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Last Chance Saloon: 2025 MLB Draft


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Not looking forward to this but, after the trade deadline, it appears we are "once more into the breach". Another top 10 draft pick for the Tigers next year (we are currently in the #8 spot). 

I'll update as we get closer towards the end of the season... and then there's also the lottery...

I'm calling this "Last Chance" because I fully expect the Tigers to be in the Playoffs next year... or DAMN NEAR to making the playoffs. IN is better than "near miss" though, obviously...

I'd like next year to be our last chance Top 10 pick for a "long, long, long time"...

We shall see.

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3 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Do you have evidence that anything I've said is untrue?

Remember: I'm talking about the future, not historicals ("in the books...").

Because if you don't have EVIDENCE, you are incorrect.

Chill out.  It was meant as a joke.  How can I have evidence about the Tigers making the playoffs next season? Regardless, it doesn't mean I am incorrect and typing in all caps certainly helps your post.  And yet somehow your claim that the Tigers are going to be good next year is presented as a fact. Not understanding your logic.

Edited by tiger2022
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37 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Chill out.  It was meant as a joke.  How can I have evidence about the Tigers making the playoffs next season? Regardless, it doesn't mean I am incorrect and typing in all caps certainly helps your post.  And yet somehow your claim that the Tigers are going to be good next year is presented as a fact. Not understanding your logic.

I think neither one of us used /s so it may have gone over both our heads...

No need for any chilling out as I was just picking on a specific word in the definition... and PS: I'm ALWAYS throwing in all-caps in here and there not necessarily as "excitable" but more along the lines of: "here's the key emphasis". (See what I did there... 😉)

I'm presenting nothing as a fact... the correct term would be "conjecture." We'll see if my "conjecture" about the Tigers 2025 season is more accurate than your "conjecture" about the state of my delusions...

😁

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  • 3 weeks later...

Well.... Currently we're tied for the 10th spot but we're winning games and I expect this team to continue winning games (at a +.500 rate) in September so I see us finishing somewhere's around 15th in the league...

How is it that we pick ahead of the White Sox next year...?

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1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

White Sox can't pick higher than 10th because they got a lottery pick this year and are revenue sharing payers.

That says to me though (if the Tigers do indeed finish 15th-ish) that they would still need lottery luck to jump past them into the top 10...

I'm not certain I would call that probable...

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9 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

they are 8th pre-lottery; could jump into top 6, or fall back (or stay put)

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb

But that's right now.

They've been winning... and I expect them to continue winning at a +.500 rate (which I stated above...) which puts them in the 15th range instead of the 8-ish range by season's end.

That's my point.

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  • 2 weeks later...

So...

Since we're into the final stretch here (last month, plus a few games in October...)

We're sitting at 14th. We could conceivably move up several spots in the draft, or we could fall even further, although I don't believe we're falling any farther than the 18th spot... and that's if we continue winning apace...

I'm pretty certain everyone here would prefer to continue winning so...

(right? RIGHT?!)

Since this is the "Last Chance Saloon", hopefully from here on out we're picking no earlier than the low 20's, starting next year...

Let's see if that works for us.

PS: At the lower lottery spots (12-18 range) ... how high exactly do we have a realistic chance of moving up to?

Just wondering...

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22 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

Brutal. 

 

By the way, I ran 5 simulations. We got 14 twice, 15 twice and 1st once. Hrmmmmmm 🤔

At 13 right now we don't have a "0" chance at a top 6 pick... it's actually roughly 8% per TJ's chart...

Not that I'm counting on that or anything...

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  • 3 weeks later...

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