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American League Division Series Game #1 10/5/24 1:08PM Tigers @ Guardians


Tigeraholic1

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6 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

Climbing Tal’s Hill was a dumb name for a site even when Tal’s Hill existed.  They should’ve renamed it years ago to something less sucky and unfunny.  

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6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Got to pitch Skub Game 1 & 4 and hopefully there is no Game 5

I don't think they pitch him on short rest since he can still pitch twice.  Maybe they will, but he's already well over his max innings and isn't used to pitching on 3 days rest.

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I'd rather save him for game 2 just because if you can steal game 1, then you are in great shape to come home 2-0.  If you don't, you are in great shape for a split on regular rest.

There wll be two off days before game 1, and 2 more between games 1 and 3 to rest the guys that go in game 1 and if Skubal has a good game then you only need a couple there.

But I see the logic in going 1-4 as well.   If they win the series then whatever option they pick will be considerred genius.

 

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1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

The challenge is that if you pitch him Game 2 on Monday,  there’s no way that he can go in what may be a must win Game 4 on Thursday.    He may not even get a chance to pitch twice.

Of course if he pitches on short rest, he may only be able to go 5 on Saturday (and it may not be normal Skubal) and we lose that game anyway.

Overall, I think they go 2 and 5 as his long term health is also a factor.  They have been able to win with the matchups, I think they will trust that again.  Reese is completely ready for Saturday as will be the entire pen.  Trust the matchups Saturday, Let Skubal go Monday, hope to get 7+ out of him, and have a fresh staff for game 3 again on Wednesday.

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1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

and have a fresh staff for game 3 again on Wednesday.

This is a good point too. The day after Skubal pitches you can usually assume everyone but Skubal is available. Using 7+ arms on Saturday, they'd all be back for Tuesday and you'd have a full bullpen to get creative with between games three and four.

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Drew Koch (are all Kochs delusional?) wrote that Tals Hill story, saying Mize or Olsen would start game 2 for us and that we had burned through a “ton” of relievers to finish game 1. Clueless on so many levels. I wonder if the Astros players felt the same sort of dismissive attitude, based on how they have historically succeeded so often. They may have thought they were playing the June Tigers, not the August/September/October Tigers. I recall Hader pulling out his batter chart to see how he should pitch to a Tiger (don’t remember who), as if he had slept through the pregame review for pitchers.
 

On to Cleveland and victory!

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2 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I guess it comes down to me being more scared of possibly losing the series in 4 games and Skubal only pitching once than I am of him possibly struggling in Game 1 on short rest.  

I get this, but if they pitch Skubal in 2&5 and then go LWLL so he only pitches once, it doesn't really inspire confidence that they would have pulled out a game five if you could do it all over and have him pitch 1&4. He won't play in three games this series. They can't go 0/3 in those games, no matter what order they come in.

For at least one game, the bullpen will have to carry them. If they can make that happen in game one, I give them an 80% chance or better of winning the series with two Skubal starts to go.

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4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I get this, but if they pitch Skubal in 2&5 and then go LWLL so he only pitches once, it doesn't really inspire confidence that they would have pulled out a game five if you could do it all over and have him pitch 1&4. He won't play in three games this series. They can't go 0/3 in those games, no matter what order they come in.

For at least one game, the bullpen will have to carry them. If they can make that happen in game one, I give them an 80% chance or better of winning the series with two Skubal starts to go.

Exactly.  Having to win 1 non-Skubal start no matter what, I'd feel much better it being game 1 after 2 off days or game 3 on Wednesday with a Skubal start and 2 off days in between, and have Skubal for a potential winner take all, compared to having to win with Skubal doing something he never has before (pitch on short rest) and if he happens to win both, but we have a game 5, then having the chaos game on a winner take all game.

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I have zero fears of winning non-Skubal games.  I have no trepidation about the bully.   He’s such a weapon that I think it’s smart to maximize it as much as possible in a short series.  I don’t want to even mess around with the chance of getting down and not having him as an option if our back are against the wall.  

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1 hour ago, IdahoBert said:

Yeah...that was fun to read just now! I'm glad you found it and shared it.

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