2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason

[Motor City Sonics]

Baddoo has such an odd story.  Hits .260 with dramatic moments in the year where he was assured that he wouldn't be sent down, but as soon as the threat of the minors came around, he kind of fell off  a cliff.    There's still potential there, but we can't afford to wait for it now. 

[Motor City Sonics]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

It might be less a matter of whether the owner will open up the wallet and cheap out, as it is a matter of we are not yet in a position to commit five-plus years to fringey-All-Star-level players.

That said, if they had to give five years to anyone, Flaherty is probably the best bet of anyone not named Burnes. Even with his years wandering in the desert, he has an early track record of great success, and he did really well under this coaching regime. If the price for Flaherty is five years, I’m guessing this is going to be one of the tougher decision Harris and Ilitch are going to have to make.

They also need to weigh whether they will have to pay anything for Mize after this year.   It's trending towards no, but I wouldn't give up on him just yet.   But this is the make or break year for Mize's career.   He had his TJ buffer year, now he has to show.    If they cough up 25 mil a year for Jack, who else will they be paying in 2029/2030?    That's a big part of this decision. 

[chasfh]

10 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Well…

500 Akil Baddoos = 1 Juan Soto

No amount of Akil Baddoos could equal even one Juan Soto. 

[gehringer_2]

47 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

They also need to weigh whether they will have to pay anything for Mize after this year.   It's trending towards no, but I wouldn't give up on him just yet.   But this is the make or break year for Mize's career.   He had his TJ buffer year, now he has to show.    If they cough up 25 mil a year for Jack, who else will they be paying in 2029/2030?    That's a big part of this decision. 

Indeed, this season will tell, but TBH, Mize at his best has never shown the kind of stuff that Jack has, so if Mize is figuring into a decision about Flaherty they better be confident he's going to do something more than he's ever done before. Big guys with power arms will get a lot of chances, but sometimes they are just Buck Farmer.

Edited December 18, 2024 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Baddoo has such an odd story.  Hits .260 with dramatic moments in the year where he was assured that he wouldn't be sent down, but as soon as the threat of the minors came around, he kind of fell off  a cliff.    There's still potential there, but we can't afford to wait for it now. 

he does have an awesomely quick bat, which is probably what led the Tigers to think he had the potential to be a better hitter, but getting the quick bat on the ball has been a problem 😥. If he was a good defender, it would help his cause, but he's not and his arm is unreliable at best.

He is another guy whose MiLB OPS is padded by a good walk rate, but walk rates always fall off on the transition to the majors. Baddoo's walk rate in Det was good (~10%) but still a drop from his MiLB rate (~15%). As this org looks for guys who walk more (e.g. JHM) we need to be aware of how much MiLB walks are contributing to a guy's MiLB OPS before we get too excited about them.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

It might be less a matter of whether the owner will open up the wallet and cheap out, as it is a matter of we are not yet in a position to commit five-plus years to fringey-All-Star-level players.

 

If Skubal is gone within two years (which seems likely), how long is it going to take before they are ready to sign players?  Then maybe they have to move Greene in a few years...I say the time to make a playoff push is now.  That doesn't mean I am endorsing desperate moves.  It just means that I think they shouldn't shy away from a reasonable deal because they aren't "ready".   

Edited December 18, 2024 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If Skubal is gone within two years (which seems likely), how long is it going to take before they are ready to sign players?  Then maybe they have to move Greene in a few years...I say the time to make a playoff push is now.  That doesn't mean I am endorsing desperate moves.  It just means that I think they shouldn't shy away from a reasonable deal because they aren't "ready".   

The key is 'reasonable.' Will there be any reasonable deals signed or the do the rich clubs have so much revenue that any player with more than a pulse gets silly dollars and years?

[ewsieg]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

It might be less a matter of whether the owner will open up the wallet and cheap out, as it is a matter of we are not yet in a position to commit five-plus years to fringey-All-Star-level players.

That said, if they had to give five years to anyone, Flaherty is probably the best bet of anyone not named Burnes. Even with his years wandering in the desert, he has an early track record of great success, and he did really well under this coaching regime. If the price for Flaherty is five years, I’m guessing this is going to be one of the tougher decision Harris and Ilitch are going to have to make.

Assuming we're in a pre-Pudge type situation and we need to overpay a bit to get someone here, Flaherty is probably my pick, especially with so many questions in the rotation still.  He's still 29 as well, end of the contract may not be bad.   

That said, I'm with you, I'm not sure if we're in a position yet to commit.  End of last year was fun, but I think if you step back you realize we still have so many 'what ifs' on this team, 1 or 2 long term free agents are not likely the answer.   But it's not my money and the Ilitches have plenty of that, so let's go!

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Assuming we're in a pre-Pudge type situation and we need to overpay a bit to get someone here, Flaherty is probably my pick, especially with so many questions in the rotation still.  He's still 29 as well, end of the contract may not be bad.   

That said, I'm with you, I'm not sure if we're in a position yet to commit.  End of last year was fun, but I think if you step back you realize we still have so many 'what ifs' on this team, 1 or 2 long term free agents are not likely the answer.   But it's not my money and the Ilitches have plenty of that, so let's go!

I'd argue the Tiger's current state is way beyond 'Pre-Pudge' but be that as it may, the more basic argument that Mid-American cities are not the 1st choice of free agents remains, regardless of whether the teams are good or not - simply because the secondary revenue potential is lower.

Objectively, the team that starts the season in '25 is going to look a lot more like the team that finished by playing 600 ball for 2 1/2 months than the team that stumbled out of the gate in '24 so I don't know how much more ready they will ever be. 

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd argue the Tiger's current state is way beyond 'Pre-Pudge' but be that as it may, the more basic argument that Mid-American cities are not the 1st choice of free agents remains, regardless of whether the teams are good or not - simply because the secondary revenue potential is lower.

Objectively, the team that starts the season in '25 is going to look a lot more like the team that finished by playing 600 ball for 2 1/2 months than the team that stumbled out of the gate in '24 so I don't know how much more ready they will ever be. 

It will look more like the team that finished the season, but how much of that pitching perfomance they can recapture is the question.  

[gehringer_2]

20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It will look more like the team that finished the season, but how much of that pitching perfomance they can recapture is the question.  

More of it if they get Flaherty!

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

If Skubal is gone within two years (which seems likely), how long is it going to take before they are ready to sign players?  Then maybe they have to move Greene in a few years...I say the time to make a playoff push is now.  That doesn't mean I am endorsing desperate moves.  It just means that I think they shouldn't shy away from a reasonable deal because they aren't "ready".   

What's an example of a reasonable deal you think they are being presented with, that they should jumped on? Or, if not exactly being presented with, what would be a good example of a reasonable deal they should do, in your view?

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

What's an example of a reasonable deal you think they are being presented with, that they should jumped on? Or, if not exactly being presented with, what would be a good example of a reasonable deal they should do, in your view?

I am not playing that game.  Anything anybody suggests will be shot down, but every year there are some contract surprises in both directions.  The following players have been linked to the Tigers and I think they are interesting:

Bregman

Walker

Kim

Flaherty

Buehler

Sasaki

Heaney

Yates 

 

[ewsieg]

If ownership doesn't want to spend, or mgmt doesn't think we should spend yet, I'd like to see a Maeda like contract for Walker Buehler.

[papalawrence]

Tigers have also been linked to Bohm and supposedly Philly is asking for the moon, which seems silly. Please avoid.

I think once Sasaki signs with LAD (I'm jaded about LAD at this point) other dominos will fall. Or Little Caesars. Pizza Pizza

[Motor City Sonics]

50 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Tigers have also been linked to Bohm and supposedly Philly is asking for the moon, which seems silly. Please avoid.

I think once Sasaki signs with LAD (I'm jaded about LAD at this point) other dominos will fall. Or Little Caesars. Pizza Pizza

I think it's delusional to think Sasaki is signing anywhere BUT L.A. -- and that means the Dodgers 90% and the Angels 8% and about 2% left over for the Giants or Mariners. 

[monkeytargets39]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

No amount of Akil Baddoos could equal even one Juan Soto. 

I just meant salary wise

[monkeytargets39]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I am not playing that game.  Anything anybody suggests will be shot down, but every year there are some contract surprises in both directions.  The following players have been linked to the Tigers and I think they are interesting:

Bregman

Walker

Kim

Flaherty

Buehler

Sasaki

Heaney

Yates 

 

I’m hoping for Kim, Flaherty and Buehler.

Which means we will get Bregman and Heaney….

[oblong]

Personally I'm not high on Bregman doing that well here.  It would be a splashy signing for sure but I am fearful of another dog contract in a few years hanging around the team.

But I also trust Harris to be able to see that kind of thing and not make a mistake like that.  If they sign him it will be for the right reasons.  I won't pretend to know more than them.

[monkeytargets39]

18 minutes ago, oblong said:

Personally I'm not high on Bregman doing that well here.  It would be a splashy signing for sure but I am fearful of another dog contract in a few years hanging around the team.

But I also trust Harris to be able to see that kind of thing and not make a mistake like that.  If they sign him it will be for the right reasons.  I won't pretend to know more than them.

I see no alternative to a 6 year Bregman deal becoming anything besides another payroll boat anchor.

[papalawrence]

58 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I think it's delusional to think Sasaki is signing anywhere BUT L.A. -- and that means the Dodgers 90% and the Angels 8% and about 2% left over for the Giants or Mariners. 

He is reportedly very close with Yu Darvish. SD is a very real possibility.

[RatkoVarda]

21 minutes ago, monkeytargets39 said:

I see no alternative to a 6 year Bregman deal becoming anything besides another payroll boat anchor.

this is true, unless it is not

if they reach the WS twice in the first 4 years and win it once, would that be OK? or would 2 years of minimal production be too inefficient for you?

[Tigermojo]

9 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

this is true, unless it is not

if they reach the WS twice in the first 4 years and win it once, would that be OK? or would 2 years of minimal production be too inefficient for you?

How about zero years? Cue Javy Baez striking out against old lady.

[Tiger337]

Bregman may very well fail, but I don't think Baez is a good comparison. In fact, they are opposites in terms of skillsets.  Baez has always had perhaps the worst plate discipline in baseball even when he was good.  Bregman has close to the best BB/K ratio in the baseball throughout his career.  

[CMU97]

5 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Assuming we're in a pre-Pudge type situation and we need to overpay a bit to get someone here, Flaherty is probably my pick, especially with so many questions in the rotation still.  He's still 29 as well, end of the contract may not be bad.   

 

Jordan Zimmerman was also 29 when we signed him. (turned 30 early in 2016).