6/17/24 7:20PM Tigers @ Braves

[kdog]

All the close low scoring games they were winning in March and April with low strand rates and clutch bullpen performance….that regresses to a point where we are now.

If we could score more runs and have a three or four run lead occasionally, it would reduce the leverage that bullpen is under constantly. The offense isn’t going to get fixed anytime in the near future, so we will have to deal with this.

[RatkoVarda]

offense sucks and will suck even more once Canha, Urshela, and Kelly are traded and replaced with rookies.

nothing can be done about it this year, and for the future, no reason whatsoever to think they know how to maximize the performance of either starting talent (Greene, Carpenter) or marginal talent (everyone else).

hoping and praying that you can complete a competent lineup if every player develops and every player stays healthy has not worked out for almost 10 years, but Harris seems to need to see that fiasco play out in person for the next few seasons.

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

sure, I can see two ways of looking at those results. The first is that you have a bunch of AAAA players, so when they face a team that by circumstance can only throw a AAA level pitcher at them, they clean up, but then can't handle normal MLB pitching the majority of the time - so there is your rationale for boom and bust. The other way to look at it is that you have hitters with MLB potential (if not, why did the FO bring them to the Majors?) but are trapped in an approach that is too geared to hitting mistakes only. The outcome of either scenario will be the same - and exaggerated amount of boom and bust based on who they are facing. I think both are or have been true. In Torkelson's case I do believe he is a better hitter than the approach he was using was allowing him to realize, (though may yet be proved wrong 😥). The staff certainly appears to have recognized that and sent him to Toledo to straighten out. They probably should have done it sooner. He would be my main case where I think there had been a coaching failure. Kriedler, McKinstry, Baddoo, are not MLB hitters. Rogers is a AAA hitter with a bit of MLB level power. Vierling, Ibanez, Canha, Kelly are MLB level role bats, not team carriers. Keith and Perez represent hope, but can't be expected to supply much production yet. The only significantly above average quality bat on this team right now is Greene. I'll grant Malloy is still too SSS, but since I've had my reservations about how he would make the transition from the beginning, I haven't seen anything to take me off my scepticism.

I see the Tigers as a team that is young and growing and learning, not as a team that is mature and stuck and on a treadmill to oblivion. You may not agree, and that's fine.

The way I see it, the Tigers are moving very deliberately—obviously too deliberately in the Win-Now! view of practically everyone here—toward a sustainable organization that can compete every year. They've established a plan, and there is no reason to deviate from that plan right now just because the players aren't mature right now, or because we have stopgaps to help us be at least somewhat competitive while we retool, which is what literally everyone here has been clamoring for. Although a few guys on our roster today will be here when we are truly ready to compete, most of them will not be. So I don't complain about having guys like Urshela or Canha just because they're not Chapman or Ohtani, and I won't hammer the coaching because they can't make Rogers and Kreidler good major league hitters. I'm looking more at the Greenes and the Vierlings and the Torks and the Keiths of the group. Those are the guys that I'm focusing on, because those are the guys we're hanging our future on, not Zach ****ing McKinstry. I mean, outside of his family, who even cares about that guy? He's just passing through only because we need someone on the field today. So I don't whine about him—he might well be gone well before the season is done.

This state of affairs makes a lot of fans unhappy, and I get that. I'm not happy that Al Avila literally wasted seven years of our lives and then we had to start all over, either. I've been here since 2015, too. But I'm willing to stick it out to see whether this new approach can bear fruit, and I'm not willing to declare it as failing just because we're not favorites to win a ring less than a year and a half in.

If that's too much for some people, that's OK. There are plenty of other teams to root for in the meantime—Lions, Red Wings, U-M, even other MLB teams, whoever they want—and there will be plenty of room on the bandwagon when they want to come back once we start competing regularly.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

For the first few years with Fetter/ Hinch, the bullpen did well without much talent.  It looked liked they had some bullpen magic.  This year, not so much. So, maybe bullpen success is more about talent and luck than about management. You really can't reliably predict bullpens.  

I wouldn't minimize the work Fetter and staff have done helping pitchers improve their stuff, and I still think Hinch is about as good as they come at utilizing what he has to work with, but even with all that, when guys break down you get left short of talent and there is no way around that when you lose guys that were were previously effective the team will suffer. Talent is still the bottom line. Lange's deflagration has been a big blow, and Faedo had been useful before he went down. Chafin may be better than last season but is still not pitching as well as he did in '22. Wentz has been fool's gold.

Because they are inconsistent, bullpen is a place where if you aren't trying to improve every year, you are getting worse. Miller was the org's only even half serious attempt to upgrade with a high level talent and he is basically a reclamation project

Edited June 18 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

45 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I do for the most part as well, but I also believe that the team we have this year is better to the point that they can score 10+ runs more often. The team we have is also very young and inexperienced, which is also why they get shut down often.

I agree with that since they were not capable of that last year.    

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I wouldn't minimize the work Fetter and staff have done helping pitchers improve their stuff, and I still think Hinch is about as good as they come at utilizing what he has to work with, but even with all that, when guys break down you get left short of talent and there is no way around that when you lose guys that were were previously effective the team will suffer. Talent is still the bottom line. Lange's deflagration has been a big blow, and Faedo had been useful before he went down. Chafin may be better than last season but is still not pitching as well as he did in '22. Wentz has been fool's gold.

Because they are inconsistent, bullpen is a place where if you aren't trying to improve every year, you are getting worse. Miller was the org's only even half serious attempt to upgrade with a high level talent and he is basically a reclamation project

I think Fetter is great.  He makes the Tigers a better team.  Coaching can only do so much though.  You can't sustain anything without talent,  

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I see the Tigers as a team that is young and growing and learning

I buy this arg a lot more for pitchers than hitters. Hitting is a young man's game. Guys that don't show some MLB hitting talent by 23/24 at most 25 probably won't ever be more than role players. As for the future - there's some light in Lakeland, but very little in the way of bats likely to make Det anywhere above that (Lee?) so it's going to be a long haul if they can't find some help outside the current org.

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[CMU97]

21 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

BODY BLOW! BODY BLOW! KNOCK HIM OUT!

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, Dtrain72 said:

So bringing back Tork and Meadows, and bringing up Jayce, and Dingler is going to "destroy their development"? at this point?...ohhhhh kaaayyy 

We need Meadows right now. Putting a DH in LF isn't ideal. And the fact that he can't hit. We used Baddoo as a defensive replacement!! And he struggles at the plate too. Send Malloy and Baddoo back down and bring Meadows back up. I don't care who else they bring up, as long as the can hit a little bit better than Baddoo and Malloy.

[Tigermojo]

29 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

We need Meadows right now. Putting a DH in LF isn't ideal. And the fact that he can't hit. We used Baddoo as a defensive replacement!! And he struggles at the plate too. Send Malloy and Baddoo back down and bring Meadows back up. I don't care who else they bring up, as long as the can hit a little bit better than Baddoo and Malloy.

If he stays in Toledo until July they get an extra year of control.

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[chasfh]

58 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I buy this arg a lot more for pitchers than hitters. Hitting is a young man's game. Guys that don't show some MLB hitting talent by 23/24 at most 25 probably won't ever be more than role players. As for the future - there's some light in Lakeland, but very little in the way of bats likely to make Det anywhere above that (Lee?) so it's going to be a long haul if they can't find some help outside the current org.

I think we are about where we should be expected to given our having to restart the cycle in the first place.

Speaking only for myself, I am definitely not assuming that who we have in the organization today is everyone we plan to go to war with in a couple of years. I think our system is going to look dramatically different, probably at least as different in 2026 from today as today is from 2022. So I'm willing to give Scott Harris the chance to find help outside the organization. I haven't given up on him, and I will assume he will be able to do so until he shows me he can't or won't. I for one won't be projecting Al Avila's failures onto Scott Harris as though it were some sort of sad sack organizational inevitability. We are already substantially in better shape than when Harris took over.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I see the Tigers as a team that is young and growing and learning, not as a team that is mature and stuck and on a treadmill to oblivion. You may not agree, and that's fine.

The way I see it, the Tigers are moving very deliberately—obviously too deliberately in the Win-Now! view of practically everyone here—toward a sustainable organization that can compete every year. They've established a plan, and there is no reason to deviate from that plan right now just because the players aren't mature right now, or because we have stopgaps to help us be at least somewhat competitive while we retool, which is what literally everyone here has been clamoring for. Although a few guys on our roster today will be here when we are truly ready to compete, most of them will not be. So I don't complain about having guys like Urshela or Canha just because they're not Chapman or Ohtani, and I won't hammer the coaching because they can't make Rogers and Kreidler good major league hitters. I'm looking more at the Greenes and the Vierlings and the Torks and the Keiths of the group. Those are the guys that I'm focusing on, because those are the guys we're hanging our future on, not Zach ****ing McKinstry. I mean, outside of his family, who even cares about that guy? He's just passing through only because we need someone on the field today. So I don't whine about him—he might well be gone well before the season is done.

This state of affairs makes a lot of fans unhappy, and I get that. I'm not happy that Al Avila literally wasted seven years of our lives and then we had to start all over, either. I've been here since 2015, too. But I'm willing to stick it out to see whether this new approach can bear fruit, and I'm not willing to declare it as failing just because we're not favorites to win a ring less than a year and a half in...

I am on THIS bandwagon.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

 

Man, that call on Keith in the sixth—looks even worse on a graphic.

[kdog]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I see the Tigers as a team that is young and growing and learning, not as a team that is mature and stuck and on a treadmill to oblivion. You may not agree, and that's fine.

The way I see it, the Tigers are moving very deliberately—obviously too deliberately in the Win-Now! view of practically everyone here—toward a sustainable organization that can compete every year. They've established a plan, and there is no reason to deviate from that plan right now just because the players aren't mature right now, or because we have stopgaps to help us be at least somewhat competitive while we retool, which is what literally everyone here has been clamoring for. Although a few guys on our roster today will be here when we are truly ready to compete, most of them will not be. So I don't complain about having guys like Urshela or Canha just because they're not Chapman or Ohtani, and I won't hammer the coaching because they can't make Rogers and Kreidler good major league hitters. I'm looking more at the Greenes and the Vierlings and the Torks and the Keiths of the group. Those are the guys that I'm focusing on, because those are the guys we're hanging our future on, not Zach ****ing McKinstry. I mean, outside of his family, who even cares about that guy? He's just passing through only because we need someone on the field today. So I don't whine about him—he might well be gone well before the season is done.

This state of affairs makes a lot of fans unhappy, and I get that. I'm not happy that Al Avila literally wasted seven years of our lives and then we had to start all over, either. I've been here since 2015, too. But I'm willing to stick it out to see whether this new approach can bear fruit, and I'm not willing to declare it as failing just because we're not favorites to win a ring less than a year and a half in.

If that's too much for some people, that's OK. There are plenty of other teams to root for in the meantime—Lions, Red Wings, U-M, even other MLB teams, whoever they want—and there will be plenty of room on the bandwagon when they want to come back once we start competing regularly.

This is a strong post. I’m scarred by Avila’s rebuild and other failed ‘restores’ in recent Detroit history. But will Harris defer to giving young players time in Detroit because he has no other plan for the immediate future? Is  a young player failing consistently good for their development.  IMO, this is the abstract judgement that we don’t have answers for. The issue they have in the high minors is that most of these guys aren’t positionally versatile. Jung likely isn’t a 3rd baseman, Keith isn’t a 2B, and most of the hit tool guys they have profile as corner of or dh(Malloy types). I wish these guys could actually hit. But hitting development around the sport is bad right now. I generally understand Harris minor league dev process. I don’t really know how we are going to field a real major league offense unless he makes some baseball trades or has something else up his sleeve. So I need to see his roster building process yield results before I buy in.

Edited June 18 by kdog

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, kdog said:

This is a strong post. I’m scarred by Avila’s rebuild and other failed ‘restores’ in recent Detroit history. But will Harris defer to giving young players time in Detroit because he has no other plan for the immediate future? Is  a young player failing consistently good for their development.  IMO, this is the abstract judgement that we don’t have answers for. The issue they have in the high minors is that most of these guys aren’t positionally versatile. Jung likely isn’t a 3rd baseman, Keith isn’t a 2B, and most of the hit tool guys they have profile as corner of or dh(Malloy types). I wish these guys could actually hit. But hitting development around the sport is bad right now. I generally understand Harris minor league dev process. I don’t really know how we are going to field a real major league offense unless he makes some baseball trades or has something else up his sleeve. So I need to see his roster building process yield results before I buy in.

It's totally defensible to be skeptical going in just on principle and take a wait-and-see approach. We Tigers fans have definitely been scarred and no one wants to just give their heart away after that. That's not so far afield from my own approach of expecting that Harris will do the right things regarding drafts, development, trades, free agents, etc., until he shows us that he can't or won't. I think that's defensible as well, and so far, he has not yet disappointed me. OMMV.

What I'm borderline offended by is fans assuming Harris has put together this failing team as his final product and that he's just going to end up blowing it all up and send the organization into another several years of tanking on Baby Doc's orders. There's simply no reason to believe that outside of it's what Al Avila did and this is the Tigers after all and so this is our fate. If the Lions can break a six-decade-plus cycle of losing by being innovative and doing things differently, the Tigers certainly can break their own decade-long cycle as well.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tigermojo said:

If he stays in Toledo until July they get an extra year of control.

Parker might be a nice player, but at this point I think the window has closed on him being any kind of star, so you aren't going to have to pay that much if you want to keep him even if he gets the year.

[Sports_Freak]

12 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It's totally defensible to be skeptical going in just on principle and take a wait-and-see approach. We Tigers fans have definitely been scarred and no one wants to just give their heart away after that. That's not so far afield from my own approach of expecting that Harris will do the right things regarding drafts, development, trades, free agents, etc., until he shows us that he can't or won't. I think that's defensible as well, and so far, he has not yet disappointed me. OMMV.

What I'm borderline offended by is fans assuming Harris has put together this failing team as his final product and that he's just going to end up blowing it all up and send the organization into another several years of tanking on Baby Doc's orders. There's simply no reason to believe that outside of it's what Al Avila did and this is the Tigers after all and so this is our fate. If the Lions can break a six-decade-plus cycle of losing by being innovative and doing things differently, the Tigers certainly can break their own decade-long cycle as well.

Building a team strictly thru the draft takes several years. Has he made any trades to speed up our rebuild? The problem with trading our young players for proven stars is that the proven stars are much more expensive. And for all we know, Harris isn't allowed to increase the payroll. We can't assume he can just by players who were signed a few years ago. So it's either young and inexperienced players or waiver wire pickups. Or even free agent utility players who are affordable and can play several positions. He built this roster with the idea that Meadows would hit and be a leadoff hitter with Tork hitting 30 to 40 home runs. That idea blew up in our face.

[Sports_Freak]

13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Parker might be a nice player, but at this point I think the window has closed on him being any kind of star, so you aren't going to have to pay that much if you want to keep him even if he gets the year.

Many of these young players lost a year of development during Covid. Parker us still very young and he shows promise. His defense and speed doesn't go into slumps. He just needs to hit to make him a valuable piece. Bring him back and stick him in center.

[gehringer_2]

22 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Many of these young players lost a year of development during Covid. Parker us still very young and he shows promise. His defense and speed doesn't go into slumps. He just needs to hit to make him a valuable piece. Bring him back and stick him in center.

I think the decision on when to brings guys up from AAA just keep getting harder. Used to be, a guy would reach a reasonable performance level at AAA and you had a pretty good idea he would be able to stay afloat in the MLB even if it was at a lower level than you hoped, but more and more we see guys all around the league put up even pretty impressive AAA numbers and then fall completely flat after call up. One has to suppose teams will be breaking down AAA hitter assessments by quality of pitching faced to a deeper level than we have access to as fans.

Edited June 18 by gehringer_2

[SoCalTiger]

I remain confident in Harris and he is making progress. What I would like to see is less development at the major league level and more proven additions to bridge the gap. I would rather a  player stay too long in the minors than come up too soon especially if they are not sound defensively. While they are developing in the minors we can add more Urshela and Cahha types to the MLB team so we are competitive in this new wild card era and avoid clown shows in the field. It doesn't have to be Ohtani etc just some solid players that are not too expensive to jettison should a young player FORCE his way on the team.

[chasfh]

55 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Building a team strictly thru the draft takes several years. Has he made any trades to speed up our rebuild? The problem with trading our young players for proven stars is that the proven stars are much more expensive. And for all we know, Harris isn't allowed to increase the payroll. We can't assume he can just by players who were signed a few years ago. So it's either young and inexperienced players or waiver wire pickups. Or even free agent utility players who are affordable and can play several positions. He built this roster with the idea that Meadows would hit and be a leadoff hitter with Tork hitting 30 to 40 home runs. That idea blew up in our face.

Tell me you didn't read my posts without actually saying you didn't read my posts.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

If the Lions can break a six-decade-plus cycle of losing by being innovative and doing things differently, the Tigers certainly can break their own decade-long cycle as well.

The difference is that in the NFL, teams are pretty much on a level playing field, so once you get a smarter than average FO in place, you start to win, plus the turnover is much faster for an NFL team so things can happen much faster. A mid/small market baseball team already starts at such a disadvantage that just being above average in the FO is not enough, you have to be *way* above average. I'm hoping Harris is that guy, but the jury is still out that maybe he's only another 1st level smart guy. Ilitch wants to do the sustainable thing -  without getting on the boom bust cycle Dombrowski operated in, but the Tigers (like the Royals/Indians/Cinci/Stl/etc/ have a terribly narrow window to succeed at it.

[Tigermojo]

I would feel a lot better about Harris if SF was a better team.