had elevated strikeout rates in the lower minors (26% or more) since 2021, and hit tool risk has been a part of his profile the entire time. It will continue to be, but if Cartaya can get to enough of his power and continue to develop on defense (more on that in a second), then he’s still likely to clear the low offensive bar at catcher. The physical punishment inherent in catchers’ duties can have a pretty serious impact on how they perform on offense for long stretches of time. Cartaya’s bat looked unusually slow in 2023 and his max exit velocity declined three ticks from the previous season; his issues were not as simple as him having a low BABIP (although he did at .216). The exit velo decline could point to some underlying malady, or at least is an indication that Cartaya wasn’t in peak physical form last year. He had multiple injury issues in prior seasons (mostly back and hamstring). At age 22, it’s fair to conclude that he’s not in physical decline, and that whatever his 2023 issue, it might be remedied or healed with an offseason of rest. If anything, broad-shouldered, 22-year-old hitters who are built like castle drawbridges, as Cartaya is, tend to merit more projection into their mid-20s.

Cartaya still has developing to do on defense, but he’s a pretty good bet to remain a catcher. His receiving and ball-blocking are still below average (common for a 22-year-old, but it’s frustrating that Cartaya has been treading water in this regard), and too often he fumbles the baseball during his exchange, but his raw arm strength is very good and he has the big, durable frame typical of a primary catcher.

He is no longer on the expressway to Chavez Ravine like it seemed he was a year ago, but Cartaya is still a high-ceiling catching prospect who stands a chance to be an impact regular. One of Cartaya’s option years has now passed. Will Smith is entrenched ahead of him, and fellow catching prospects Dalton Rushing and Thayron Liranzo put themselves in the medium-term 40-man mix with great 2023 seasons. It’s very important for Cartaya to rebound in 2024 so he can enter his final option year as a viable big league option. You could point to any of the Dodgers’ good catching prospects as candidates for trade, and Smith’s presence increases the likelihood that any of them begins their career as a backup, which is especially true for Cartaya because he’s already on the 40-man roster. We’re not totally ignoring Cartaya’s 2023 flop, but our instincts here are to avoid overcorrection and continue to project Cartaya as a long-term primary catcher.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...