2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Given what Harris has come out and said, is Willy Adames out of our range on both price and contractual length? Adames is the guy I'd love to get most this offseason as we could play him at either short or third. I feel like he's going to be a team the big spenders, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees will be after and we have no shot at him.

Still PO's about that trade. Adames has put up 21 WAR and still has a good chunk of career left. We got about 3.5 WAR out of Price (who was also a jerk), and about 10 WAR out of Boyd.

And he was my AAT at the time....😥

Edited November 26, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Still PO's about that trade. Adames has put up 21 WAR and still has a good chunk of career left. We got about 3.5 WAR out of Price (who was also a jerk), and about 10 WAR out of Boyd.

And he was my AAT at the time....😥

It was the right move at the time.  Same as Smoltz for Alexander.  Some times you get burned trading prospects, but the majority of the time the team that gets the proven talent wins out.

[RandyMarsh]

I think Henning still takes victory laps over the Adames call. One of his biggest wins the past decade or so. 

[RatkoVarda]

48 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Given what Harris has come out and said, is Willy Adames out of our range on both price and contractual length? Adames is the guy I'd love to get most this offseason as we could play him at either short or third. I feel like he's going to be a team the big spenders, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees will be after and we have no shot at him.

Bregman's approach is what Harris says he wants; so if you are spending big money ($175M+) you should get what you want and not settle for a really good player who Ks too much.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

Bregman's approach is what Harris says he wants; so if you are spending big money ($175M+) you should get what you want and not settle for a really good player who Ks too much.

I also think that someone who strikes out as much as Adames will not age well, so that being two years younger may not be an advantage.  This is old data, but the charts from Hardball Times below show that K% rates increase rapidly from mid 20s onward and there is already little room for his k% to get any higher.  Interestingly, BB% remains stable into a player's mid 30s.  .  

https://tht.fangraphs.com/aging-curves-revisited-damn-strikeouts/

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Still PO's about that trade. Adames has put up 21 WAR and still has a good chunk of career left. We got about 3.5 WAR out of Price (who was also a jerk), and about 10 WAR out of Boyd.

And he was my AAT at the time....😥

Still have Olson (via Norris)

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

Still have Olson (via Norris)

True, but if he got him for Norris we could have gotten him for anyone and a bag of balls. 🙄

[Tigermojo]

Maybe Harris can pull more Holtons out of thin air.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I also think that someone who strikes out as much as Adames will not age well, so that being two years younger may not be an advantage.  This is old data, but the charts from Hardball Times below show that K% rates increase rapidly from mid 20s onward and there is already little room for his k% to get any higher.  Interestingly, BB% remains stable into a player's mid 30s.  .  

https://tht.fangraphs.com/aging-curves-revisited-damn-strikeouts/

I guess there is a certain logic to that. You can still see what you want to hit but getting the bat on what you swing at gets harder and/or maybe you lock up on strikes you would have swung at 4 yrs earlier when you would have seen in for 10 msec more.....

[Tenacious D]

7 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Still have Olson (via Norris)

Technically, it was the second time around with Norris, so Olson’s acquisition is unrelated to the original Price trade with the Jays.

EDIT: I was wrong.  Please pretend like this never happened.  Like you should with most of my posts.

Edited November 27, 2024 by Tenacious D

[Tiger337]

6 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Technically, it was the second time around with Norris, so Olson’s acquisition is unrelated to the original Price trade with the Jays.

EDIT: I was wrong.  Please pretend like this never happened.  Like you should with most of my posts.

Correct Edman on transactions and contracts at your peril.  

[gehringer_2]

17 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I also think that someone who strikes out as much as Adames will not age well, so that being two years younger may not be an advantage.  This is old data, but the charts from Hardball Times below show that K% rates increase rapidly from mid 20s onward and there is already little room for his k% to get any higher.  Interestingly, BB% remains stable into a player's mid 30s.  .  

https://tht.fangraphs.com/aging-curves-revisit

The think the explanation for pitchers throwing more breaking balls early in a career is simply that being able to train with instant pitch F/X data has allowed pitchers to optimize how fast they can learn to throw a more effective breaking ball, and for that matter how to optimize their velo as well. A trial and error process that used to take seasons can be done in a couple of weeks now. And drifts in mechanics can be diagnosed just as fast/accurately.

On the flip side, I think the K zone has also trended wider  - things have sort of standardized that if a mere stitch of the ball is within the zone that's considered a strike, and so when umps miss, they give away even more to the pitcher. I don't think it's an accident that wider breaking sliders (sweepers) are coming back into vogue - that would also argue that the pitchers are getting more effective width to the outside of the zone.  For the same reason I also wonder if the numbers show a bigger jump in K's for guys coming to the majors since the minors started using more ASZ. Since hitting in AAA doess appear to be up, that sort of argues the differential for guys getting called up has be going up too since MLB hitting does not seem to be going up like AAA hitting is, but numbers would be more convincing.

Edited November 27, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Shelton]

There is a fake Lynn Henning on Bluesky that is trying a bit too hard to mimic Lynn’s style and pass himself off as the real thing. Only true Henning scholars (like myself) may be able to notice. 

[IdahoBert]

I used to really enjoy Fake Jim Leland. It was really a great nod and a wink insider sort of account. Only enthusiasts could ever really get it and appreciate it. I’m still curious as to who it could’ve been. 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Shelton said:

There is a fake Lynn Henning on Bluesky that is trying a bit too hard to mimic Lynn’s style and pass himself off as the real thing. Only true Henning scholars (like myself) may be able to notice. 

Someone here once accused you of being Lynn Henning in disguise.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Someone here once accused you of being Lynn Henning in disguise.  

Lynn could never have been silent for as long a stretch as Shelton was......

[Motor City Sonics]

The Tigers are going Black Friday shopping and what will they buy?         Rowdy Tellez !      (Just steeling myself for the upcoming letdown). 

[IdahoBert]

No other posts in six hours? I guess this means our Black Friday is pretty meager. 

[Tenacious D]

51 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

No other posts in six hours? I guess this means our Black Friday is pretty meager. 

With our payroll, I think Small Business Saturday is more likely.

[casimir]

On 11/23/2024 at 11:00 AM, gehringer_2 said:

I still have close to zero confidence that Malloy can stick. July->August->Sept he was worse each month which often as not says a guy is not adjusting as pitchers work his weaknesses. He did flash a little in the playoffs though.

I just prefer that all of the offensive guys play some sort of adequate defense.  The fact that he had slightly more than 0 reps with a mitt in Detroit is quite telling.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

No other posts in six hours? I guess this means our Black Friday is pretty meager. 

Well, maybe they saved 30% on their car insurance....

[casimir]

On 11/25/2024 at 8:56 AM, Edman85 said:

I had to skip Cody's podcast this morning about 15 minutes in after getting tired of the smoke Hasty was blowing up people's asses. 

His little aside about the vb team he is going to call games for summed him up to a tee. He called it the top league in the world

. It's... not. All the US Olympic team is playing in the other American league. The Euro Leagues are still stronger. The league he is calling is roughly AA equivalent.

I listened through it all sort of.  But when he mentioned that top tier league with a team in …. Grand Rapids?   Look, no offense to Grand Rapids.  Nice area.  But, I guess I have serious doubts about a top tier league featuring a team in Grand Rapids, and so my BS meter was enacted.

[casimir]

On 11/26/2024 at 1:33 PM, RandyMarsh said:

I think Henning still takes victory laps over the Adames call. One of his biggest wins the past decade or so. 

Yeah, but Adames would’of stunk in Detroit because the walls are too deep.

[Sports_Freak]

4 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

No other posts in six hours? I guess this means our Black Friday is pretty meager. 

I keep vhecking in to see if we signed Soto yet. I guess not?

[Tenacious D]

12 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

I keep vhecking in to see if we signed Soto yet. I guess not?

Keep hitting refresh.