World Politics Thread

[Tigeraholic1]

1 minute ago, romad1 said:

You can't advocate for theocrats and then claim you defend the constitution. 

This is true but I don’t want to be that person. I overreacted to the Tweet I posted. I take full blame for that.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

A riot in Leeds is not Islamists taking over London - misses by about 270K. A riot in Leeds is to London what a riot in Chicago is to DC.

And to be clear TH, the "he didn't study Geography" crack was directed at the Twitter poster (Wooten?) who made that the jump from one place to the other - not you.

[romad1]

34 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

This is true but I don’t want to be that person. I overreacted to the Tweet I posted. I take full blame for that.

Aye...understood.  I'm just settling into a spoonful of cheertussin to go with my paxlovid.  I might take the next couple plays off. 

[chasfh]

Anyone have any serious idea what caused it?

Edited July 19, 2024 by chasfh

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

A riot in Leeds is not Islamists taking over London - misses by about 270K. A riot in Leeds is to London what a riot in Chicago is to DC.

Come to Chicago. Riot-free since 2020.

[ewsieg]

On 7/18/2024 at 8:39 PM, gehringer_2 said:

the Sky news reporting (https://news.sky.com/story/police-car-flipped-on-to-its-side-as-unrest-breaks-out-in-leeds-13180593) indicates this started as some locals were mad about social services actions. Doesn't sound exactly like threat to the  nation stuff, but who knows?

"The owner of a restaurant in Harehills said the disorder was linked to local children being taken into care, adding that some people responded by setting fires and "throwing stones".

I've been somewhat off the grid the last few days, but did see some stuff about riots in England and just learned with this post that it wasn't what I assumed it was about, a soccer game.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

What parallels, if any, exist between the pleasantly surprising French election results and ours? Could the polling be wrong here too and underestimating Democrat support, while overestimating Republican support? Wishful thinking on my part?

[gehringer_2]

28 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

What parallels, if any, exist between the pleasantly surprising French election results and ours? Could the polling be wrong here too and underestimating Democrat support, while overestimating Republican support? Wishful thinking on my part?

Time will tell about the parallels. One possible difference is that what happened in France was just a holding action. If I read the numbers correctly Le Pen is still increasing her vote totals. If Trump looses this time around, I think most people believe the air goes out of that particular political balloon in the US. Of course if it doesn't, especially if a Trump sion can gain the allegiance of the movement and carry it on as Marine has done after her father, then you'd have a parallel in spades.

Edited July 23, 2024 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

... especially if a Trump scion can gain the allegiance of the movement and carry it on as Marine has done ...

Zero chance of this happening.

But...

There probably is a MAGA evolution to discuss.

The greater picture is the Republican Party. But we already know MAGA has taken over and traditional/ moderate/  establishment/ global trading and defense Republicans are now homeless. Some of them Never-Trumpers, some of them shifted to Independents, some of them still fighting to get their party back (lost cause)... But what exactly happens to MAGA when Trump loses?

My first thought would be that there will be some fraying at the edges. Meaning... the extremists will become even more extreme. That tends to happen when a movement falls apart. Could the movement not fray...? That would take a new charismatic leader... And I don't think Trump's sons (ANY of them) fit the bill. More like a couple of idiots and one other barely out of diapers.

Unless there's a Trump 2.0 to keep them together... the extreme fringes of this movement are too grotesque to hold any popular standing with anyone. And if they become even more extreme (acts of violence) they will become both more unpalatable as well as more often behind bars.

Also... with even the mainstream ideas discredited by an Electoral spanking (whites-only, white men control all women's health care, including tracking their pregnancies, the rise of theocratic-fascism and populist (Trump) fascism, overthrow of the Constitution of the United States, forcing out professionals and replacing them with boot-licking sycophants... etc.)... What then?

Their politics are not popular. There will either be infighting over what their platform should actually be (since they don't have one except for repression against all those that they hate...); or a fracturing into many mini-factions. The Evangelists. The White Trash Bigots. The Fascists.

What happens after Trump loses?

Could be interesting to watch (in a horror movie sort of way...)

Could be extremely dangerous.

And scary.

Buckle up.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

There probably is a MAGA evolution to discuss.

the other interesting question (I think) is whether  after another loss, anyone in the rad right wing would try to displace Trump from it's leadership, or whether Trump holds the movement as his own even after another loss. Maybe he doesn't go away - he just keeps agitating from his own media perch.  If it's the later, then you can see a scenario where as Trump gets older and less capable a 'trusted lieutenant' could emerge who then inherits the mantle. The thing is, Trump only really trusts family and as you note, none of them seem remotely up to the task, unless maybe Jared and Ivanka pivot back into involvement in the movement, which right know doesn't look likely.

Of course, we can''t count our chickens before they hatch, he hasn't lost yet.

[Tigeraholic1]

Something we can all agree is great to see. 
 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Something we can all agree is great to see. 
 

 

Nice unintended consequence, builds more internal pressure on the Mullah's in Iran.

[chasfh]

Is there a corresponding news story about this?

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is there a corresponding news story about this?

 good catch - this looks a pick up off an old story that isn't quite what is claimed.....

https://dfrac.org/en/2024/02/28/fact-check-did-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-give-autonomy-to-women-in-regard-to-fashion/

[Hongbit]

I hope the foreign journalist that broke the story got it right. Because, well, you know… 

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

 good catch - this looks a pick up off an old story that isn't quite what is claimed.....

https://dfrac.org/en/2024/02/28/fact-check-did-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-give-autonomy-to-women-in-regard-to-fashion/

It isn’t often is, is it?

[chasfh]

On the other hand, what is a real story is Trump’s dealings with Saudi Arabia. 

 

[mtutiger]

 

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

 

yeah - really want see if Maduro will go and what the US will do if he doesn't given a clear election result. a nice little kidnapping by special forces would make for a good movie.🥷

Edited July 29, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Tigeraholic1]

First test of the Harris era if he won’t concede that is.

Edited July 29, 2024 by Tigeraholic1

[gehringer_2]

well, that didn't take long:

Quote

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s electoral council declared the authoritarian socialist the winner of Venezuela’s election Sunday despite independent exit polling that suggested opposition candidate Edmundo González had captured twice as many votes.

The opposition, which sent thousands of ordinary citizens to monitor voting centers across the country Sunday, was expected to challenge the result.

The electoral council said Maduro won with 51 percent of the vote to González’s 44 percent.

-https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/28/venezuela-election-maduro-gonzalez/nyt

[romad1]

26 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

well, that didn't take long:

-https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/28/venezuela-election-maduro-gonzalez/nyt

Man...the Cubans, the Iranians of all people, the Chinese and the Russians all have a stake in keeping this regime going.  I don't like where this is going.

[Tigeraholic1]

I wonder what administration thought it was a good idea to lift sanctions on Venezuela? 

[pfife]

The one you voted for?

[pfife]

It's weird that now you support the guy who congratulates putin on his election victories