9/25/24 6:40PM Rays @ Tigers

[monkeytargets39]

Hey, hey, hey….

 

Jacoby Jones would’ve been a perennial all-star if we had just given him 1000 more ABs

[Sports_Freak]

17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Exactly this.

So Al Avila drafted and signed some young ballplayers. You could have done that. Maybe I could have done that. Acquiring the ballplayers is, relatively speaking, the easy part. Developing them into contributing big leaguers is the hard part, and as a wise man once said, Al Avila couldn't develop film.

Half of this lazy article was naming all these guys on the team who were first acquired by Avila. The list included first-rounders Tork, Mize, Manning, Faedo. These are success stories? With periodic exceptions, they've ranged from flashes of slightly above average to awful. Tony Paul also named Jackson Jobe, who has even stepped on the field during a game yet. Of all the first rounders, Riley Greene was the one nut the squirrel found, and he was a consensus pick at #5 overall everyone would have taken—as with Tork and Mize.

Then there are the second rounders: Parker Meadows, who took six years to become a contributor here. Kind of a long time for a second rounder, but that's how long it took to iron out the funk in his game. Dingler took four to get his shot. That's pretty normal. But between them? Daniel Cabrera, stuck in neutral and serving as org depth, and Nick Quintana, now floundering in the Reds' system. Al's last two second-rounders, Izaac Pacheco (2021) and Peyron Graham (2022), are still dog-paddling their way through A-ball (although Graham did find his way to Erie for the last game of the season).

Third-rounders? Kody Clemens (nepo pick). Andre Lipicius. Trei Cruz. Either gone, done, or out of the Top 30.

In the meantime, who have been the most impactful picks for us? Tarik Skubal (9th round). Colt Keith (5th). Kerry Carpenter (19th). Will Vest (12th). Basically lotto ticket rounds, even Colt Keith, the only fifth-rounder from that draft worth a damn.

How about undrafted free agent signings? Tony Paul names Jason Foley, Wenceel Perez, and Keider Montero. All from 2016. Foley started seeing trigger time in 2021 and did OK, but didn't really turn it on until last year, the first season of the Harris administration. The other two took eight years—or well clear of the Avila misdevelopment curse—to even start contributing at the big league level.

But here's the main takeaway, in case you're missing it: not one of these guys was a success during the Avila years. Not one. They didn't succeed until Scott Harris came onboard and remade the entire scouting and development function. Even Riley Greene, the one success story Al Avila could have fairly claimed, didn't start revving it up until Harris came aboard.

The reason any of Avila's guys are even in the organization is because Harris did a deep dive into everyone in the system, keeping those he and his team thought they could save, and getting rid of the rest. In any large group of players there will always be a few who can be saved. That's what's happening here, not Al Avila with some genius nine-year plan in which he cleverly plans to fail spectacularly for seven years then succeeds only after he's been gone for two.

And don't get me started on the part about analytics. We're supposed to believe that Al Avila is basically the godfather of Tigers analytics, and Harris's contribution was merely to expand on its usage? I mean, really. Come on.

 

While I agree with most of this, I can't agree with Avila actually doing anything more than just being in charge when players got drafted. He had a team of scouts in place who gave him advice on who to draft. Giving Avila credit for much of anything is giving him too much credit. I understand that IF he was told to slash payroll, that he was forced to trade away all of our ML talent. But he took some very poor advice on the returns. He slashed payroll but the players he received were very underwhelming. Who's left? Jake Rogers? Olson? I can't think of many other remaining players. 

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So Al Avila drafted and signed some young ballplayers. You could have done that.

well, I might like to think so, but Randy Smith apparently could not.

[Sports_Freak]

8 minutes ago, oblong said:

Agree with all of that. Players are not finished products when drafted.  There isn’t a super secret decoder to finding the good ones in the 13th round.  The franchise was epically bad at this going back to the 80s. It was written off as if they were victims of their own success either from low draft position or losing picks from FA signings. Bunk. 

Well, the MLB draft is pretty much a crapshoot. It's just so very hard to see where HS players will develop into in 3 to 5 years. College players are a bit easier to judge but most of the better ones are gone in the early rounds. And the earlier picks (Tork) are given much more time and many more chances than later rounds picks. The smart move would be to move on if these guys don't start producing after a certain amount of at bats. Tork's recent issue with sliders is really starting to remind me of Javy. If the Tigers can't get him to lay off of that pitch, it's pretty hopeless. It's almost time to move on...

[chasfh]

4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

While I agree with most of this, I can't agree with Avila actually doing anything more than just being in charge when players got drafted. He had a team of scouts in place who gave him advice on who to draft. Giving Avila credit for much of anything is giving him too much credit. I understand that IF he was told to slash payroll, that he was forced to trade away all of our ML talent. But he took some very poor advice on the returns. He slashed payroll but the players he received were very underwhelming. Who's left? Jake Rogers? Olson? I can't think of many other remaining players. 

Avila is responsible for employing the team of scouts who gave him the advice on whom to draft, so he takes full responsibility for the advice they give him, and that goes double if he actually followed it.

Yes, Jake Rogers is left from sending the Astros Justin Verlander, who could still pitch at the top of his game for anyone who could unlock it, plus $40 million. And Olson is the one trade piece Harris inherited whom he could save and get value out of.

[chasfh]

Just now, Sports_Freak said:

Well, the MLB draft is pretty much a crapshoot. It's just so very hard to see where HS players will develop into in 3 to 5 years. College players are a bit easier to judge but most of the better ones are gone in the early rounds. And the earlier picks (Tork) are given much more time and many more chances than later rounds picks. The smart move would be to move on if these guys don't start producing after a certain amount of at bats. Tork's recent issue with sliders is really starting to remind me of Javy. If the Tigers can't get him to lay off of that pitch, it's pretty hopeless. It's almost time to move on...

Try telling Tony Paul this, I guess.

In any event, to the degree that drafting is a crapshoot but development is less so, I have some level of confidence that the Harris team knows better than most what high school players they select will develop into with the next three to five years.

[Sports_Freak]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Try telling Tony Paul this, I guess.

In any event, to the degree that drafting is a crapshoot but development is less so, I have some level of confidence that the Harris team knows better than most what high school players they select will develop into with the next three to five years.

Whoever is currently in charge says they know best what to do and how to do it. I still remember Avila (or Chris?) declaring the rebuild was over. Then we went out and lost about 200 games the next couple of seasons. 

And yeah, Harris may do a good job. But the results will be on the field and the standing, not by talk.

[IdahoBert]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Exactly this.

So Al Avila drafted and signed some young ballplayers. You could have done that. Maybe I could have done that. Acquiring the ballplayers is, relatively speaking, the easy part. Developing them into contributing big leaguers is the hard part, and as a wise man once said, Al Avila couldn't develop film.

Half of this lazy article was naming all these guys on the team who were first acquired by Avila. The list included first-rounders Tork, Mize, Manning, Faedo. These are success stories? With periodic exceptions, they've ranged from flashes of slightly above average to awful. Tony Paul also named Jackson Jobe, who has even stepped on the field during a game yet. Of all the first rounders, Riley Greene was the one nut the squirrel found, and he was a consensus pick at #5 overall everyone would have taken—as with Tork and Mize.

Then there are the second rounders: Parker Meadows, who took six years to become a contributor here. Kind of a long time for a second rounder, but that's how long it took to iron out the funk in his game. Dingler took four to get his shot. That's pretty normal. But between them? Daniel Cabrera, stuck in neutral and serving as org depth, and Nick Quintana, now floundering in the Reds' system. Al's last two second-rounders, Izaac Pacheco (2021) and Peyron Graham (2022), are still dog-paddling their way through A-ball (although Graham did find his way to Erie for the last game of the season).

Third-rounders? Kody Clemens (nepo pick). Andre Lipicius. Trei Cruz. Either gone, done, or out of the Top 30.

In the meantime, who have been the most impactful picks for us? Tarik Skubal (9th round). Colt Keith (5th). Kerry Carpenter (19th). Will Vest (12th). Basically lotto ticket rounds, even Colt Keith, the only fifth-rounder from that draft worth a damn.

How about undrafted free agent signings? Tony Paul names Jason Foley, Wenceel Perez, and Keider Montero. All from 2016. Foley started seeing trigger time in 2021 and did OK, but didn't really turn it on until last year, the first season of the Harris administration. The other two took eight years—or well clear of the Avila misdevelopment curse—to even start contributing at the big league level.

But here's the main takeaway, in case you're missing it: not one of these guys was a success during the Avila years. Not one. They didn't succeed until Scott Harris came onboard and remade the entire scouting and development function. Even Riley Greene, the one success story Al Avila could have fairly claimed, didn't start revving it up until Harris came aboard.

The reason any of Avila's guys are even in the organization is because Harris did a deep dive into everyone in the system, keeping those he and his team thought they could save, and getting rid of the rest. In any large group of players there will always be a few who can be saved. That's what's happening here, not Al Avila with some genius nine-year plan in which he cleverly plans to fail spectacularly for seven years then succeeds only after he's been gone for two.

And don't get me started on the part about analytics. We're supposed to believe that Al Avila is basically the godfather of Tigers analytics, and Harris's contribution was merely to expand on its usage? I mean, really. Come on.

 

Posts like this are the reason I still come here. Thank you. 

[RatkoVarda]

Yankees have lost Nestor Cortez (maybe for the year)

Grayson Rodriguez is out until 2025

Austin Riley is out until 2025

This just reinforces the importance of getting into the playoffs every year - anything can happen!

[Tenacious D]

Didn’t Avila hire our current Head of Player Development?

I think it’s inaccurate and unfair to suggest Avila had little to do with how the team is playing.  

Harris deserves credit, too-there doesn’t have to be a villain here.  Al took too long and made some missteps along the way, but he was not a total disaster. 

[Dino]

Excuse my ignoance, but who had the final decision to hire Harris? THEY should get some credit.

[SoCalTiger]

4 hours ago, oblong said:

man, I wish I could read that but $10 a month is too much for a newspaper nowadays.  

They have a 6 months for $1 deal for new accounts. Might have to call to get it. Good for playoffs and off season Tiger 🐅 news. 

[lordstanley]

I've decided that getting the 2nd wildcard instead of the 3rd is meaningful to me. Houston is playing their best ball of the year whereas the O's have been sluggish since the All-Star break. I get the Tigers and O's have played each other a lot recently, but that goes both ways. 

[lordstanley]

6 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

They have a 6 months for $1 deal for new accounts. Might have to call to get it. Good for playoffs and off season Tiger 🐅 news. 

That's what I did in November. Timed it to get the Michigan and Lions bowl/playoff coverage and the Red Wings' playoff drive. Of course I forgot to cancel on time so ended up paying bigger money for May and June. When I called there they were still willing to offer me something good to continue, I think it was $5 per month.

[Sports_Freak]

Jobe tonight? I hope the kid doesn't struggle if so.

[IdahoBert]

Erie won the Eastern League title. Cool. 

[Sports_Freak]

Montero is tight.

[oblong]

41 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

They have a 6 months for $1 deal for new accounts. Might have to call to get it. Good for playoffs and off season Tiger 🐅 news. 

I’m not new. I tried that a few months ago and was charged $14 for the month. 

[Sports_Freak]

Dingler isn't do him any favors.

[Tigermojo]

Fans are into it.

[Sports_Freak]

Whew.

[IdahoBert]

Whew… Wenceel snags it. A bit too much excitement for me in the first ending hopefully Montero settles down.

[gehringer_2]

well, Krieder should be good and loose now....

[Sports_Freak]

Montero needs to relax. Sometimes people forget he's a rookie. Leash...short.

[monkeytargets39]

It’s worth noting that the umpires have seemingly been more favorable to us lately.  Earlier in the year we were getting screwed by them considerably worse than any other team.