2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Agreed. Tigers had their chance but decided Chris needed the money stashed away instead of putting a winning team together. Maybe we'll get lucky and contend in spite of him. Like we did last season, that was fun.

I’m not so sure the Tigers have so much talent of a chance to sign Bregman. I think the only way we get him is that we are literally the last team standing.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Sports_Freak said:

Correct. A player who can contribute for 162 possible games over a 6 inning pitcher who pitches about 30 games a season.

I don’t believe the contribution of a position player to a game is the same as the contribution of a pitcher to a game, in terms of winning. I think a pitcher has way more impact on winning across 30 games than any position player does across the same 30 games.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

This is not the same as Presley would block a trade to 29 other teams and accept a trade only to the Cubs. I read this as meaning that of the three teams named that showed interest—Cubs, Tigers, or Blue Jays—the only possible trade partner remaining would be the Cubs.

Because he said the Cubs would be the only team he would go to. Harris should only have spend 5 minutes after hearing that. Incompetent.

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I don’t believe the contribution of a position player to a game is the same as the contribution of a pitcher to a game, in terms of winning. I think a pitcher has way more impact on winning across 30 games than any position player does across the same 30 games.

Even if you find a pitcher who's the best in history and goes 30-0, there's still 132 other games to play. So a team full of scrubs and minor leaguers who play really cheap isn't going to be better because a pitcher is sitting in the BP for 4 games out of every 5. I would take a position player, a good position player, any day. What do starters average anyway, a bit over 6 ip every 5 games?

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I’m not so sure the Tigers have so much talent of a chance to sign Bregman. I think the only way we get him is that we are literally the last team standing.

We had our chance and sat on our hands. Harris was busy working on a trade for a player who doesn't wanna come here and has a no trade clause? First question,will he waive it? No? OK, have a nice day.

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Because he said the Cubs would be the only team he would go to. Harris should only have spend 5 minutes after hearing that. Incompetent.

Where did he say that?

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

Even if you find a pitcher who's the best in history and goes 30-0, there's still 132 other games to play. So a team full of scrubs and minor leaguers who play really cheap isn't going to be better because a pitcher is sitting in the BP for 4 games out of every 5. I would take a position player, a good position player, any day. What do starters average anyway, a bit over 6 ip every 5 games?

And even if you have the best position player in the world, you still have eight other positions you have to fill to help win the other eight-ninths of the games you play. One player can’t win 162 games all by himself for you.

 

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

We had our chance and sat on our hands. Harris was busy working on a trade for a player who doesn't wanna come here and has a no trade clause? First question,will he waive it? No? OK, have a nice day.

Yes, you have a nice day too! 

[oblong]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And even if you have the best position player in the world, you still have eight other positions you have to fill to help win the other eight-ninths of the games you play. One player can’t win 162 games all by himself for you.

 

The best position player comes to bat 4-5 times a game.  Even during a hot streak he will succeed 2-3 times at best during that game. Even then, you have to rely on others being on base, or doing their own success or hope for a HR.  Otherwise a hit by itself does you no good.  A top pitcher will impact over half the game time.  This isn't basketball where a top player is involved in the entire play.

I'm ignoring defense.

 

[gehringer_2]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And even if you have the best position player in the world, you still have eight other positions you have to fill to help win the other eight-ninths of the games you play. One player can’t win 162 games all by himself for you.

 

so to pick up where Rob left off - even a short stop only averages 4 chances and most are routine. 2 chances per game is more typical for other fielders.

Edited Tuesday at 01:56 PM by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

so to pick up where Rob left off - even a short stop only averages 4 chances and most are routine. 2 chances per game is more typical for other fielders.

All true. I think the original point stands that a pitcher has more of an outsized impact on a game than any of the other positions, by a factor of multiples, and that a pitcher is not worth only one-fifth of an everyday player because he pitches in only one-fifth of the games. 

[oblong]

To put into practice... would the Tigers have had a better record if you remove Tarik Skubal and replace him with Bobby Witt Jr?

I don't think so.  It's an extreme example because for a lot of the season the SS slot was so bad but I think it's a good illustration. 

[RedTeamGo!]

16 hours ago, chasfh said:

I’m not so sure the Tigers have so much talent of a chance to sign Bregman. I think the only way we get him is that we are literally the last team standing.

I was listening to MLB radio yesterday on drive home from office and, I forget who it was, but one of their former GMs they have mentioned that he heard Bregman just really doesn't want to live in Detroit. I think you are right, will have to be last team standing, it sounds to me like he simply wants to stay in Houston

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, RedTeamGo! said:

I was listening to MLB radio yesterday on drive home from office and, I forget who it was, but one of their former GMs they have mentioned that he heard Bregman just really doesn't want to live in Detroit. I think you are right, will have to be last team standing, it sounds to me like he simply wants to stay in Houston

which sets up a classic negotiation. Houston knows he wants to stay so they want the hometown discount, Bregman wants to stay without giving them the home town discount. I think in most cases, if the difference wasn't too large the player would realize that the marginal dollars are not the most important thing to him and stay with his team, but the other factor here is Boras, who will does like to see any result at anything less than max $$.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, RedTeamGo! said:

I was listening to MLB radio yesterday on drive home from office and, I forget who it was, but one of their former GMs they have mentioned that he heard Bregman just really doesn't want to live in Detroit. I think you are right, will have to be last team standing, it sounds to me like he simply wants to stay in Houston

I think that’s true of a lot of players, maybe even most players, especially since so many of them come from the south, the west, and Latin America. It’s totally unfair, that completely sucks, but that’s the reality we have to work within.

Short of a complete renaissance for the city of Detroit that makes it a cool place that everyone wants to come to, there are two ways to get players to want to play for the Tigers: pay way more than anyone else, and/or establish a great organizational culture that leads to winning. Harris is working on the latter now, but that’s still going to take time to really take hold, more than just two and a half years. We’re seeing some really good progress on that front, and if he succeeds—and nothing is guaranteed, of course, but if he does—then maybe we won’t to have to pay so much more to get players to want to come here.

And as for that part, Ilitch has shown with the Javy and Eduardo contracts that if he is convinced the team is on the verge of winning, he’ll spend. No reason to believe that he will welsh on that idea now, other than the self-defeating fatalistic thinking that has characterized being a Tigers fan for the last decade or so.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

which sets up a classic negotiation. Houston knows he wants to stay so they want the hometown discount, Bregman wants to stay without giving them the home town discount. I think in most cases, if the difference wasn't too large the player would realize that the marginal dollars are not the most important thing to him and stay with his team, but the other factor here is Boras, who will does like to see any result at anything less than max $$.

I know that Detroit isn't the primo location for most free agents for obvious reasons, but I don't buy that living in Detroit for four months out of the year is currently driving this negotiation. It's all about money and trying to maximize it.

In that sense, Bregman/Boras could also be leveraging the Tigers to up whatever they have on the table as well.

[mtutiger]

Also, for the record, I've really grown weary of Alex Bregman and bringing him the longer this has gone on.... I'd rather they just go get Ha-Seong Kim and ride Vierling/etc. at 3rd to begin the season versus Bregman who, while a talented player, is going to regress as he ages and for whom Comerica isn't exactly a great fit.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I know that Detroit isn't the primo location for most free agents for obvious reasons, but I don't buy that living in Detroit for four months out of the year is currently driving this negotiation. It's all about money and trying to maximize it.

In that sense, Bregman/Boras could also be leveraging the Tigers to up whatever they have on the table as well.

I would guess it's more about a desire to stay in Houston than the particulars of the other place. In that regard all the southern tier states have that marginal advantage over all the northern states - mostly because a lot of players who do sign in the north won't move north because they all use all year training venues in the South -either FLA or ARI or CA. As chas notes, not much teams can do but make it up with cash and attention to detail on making sure the playing experience is 1st rate - coaching, facilities, travel, etc.

Edited Tuesday at 02:43 PM by gehringer_2

[1776]

Broken record here:

Don’t want Bregman wearing the Old English D. A platoon will work for me. 

[oblong]

Unless they are on the younger side and want to live an urban lifestyle, I suspect most players live in gated communities, or other subdivisions with large houses.  So the city itself isn't an issue.  It could be weather.  It could be location to other family. It could be a desire to have one home year round instead of shuffling families across the country for a few months.  I don't know Bregman's situation but I don't discount the desire to see the kids in April, May, Aug, Septmeber when they are in school.  It's one of those "all things being equal" kind of things I suppose.

Is it the primary consideration?  No.  But it can be a signifigant one.

 

[Motor City Sonics]

This argument about rather having an ace pitcher or a superstar position player

 

How about having 3 really good starters and a whole lineup of above average players.     That'll take you just as far.    If Parker Meadows is the second half guy from last year, when you add Greene, Carpenter and hopefully Max Clark - our outfield looks like it's in great shape. 

The infield is a bunch of question marks.   We don't really know what Colt Keith is yet or if he can manage first base.   We don't have any long term player,  other than that,  in the infield.    We really hope that Jace Jung, Kevin McGonigle and Bryce Rainer can all work out, but we typically see that when you have 3 highly-regarded prospects that are a couple years away that you're lucky if one of them turns out to be a good player.    If you look at any Preseason Baseball America top 10 prospects list from the past, if 3 out of the Top 10 prospects work out, you're doing an amazing job. 

Of course, just our luck that just as Rainer and McGonigle are ready to come up in 2027 and be the new Alan & Lou, there won't be a season.   I've seen it online about implementing a salary cap, the question is  Would you be willing to sacrifice a 2027 season to have that happen?     That'll be just our luck,  because when you look at this roster, that's about the time everything should be coming together (hoping that Jobe works out and we'll get a good haul for Skubal, who will be getting paid 50 million a year by the Dodgers or Mets.   

[Motor City Sonics]

6 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Broken record here:

Don’t want Bregman wearing the Old English D. A platoon will work for me. 

It seems like Bregman could be like Rogie Vachon was for the Wings.   Remember all the hype about him coming here?   He was terrible.     I think about the stadium he played most of his games in and then the lineup that surrounded him and he was part of a well-run machine, but does that mean he is suited to be the leader we'd expect him to be here?     That 50 point drop in OBP last year is a big red flag to me.    Those 25/26 HRs in Houston might translate to 18/19 in Detroit.   I don't think that's worth 28 to 30 million a year. 

[KL2]

12 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

It seems like Bregman could be like Rogie Vachon was for the Wings.   Remember all the hype about him coming here?   He was terrible.     I think about the stadium he played most of his games in and then the lineup that surrounded him and he was part of a well-run machine, but does that mean he is suited to be the leader we'd expect him to be here?     That 50 point drop in OBP last year is a big red flag to me.    Those 25/26 HRs in Houston might translate to 18/19 in Detroit.   I don't think that's worth 28 to 30 million a year. 

His splits are nearly identical

[Tiger337]

We were warned about Kinsler's home/road splits and that he wouldn't hit in Comerica.  

[gehringer_2]

44 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

That 50 point drop in OBP last year is a big red flag to me. 

His swing rates both in and out of the zone were pretty much career highs for him last season. Increased swing rate out of zone could be loss of pitch recognition, increase swing rate in the zone just sounds like taking a more aggressive approach. So why? If he's trying to hit more HRs, you'd think he'd be more selective looking for pitches to drive. I would hope that if a team is putting over $100M on the table they have looked at the film and statcast data of every AB for his last couple of years trying to answer those exact questions. This is the other half of what all the analytics capability is supposed to work for.

And then, even if you think you know what he isn't or isn't doing differently, you have to project what that may mean in terms of his future value and what you are willing pay for it. There are some places in the game that I think the value of analytics may be oversold a bit, but not this one. Saving a $100M mistake is worth a lot of analyst salaries!

Edited Tuesday at 03:40 PM by gehringer_2