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Week Four: Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)


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10 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

That was a pretty silly FB game.

Best line of the night by Aikman: "Put Arnold in mittens in practice." 

Lol, I missed Aikman saying that but it's true. I think Terrion will be a good player but he takes "grabby" to another level, calm down young man.

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10 hours ago, TP_Fan said:

And that’s the bigger concern.  Dan Campbell doesnt hold his staff accountable.  Overall these are very likable coaches. All of them. But it does have a little good old boys feel to it.  Geno has done the same thing for 3 years, shredded mad and passed the heck out of the ball, and never has Glenn adjusted and Dan hasn’t made him. Why not?  The strategy needs to come from the head coach.  I can’t believe they let a bottom half QB shred them again. 

I know I shouldn't take the bait but here I go...

They were 13-4 last season just about went to the Superbowl two years after being the worst franchise in football and are 3-1 this season. Yes Johnson and Glenn have flaws like just about every coach does but. my man, you need to take it down a couple of notches. Sheesh

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5 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Lol, I missed Aikman saying that but it's true. I think Terrion will be a good player but he takes "grabby" to another level, calm down young man.

He got flagged almost immediately in the first game for DPI on a marginal call. Now he has the reputation of being “handsy” and all close calls go against him. DC will need to work on the refs and AG/DB coach need to work on his technique. But these DPI calls are all coming with TA in the hip pocket of the receiver. He always seems to be where he is supposed to be. 

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The Lions spent a lot of resources on the secondary this offseason with two high draft picks to get Arnold and Rakestraw, a big trade to bring in Davis, and a free agency to bring in Robertson. Last night, while they came up with big plays when they needed to like the INT at the end, I thought it was a rough night overall for the secondary. Has the secondary dramatically improved to you through the first four games?

 

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37 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

That’s on Goff. He should have led more time-consuming drives instead of scoring TDs so quickly. 

I did think it might have been a good idea to run more late in the game to eat up clock and try to give the defense a breather, but at the same time I'm not going to complain too much with scoring fast when you're already leading.*

*Obviously in select situations, like 4 minutes to go, down by 5 pts, you're prefer to use up as much time as possible before scoring a TD, but this wasn't one of those situations.

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12 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

The Lions spent a lot of resources on the secondary this offseason with two high draft picks to get Arnold and Rakestraw, a big trade to bring in Davis, and a free agency to bring in Robertson. Last night, while they came up with big plays when they needed to like the INT at the end, I thought it was a rough night overall for the secondary. Has the secondary dramatically improved to you through the first four games?

 

I would say yes, it has improved. Dramatically?? Eh, probably not dramatically, but I do believe it's better. Having said that, last night's game did NOT look better.

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The Lions pass defense has only given up four passing TDs in four games against some quality QBs. They also have four interceptions, one in each game, picking off every QB they faced. Penalties seem to be the biggest issue. Overall, the defense has held three of the four teams to 20 or fewer points. They had held Seattle to only seven points in the first half. This pass defense and overall defense is better. 

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I think its OK to call out your coaches regardless of if they are winning or not.  Its part of being a fan.  Although some of the comments on here are hilarious.  Its like they watch another game and find something that is better than what the Lions are doing (and its never apples to apples comparison) in certain situations and come unglued.  I just think Lions fans have been abused so much, they have this negative mechanism to make them make truly ridiculous statements.  Arnold is not better than Okudah, the Lions coaches are terrible, trade Goff.....etc.  Its OK to make observations and then make a comment without going scorch the earth.  For instance......I have noticed that this year, tackling has not been good.  Not sure if its a coaching thing, being too aggressive, bad angles, or a combination of things.  Its noticeable because that to me has been one of the biggest improvements with this regime.  I am concerned although its early in a long season.  I would be very arrogant if I said its for sure coaching.  A team does not make a straight line from one of the worst teams in football to the Superbowl.  There are usually (notice I said usually because there are always exceptions) bumps along the road.  Last year had plenty of bumps and we were one or two plays from making the superbowl.  And if we don't make it that far this year, its not because horrible coaching or terrible draft picks (specifically Arnold).  It usually can equate to multiple things.  Relax, its a long season.  I think 3-1 at this point is about what I figured we would be.  The next 5 games are going to be tough, so don't be surprised if we're 6-3 or 5-4.  Doesn't mean we won't win the division or make the playoffs.  Minnesota looks like the team to beat in the division (at this point in the season) and maybe the NFC although I am curious how they look halfway through the season.  I know its the NFL, but lets see when teams start to really take them serious (similar to our bad stretch last year).

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2021 Seattle scored 51

2022 Seattle scored 48

2023 Seattle scored 37

Last night Seattle scored 29

Yes, Detroit’s secondary is improving. Seattle is just a good team. They have one of the best WR trios in the NFL. They have some very physical runners. Geno Smith gets the ball out fast and is hard to bring down. This is the NFL. Everyone has its share of good players and every team is going to make its share of good plays. 

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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

The Lions spent a lot of resources on the secondary this offseason with two high draft picks to get Arnold and Rakestraw, a big trade to bring in Davis, and a free agency to bring in Robertson. Last night, while they came up with big plays when they needed to like the INT at the end, I thought it was a rough night overall for the secondary. Has the secondary dramatically improved to you through the first four games?

 

They're young outside of Davis. I think most people reasonably thought that it would take time to gel.

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2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

But the coach doesn't have an average kicker, he has *his* kicker, and he doesn't have average offensive efficiency, he has what he is getting right now. Those are what have to factor in his decision. League average values should only be a baseline for a coach to judge "this situation is going to be x amount better or worse than the average odds right now." 

That's my problem with analytics. Some geek with a calculator tells a coach what he *should* do instead of what the normal play should be. Going from the gut always seemed like the best decision.

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18 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

That's my problem with analytics. Some geek with a calculator tells a coach what he *should* do instead of what the normal play should be. Going from the gut always seemed like the best decision.

To me, the issue is not the analytics, it failing to use intelligence when applying them. Knowing baseline probabilities of various outcomes  to increasingly fine grain and to be able to drill into data to find specific scenarios is a necessity to make intelligent decisions, but it's never enough by itself to get past average outcomes - every event in the real world is a singularity that is going to have its own unique features. When you have the insight to analyze those features and add that to what baseline probabilities tell you, then you get to winning outcomes.

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2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

To me, the issue is not the analytics, it failing to use intelligence when applying them. Knowing baseline probabilities of various outcomes  to increasingly fine grain and to be able to drill into data to find specific scenarios is a necessity to make intelligent decisions, but it's never enough by itself - every event in the real world is a singularity that is going to have its own unique features. When you have the insight to analyze those features and add that to what baseline probabilities tell you, then you make winning decisions.

But my point is just because the stats say you shouldn't do something doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. Like last night, the Lions are pretty good against the run. In the 1st half, Seattle has less than 20 rushing yards. But in the 2nd half, they had success running the ball. Sometimes, teams need to play their game and not worry about what may happen, make the opponent beat you by stopping your strength.

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Just now, Sports_Freak said:

But my point is just because the stats say you shouldn't do something doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. Like last night, the Lions are pretty good against the run. In the 1st half, Seattle has less than 20 rushing yards. But in the 2nd half, they had success running the ball. Sometimes, teams need to play their game and not worry about what may happen, make the opponent beat you by stopping your strength.

True - the present tense is probably even more important in Football than Baseball, which my usual frame for thinking about analytics. Once a football game starts you are watching 20-30 individual one-on-one contests going on plus how your QB is doing and how those match-ups are playing out in real time, plus what the opposing coach does or what you believe he will do, will supersede most of what history can tell you. 

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Holmes has made many great moves running the Lions but IMO, signing Montgomery was near the top of his best moves. The guy is VERY under-rated. He has a beast mode that we haven't seen in a very long time. Power running to go along with elusivness and speed 

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I think missing Branch, Barnes, and Iffy hurt yesterday. All three of them are often expected to cover the middle of the field, and it felt like that short crossing pattern was open over, and over, and over again. I'm not educated enough to say who was dropping the ball as a result, maybe Brandon Joseph (who played for Branch) or Campbell/Anzalone/Rodrigo (covering for Barnes).

I think having Branch back against Dallas and allowing him to fly around the field going to where the routes are designed to go will see some of those weaknesses improve.

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I also think we expect a lot out of our secondary. More than pretty much anyone in the NFL. Our run defense is so good that teams generally aren't even trying to establish it.

The Rams attempted 49 passes, the Cardinals 34, and the Seahawks 56. The Bucs were the only exception (19), and that's turning into an exception game in more than one way. Our 39.5 average opponent passes per game is second only to Minnesota.

Throw at any NFL corner 10+ times in a game and they're likely going to be handsy on a few, and likely going to get burned on at least one. It's a very difficult position to perfect at the NFL level.

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1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

To my knowledge, it hasn't been called a penalty yet this season, or the preseason. Maybe guys are getting fined for it behind the scenes, but I doubt that's significantly impacting players' approach.

Has it not been called because it isn't being attempted? I feel like that play with Anzalone and Walker is a perfect example. Instead of trying to wrestle him to the ground, I think he attempts the hip drop tackle. 

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