2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason

[Motor City Sonics]

I have a feeliung that the Tigers are actually the only team that's even close on Bregman and they know it and they are refusing to budge. 

 

I am not sure Alex Bregman is on anyone's roster on Opening Day

[Motor City Sonics]

A 4 year old Japanese boy who can throw a baseball 83 mph has already signed with the Dodgers. 

[1776]

39 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I have a feeliung that the Tigers are actually the only team that's even close on Bregman and they know it and they are refusing to budge. 

That’s my gut feel for several weeks now, exactly. 

[papalawrence]

54 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

A 4 year old Japanese boy who can throw a baseball 83 mph has already signed with the Dodgers. 

Lol, I did see an article that Japan's most prolific home run hitter is planning to come in 2026, and I'm sure LAD will land him

[Longgone]

3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I have a feeliung that the Tigers are actually the only team that's even close on Bregman and they know it and they are refusing to budge. 

 

I am not sure Alex Bregman is on anyone's roster on Opening Day

Why negotiate against yourself?

[papalawrence]

Far too many guys start significant decline in their early to mid 30s.  After the Miggy, Zimmerman, Fielder, Baez, etc contracts, I just don't see Illitch agreeing any more long-term deals post 30. That's why I am convinced they will not be retaining Skubal. The Yankees and Mets will get into a bidding war.

[papalawrence]

Flaherty was on the Foul Territory podcast today. While it's obviously part ploy to get a contract, he also seems very genuine when he says how much he enjoyed being in Detroit and he would welcome the chance to return. He will be 29 the entire 2025 season. The Tigers should pay this guy. They likely will lose Skubal in 2 years, if not sooner. I don't know what they're asking, but 4/100 to 5/120 would seem reasonable. I keep reading he is asking for 5 yrs. Just go get him Harris!

Edited January 23 by papalawrence

[SoCalTiger]

7 minutes ago, papalawrence said:

Flaherty was on the Foul Territory podcast today. While it's obviously part ploy to get a contract, he also seems very genuine when he says how much he enjoyed being in Detroit and he would welcome the chance to return. He will be 29 the entire 2025 season. The Tigers should pay this guy. They likely will lose Skubal in 2 years, if not sooner. I don't know what they're asking, but 4/100 to 5/120 would seem reasonable. I keep reading he is asking for 5 yrs. Just go get him Harris!

Seems high to me at this point. His medicals must be iffy. I would only go 2 years with an opt out. 

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Far too many guys start significant decline in their early to mid 30s.  After the Miggy, Zimmerman, Fielder, Baez, etc contracts, I just don't see Illitch agreeing any more long-term deals post 30. That's why I am convinced they will not be retaining Skubal. The Yankees and Mets will get into a bidding war.

Practically the only players who start significant decline in the early to mid 30s are All-Stars and hall of Famers. Most players' declines start in their late 20s. An even better reason to not trust anyone over 30.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

Seems high to me at this point. His medicals must be iffy. I would only go 2 years with an opt out. 

Not only are his medicals iffy, his track record is arguably iffier. He simply is not good consistently, and anyone can see easily that here.

I feel as though the clamor to sign Flaherty to years and years for a bazillion dollars is less about actually getting Flaherty in the fold than it is a plea for Harris/Ilitch to do something anything already.

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Not only are his medicals iffy, his track record is arguably iffier. He simply is not good consistently, and anyone can see easily that here.

I feel as though the clamor to sign Flaherty to years and years for a bazillion dollars is less about actually getting Flaherty in the fold than it is a plea for Harris/Ilitch to do something anything already.

I don't think anyone here wants them to sign someone just so SOMETHING will happen.  Some may think that Fetter was able to fix him and can get more good years out of him.  

[chasfh]

11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't think anyone here wants them to sign someone just so SOMETHING will happen.

I'm not so sure about that, based on the comments I've seen this offseason.

[alex]

1 hour ago, papalawrence said:

Flaherty was on the Foul Territory podcast today. While it's obviously part ploy to get a contract, he also seems very genuine when he says how much he enjoyed being in Detroit and he would welcome the chance to return. He will be 29 the entire 2025 season. The Tigers should pay this guy. They likely will lose Skubal in 2 years, if not sooner. I don't know what they're asking, but 4/100 to 5/120 would seem reasonable. I keep reading he is asking for 5 yrs. Just go get him Harris!

 

1 hour ago, SoCalTiger said:

Seems high to me at this point. His medicals must be iffy. I would only go 2 years with an opt out. 

I would agree Flaherty on the lower years (2-3 at most) and higher AAV, perhaps with an opt out after year 1 and/or 2. He fits well here. We have a chance to win.

No question health is always a concern with any longer deal - esp with Ps.

SHarris does not really like long term deals with veterans. His history shows this. With said, he is going to have to advocate some deals at some point (even our own players) or it will always be players on the team of under 6 years experience and 'prove it' 1 year veteran deals (rebounds). Does not seem like a recipe to sustainably win in THIS league (yes, Tampa does defy it some). IMHO that cannot work without an exception here and there.

[monkeytargets39]

5 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Lol, I did see an article that Japan's most prolific home run hitter is planning to come in 2026, and I'm sure LAD will land him

And a small contingent of online Tigers fans will both expect him to be interested in coming to Detroit and upset at Harris/Illitch for him signing elsewhere 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, alex said:

 

Harris does not really like long term deals with veterans. His history shows this. With said, he is going to have to advocate some deals at some point (even our own players) or it will always be players on the team of under 6 years experience and 'prove it' 1 year veteran deals (rebounds). Does not seem like a recipe to sustainably win in THIS league (yes, Tampa does defy it some). IMHO that cannot work without an exception here and there.

I fear a Tampa situation in Detroit.  They have had a decent amount of success, but most teams who try it don't do well.  It's also not so much fun as a fan seeing a constantly change their roster with every good player traded away when he starts to get expensive.  

Edited January 24 by Tiger337

[oblong]

I’m glad the Tigers aren’t bidding against themselves.  

[papalawrence]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Not only are his medicals iffy, his track record is arguably iffier. He simply is not good consistently, and anyone can see easily that here.

I feel as though the clamor to sign Flaherty to years and years for a bazillion dollars is less about actually getting Flaherty in the fold than it is a plea for Harris/Ilitch to do something anything already.

If you take away his 5 starts as a 21 yo rookie and his covid season, his only terrible stretch was with Baltimore for 9 starts, after being traded for the first time. Career era 3.63, fip 3.91, whip 1.18, k/9 10.2. I'm not pushing for Harris to just do anything. I am not for giving Bregman a huge contract. Flaherty was a very good fit here. A 4 year deal takes him to sge 32. Any FA signing brings an element of risk. That's one I would take

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml

Edited January 24 by papalawrence

[1984Echoes]

Give him an innings requirement for a vesting option after year 2.

Hurt and not enough innings = no contract after that year... 

Free agent status instead.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, papalawrence said:

If you take away his 5 starts as a 21 yo rookie and his covid season, his only terrible stretch was with Baltimore for 9 starts, after being traded for the first time. Career era 3.63, fip 3.91, whip 1.18, k/9 10.2. I'm not pushing for Harris to just do anything. I am not for giving Bregman a huge contract. Flaherty was a very good fit here. A 4 year deal takes him to sge 32. Any FA signing brings an element of risk. That's one I would take

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml

and pitchers suffer slower age related decline than hitters. They have no requirement for millisecond reaction time. OTOH they are do get injured more so you have to evaluate the trade off on the years. The age related risk between a 27 and 30 hitter is probably greater than between a 27 and 30 yr old pitcher, but the basic injury risk over a any given contract length is going to be higher for all pitchers.

[monkeytargets39]

Even if we signed Flaherty and each year of the deal he is only healthy half of the year but performs as we’ve seen him recently when he is healthy—that could be a big help to a team with a lot of young arms and a lot of untested arms.  
 

if Olson, Cobb and Mize had been healthy and/or consistent last year, I’d say going out and getting a potential high level arm maybe wouldn’t be necessary.  But with those two having injuries and consistency issues, along with upcoming unknowns in Jobe and SGL….I’d rather risk bringing in another arm.
 

if we are going to “waste” money, I’d rather it be on pitching.  If the guy ends up sucking, at least he’s only hurting the team every 5 days instead of daily….

Edited January 24 by monkeytargets39

[gehringer_2]

Just now, monkeytargets39 said:

Even if we signed Flaherty and each year of the deal he is only healthy half of the year but performs as we’ve seen him recently when he is healthy—that could be a big help to a team with a lot of young arms and a lot of untested arms.  
 

if we are going to “waste” money, I’d rather it be on pitching.  If the guy ends up sucking, at least he’s only hurting the team every 5 days instead of daily….

For me the thing is that I'm a lot less confident in all the supposed pitching depth we have. I see a lot of downside risks with a lot of the young guys that people seem to be assuming will just step up and dominate. I hope they will too but I don't see the credentials to persuade me to believe it.

[1776]

HOUSTON — Conversations between the Houston Astros and free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman have resumed within recent days, according to three league sources, reigniting some hope of a reunion between the franchise and one of its cornerstones.
 

-the athletic 

[Edman85]

Not much of a market for the free agent starting pitchers that are pointed to as development successes. Good trade returns for them, though.

[Tiger337]

10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

and pitchers suffer slower age related decline than hitters. They have no requirement for millisecond reaction time. OTOH they are do get injured more so you have to evaluate the trade off on the years. The age related risk between a 27 and 30 hitter is probably greater than between a 27 and 30 yr old pitcher, but the basic injury risk over a any given contract length is going to be higher for all pitchers.

That is what I assumed for a long time, but career path studies have shown that the average pitcher declines faster than the average hitter.  This might be explained by your second point that pitchers are more likely to get injured.  At any rate, I would bet that the confidence interval around career paths for pitchers is a lot wider.  Pitchers may decline faster, but it is possible for them to avoid decline by getting wiser with age.  There is not much a hitter can do once they lose their ability to react.  

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That is what I assumed for a long time, but career path studies have shown that the average pitcher declines faster than the average hitter.

I guess it depends what you look at. I pulled the current rosters a few years ago and at the time the age histogram for pitchers showed more proportionally more pitchers into the middle 30 than the histogram for hitters. That didn't look at performance, just rosters. Maybe teams are just more willing to keep older less effective pitchers around than hitters!

Edited January 24 by gehringer_2