6/17/24 7:20PM Tigers @ Braves

[kdog]

If they are going to lean into a pitching and defense model, that’s great. They don’t have the athletic profiles in the upper minors to accomplish that…aside from Meadows. They have a lot of dh types who might hit if they cleanup issues(Jung contact rate, Keith hitting development in the majors, tork miracle). 
Unless you get an elite guy in free agency(in his prime), you will invariably get stuck with a terrible contract. He has to figure out how to build a functional roster before the second wave of prospects are ready. They have more than enough money to make trades.

The Lorenzen trade was probably a marginal win. We need to see them get a decent lotto ticket for Flaherty. 

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Many of these young players lost a year of development during Covid. Parker us still very young and he shows promise. His defense and speed doesn't go into slumps. He just needs to hit to make him a valuable piece. Bring him back and stick him in center.

I have always wondered about the saying "speed and defense don't go into slumps".  A good defensive player could go into a slump if he goes through a period when he's not concentrating.  I think we have see that with Baez.  Kinsler was another one.  He would go through most of the year doing everything right and then he'd make a series  of bonehead baserunning or defensive plays.   

[Tiger337]

44 minutes ago, kdog said:

If they are going to lean into a pitching and defense model, that’s great. They don’t have the athletic profiles in the upper minors to accomplish that…aside from Meadows. They have a lot of dh types who might hit if they cleanup issues(Jung contact rate, Keith hitting development in the majors, tork miracle). 
Unless you get an elite guy in free agency(in his prime), you will invariably get stuck with a terrible contract. He has to figure out how to build a functional roster before the second wave of prospects are ready. They have more than enough money to make trades.

The Lorenzen trade was probably a marginal win. We need to see them get a decent lotto ticket for Flaherty. 

We may have different defintions of "lotto ticket" but If all Harris gets is a lotto ticket for Flaherty, I would be disappointed.  With a lot of teams looking for pitching and Flaherty having an excellent season, I am hoping they either exrend him or get a major league ready prospect.  

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The difference is that in the NFL, teams are pretty much on a level playing field, so once you get a smarter than average FO in place, you start to win, plus the turnover is much faster for an NFL team so things can happen much faster. A mid/small market baseball team already starts at such a disadvantage that just being above average in the FO is not enough, you have to be *way* above average. I'm hoping Harris is that guy, but the jury is still out that maybe he's only another 1st level smart guy. Ilitch wants to do the sustainable thing -  without getting on the boom bust cycle Dombrowski operated in, but the Tigers (like the Royals/Indians/Cinci/Stl/etc/ have a terribly narrow window to succeed at it.

I don't understand the proactive concern that Harris is merely just another 1st level smart guy, which I guess means he's a below average intellect, except in the context of your being afraid of giving in to hope and so you maintain the high wall of skepticism because you don't want be thought of as a fool if he flops. If that's not the case, then I don't see the value in that thinking.

Flip side, I'm sure some may wish to characterize me as an dimwitted slappy for Harris (and Hinch) so they can ridicule me for it, and I'm sure there's a lot of satisfaction to be gained in that. But all I'm saying for the umpteenth time is that I am assuming that Harris is capable of delivering on his vision to build a sustainable winner in Detroit until such time that it is proven he can't, won't, or is not allowed to. I'm just not in the camp that assumes Harris will fail until he proves otherwise, which I admit I thought of Avila from day one. This feels a lot different to me, and if I risk losing the respect of other fans for being reasonably optimistic about Harris and then he flops like Avila, that's a risk I'm willing to take. I don't have so much time left, so I might as well be optimistic instead of fatalistic—especially given that there's reason to be.

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tigermojo said:

I would feel a lot better about Harris if SF was a better team.

They were 107-55 in 2021. Scott Harris was the GM.

[kdog]

22 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

We may have different defintions of "lotto ticket" but If all Harris gets is a lotto ticket for Flaherty, I would be disappointed.  With a lot of teams looking for pitching and Flaherty having an excellent season, I am hoping they either exrend him or get a major league ready prospect.  

I looked at rental trades last year and didn’t see a lot of great prospects moving. 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, kdog said:

I looked at rental trades last year and didn’t see a lot of great prospects moving. 

That is a problem and a reason I don't like deadline selling.   However, I am still hoping that Flaherty is good enough this year where they can get something of real value.  If not, I hope they extend him.  

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don't understand the proactive concern that Harris is merely just another 1st level smart guy, which I guess means he's a below average intellect

no, to the contrary, I define 1st level smart guy as the guy who is above average but just not enough to overcome the structural disadvantage of trying to operate in a 'sustainable' manner in an MLB mid-market, which is the maybe the toughest assignment in US sports management. So the way I would put it, is that if you have found Theo Epstein V2.0, I sort of expect him to be extra-ordinary enough that he'd have already pulled a rabbit or two out of his hat, and that's what I don't see yet, so at this point I can't be real excited about slow and steady because in the end I don't think slow and steady is going to be enough to ever get 'there' which is an ever receding target you have to move fast to catch up with. Now 12mo from now if Jobe, McGonigle and Clark are all knocking at the door, Tork and Partker has been coached up and found their swings, Casey Mize has regained at least mid-level breaking ball command, and a successful Flaherty has been signed instead of traded,  I'll consider that a fine fluffle of little rodents.

Edited June 18, 2024 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

So the way I would put it, is that if you have found Theo Epstein V2.0, I sort of expect him to be extra-ordinary enough that he'd have already pulled a rabbit or two out of his hat, and that's what I don't see yet

Maybe he already has. Not every impact move hits as fast as lightning. Sometimes it hits as fast as thunder.

[alex]

49 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

We may have different defintions of "lotto ticket" but If all Harris gets is a lotto ticket for Flaherty, I would be disappointed.  With a lot of teams looking for pitching and Flaherty having an excellent season, I am hoping they either exrend him or get a major league ready prospect.  

 

Agreed this is where the FO needs to make some impact. Can SHarris acquire a close to MLB ready talent for a position of need?

With said, I would be for signing Flaherty to a 2-3 year higher AAV deal perhaps (emphasis on two). They will end up signing someone  (or two SPs) on say 1-2 year deals. That has been the MO so far. Two years ago Boyd and Lorenzen. This past year Flaherty and Maeda. Same previously with SF (even more so, maybe they were closer to contending?).

[alex]

29 minutes ago, kdog said:

I looked at rental trades last year and didn’t see a lot of great prospects moving. 

This is very true - but could we add a prospect (not one of our top 5 per say) ourselves and get a better player. This is the art of negotiating a deal and a good GM does upgrade a club with trades.

I do not believe for a minute we have no prospects to trade but our top 5 that anyone would want. Not buying it. Our farm system is NOT that bad. Sweeten the pot and get a 'player' - if we end up selling. If not, then why can't we trade a marginal prospect and get an expiring contract/salary. We still may have a run in us 'IF' our SP stays healthy and we can add a decent bat or two (that may be dreaming, lol). I also find it hard to believe the Guardians and KC will stay this strong.

[casimir]

21 hours ago, chasfh said:

The Tigers have scored one or fewer runs in 18 games so far, third most in baseball behind only the Marlins and White Sox.

The Tigers have scored ten or more runs in six games so far, tied for eighth most in baseball. The Tigers have in fact scored ten or more runs in more games in 2024 than they did in all of 2023.

Many, maybe most, will see this as an indictment of coaching and perhaps even of the front office. Some won’t. YMMV.

 

21 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I see it as mostly random variation.  

Is that really random variation to be that far on either extreme of run scoring?

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, casimir said:

 

Is that really random variation to be that far on either extreme of run scoring?

It's only six games of ten runs or more which I think that can happen randomly.  I don't think it's a situation whre they are good hitting team which should be scoring runs on a regular basis.  They are a poor hitting team which occasionally has a good game.  

[RatkoVarda]

14 hours ago, kdog said:

I looked at rental trades last year and didn’t see a lot of great prospects moving. 

FG had 6 50-level guys traded; does not include Cole Ragans who has been fantastic for KC who got him in early July. Avila's 2nd best trade was a little move for Olson. Need good scouts so you can get lucky sometimes.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2023-deadline/

[casimir]

52 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It's only six games of ten runs or more which I think that can happen randomly.  I don't think it's a situation whre they are good hitting team which should be scoring runs on a regular basis.  They are a poor hitting team which occasionally has a good game.  

Yeah, I might be too focused on the where they are vs the rest of the league than the actual number of occurrences.  The number of occurrences is probably too small in general to determine anything.  I wonder where the Tigers rank if the threshold was 7 or 8 rather than 10.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

It's only six games of ten runs or more which I think that can happen randomly.  I don't think it's a situation whre they are good hitting team which should be scoring runs on a regular basis.  They are a poor hitting team which occasionally has a good game.  

I see them more as a team with a combination of inexperienced guys with good hitting potential plus major league veterans who can hit a little bit, both types of which are more uneven than just flat out poor. They’re not simply a terrible offense up and down the lineup like the White Sox or Marlins.

[chasfh]

16 hours ago, kdog said:

I looked at rental trades last year and didn’t see a lot of great prospects moving. 

It’s been a well-reported story the last few years that teams are hanging onto the very top of their systems and trying to deal from the middle instead. Back in Dombrowski’s heyday nobody cared about prospects, which were considered little more than just unproven players. That’s why we cheerfully dealt guys like Eugenio Suarez for basically nothing and Willy Adames for what turned out to be a true rental (flipped for “prospects” the following season during a Cy-level season). 

Edited June 19, 2024 by chasfh

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Is that really random variation to be that far on either extreme of run scoring?

Depending on who the opposing pitcher is...

Yes.

[TigersForever1256]

Maybe it's time to unload Canha and Urshela while we can still get something of decent value.

[chasfh]

On 6/19/2024 at 2:17 PM, TigersForever1256 said:

Maybe it's time to unload Canha and Urshela while we can still get something of decent value.

If you believe Baseball Reference, Canha is sub-1 WAR player, and Urshela is literally at reaplcement value. Neither one starts on a playoff team, so we’ll get very little of value for either, if we can move them at all. Jack Flaherty is the prize.

[gehringer_2]

49 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If you believe Baseball Reference, Canha is sub-1 WAR player, and Urshela is literally at reaplcement value. Neither one starts on a playoff team, so we’ll get very little of value for either, if we can move them at all. Jack Flaherty is the prize.

Gio has a terrible reverse home/away OPS split (780 away/576 home). So you know he's going to go to some other team for nothing and immediately be a 2+ WAR player.

[casimir]

57 minutes ago, chasfh said:

If you believe Baseball Reference, Canha is sub-1 WAR player, and Urshela is literally at reaplcement value. Neither one starts on a playoff team, so we’ll get very little of value for either, if we can move them at all. Jack Flaherty is the prize.

If you believe Baseball Reference, WIlli Castro is a 5 WAR player over 700 PAs with the Twins.

[chasfh]

Willi was one of those guys I thought Harris might hang onto, same with Candelario, but as it turns out, I believe it was the noise from the media and fans about them being way too much to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Ilitch urged Harris to push them out the door, although I don't think we ever will. But all the numbers indicated that they were worth keeping around for a couple more years, anyway. Is it a shame? Probably not.

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, casimir said:

If you believe Baseball Reference, WIlli Castro is a 5 WAR player over 700 PAs with the Twins.

Willi has learned to hit left handed. That's no mirage. The question is why did it take going to the Twins?

Edited June 22, 2024 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Willi was one of those guys I thought Harris might hang onto, same with Candelario, but as it turns out, I believe it was the noise from the media and fans about them being way too much to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Ilitch urged Harris to push them out the door, although I don't think we ever will. But all the numbers indicated that they were worth keeping around for a couple more years, anyway. Is it a shame? Probably not.

I think for both it was more of a 50/50 call than it was definitive yes or no.  Candelario had seen success, but also failure.  He was only on the hook for one more season at most.  Castro was still young and cheap, but had his issues.

And who knows, maybe they needed a fresh start elsewhere for themselves anyway.  Maybe they don't see success if they stay in Detroit.  But then that begs the question, what's going on in Detroit?