American League Division Series Game #1 10/5/24 1:08PM Tigers @ Guardians

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, Screwball said:

Short rest or not (only 1 day) - arguably, the best pitcher in baseball should get 2 starts in 3 games in a best of 5 series. If he does his job, you only need one more win, series over.

If they didn't want to risk his health, I understand that. I don't know if they gave an explanation.

He'll still get 2 starts if it goes 5 games.  We didn't get an explanation because Hinch and Harris don't like to reveal what they are doing ahead of time.  They believe it gives them a advantage if the other team is guessing.  Of course, that means fans are left guessing too which can be annoying.  In this case, it wasn't a surprise since Skubal has never pitched on three days rest.

Edited October 6 by Tiger337

[holygoat]

6 hours ago, Screwball said:

Short rest or not (only 1 day) - arguably, the best pitcher in baseball should get 2 starts in 3 games in a best of 5 series. If he does his job, you only need one more win, series over.

If they didn't want to risk his health, I understand that. I don't know if they gave an explanation.

Skubal has pitched nearly the same amount of innings this season as the previous two combined, and over 40 innings more than his previous high back in 2021. When you pair that with Skubal's injury history, the Tigers are right to be cautious with him wrt pitching him on short rest. Even if it's "only" one day, it makes a difference. 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, holygoat said:

Skubal has pitched nearly the same amount of innings this season as the previous two combined, and over 40 innings more than his previous high back in 2021. When you pair that with Skubal's injury history, the Tigers are right to be cautious with him wrt pitching him on short rest. Even if it's "only" one day, it makes a difference. 

agree.  A day is not a big deal per se, but a starting pitcher is on a 5 day progressive regimen to prep to throw 90-100 pitches. Upset the regimen and if he goes out there feeling at all unsettled/abnormal you can end up with an injury too easily. If he was a guy with several long seasons under his belt who had pitched long enough to understand his own body better that would be one thing, but Skubal can't be that guy at this point.

Edited October 6 by gehringer_2

[monkeytargets39]

4 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Game 1 starter can pitch Game 4 on full rest. Game 2 starter can pitch Game 5 on full rest.

Which is a problem for us if we want to get a second Skubal start in game 5, because we consistently have never hit Bibee well and he probably goes game 4.

I’ll be curious to see the game 3 strategy since we will use Skubal tomorrow and already used Reese.  

[Tigermojo]

Skubal's shirt he was wearing today 

 

[chasfh]

People might hate Stinky McStinkface here, but the official scorers let him off the hook, as far as they’re concerned. 

 

[Screwball]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

He'll still get 2 starts if it goes 5 games.  We didn't get an explanation because Hinch and Harris don't like to reveal what they are doing ahead of time.  They believe it gives them a advantage if the other team is guessing.  Of course, that means fans are left guessing too which can be annoying.  In this case, it wasn't a surprise since Skubal has never pitched on three days rest.

I'll use this response but same answer applies to all of the above. Now that I understand how they have been doing things - keep them guessing - that helps it make more sense. Maybe steal game one with chaos and have the Ace for game two? That's part of the fun with these guys, no? I think so, now that I'm paying attention.

So does his pitching history, which everyone has explained, and I have also looked into. For example, Verlander had these IP type numbers his first two years. That's two in a row. Skupal doesn't. That matters.

This is also my age. Back when I played this was a given, but the game was played different then. I have battled with this game I grew up playing and loving but it's been a love/hate relationship. I have lost track, obviously. It's a different time, the game is played a different way, for better or worse I guess. I'm going to enjoy this (maybe) since it's now a bucket list kind of thing and I'm roped in at this point.

I still think what they have done this year is one of the greatest sports stories in a very long time. And given I live in Ohio, in the middle of Indian country.........The story I could tell about the Cleveland drummer in left field. RIP.

I know it was a different time, different kind of pitcher, at a different point in his career, but I'm guessing The Mick would say; hold my beer. 1968 WS was one of the neatest things ever. I actually got to see one of McLain's wins that year. Different time and era.

Go Tigers!!!!!!!

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, Tigermojo said:

Skubal's shirt he was wearing today 

 

I've been wanting a Tigers 2024 Playoff Odds shirt.

[Tigermojo]

3 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I've been wanting a Tigers 2024 Playoff Odds shirt.

https://rotowear.com/products/gritty-shirt?variant=41690009698327&currency=USD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&utm_campaign=gs-2018-11-01&utm_source=google&utm_medium=smart_campaign&gad_source=4&gclid=Cj0KCQjw6oi4BhD1ARIsAL6pox0Ejt_k12QqOdCaRIvekrg4rAbaOdy0CfBqpZJsZqpdVNMo-tuFs7saAnYTEALw_wcB

[Tenacious D]

In hindsight, given our offensive output from yesterday, I’m glad we didn’t waste a Skubal effort.

The team looked a bit tight yesterday—hopefully with the first game under their belt and Matty Boyd pitching, we’ll see a much better outcome.

[casimir]

It'd be rude to sweep through the playoffs.  So, hey, just kick their ass in game 2 to even things up.

[casimir]

53 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

https://rotowear.com/products/gritty-shirt?variant=41690009698327&currency=USD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&utm_campaign=gs-2018-11-01&utm_source=google&utm_medium=smart_campaign&gad_source=4&gclid=Cj0KCQjw6oi4BhD1ARIsAL6pox0Ejt_k12QqOdCaRIvekrg4rAbaOdy0CfBqpZJsZqpdVNMo-tuFs7saAnYTEALw_wcB

I kind of like that pitching chaos shirt.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

I still think what they have done this year is one of the greatest sports stories in a very long time. And given I live in

Definitely true and I don't think the national media quite gets that.  What else is new?   

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

In hindsight, given our offensive output from yesterday, I’m glad we didn’t waste a Skubal effort.

The team looked a bit tight yesterday—hopefully with the first game under their belt and Matty Boyd pitching, we’ll see a much better outcome.

The bats may have been very different had Skubal pitched.  He gives the entire team extra confidence when he’s out there. We’ve seen that all season.    

They were going to need to win games without him either way so I can’t fault the team for valuing his health. I hope that we don’t find ourselves facing elimination in game 4.   That would be really tough to not have him.  

 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Hongbit said:

The bats may have been very different had Skubal pitched.  He gives the entire team extra confidence when he’s out there. We’ve seen that all season.    

They were going to need to win games without him either way so I can’t fault the team for valuing his health. I hope that we don’t find ourselves facing elimination in game 4.   That would be really tough to not have him.  

 

I suppose in retrospect Hinch maybe played game 1 one step too clever. If he had just started Olson, who was ready, it's also a different script. We can't resist over analyzing it, even if on cool reflection we know that when a 92 win team goes against an 86 win team the difference in the win probability between them is too close to zero spend a lot energy trying to decide 'what went wrong.' 

[Shelton]

You obviously have to make a lot of assumptions when discussing this particular pitching strategy for a series. If the assumption is that Skubal will win both games, then it doesn’t really matter when he pitches. You only need to win one non-Skubal game to get to game 5, and it doesn’t matter which one it is. The key difference is that you win it in four game instead of five in the event you get that win in game 2 or 3 after winning game 1.

In my opinion, the important thing is not leaving Cleveland down 2-0. I think pitching Skubal in game 2 was the move that maximizes that possibility. The way you leave down 2-0 is obviously if you lose the Skubal game and the other one, and putting Skubal in game 1 makes each game closer to a coin flip. That said, the skubal in game 1 strategy also increases your chances of being up 2-0 relative to the game 2 strategy. 
 

I guess my point is, even if he was on four days rest heading into game 1, it might have still made strategic sense to start him in game 2. Anyway, the short rest issue makes the whole argument moot, anyway, especially for a guy that was pitching on five days rest in September when possible already. 

[Tiger337]

If days of rest were not an issue,  I would have pitched Skubal in game 1.  The sooner they win this series, the more days rest he gets before his first start in the third round of the playoffs.  Keep pitching him as early as possible in each series and you might end up with an extra start out of him by the end of the World Series.