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Week Three: Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1)


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The week to week league argument is…weak.  It’s about consistency that add up to wins. The lions are fortunate to be 2-1 with this offense, which no one seems concerned about.   Any given Sunday, sure.  But those sundays add up.  The lions have gotten worse offensively week over week.  Haven’t scored more than 20 pts in regulation. Ended today with 7 scoreless possessions. Urgency needs to be had, the bills are coming due. 

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52 minutes ago, TP_Fan said:

The week to week league argument is…weak.  It’s about consistency that add up to wins. The lions are fortunate to be 2-1 with this offense, which no one seems concerned about.   Any given Sunday, sure.  But those sundays add up.  The lions have gotten worse offensively week over week.  Haven’t scored more than 20 pts in regulation. Ended today with 7 scoreless possessions. Urgency needs to be had, the bills are coming due. 

if the lions won the super bowl you'd find a way to say they sucked.

 

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The way the defense and special teams are playing the offense needs to just be not terrible.  Fortunately, they are not terrible and quite effective running the ball.  Passing game will be fine.  Points will come.  Red zone was much better.  More concerned that Minn seems to be pretty good and GB getting it done with Willis.

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1 hour ago, Gozer said:

The way the defense and special teams are playing the offense needs to just be not terrible.  Fortunately, they are not terrible and quite effective running the ball.  Passing game will be fine.  Points will come.  Red zone was much better.  More concerned that Minn seems to be pretty good and GB getting it done with Willis.

Yeah, the Lions can't count on other teams taking care of the Vikings or Packers, we'll have to do it ourselves...again. 😄

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9 hours ago, TP_Fan said:

The week to week league argument is…weak.  It’s about consistency that add up to wins. The lions are fortunate to be 2-1 with this offense, which no one seems concerned about.   Any given Sunday, sure.  But those sundays add up.  The lions have gotten worse offensively week over week.  Haven’t scored more than 20 pts in regulation. Ended today with 7 scoreless possessions. Urgency needs to be had, the bills are coming due. 

Lots of teams are figuring things out early in the season, this isn't exclusive to the Lions. The Niners and Ravens are 1-2, the Cowboys are a mess (although this isn't shocking), the Bengals are 0-2. The Steelers, Seahawks and Vikings are 3-0, who had that on their bingo card? The Lions are 2-1 while figuring their **** out (and really handed that game to the Bucs), we should all take that.

I know it's engrained in the psyche of some Lions fans (the SOL mentality) to default to negative at the slight hint of adversity but I'm not overly concerned about the offense, they'll get going eventually. My biggest concern continues to be for the millionth time the lack of a #3 receiver. Holmes depending on Raymond and some guy who hasn't played football in 3 years in Patrick to fill the Josh Reynolds role when he had enough cap space to fill the void baffled me this offseason and continues to baffle me, they're not getting anything from these guys like literally almost zero in 3 games. The Lions are lacking that Jared Goff safety outlet and it's bogging the offense down on 3rd downs too often, this is something that needs to be addressed.

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2 hours ago, Jason_R said:

It might be a fracture but it might only be a sprain. 🤞

I doubt LaPorta has a broken ankle. They never would have allowed him back in the game 2 or 3 times before finally pulling him. With that being said, sprains can take a while to heal. Especially high ankle sprains. Several weeks. And hopefully Branch is OK, they said he left with a neck issue...and McNeil was also injured. Looks like that early bye week comes at a good time...

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9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Are there teams besides the Lions whose fanbase has to be put on suicide watch after a road win? Just asking for some friends.......

It’s not the fanbase.  It’s just a few insufferables that love to complain. 

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We can complain about the offense if we want, it's a free country message board, but yesterday's offense was not the one that caused me anxiety like week one, or to yank hair out like week two.

I think the Lions offense was playing chess yesterday. Whether you win 34-13 or 20-13, it's all one win in the standings. After the trick play put them up two scores heading into the half, they had scored a touchdown on three of their four first half drives. I think there was a conscious decision to play a little more conservatively and to trust the defense. Not to show too much of the playbook, to run the ball behind your tackles, to control TOP, and to not turn the ball over. They mostly succeeded, and ultimately they did succeed because they won the game. By the time it became a one-possession game again, there was less than 4:00 to go. The strategy changes again at that point, to just not giving the Cardinals the ball back.

It's not like against the Rams where they were just constantly going three and out, they only went three and out once in the second half. Or the Bucs where they were shooting themselves in the foot in the red zone, they were 2/2 in the red zone.

Now, ideally, that strategy still gets you points. Getting shut out in a half is never a good thing. And ideally, you've learned from last year that against better teams in bigger games, no lead is safe. But yesterday I really think if the defense was struggling to get stops, the attitude would have changed and they would have successfully moved the ball a little more aggressively.

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Some analytics instead of work this morning.

Since 2023 week one, including playoffs, the Lions have scored 152 points in the 1st quarter (25%), 190 points in the 2nd quarter (31%), 101 points in the 3rd quarter (17%), and 163 points in the 4th quarter (27%). That would seem to spell a 3rd quarter problem.

But, they have led at the half in 17 of the 23 games in that stretch (74%). In 8 of those games (35%), they have led by more than 8 points at the half. They have a good tendency to start strong out of the gate. And they don't tend to lose that lead either. In those 17 games, they are 14-3. In the 8 games with two-possession leads (including yesterday), they are 7-1. The only loss they have suffered after taking an 9+ point lead into the half was in the NFC Championship Game. Oof.

That is to say though, it's not like they are often playing from behind, desperately needing third quarter points, and are just making crazy comebacks in the 4th quarter to make up for it. I think it's their strategy (which is working more often than not) to slow the game down and control the pace in the second half after getting out to a 1st half lead, and a natural consequence of that is that you're going to score less.

Furthermore, when they are not leading at the half, the stats change. In those 6 games, they have scored 26 points in the 1st quarter (22%), 10 points in the 2nd quarter (9%), 35 points in the 3rd quarter (30%), and 45 points in the 4th quarter (39%). Those are different games, and call for different strategy at the half.

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

Are there teams besides the Lions whose fanbase has to be put on suicide watch after a road win? Just asking for some friends.......

I'm beginning to conclude that this has to be more superstition than belief. How can you continue to believe in the face of such strong opposing evidence. It's the lucky underwear mindset. Keep complaining, keep winning. 

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1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Some analytics instead of work this morning.

Since 2023 week one, including playoffs, the Lions have scored 152 points in the 1st quarter (25%), 190 points in the 2nd quarter (31%), 101 points in the 3rd quarter (17%), and 163 points in the 4th quarter (27%). That would seem to spell a 3rd quarter problem.

But, they have led at the half in 17 of the 23 games in that stretch (74%). In 8 of those games (35%), they have led by more than 8 points at the half. They have a good tendency to start strong out of the gate. And they don't tend to lose that lead either. In those 17 games, they are 14-3. In the 8 games with two-possession leads (including yesterday), they are 7-1. The only loss they have suffered after taking an 9+ point lead into the half was in the NFC Championship Game. Oof.

That is to say though, it's not like they are often playing from behind, desperately needing third quarter points, and are just making crazy comebacks in the 4th quarter to make up for it. I think it's their strategy (which is working more often than not) to slow the game down and control the pace in the second half after getting out to a 1st half lead, and a natural consequence of that is that you're going to score less.

Furthermore, when they are not leading at the half, the stats change. In those 6 games, they have scored 26 points in the 1st quarter (22%), 10 points in the 2nd quarter (9%), 35 points in the 3rd quarter (30%), and 45 points in the 4th quarter (39%). Those are different games, and call for different strategy at the half.

Good work, thanks. 

Yesterday was perfect example. The Lions scored a TD on the opening drive and then except for 5 minutes led the rest of the way. They had a 2-score lead throughout the entire 2nd half until under 4 minutes to go, at which point they promptly got two 1st downs to ice it. It was about as drama-free of a road game as can be. 

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Yes, I’d like to see the team putting up 30 points a week. But it’s also nice to see them rolling up 180 yards rushing and dominating time of possession. It was a close game on the scoreboard, but as of the middle of the second quarter it never really felt close. 

They came out of halftime looking sloppy on offense. Glasgow had a false start which ruined the first drive. Then they tried the double reverse which got Jaymo tackled for a big loss. The very next play was the interception on 2nd and 17. Something tells me MCDC decided that was the time to grind it out and use Fox to challenge Arizona to drive the length of the field. 

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