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7/23/24 6:40PM Tigers @ Guardians


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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't get the constant drive to swap away every player that starts producing. Isn't the whole point to develop players who produce so you can have them on *your* team? In baseball the grass is almost never actually greener on the other side.

More that we have a bit of depth at outfield (if healthy) and if adding a part of that depth to increase the return in a Flaherty trade can help us with depth at other positions of need, then it should be considered.  
 

I will say that I like his profile as a guy who can hit for average and get on base, so I don’t WANT him traded- but when you look at other guys in our system that could have positive trade value, most of them either won’t be moved or are at a low point in value currently.  
 

Less about wanting to move Perez and more about getting even more likely of a max return in a situation like a Flaherty trade.

 

I would be happy if we could arrange to keep Flaherty, but I don’t think that’ll be the strategy here.  

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Just now, monkeytargets39 said:

More that we have a bit of depth at outfield (if healthy) and if adding a part of that depth to increase the return in a Flaherty trade can help us with depth at other positions of need, then it should be considered.  
 

I will say that I like his profile as a guy who can hit for average and get on base, so I don’t WANT him traded- but when you look at other guys in our system that could have positive trade value, most of them either won’t be moved or are at a low point in value currently.  
 

Less about wanting to move Perez and more about getting even more likely of a max return in a situation like a Flaherty trade.

 

I would be happy if we could arrange to keep Flaherty, but I don’t think that’ll be the strategy here.  

I don't know what their chances of signing Flaherty themselves are, maybe nil, but if they are going to contend in the next three years they are going to need more arms to add to Skubal, Reese, and Casey-Maybe-Mize than just Jackson Jobe and crossed fingers on Gipson-Long. To my view we are just a far from having a sustainable rotation as we are from having a sustainable starting 8 in the field so I don't see any particular advantage in a pitching trade other than in Flaherty's case if he's unsignable or if the Tigers med staff doesn't believe in Skubal's health future.

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23 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't get the constant drive to swap away every player that starts producing. Isn't the whole point to develop players who produce so you can have them on *your* team? In baseball the grass is almost never actually greener on the other side.

Look at Tampa Bay. They rarely pay stars long term, they constantly develop talent and then trade it for younger team controlled prospects. They have to keep their payroll low, as does Kansas City. This does make for some lean years but excellent drafting and very smart trades keeps talent coming thru their system. The Tigers could use more talent at the ML level but a trade offer for Skubal should only be made if some team wants him so badly that they'll overpay.

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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't know what their chances of signing Flaherty themselves are, maybe nil, but if they are going to contend in the next three years they are going to need more arms to add to Skubal, Reese, and Casey-Maybe-Mize than just Jackson Jobe and crossed fingers on Gipson-Long. To my view we are just a far from having a sustainable rotation as we are from having a sustainable starting 8 in the field so I don't see any particular advantage in a pitching trade other than in Flaherty's case if he's unsignable or if the Tigers med staff doesn't believe in Skubal's health future.

I agree with all of that.  We also need to get past the point where we are signing one or two pitchers each off season in hopes of them bouncing back and becoming trade options.

If we sign a pitcher in the offseason, whether it’s Flaherty or someone else, I’d prefer it to be someone that can be very confidently looked at as a 3-5 year piece of a contending rotation.  We’ve gotten fortunate with Lorenzen and now with Flaherty, but more often than not those back end of the rotation cheap pick ups don’t work out.

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4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't know what their chances of signing Flaherty themselves are, maybe nil, but if they are going to contend in the next three years they are going to need more arms to add to Skubal, Reese, and Casey-Maybe-Mize than just Jackson Jobe and crossed fingers on Gipson-Long. To my view we are just a far from having a sustainable rotation as we are from having a sustainable starting 8 in the field so I don't see any particular advantage in a pitching trade other than in Flaherty's case if he's unsignable or if the Tigers med staff doesn't believe in Skubal's health future.

If they are serious about contending over the next few years they will need to sign a guy like Flaherty. So why not just sign the bird in the hand, assuming he is amenable. And maybe they are trying, I don’t know. 

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38 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

If we're trading Perez it would have to be like the Paredes for Meadows deal. Trading him for a more established, higher level player. That trade obviously backfired terribly, but that would be the archetype. I don't see that as all that likely.

Wenceel is not Paredes, so that won’t happen, at least not this year. 

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24 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Look at Tampa Bay. They rarely pay stars long term, they constantly develop talent and then trade it for younger team controlled prospects. They have to keep their payroll low, as does Kansas City. This does make for some lean years but excellent drafting and very smart trades keeps talent coming thru their system. The Tigers could use more talent at the ML level but a trade offer for Skubal should only be made if some team wants him so badly that they'll overpay.

the Trick for the Rays has been success developing guys from their drafts and INT signings like Austin Meadows that performed well enought to trade for some thing younger and cheaper to keep the wheel turning. You can say they've done exactly the opposite of the Tigers in recent years. Instead of letting Suarez, Paredes, Adames, develop in Detroit, get close to expensive and then trade them to get younger, Detroit traded those guys when their value was low to get *older*. Not the way to run a low cost team, though we know Dombrowski wasn't necessarily interested in running a low cost team!

But to bring this back to Perez, he looks to me exactly like the kind of guy a Tampa Bay would hold onto until he has established himself, his value was higher and his cost was about to go up. And that all comes down to being right about both your own players and the players you scout to pursue.

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22 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Where does Perez play when Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Vierling and Malloy are all healthy?

Should we bank on that ever happening? And is it a long term problem? Vierling is going to be candidate to move after 2025 anyway and Malloy is probably your DH.

Or maybe Perez fizzles out. But I think you have to give guys like Wenceel a more serious shot to build their value than the Tigers have been prone to do in the past if the Rays are going to be your template.

Edited by gehringer_2
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42 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

If they are serious about contending over the next few years they will need to sign a guy like Flaherty. So why not just sign the bird in the hand, assuming he is amenable. And maybe they are trying, I don’t know. 

Jack is a big union guy, so I would be very shocked if he did not go into free agency and get a jackpot contract. I doubt it, but that contract could be with Detroit.

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36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the Trick for the Rays has been success developing guys from their drafts and INT signings like Austin Meadows that performed well enought to trade for some thing younger and cheaper to keep the wheel turning. You can say they've done exactly the opposite of the Tigers in recent years. Instead of letting Suarez, Paredes, Adames, develop in Detroit, get close to expensive and then trade them to get younger, Detroit traded those guys when their value was low to get *older*. Not the way to run a low cost team, though we know Dombrowski wasn't necessarily interested in running a low cost team!

But to bring this back to Perez, he looks to me exactly like the kind of guy a Tampa Bay would hold onto until he has established himself, his value was higher and his cost was about to go up. And that all comes down to being right about both your own players and the players you scout to pursue.

That's why the only thing fans can do is trust the Scott Harris team. Unnamed scouts are the key. Who are the scouts in Tampa? Those are the baseball types Harris hopefully has in place, helping him to make good baseball decisions. Fans (me included) need to remember he hasn't even been here 2 years. Realistically, his teams should start competing by 2026 or 2027. (I'm impatient)

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I honestly forgot this game was even happening. I got caught up in it being 103° again and thanks to nearby fires we had an air quality rating of almost 300 and I was nauseous all day. At least we weren’t shut out. But with so many arms out of commission tonight’s game, may be predictive of a lot of games to come. I’m just glad we weren’t scoreless.  

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3 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Where does Perez play when Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Vierling and Malloy are all healthy?

He’s an interesting dude.  Seems to mostly have solid AB’s.  I was a fan of his in the minors so it’s nice to see him achieve some early success.  And he’s the same age as a lot of dudes in AA/AAA ball.

Looks like he could pop 15 dingers and steal 20-25 bases per season. Great production if he could have stayed at 2B, not as impressive in a corner OF spot.

Valuable guy to have on the team to plug in where needed.

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9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't know what their chances of signing Flaherty themselves are, maybe nil, but if they are going to contend in the next three years they are going to need more arms to add to Skubal, Reese, and Casey-Maybe-Mize than just Jackson Jobe and crossed fingers on Gipson-Long. To my view we are just a far from having a sustainable rotation as we are from having a sustainable starting 8 in the field so I don't see any particular advantage in a pitching trade other than in Flaherty's case if he's unsignable or if the Tigers med staff doesn't believe in Skubal's health future.

Agree.  I know people like to focus on a possible return from Baltimore for Skubal being chock full of position players.  But the Tigers need to find some pitching prospects as well.  The depth that was talked about going into this season has weathered away pretty quickly.

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9 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Where does Perez play when Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Vierling and Malloy are all healthy?

Perhaps one of those other OFs not named Greene becomes trade bait for a prospect or two?  Or maybe they make some changes on the IF which includes Vierling as a starting 3B?  Greene plays every day.  Now its down to Meadows, Perez, Carpenter, and Malloy for 2 OF spots and DH.

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10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

If the Tigers didn't have bad luck tonight they wouldn't have any at all.

I don't know.  McKinstry stealing the run was fortunate.  Cleveland had a couple of base running mistakes.  Rogers probably should have been cut down going from 2nd to 3rd on a ground out to the left of SS later in the game, but the throw went to 1B.

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42 minutes ago, casimir said:

Perhaps one of those other OFs not named Greene becomes trade bait for a prospect or two?  Or maybe they make some changes on the IF which includes Vierling as a starting 3B?  Greene plays every day.  Now it’s down to Meadows, Perez, Carpenter, and Malloy for 2 OF spots and DH.

Also, do we carry 5 (6 if you include Vierling and we go Jung or FA at 3B) outfielders so that we can platoon them?  
 

A Malloy/Carpenter platoon at DH would be productive, but is that how you want to approach roster construction?  Only then can you play Greene full time and then also platoon Meadows and Vierling.  Then Perez in RF as a switch hitter.

Assuming you’d want to continue to keep Ibanez as a platoon option for Jung/Keith as well. 
 

That really puts an emphasis on what to do at SS and 1B going forward.  Assuming everyone is healthy of course.  
 

Do we stick with Javy and a lousy backup SS who only would ever need to play SS?  Does Keith move to first base and Jung to 2B?  Lots of interesting possibilities if we keep the roster as constructed going forward.  Also ignoring what could come in a Flaherty deadline move.

 

 

Edited by monkeytargets39
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8 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Also, do we carry 5 (6 if you include Vierling and we go Jung or FA at 3B) outfielders so that we can platoon them?  A Malloy/Caroent

 

I'd be fine with a Carpenter/Malloy platoon in theory, but would want to see the rest of the roster.

Is Jung ready for MLB quite yet, both offensively and defensively?  Who plays 1B next season?  Does Keith stay at 2B?

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23 minutes ago, casimir said:

I'd be fine with a Carpenter/Malloy platoon in theory, but would want to see the rest of the roster.

Is Jung ready for MLB quite yet, both offensively and defensively?  Who plays 1B next season?  Does Keith stay at 2B?

I’d say that offensively Jung would be an upgrade over Canha and Urshela.  I’d also argue that while his defense may not be a plus, he would be better defensively at 2B than Keith has been.

Assuming Flaherty and Kelly get dealt but not assuming what the return would be, I’d be inclined to wish for a 2025 look of:

 

C- Rogers/Dingler

1B- Keith

2B- Jung/Ibanez

SS- Baez

3B- Vierling

LF- Greene

CF- Meadows

RF- Perez 

DH- Carpenter/Malloy.  
 

Thats 12 out of an ideal 13.
 

Ideally we get a SS/3B mlb ready prospect in a trade or decide to sign a FA for it and then platoon Meadows and Vierling in CF instead.  Its not out of line to expect a .700+ OPS from every position group aside from Javy and catcher if everyone can stay healthy and play to reasonable expectations 

Edited by monkeytargets39
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6 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

... Looks like he could pop 15 dingers and steal 20-25 bases per season. Great production if he could have stayed at 2B, not as impressive in a corner OF spot.

Valuable guy to have on the team to plug in where needed.

Has anyone ever gotten over the yips?

I have an earnest yearning to see the dude play at 2B.

As you say, valuable guy that can not only pop 15-ish dingers and steal 20-25 bases, but also, as a switch-hitter, doesn't get bounced out of the lineup when there's a pitching change. That's also valuable at times. (PS: I didn't look at his splits so if he's good one one side and bad on the other... nevermind.)

But if he could get over the yips, and play not only all 3 OF spots but also 2B... extra value.

And I think he's also able to play CF... not as good as the other true CF'ers on the team... but in a pinch, he can manage. IMO.

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

Agree.  I know people like to focus on a possible return from Baltimore for Skubal being chock full of position players.  But the Tigers need to find some pitching prospects as well.  The depth that was talked about going into this season has weathered away pretty quickly.

So I said earlier that the Tigers shouldn't "FORCE" a pitching prospect into a trade package just because they have a "need" to add an arm... And I'm sticking with that.

But...

If Cade Povich is part of a trade package for Skubal, just for example, and he's there because the Tigers wanted him, and they wanted him because they think he can be a dominant MLB starter... Then of course I would be on board with that. As long as they are trading for a guy that they believe in his ability... that's all that matters. So between Flaherty, Skubal (who might NOT be traded), and Kelly... Maybe Harris spots a AAA starter that he really wants and gets in return.

The key, to me, is to not force it though. Even if we get zero pitchers back... there are other ways to obtain pitchers. Offseason trades, FA signings, Jobe is ready for MLB (if that's true). "Reaching" for a guy in a trade because of a perceived need might end up with us obtaining another Joey Wentz. I would rather Harris find another Reese Olson, or better, IF he's out there and available in one of these trades.

IMO.

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