7/23/24 6:40PM Tigers @ Guardians

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

... I'm saying that going into 2025, it would be reckless to expect Jobe to be a full fledged member of the rotation and for him to be expected to compete at a high level for a full season while needing to make a huge jump in workload...

...

This I think...

Everyone would be 100% in agreement with.

Everything else, IMO, is simply managing around this fact. And the Org will do whatever it needs to do, to manage around it.

[monkeytargets39]

1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

Very few starters throw 200 innings anymore, Id say the new benchmark is around 150 and I think Jobe could be perfectly capable of getting close to that number next year.

I don't think teams prescribe to the old line of thinking Verducci came up with where you only increase innings by 20 or so a year. 

If Jobe can get to 80 or 90 this year including the AFL theres no reason that he can't get to the 140-150 needed to be a regular starter in today's MLB next year. 

We or course are still gonna need to go get another starter or 2 from outside the org but we were gonna have to do that regardless of Jobe.

Very true, however he’s sitting just over 40 innings pitched and we are almost to August.  He had something like 66 innings last year.  He’s also had injuries pop up each of the last two years that has cost him some time.  Getting him up to the 90-100 innings range for the rest of the year sounds great, but let’s get him there first.

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

... but I would rather we ration his innings early next season, then bring him up for the second half to get that experience (assuming he does not force his way north in March, of course).

I would rather not do any early rationing, unless they're skipping an opportunistic early season start (rainouts and such...).

And I'm pretty certain he will easily force his way onto the Opening Day roster.

But I'm just guessin'...

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Very true, however he’s sitting just over 40 innings pitched and we are almost to August.  He had something like 66 innings last year.  He’s also had injuries pop up each of the last two years that has cost him some time.  Getting him up to the 90-100 innings range for the rest of the year sounds great, but let’s get him there first.

12 starts at 5 innings each gets him to 100+.

Between August & September, and the AFL, and barring any injuries, that would appear to me to be easily attainable.

[monkeytargets39]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

12 starts at 5 innings each gets him to 100+.

Between August & September, and the AFL, and barring any injuries, that would appear to me to be easily attainable.

Sure, but he just went April through the last week of July with only 11 starts and 41 innings.  So it could very easily go either way.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, monkeytargets39 said:

To clarify my actual point here:

 

I’m not trying to say Jobe isn’t allowed to be promoted to Detroit or that him getting innings there is a problem.

 

Im saying that going into 2025, it would be reckless to expect Jobe to be a full fledged member of the rotation and for him to be expected to compete at a high level for a full season while needing to make a huge jump in workload.  If we are talking about having him work out of the pen or as a spot starter, that’s an entirely different situation.

 

I think we all agree that if we can have a successful trade deadline and further address needs in the offseason that we should be able to further compete for a playoff spot next year.

 

Assuming the loss of Flaherty, we are looking at a most likely scenario of Skubal/Olson/Mize, and then the internal options of Manning/Maeda/Montero/Jobe/Gipson-Long.  It’s pretty apparent that Maeda is cooked, and the org seems to have soured quite a bit on Manning being a viable option.

 

If anyone here sees Keider Montero as a viable 4 or 5 starter on a playoff caliber team, please elaborate on why.

 

So you have the two wild cards with Jobe and SGL.  SGL has good peripherals and would be a good choice for a spot pending his health.  Jobe, while clearly capable from an ability standpoint, is still very young and hasn’t gone through the workload increase to suggest that he’s going to be able to go a full season as a starter without having periods where we limit innings, skip him in the rotation, or shut him down for a time period.

 

If we start him in the rotation and he does really well but runs out of gas midway through the year and we have to take measures to work around that—is it really beneficial to the team?  All of those extra innings and starts are going to be picked up by our garbage heap of Faedo/Wentz/Manning/Maeda/etc.  Would it not make more sense to get Jobe his innings across multiple levels and deploy him strategically in Detroit rather than go into the year relying on him to provide something that he may not physically be capable of?  
 

My argument for next years rotation is not that Jobe doesn’t have the ability, it’s that if we are trying to position ourselves to contend, we need to bring in at least one starter who has a strong track record of being reliable and competitive and if that means that we don’t unleash Jobe fully until 2026, then so be it.  But heading into the year expecting Jobe to be a major part of the team is short-sighted.

 

For all I care he can get innings at whatever level the organization wants to get him innings at.  Just temper the expectations of him taking on a full workload at the major league level next year.

I would be very surprised if we went into next season with the exact same pitching staff minus Flaherty. I would think Harris picks up at least one more starter and at least one more high-leverage pen arm.