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2024 NBA Draft Night


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2 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Couldn’t find a trade? Holland would’ve been there at 9 probably. Took a big swing on an athlete who can’t shoot. Vinson needs a raise and hasn’t even started yet. 

I see this sentiment a lot online but the Pistons obviously felt like he wouldn't be there at 9 and/or they were getting weak offers from Memphis. Charlotte was a prime trade down partner too and didn't pull the trigger so that's telling.

Edited by NYLion
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Those asking why the Holland hate and the Ausar love.

Neither can shoot a lick, so that is a tie.  But Thompson does a ton of things that help teams.  Already a good, borderline elite defender.  Not just on ball defense, great off ball as well.  Always in passing lanes disrupting.  Pretty good passer for his position.  Great rebounder for his position.  6.4 rebounds in 25 minutes is really good, especially since he spent most of his time at SF.  Has a pretty high BBIQ.

Holland is basically the complete opposite of all that.  Really low BBIQ, poor decision maker.  More turnovers than assists, doesn't create for others particularly well.  Not a great handle (Thompson needs work here too).  He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but so far he is really bad.  

Bad draft you get bad players and I don't think they passed on anyone great.  It definitely is not a good pick, and you could easily have picked him later in the draft.  But it was probably never going to be anyone that good at 5 anyway.  

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14 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Holland is basically the complete opposite of all that.  Really low BBIQ, poor decision maker.  More turnovers than assists, doesn't create for others particularly well.  Not a great handle (Thompson needs work here too).  He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but so far he is really bad.  

This doesn't quite match what I'm seeing in draft breakdowns of Holland.

They had him essentially playing PG with a ton of usage, so his turnovers were very bad to start the season - that's not his NBA role. His ability to slash and his moves getting to the basket are mostly what I'm seeing people praise, especially compared to Ausar who's handle is really bad.  He's a much better offensive player than Ausar and averaged about 20ppg with a 61.3 TS%. Got to the line a ton (top 10 in the G-League). Also seeing that he was a pretty good defender who gambled a bit too much, but had plenty of lock-down moments, steals, and blocks. Not sure I've heard anyone say he's "really bad" in that regard.

Clearly Ausar has the potential to be an elite defender and I'm not trying to say Holland is a world beater at all, but I think you might be underselling him a bit here.

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3 minutes ago, Betrayer said:

This doesn't quite match what I'm seeing in draft breakdowns of Holland.

They had him essentially playing PG with a ton of usage, so his turnovers were very bad to start the season - that's not his NBA role. His ability to slash and his moves getting to the basket are mostly what I'm seeing people praise, especially compared to Ausar who's handle is really bad.  He's a much better offensive player than Ausar and averaged about 20ppg with a 61.3 TS%. Got to the line a ton (top 10 in the G-League). Also seeing that he was a pretty good defender who gambled a bit too much, but had plenty of lock-down moments, steals, and blocks. Not sure I've heard anyone say he's "really bad" in that regard.

Clearly Ausar has the potential to be an elite defender and I'm not trying to say Holland is a world beater at all, but I think you might be underselling him a bit here.

It is pretty much statistically impossible to have a 61 TS% when you shoot 24% from three, especially with a very average FT%.  According to BR it was 55% which isn't awful, but it is below league average.  And I do agree he is probably a bit better on offense than Thompson.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/h/hollaro01d.html

Everyone says he has potential to be a good defender, including me if you look at the post.  But he isn't now.  What Vecenie said about him in his draft guide:

Quote

Defensively, Holland was not that effective this season in half-court settings, despite his significant upside on that end. He has horrendous closeout technique and gets driven by far too regularly. His defensive anticipation was lacking; he was regularly a step late rotating as a help defender, especially on kickouts and ball reversals. He should be a great scramble defender — and I think he will be one in the future — but just wasn’t this season. He often came out too high to contest good offensive players who could attack his front foot and get by him. He fell for a lot of pump fakes, and opponents began using his aggressive tendencies against him. Holland also got held up on too many screens. He didn’t take great routes to get around them and was a step slow recognizing where they came from. His spatial awareness was glaringly absent, as he tended to trust his athletic tools to recover out to shooters too much. This should get better as he ages, but it could be an early problem.

 

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No matt how you feel about the pick, you have to laugh at fans reactions.

Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, talked about Holland before the draft.  Now every idiot with a keyboard is saying how they really felt Holland was the best player in the draft.

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53 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

It is pretty much statistically impossible to have a 61 TS% when you shoot 24% from three, especially with a very average FT%.  According to BR it was 55% which isn't awful, but it is below league average.  And I do agree he is probably a bit better on offense than Thompson.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/h/hollaro01d.html

Everyone says he has potential to be a good defender, including me if you look at the post.  But he isn't now.  What Vecenie said about him in his draft guide:

 

Sorry, the 61% was a mis-read on my part. It was a comparison of Green and Holland. Holland's was 56.5% (G-League splits their stats, so you have to look at Regular season and Showcase).

I knew Vecenie was lower on Holland than others I've seen. However, it is interesting to see Sam call out his defensive anticipation when I just watched two Holland breakdown videos saying the exact opposite, especially in regards to his steals. Seems like we're all learning about this player as we go.

I would much rather have moved down and taken a similar player (or Carter) while gaining assets. I had Holland higher than Matas, but not this high. But at the same time I didn't want a role player (Knecht), because that's a waste of a draft pick on a 14 win team. In the end, I can't be mad at the pick, it's a swing for the fences on a high upside guy.

The thing I think people need to wrap their head around is that we shouldn't be thinking of this draft pick in terms of how he fits into the starting lineup in October and how many wins he gets us in 2024-25. That was the Weaver way. Instead, he should be playing about 10 minutes per game in a developmental role. Then you go out and get some vets for the short term.

Edited by Betrayer
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Givony didn't like Holland either.  Rated him 13th where Sam had him 10th.  I don't really follow anyone else since I feel they are the the two best by quite a large margin.  But they both have their misses every year.  The draft is hard.

Maybe things look different if Holland doesn't suffer that season ending injury and missed the last half of the year.

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holland is hollinger's #1 player. 

"The other reason to like Holland is his defense. His 3.5 percent steal rate stands out; some iffy gambles spiked the total, but there is real talent (and fire) on this end. Overall, his rates of rebounds, steals and blocks compare favorably to former Ignite lottery pick Dyson Daniels, for instance, who has now become an awesome defender at the NBA level. I think Holland has similar pathways to being elite at this end."

"On top of that, there’s the good ol’ eye test. I’ve seen Holland shoot a ton, both before games and during them, having watched him in person several times over the last year. He has a low push shot that needs some work, but he’s also not a 24 percent 3-point shooter. His 72.8 percent mark from the line is a more accurate tell on where he stands as a shooter — he isn't Stephen Curry, but his shot isn’t broken either. Just reaching the point where he makes one in three would make him a potent two-way wing, and that feels attainable."

"Lastly, consider Holland’s age. With a July 2005 birthdate, he’s nearly a full year younger than several other players vying for places with him in the high lottery: He's six months younger than Rob Dillingham, nine months younger than Stephon Castle or Matas Buzelis and more than a year younger than Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard. Teams get caught on class year, but birth year is what matters."

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he lists him as the "best bet in a bad class."

i'm fine with drafting him just for that reason alone.  its a bad class.  if he can make the shot respectable he could be a good wing player, i'm fine with that because we dont have any of those and that's what the nba is built on these days.

ausar thompson is going to be a great defender who can make some layups.  he will never shoot well enough to be anything more than that.  holland may end up in a similar situation shooting wise but without the amazing defense.  that would be the worst case scenario and is thus the one del focuses on.  however, in THIS class, he presented the most upside, imo.

i liked carter too.  i like the "trade back for assets" route also. if they did stay put and make the pick, the holland choice seems like they made the best out of a bad situation.

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a couple of "A" grades; I get the fit concerns with yet another poor shooter; unfortunately, I think that they are still in talent acquisition phase, so if he was the best guy on their board, I'm glad they took him, regardless of fit; he may turn out to be one of the best players in this draft; or not.

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12 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Woj just said that Memphis was working the phones non-stop to try to get Clingan until he was drafted by Portland at 7 and they pivoted to Edey. Maybe they didn’t offer enough, but clearly the interest was there. 

Cool, so my point stands I guess. 

You keep talking about I want/would've traded down. It takes two teams to trade. You can't just move down because you want to, it takes a team to move up it takes a fair offer. In this crazy weak draft that was gonna be hard to come by. It isn't as easy as saying oh he owuld have been then at 9 I would have just traded down. 

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My winner of the draft: Lakers.

Getting Knecht at 17 is stupid value.  Also a perfect fit for that team.  They are capped out and can't really do a ton to improve.  So getting a guy who is ready to play today is big.  Also putting an elite shooter around Lebron is always good.

Loser of the draft: Washington.

I don't like Sarr but its more than that.  How do you end up with 3 first round picks in the worst draft in 30 years?

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I don’t get the love for the traditional bigs in the lottery.   Neither guy looks overly athletic or have the ability to step outside.  We saw what happened to Gobert in the playoffs when teams matched up and forced him outside on defense.     What do I know but not sure how anything is different with Clingan or Edey.  

Edited by Hongbit
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8 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I don’t get the love for the traditional bigs in the lottery.   Neither guy looks overly athletic or have the ability to step outside.  We saw what happened to Gobert in the playoffs when teams matched up and forced him outside on defense.     What do I know but not sure how anything is different with Clingan or Edey.  

edey is going to be a monster on offense with Ja.

defense?  well...he'll block some shots sometimes.

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