LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?

[buddha]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

?

lol, "do you think the PLAYERS give a shit about the fans"?

i forgot a word in there...

[oblong]

6 minutes ago, buddha said:

lol, "do you think the PLAYERS give a shit about the fans"?

i forgot a word in there...

But that’s not what Manfred claimed. He said #1 priority.  Arguing over money is not not making fans #1.   That’s why it is bullshit. 

[Edman85]

54 minutes ago, chasfh said:

FWIW, Verducci just went on MLB state media and said straight up, without qualification, that “pay has gone down and the revenues have gone up”. This is well accepted throughout the game on all sides, and no one who seriously follows or covers the game would argue otherwise. If you want to argue that it’s not a problem, that’s something different. But you can’t argue that it’s not happening, or even that it appears that way only because of some twisty voodoo. 

I'm not saying it's twisty voodoo after looking up the data.

However, I did see something like "average salary has gone down," which ignores the roster rules that have led to churn on the back end of the roster and extending the left tail of the distribution. If two players are making minor league pay half the year and major league pay the full year, that will drag down the average without decreasing the total, if that makes sense.

[buddha]

50 minutes ago, oblong said:

But that’s not what Manfred claimed. He said #1 priority.  Arguing over money is not not making fans #1.   That’s why it is bullshit. 

well, that's what lee said.

also, i guess i just dont see what the big deal is over what manfred said.  every side spins pr in a public negotiation.  so what?

[oblong]

And people criticize it.  That’s how it works. 

[buddha]

And I think people are silly for criticizing it.  so here we are.

[Tiger337]

It's more a criticism of Manfred than what he said.  He's one of those people who I can't stand listening to because I know it's all BS.  

[casimir]

9 hours ago, Longgone said:

Hard to believe revenues have gone up since '19 with a partial season in '20 and attendance way off last year.

Hard to believe that this will help with recovering revenue in '21.

I saw some stuff last night about folks cancelling MLB.TV until blackout rights are removed, although it seems to be that this lockout is the last straw for these people.

[casimir]

9 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I'm not saying it's twisty voodoo after looking up the data.

However, I did see something like "average salary has gone down," which ignores the roster rules that have led to churn on the back end of the roster and extending the left tail of the distribution. If two players are making minor league pay half the year and major league pay the full year, that will drag down the average without decreasing the total, if that makes sense.

Is there a parallel between average age and average salary?  If teams are going younger because it makes more financial sense and because the production is relatively the same (and/or the younger player could appreciate in value while the older player typically depreciates in value), then where is the complaint in lower average salaries?

[gehringer_2]

the problem for the players union is that they are fighting the wrong battle. The teams near the cap are not the problem for baseball salaries, it's the teams nowhere near the cap who won't be affected at all by whatever the number is. How much difference will the lux tax number have on the Marlins or Pirates? Exactly none. If anything, Manfred is right that the tax money is one route for low revenue teams to spend more - thought without a mechanism to force that, that's also is an empty promise. But It's teams *with* "cap space", that, and pre-arb salaries that hold down the revenue split, not the cap. As a union in toto, the player's union is a total failure - all they are interested is protecting the interests of their own "1%" class to sign half billion dollar contracts, which again, does nothing for the most of their membership or median salaries at all.

Edited March 2, 2022 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Hard to believe that this will help with recovering revenue in '21.

I saw some stuff last night about folks cancelling MLB.TV until blackout rights are removed, although it seems to be that this lockout is the last straw for these people.

Once people cancel something they learn they didn't really need it.  I believe the pandemic taught many people that lesson.  For whatever reason they went without something, whether it's a product/service or a job, and after a period of time said "I don't need it".

No matter....  as long as there's gamblers the sport will be 'fine".   

[casimir]

9 minutes ago, oblong said:

Once people cancel something they learn they didn't really need it.  I believe the pandemic taught many people that lesson.  For whatever reason they went without something, whether it's a product/service or a job, and after a period of time said "I don't need it".

No matter....  as long as there's gamblers the sport will be 'fine".   

I keep forgetting about this aspect.

Speaking of, I wonder if Vegas has a line on the date of opening day and how many regular seasons teams will play this season?

[Motor City Sonics]

Doesn't matter if the players give a shit about the fans.  The players didn't do this. 

In our area opening day is like a holiday, a rite of spring and we're being denied it for the 3rd time in a row, but this time it's over greed.

We are finally.............FINALLY getting towards real normalcy again and with mandates being dropped and events starting up again it looks like March and April will be the months where things come together and baseball is f-ing that up. 

Rob Manfred is a bag of dirt and yes, he is only doing the owners' bidding, but based on his management of the game during his tenure, I feel like he's spearheading the strategy here.   He's clueless.    You're supposed leave something better than you found it and you can say that for Roger Goodell, Gary Bettman and Adam Silver, as much as we might hate them at times, their leagues are doing better than when they started.   Not Manfred.   Baseball's standing is dropping, attendance is down, fewer teams are competitive and most of the stars of the game would not be recognized and the fanbase's median age is rising sharply.     This won't help.    

[1776]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Hard to believe that this will help with recovering revenue in '21.

I saw some stuff last night about folks cancelling MLB.TV until blackout rights are removed, although it seems to be that this lockout is the last straw for these people.

My son must have seen the writing on the wall. He canceled his MLB.TV subscription two days ago.

[casimir]

1 minute ago, 1776 said:

My son must have seen the writing on the wall. He canceled his MLB.TV subscription two days ago.

I think I read something about a notice going out to previous/current subscribers.  I don't know exactly how the subscriptions work, I don't know if its season to season and you have to actively renew or if it renews passively.

[1776]

3 minutes ago, casimir said:

I think I read something about a notice going out to previous/current subscribers.  I don't know exactly how the subscriptions work, I don't know if its season to season and you have to actively renew or if it renews passively.

I’m not sure how the MLB.TV works but I recall he said he couldn’t access the playoffs last year. I don’t know if he could have with additional charges or it wasn’t an option, period.

I received an email from MLB Audio yesterday immediately after negotiations failed informing me that I am extended with no charge until the season is decided on and dates are announced. At that time I’ll be notified of updated costs and at that point I’ll have the option to remain or cancel. The audio has been $20 annually for several years now. I wouldn’t cancel unless they got stupid with pricing.

[buddha]

a temporary workstoppage will not affect baseball's fandom.

what is affecting baseball's fandom is that the game has become very slow in an age where people dont have that much attention span anymore.

as soon as there are baseball games to go to outside in the summer when its warm, there will be tons of fans in the seats.

just like there has been after every work stoppage.  the nhl cancelled a whole damn season and fans came back and the league expanded multiple times!   people dont drop sports because of labor disputes.

[RatkoVarda]

no reason for MLB to change things.

They are getting a larger and larger share of a larger and larger pie.

Passan's article the other day outlines everything perfectly:

MLB got a cap, which they have been hardening by rule and practice over the last 10 years. They got it without giving back anything at all, including no salary floor and no guaranteed revenue split, which would have required teams to open their books.

MLB is negotiating 9 figure deals with Apple and Peacock for streaming rights. The Pirates makes a profit as ownership has seem its investment increase more than 10 fold. This "dying" sport is awash in so many guaranteed revenue streams, it is almost impossible not to turn a profit.

[1776]

As a note, 40% of those on this board that participated in the poll at the top of this thread regarding the projected season start were incorrect. Too many optimists around here. 

[casimir]

 

[IdahoBert]

When much of the season was canceled in 2020 I discovered how little I really need this hobby. The part of me that’s a cynic and a nihilist thinks Pol Pot was pretty much right about burning the whole thing down (although I do disagree with his position on people who wore glasses). i’m really tired of this  

But I’m not a cynic and I’m not a nihilist and I know that as soon as baseball begins I’ll be back like a dog excited that his owner has come home at the end of the day. But I might bite him really hard. 

[Biff Mayhem]

10 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

although I do disagree with his position on people who wore glasses

You need to respect people who wear glasses. They paid money to see you.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

a temporary workstoppage will not affect baseball's fandom.

what is affecting baseball's fandom is that the game has become very slow in an age where people dont have that much attention span anymore.

as soon as there are baseball games to go to outside in the summer when its warm, there will be tons of fans in the seats.

 

It's the summer game and they'll still go to the games, but they'll lose a small percentage on top of losses they've already encountered.  I think they'll lose money through TV subscriptions too.  

I think what may save them is gambling, but even the gamblers might not like baseball as much as other sports.  It's too random.  

I do agree they need to speed up the game, but they are still competing with sports that are more exciting to new fans than baseball. 

[buddha]

28 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It's the summer game and they'll still go to the games, but they'll lose a small percentage on top of losses they've already encountered.  I think they'll lose money through TV subscriptions too.  

I think what may save them is gambling, but even the gamblers might not like baseball as much as other sports.  It's too random.  

I do agree they need to speed up the game, but they are still competing with sports that are more exciting to new fans than baseball. 

i doubt they lose much for long.  again, this is a temporary labor situation.  people get emotional and start talking about the damage to the game and that fans wont come back, yadda yadda yadda.  tjat's clickbait anf sports radio call in topics.  the fans have always come back.  

there are much larger issues with the game itself and the pace of play that are more problematic to continue the game's popularity.  management is trying to tweak that.  to me, that is the more important aspect of these negotiations, not the money.  the money will eventually work itself out.

the fact that the players have any say on that is ridiculous, and that's what's holding up meaningful changes being made.  they use it as a bargaining chip to get a few more scheckles out of the owners.

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, buddha said:

i doubt they lose much for long.  again, this is a temporary labor situation.  people get emotional and start talking about the damage to the game and that fans wont come back, yadda yadda yadda.  tjat's clickbait anf sports radio call in topics.  the fans have always come back.  

 

Maybe.    I think they bigger question may be whether fans will come back after discovering in the Covid era that there are other things they can do and even like better.  

On the other hand, attendance did drop for a few years after 1994 until they juiced up the balls and bodies.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Tiger337