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6/17/24 7:20PM Tigers @ Braves


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8 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

They still had a one run lead after 6. And the bullpen couldn’t hold it. Among league leaders in blown leads after 6 innings.  Beginning to realize there is nothing special about Fetter et al. Not in the same league as Cleveland or Seattle for instance in terms of pitching development. 

In somewhat fairness to the bullpen this game without absolving their recent month and a half performance, saving a 1 run game for 3 innings is no given.  Allowing 1 run over 3 innings is a 3.00 ERA, that's an ace SP.  This game is again on the offense.

Its funny you bring up Fetter.  I've started to question things a bit lately, in particular with how the bullpen has performed.  Maybe the pieces just aren't very good to begin with, I don't know.  He's had guys with "stuff" that could never figure out the control (Soto, Lange).  On the other hand, he polished up Lorenzen and Flaherty is having a resurgence.

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So, I understand pitching Foley on Sunday because he hadn't pitched in 5 days.  But throwing Holton 2 innings in that game down by 3?  That probably factors into his lack of availability for this game.

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10 hours ago, kdog said:

If Vest is your first option in a one run game, you are not serious.

You know, looking over the stats, vest isn't all that different from Foley this season.

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Foley probably isn't available because he pitched 2 innings the game before.  Was Brieske available?  Miller to go after 5, 6, 7 and then Vest to go after 8, 9, 1?  I don't recall the LHB/RHB scenario, but toss that out because there are no LHPs available that I want in a 1 run game.

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11 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'm OK with Holton, but they burned him the night before.

I agree with you for the Atlanta game opener.  I still don't understand burning him in the Houston series ender.

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6 minutes ago, casimir said:

I agree with you for the Atlanta game opener.  I still don't understand burning him in the Houston series ender.

Maybe Hinch himself is getting burned out with the futility of the offense. If you've lost all confidence you will ever score runs when you need them, maybe you reach a point where you figure any reliever, any time just doesn't matter.

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10 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Not going to destroy a young players development. It'll never happen.

So bringing back Tork and Meadows, and bringing up Jayce, and Dingler is going to "destroy their development"? at this point?...ohhhhh kaaayyy 

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Miller is the odd case right now. His peripherals look fine, the result are terrible. In 6 IP since coming off the IL he's given up no walks, 3 hits, 6K,  a 143 BA against, and blown 3 saves. How do you do that? Have to think his luck should improve.

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4 minutes ago, Dtrain72 said:

So bringing back Tork and Meadows, and bringing up Jayce, and Dingler is going to "destroy their development"? at this point?...ohhhhh kaaayyy 

I haven't followed Meadows' ABs at Toledo, but have checked in on Torkelson's. He seems to be trying to swing the bat more. If that's true, and it's just a guess, than I'd rather give him time to work through that. You have to hope they have some plan for him to accomplish 'x' while he is there so whatever it is, he needs to complete it before they bring him back. In Torks case it's not like they just sent him down to get his confidence back, he had some surgery to do on his mechanics/approach.

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8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Miller is the odd case right now. His peripherals look fine, the result are terrible. In 6 IP since coming off the IL he's given up no walks, 3 hits, 6K,  a 143 BA against, and blown 3 saves. How do you do that? Have to think his luck should improve.

Quick math shows 38.7% of hits + walks result in a run scored across MLB.  Miller is at 55%.  HR9 in MLB is 1.1, Miller is 1.2.  I wouldn't think that HR9 delta is the entire answer to the run % delta.  

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3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I haven't followed Meadows' ABs at Toledo, but have checked in on Torkelson's. He seems to be trying to swing the bat more. If that's true, and it's just a guess, than I'd rather give him time to work through that. You have to hope they have some plan for him to accomplish 'x' while he is there so whatever it is, he needs to complete it before they bring him back. In Torks case it's not like they just sent him down to get his confidence back, he had some surgery to do on his mechanics/approach.

The other variable to Meadows is his defense.  Baddoo was brought in as a defensive replacement last night.  Let that sink in for a moment.  Unfortunately for Meadows, there just isn't enough offense elsewhere to hide his bat at the bottom of the order.

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2 minutes ago, casimir said:

The other variable to Meadows is his defense.  Baddoo was brought in as a defensive replacement last night.  Let that sink in for a moment.  Unfortunately for Meadows, there just isn't enough offense elsewhere to hide his bat at the bottom of the order.

Parker is sitting at about 270 at Toledo with an OBP over 375.  I used to take 50 pts as a typical BA drop from AAA to MLB but the gulf seems to be worse now. But if he could hold at 220-230 given his occasional power and speed on the bases I think he's still an asset, but he was at 096 went he was sent down and yeah - you can't hide that enough.

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The Tigers have scored one or fewer runs in 18 games so far, third most in baseball behind only the Marlins and White Sox.

The Tigers have scored ten or more runs in six games so far, tied for eighth most in baseball. The Tigers have in fact scored ten or more runs in more games in 2024 than they did in all of 2023.

Many, maybe most, will see this as an indictment of coaching and perhaps even of the front office. Some won’t. YMMV.

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The thing with the bullpen usage... this team and org is not in a position to have guys set in roles.  Nobody is good enough to claim one.  You have to find out who can play and who can't.  Part of that is putting them in positions to succeed or fail. They are the ones taking the test, not AJ HInch or Chris Fetter.  It's not a board game.  The pieces are the ones who have to execute.

 

 

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers have scored one or fewer runs in 18 games so far, third most in baseball behind only the Marlins and White Sox.

The Tigers have scored ten or more runs in six games so far, tied for eighth most in baseball. The Tigers have in fact scored ten or more runs in more games in 2024 than they did in all of 2023.

Many, maybe most, will see this as an indictment of coaching and perhaps even of the front office. Some won’t. YMMV.

I see it as mostly random variation.  

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10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Kredler at 167, Malloy at 176 with a >40% K rate, Rogers at 206 and Keith still figuring it out. That is just too many holes in a lineup.

Malloy has exactly 42 plate appearances in the majors.

Keith has exactly 222.

We already knew Kreidler can’t hit but hey at least Javy is out amirite

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16 minutes ago, oblong said:

The thing with the bullpen usage... this team and org is not in a position to have guys set in roles.  Nobody is good enough to claim one.  You have to find out who can play and who can't.  Part of that is putting them in positions to succeed or fail. They are the ones taking the test, not AJ HInch or Chris Fetter.  It's not a board game.  The pieces are the ones who have to execute.

 

 

For the first few years with Fetter/ Hinch, the bullpen did well without much talent.  It looked liked they had some bullpen magic.  This year, not so much. So, maybe bullpen success is more about talent and luck than about management. You really can't reliably predict bullpens.  

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6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

For the first few years with Fetter/ Hinch, the bullpen did well without much talent.  It looked liked they had some bullpen magic.  This year, not so much. So, maybe bullpen success is more about talent and luck than about management. You really can't reliably predict bullpens.  

I agree with that.  You don't build bullpens. They just happen. And they don't last.  

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44 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I see it as mostly random variation.  

I do for the most part as well, but I also believe that the team we have this year is better to the point that they can score 10+ runs more often. The team we have is also very young and inexperienced, which is also why they get shut down often.

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I think it's just a matter of perception because according to Fangraphs, the Tigers bullpen is 20th in WAR this year and they were 20th in WAR last year.

This year, the hitting and starting pitching are better than last year so the bullpen seems worse and it seemed like a strength but not really.

Individual performance probably skews perception as well. A few guys pitched very well last year but overall the results are very similar so far.

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53 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers have scored one or fewer runs in 18 games so far, third most in baseball behind only the Marlins and White Sox.

The Tigers have scored ten or more runs in six games so far, tied for eighth most in baseball. The Tigers have in fact scored ten or more runs in more games in 2024 than they did in all of 2023.

Many, maybe most, will see this as an indictment of coaching and perhaps even of the front office. Some won’t. YMMV.

sure, I can see two ways of looking at those results. The first is that you have a bunch of AAAA players, so when they face a team that by circumstance can only throw a AAA level pitcher at them, they clean up, but then can't handle normal MLB pitching the majority of the time - so there is your rationale for boom and bust. The other way to look at it is that you have hitters with MLB potential (if not, why did the FO bring them to the Majors?) but are trapped in an approach that is too geared to hitting mistakes only. The outcome of either scenario will be the same - an exaggerated amount of boom and bust based on who they are facing. I think both are or have been true. In Torkelson's case I do believe he is a better hitter than the approach he was using was allowing him to realize, (though may yet be proved wrong 😥). The staff certainly appears to have recognized that and sent him to Toledo to straighten out. They probably should have done it sooner. He would be my main case where I think there had been a coaching failure. Kriedler, McKinstry, Baddoo, are not MLB hitters. Rogers is a AAA hitter with a bit of MLB level power. Vierling, Ibanez, Canha, Kelly are MLB level role bats, not team carriers. Keith and Perez represent hope, but can't be expected to supply much production yet. The only significantly above average quality bat on this team right now is Greene. I'll grant Malloy is still too SSS, but since I've had my reservations about how he would make the transition from the beginning, I haven't seen anything to take me off my scepticism.

Clearly since the hitting was thin to begin with, the loss of Carpenter and Torkelson's regression have been fatal. The difference between one feared hitter and three in a line-up is pretty huge.

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FWIW ...

Tigers relievers on the surface:

  W L Sv ERA
Mar/Apr 12 6 10 2.88
May 3 6 4 5.81
June 3 3 1 3.72

Tigers relievers under the hood:

  FIP xFIP BABIP
Mar/Apr 4.04 4.13 .232
May 3.89 3.93 .325
June 3.69 4.23 .267
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