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6/23/24 1:40 PM White Sox @ Tigers


IdahoBert

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2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Kreidler starts out with a miss on his right, comes back with a miss on his left. Maybe all the injuries have taken their toll, but we're not really seeing that great a glove.

Let’s all remember this the next time we’re pining for him to replace Baez.

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Of course the game I don't watch this week the offense goes off. Box score scouring and it's nice to see Keith have himself a great game, also couldn't help but notice that the White Sox have thrown 205 pitches in 8 innings. Maybe it happens more often than I think but its wild to me to see the 200+ number in total pitches category. 

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50 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Let’s all remember this the next time we’re pining for him to replace Baez.

Yep, I hate Baez as much as the next guy but the fact is there just simply isn't any more reliable options in the system at this point. Kinda sad really. 

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14 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

There are two players in Tiger history who have as many four hit games as Colt Keith before the age of 23. Their names are Ty Cobb and Al Kaline.

Just for kicks, I wanted to see what percent of batters the Tigers have had on their teams who were under 23. I have always suspected that historically we haven't carried as many very young players as some other franchises have. Here's what I found (original 16 teams in red):

Franchise Total Under 23 % U23
OAK 2873 345 12.0%
ATL 2706 287 10.6%
CLE 2992 304 10.2%
PIT 2962 300 10.1%
STL 3046 308 10.1%
WSN 1313 123 9.4%
SFG 2937 275 9.4%
LAD 2900 270 9.3%
HOU 1367 125 9.1%
CHW 2603 232 8.9%
TOR 1044 92 8.8%
DET 2628 231 8.8%
BAL 3060 261 8.5%
NYM 1607 136 8.5%
BOS 2590 219 8.5%
CIN 2910 241 8.3%
SDP 1262 102 8.1%
CHC 2621 210 8.0%
ANA 1493 116 7.8%
PHI 2826 214 7.6%
NYY 2374 172 7.2%
MIL 1490 107 7.2%
TEX 1181 84 7.1%
FLA 696 45 6.5%
KCR 1238 74 6.0%
MIN 1340 79 5.9%
SEA 1122 66 5.9%
TBD 599 28 4.7%
COL 755 35 4.6%
ARI 596 27 4.5%
Total 59131 5108 8.6%
Orig 16 42028 3869 9.2%

As it turns out we're right in the middle, historically, but notice how original 16s have higher percentages of Under 23s than expansion franchises do, I suspect because back in the early days a team was more likely to carry kids than they would be today. Taken against only Original 16s, we are slightly lower than average.

Notice the Yankees have the lowest percentage among the original 16s, perhaps maybe because they had more than their pick of players to sign and also had a deep farm system early on where they could bury young stars, and older players tend to be more seasoned, which may have helped lead to all those pennants.

On the other hand, the Phillies are the second lowest and they were almost always terrible, so ... there goes that theory. 😁

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26 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Start building that Keith statue now!

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Perez has also been a bright spot. I suppose to be fair, if you had added Perez and Keith to a lineup with Carpenter and a Meadows and Tork that hadn't backslid, we probably wouldn't be having 10 run weeks. OTOH, every team suffers injures and guys that slump - you have to have the depth to manage it.

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3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

I said in a GDT when he was barely hitting .200 that he would finish the season near .300. If he keeps using the whole field, he could be even better.

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Just now, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Yeah for the longest time I used .800 as the baselline for a good OPS and maybe .750 average and anything below .700 absolutely dreadful, like the Adam Everette's of the world. But now .800 is borderline elite, .750 is perfectly fine and while being in the high 600s isn't good it's not completely bottom of the barrel like I used to view it as. 

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4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Agree. I really don’t care about his defense—we knew his profile/upside is Jeff Kent. I suspect he’ll see more improvement in the 2nd half.  A .250/10/50 line in his rookie season would be fine by me and I think achievable.

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15 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Just the position where he ends up at...

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The next dilemma is what to do with the OF.  Perez deserves to stay but it looks like Parker will be back. Gio is so good at 3B you're not going to give Vierling as much time there as maybe was planned in the off-season, but he's your 2nd best hitter so that means he plays more OF so you will have Parker, Green, Perez, Vierling and then you get Carpenter back from the DL, plus Canha rotating through DH.

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27 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Perez has also been a bright spot. I suppose to be fair, if you had added Perez and Keith to a lineup with Carpenter and a Meadows and Tork that hadn't backslid, we probably wouldn't be having 10 run weeks. OTOH, every team suffers injures and guys that slump - you have to have the depth to manage it.

On the flip side we need to revise what one considers a quality start. I think 6 innings and 2 runs is a better measure of quality in this environment than 3 runs. 

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9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The next dilemma is what to do with the OF.  Perez deserves to stay but it looks like Parker will be back. Gio is so good at 3B you're not going to give Vierling as much time there as maybe was planned in the off-season, but he's your 2nd best hitter so that means he plays more OF so you will have Parker, Green, Perez, Vierling and then you get Carpenter back from the DL, plus Canha rotating through DH.

I don’t think we’ll be seeing Carpenter any time soon.  And Canha can be moved if there is any market for him. Malloy looks likely to get demoted for Parker.

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7 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I don’t think we’ll be seeing Carpenter any time soon.  And Canha can be moved if there is any market for him. Malloy looks likely to get demoted for Parker.

Thought I read recently that he was beginning baseball activities this week. Perhaps he'll be back right after the All-Star break, if not sooner. 

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

people need to re-orient expectation (including myself) given the drop in league BA. Keith just pulled his BA to a point above league average today. He still has plenty to work on but there's nothing to panic about with Colt.

Perez has also been a bright spot. I suppose to be fair, if you had added Perez and Keith to a lineup with Carpenter and a Meadows and Tork that hadn't backslid, we probably wouldn't be having 10 run weeks. OTOH, every team suffers injures and guys that slump - you have to have the depth to manage it.

I rarely look at batting average anymore, but his k% does look good.  His BB%, ISO and OPS all look terrible.  I don't think it's a matter of re-orienting expectations.  The results have just been bad.  I am encouraged that his recent results may indicate that he is making adjustments.    

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13 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I rarely look at batting average anymore, but his k% does look good.  His BB%, ISO and OPS all look terrible.  I don't think it's a matter of re-orienting expectations.  The results have just been bad.  I am encouraged that his recent results may indicate that he is making adjustments.    

I agree that BA has been replaced by better measures of a hitter's *productivity* but BA still measures an important skill, especially for a young player who has not grown into his full power potential. Contact skill is still fundamental to every other productive thing that happens on offense. So to me a young hittter's ability to maintain a good average is still important. And I think that is born out by what we are seeing in Malloy. In the minors his excellent walk rate pumped up his projection by higher level measures, but his inability to put the bat on good pitches in the zone is a problem for him against MLB pitching.

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26 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

....  The results have just been bad.  I am encouraged that his recent results may indicate that he is making adjustments.    

I think he's been streaky. And that's probably the result of adjustments going back and forth between him and the pitchers trying to shut him down. 

He hit .342 with a .881 OPS in May... that seems positive.

Followed by a .536 OPS in June. But .306 and a .787 OPS in the last 15 days...

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21 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I agree that BA has been replaced by better measures of a hitter's *productivity* but BA still measures an important skill, especially for a young player who has not grown into his full power potential. Contact skill is still fundamental to every other productive thing that happens on offense. So to me a young hittter's ability to maintain a good average is still important. And I think that is born out by what we are seeing in Malloy. In the minors his excellent walk rate pumped up his projection by higher level measures, but his inability to put the bat on good pitches in the zone is a problem for him against MLB pitching.

I think k rate measures contact skill better than batting average and it also stabilizes faster.  I'd never toss any stat, but batting average doesn't have a lot of use for me unless we are talking about runners on base splits.

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59 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think k rate measures contact skill better than batting average and it also stabilizes faster.  I'd never toss any stat, but batting average doesn't have a lot of use for me unless we are talking about runners on base splits.

I don't want a hitter who hits 25 home runs a year but has a very low batting average or on base percentage. It's why I was never impressed with Torkelson. His home runs are nice but he hasn't proven to be the type of player to put the team on his back and carry them.

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