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9/17/24 7:40PM Tigers @ Royals


Tigeraholic1

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Ty Maddens of your system, t

It interesting that they have Madden starting or at least working the long shift of a BP game. I always had the impression  that even if he was starting in the minors he was being slotted to be a reliever. I suppose next ST should resolve that.

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I know we all want him to come up yesterday and start throwing perfect games already, but Jackson Jobe is not coming to Detroit this year. He is the system's top pitching prospect, so we are going to baby his development. The cost of his failing at the big league level would be too high, so we are not going to throw him immediately to the wolves and see if he can fight his way out. That's not what you do to #1 pitching prospects. That's what you do to the Keider Monteros and Ty Maddens of your system, the guys for whom it would be a total bonus if they can come and and shove in the bigs, and if they fail, it's far less of a problem.

Looking for parallels, Verlander spent little time in the minors but he was a college guy who was done developing physically. Porcello maybe a more relevant comparison - he was a prep pitcher who was in the Majors at 20 after only one  A ball season. I don't know if there is an argument to made Porcello would have been any better than he was for spending another year in the minors.

But I don't think pitchers are like hitters in terms of coming up and being 'overmatched'. Once a guy has velo and spin he is basically a finished product in terms of being physically ready. At that point it's all about command/strike throwing. If I'm the Tigers I'm looking at his long bone images to see if his body is ready and his walk rate to see if his command is ready. I don't know about the former but the  later is still lacking.

Edited by gehringer_2
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During the meat of the season I'm all in on "just win the series", it adds up over time.  But now we have 10 games left to make up ground.  Whether it's 2 or 3 games is out of the Tigers hands as MN has to play 11 more.  So you need every win. It's like trying to lose weight to be healthy but now trying to lose weight to make weight for a wrestling match.

When the media says they're only 1.5 games out, that's technically true, but in a postseason sense they are 2.5 out.  That's the important number.  It dosn't matter if they tie or finish a few games back.  They don't make the playoffs.

 

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53 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Looking for parallels, Verlander spent little time in the minors but he was a college guy who was done developing physically. Porcello maybe a more relevant comparison - he was a prep pitcher who was in the Majors at 20 after only one  A ball season. I don't know if there is an argument to made Porcello would have been any better than he was for spending another year in the minors.

But I don't think pitchers are like hitters in terms of coming up and being 'overmatched'. Once a guy has velo and spin he is basically a finished product in terms of being physically ready. At that point it's all about command/strike throwing. If I'm the Tigers I'm looking at his long bone images to see if his body is ready and his walk rate to see if his command is ready. I don't know about the former but the  the later is still lacking.

Counterpoint: Mize and Manning. They were basically ruined by Avila. You will disagree. 

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2 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Counterpoint: Mize and Manning. They were basically ruined by Avila. You will disagree. 

By being rushed?  I don’t believe either were. Neither developed a knockout pitch, though I still think Mize is capable. I ain’t quitting’ him.  Manning reminds me of a Mike Pelfrey-type.

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16 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

By being rushed?  I don’t believe either were. Neither developed a knockout pitch, though I still think Mize is capable. I ain’t quitting’ him.  Manning reminds me of a Mike Pelfrey-type.

Mike Pelfrey-type? For a #9 overall pick? And that’s good? That’s not either botching the pick or ruining the pitcher? I’m not following that.

As for Mize, we should have gotten a hell of a lot more out of him by now, age 28, than a 2.4 lifetime WAR. Unless you think that’s expecting too much?

Not waiting for you to answer and with due respect, I believe it’s because they were rushed to the bigs before they were ready in the hopes that they could make Avila look good. Same reason they rushed Tork up. Avila ****ed up all three of those picks. Harris will not do that with Jobe, I can promise you that. 

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52 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Counterpoint: Mize and Manning. They were basically ruined by Avila. You will disagree. 

well, let's take them in turn.  Manning? He certainly wasn't rushed - he was in the system 5 yrs before his first call up. The kid has had a ton of injuries, did management have him on a bad conditioning program? Certainly possible. At this point he doesn't have much of a fastball. I think there was an assumption with Manning that with his build he would develop as a power pitcher. Didn't really happen. Coaching? The series of injuries? IDK. Maybe it was never there in the 1st place? At any rate, to me it's purely achieving consistent velo that caps Manning's potential at this point. What are your thoughts?

Mize? I know people will claim I am ret-conning but I was never enthused about Mize's MLB potential going back to his draft. I don't care what the media consensus was. He was a trick pitch collegiate who came to the majors without a major league swing and miss fastball, depending on a off-speed pitch that didn't fool ML hitters. Then he blew his UCL and has taken way longer than normal for recovery, then lost more starts to a bad hammy. As far as I can tell, Fetter/et al have helped him improve his 4 seamer and build his velo to where he has a shot at becoming a real power pitcher. Maybe the old staff should have done that to begin with before bringing him up? In any case at this point he does not have ML caliber command. Does he just need more innings to get there because of the surgery, or is he just not what everyone hoped? I absolutely don't know at this point. I think all you can do is let him pitch enough to find out and hope he can stay healthy enough to pitch that much. What do you see as the prior management's contribution to his problems?

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I believe it’s because they were rushed to the bigs before they were ready in the hopes that they could make Avila look good.

I think you have a fair argument with Mize - because as I posted - I don't think his stuff was ready, he certainly was not all that dominant in what time he did spend in the minors. OTOH, TBF, you normally don't expect a college 1/1 to spend much time in the minors either - though the COVD yr sort of messes with all assumptions.

Manning was strong 2019 at AA, then missed 20 - well spent the year in the development camp I believe.. I would fault them less for assuming he was as ready as he would ever be in 21. And to correct myself, I guess 21 was his 4th year, not fifth.

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 hour ago, oblong said:

During the meat of the season I'm all in on "just win the series", it adds up over time.  But now we have 10 games left to make up ground.  Whether it's 2 or 3 games is out of the Tigers hands as MN has to play 11 more.  So you need every win. It's like trying to lose weight to be healthy but now trying to lose weight to make weight for a wrestling match.

When the media says they're only 1.5 games out, that's technically true, but in a postseason sense they are 2.5 out.  That's the important number.  It dosn't matter if they tie or finish a few games back.  They don't make the playoffs.

 

Would you be unhappy with the series if they lost today?  I wouldn’t.    I’m ok with 2 out of 3 this weekend too.   This is the tough part they need to get through against playoff teams to give themselves a chance.

Next week is a different story. They need to step up and win at least 5 of 6 against lesser teams with nothing to play for.   Those are the must wins.  

Edited by Hongbit
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7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Would you be unhappy with the series if they lost today?  I wouldn’t.    I’m ok with 2 out of 3 this weekend too.   This is the tough part they need to get through against playoff teams to give themselves a chance.

Next week is a different story. They need to step up and win at least 5 of 6 against lesser teams with nothing to play for.   Those are the must wins.  

I wouldn't be unhappy because I've already assessed the rest of the season to be gravy.  But I think losing hurts their chances quite a bit given they play Baltimore on the road this weekend. Of course, a loss today followed by taking 2 or 3 this weekend negates that somewhat.  I want them to go into the final homestand just a game back.  If it's 2 or more, I don't like their chances. At that point you may need sweeps by Detroit and MN's opponent.  Come Friday, the teams are evened up on games remaining with a trio of 3 game series.  You win 2/3 and they lose 2/3, that's a game gained.  If they are 2 back in the standings come Friday.... that's kind of a big ask.  

I want next weekends series with Chicago to be one where the Tigers have their fate in their hands

 

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10 games to go and I think 8 wins gets them in the playoffs. It’s possible even 7.  

I’m not even sure that Minnesota will be the team we are chasing.  I can see KC folding up and going 3-6 or worse in their last 9 against SF, Wash, and Atl.  

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2 minutes ago, Hongbit said:


10 games to go and I think 8 wins gets them in the playoffs. It’s possible even 7.  

I’m not even sure that Minnesota will be the team we are chasing.  I can see KC folding up and going 3-6 or worse in their last 9 against SF, Wash, and Atl.  

9-1 would match the 88-74 record of the 2012 pennant-winning Tigers. 

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3 minutes ago, Hongbit said:


10 games to go and I think 8 wins gets them in the playoffs. It’s possible even 7.  

I’m not even sure that Minnesota will be the team we are chasing.  I can see KC folding up and going 3-6 or worse in their last 9 against SF, Wash, and Atl.  

It was funny hearing Dirks and Benetti talk about the idea that KC could end up being the team they are chasing. A sweep would certainly pull that into higher plausibility.

 

Also, I really like Dirks and Benetti together, although Dirks does fall into the "Tony Romo-style" of pitch/play guessing a little too much for me sometimes.

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

Counterpoint: Mize and Manning. They were basically ruined by Avila. You will disagree. 

Possibly Manning, but Mize had average stuff at best.  Possibly the worst skill set of a #1 overall pick in my lifetime. 

Average fastball at best who had decent off speed stuff that got college guys out but gets destroyed in mlb.

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1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

well, let's take them in turn.  Mannin

They completely botched Manning is my point. Either he was a bad pick at #9, or a botched developmental project. To say that he's a Mike Pelfrey-type is a complete gut punch to anyone who thought he should have been front-of-the-rotation material as a #9 overall. He was presumably supposed to be better than Cole Ragans.

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2 minutes ago, tiger2022 said:

Possibly Manning, but Mize had average stuff at best.  Possibly the worst skill set of a #1 overall pick in my lifetime. 

Average fastball at best who had decent off speed stuff that got college guys out but gets destroyed in mlb.

He was supposed to be the "splittie" king, but it was the "splittie" what done him in.

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

I want next weekends series with Chicago to be one where the Tigers have their fate in their hands

 

If this turns out to be the case, I will come into town and pay the money to see as many as all three of those games.

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2 hours ago, chasfh said:

They completely botched Manning is my point. Either he was a bad pick at #9, or a botched developmental project. To say that he's a Mike Pelfrey-type is a complete gut punch to anyone who thought he should have been front-of-the-rotation material as a #9 overall. He was presumably supposed to be better than Cole Ragans.

I don't know where the Pelfrey comp came from  - not me!

Bottom line is if Fetter can't succeed in teaching him to throw hard, then I guess the conclusion has to be they botched the pick. At this point I have no idea what made them project him as a power pitcher as a prep, but my best recollection is that is what they thought - or at least that was the PR, at the time. I wouldn't say it's a terrible assumption to have looked at Manning at 18 and throwing whatever he was at the time - say mid/lower 90's - that he could grow into an upper 90's guy, but it's fair enough to say you have to have more than that kind of projection to justify a top ten pick.

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5 hours ago, chasfh said:

Mike Pelfrey-type? For a #9 overall pick? And that’s good? That’s not either botching the pick or ruining the pitcher? I’m not following that.

As for Mize, we should have gotten a hell of a lot more out of him by now, age 28, than a 2.4 lifetime WAR. Unless you think that’s expecting too much?

Not waiting for you to answer and with due respect, I believe it’s because they were rushed to the bigs before they were ready in the hopes that they could make Avila look good. Same reason they rushed Tork up. Avila ****ed up all three of those picks. Harris will not do that with Jobe, I can promise you that. 

I was using the Pelfrey comp based on where I think he currently is.  Not as a compliment.  I’ve written Manning off (as the Tigers seem to have, as well).

I disagree with your assessment of Mize—I didn’t think he was rushed, nor do I think it’s time to give up on him.  He has lost significant development time to injuries.  If he’s pitching like this again next season, I’ll gladly revisit my outlook.

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