The future of Colt Keith

[Arlington]

At one time Keith was a potential pitching prospect.  His arm rated out as plus at 60 and he started out as a 3rd baseman in part because of the arm and partly because of a perceived lack of range in the middle.  Now Baseball Savant rates his arm strength at the 10th percentile and his range at the 64th.  With a 10th percentile arm he's not going to see the left side of the infield.  His defensive value is at the 59th percentile so he is a plus at second.  I hope his arm is still in recovery. 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Arlington said:

With a 10th percentile arm he's not going to see the left side of the infield.  His defensive value is at the 59th percentile so he is a plus at second.  I hope his arm is still in recovery. 

Not sure 10% arm passes  the smell test if you watched his DP turns in the 2nd half. If he is at 10%, all the other 2B on the team must be lower!

Arm strength  metrics for the right side are generally tough, there are so few throws where arm strength was going to be the difference between an out made or not made.

[Longgone]

6 hours ago, Arlington said:

At one time Keith was a potential pitching prospect.  His arm rated out as plus at 60 and he started out as a 3rd baseman in part because of the arm and partly because of a perceived lack of range in the middle.  Now Baseball Savant rates his arm strength at the 10th percentile and his range at the 64th.  With a 10th percentile arm he's not going to see the left side of the infield.  His defensive value is at the 59th percentile so he is a plus at second.  I hope his arm is still in recovery. 

Scouting grades are not static. They depend on when you see the player. If you saw him struggling post recovery, sure he wouldn’t grade very well. He may, or may not, make it all or most of the way back.

[HeyAbbott]

With Keith, I would think a good off-season could reveal a stronger and more sturdy arm then last year. He also appears to be getting bigger and stronger.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, HeyAbbott said:

With Keith, I would think a good off-season could reveal a stronger and more sturdy arm then last year. He also appears to be getting bigger and stronger.

IOW - move him to 3rd.  

I am really curious whether they will at least have him work out there a little in ST. Seems like a no-brainer if his arm is fully healed.

Edited Tuesday at 02:29 PM by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

Somebody is gonna have to buy a 1B mitt, depending on what we pursue externally this offseason.

Call it Tork Insurance.

[monkeytargets39]

Hypothetically if Keith were to move back to 3B, what’s the move at 2B?  Hard platoon with Ibanez and Jung?  Is that good enough?  The idea of getting more right handed power on the team then pretty much shifts entirely to upgrading Torkelson or getting Adames—which would mean eating the Baez contract.

Vierling being a primary outfielder is fine, but there are some things that Perez and JHM bring to the table that I don’t want to see the team lose out on.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

Hypothetically if Keith were to move back to 3B, what’s the move at 2B?  Hard platoon with Ibanez and Jung?  Is that good enough?  The idea of getting more right handed power on the team then pretty much shifts entirely to upgrading Torkelson or getting Adames—which would mean eating the Baez contract.

Vierling being a primary outfielder is fine, but there are some things that Perez and JHM bring to the table that I don’t want to see the team lose out on.

It's a lot of moving pieces! To me, there are two possible motivators for trying Keith back at 3rd - both depend on his arm being OK of course. The first would be his range gets worse as he grows into his frame, the 2nd would be Jace Jung hits but keeps playing a poor 3rd base and assuming they think he would be better at 2nd since that was his 'natural' position before they moved him for Colt. In either scenario Jung ends up at 2nd if he hits. If he doesn't and they move Keith anyway I think 2b is wide open. Or Keith could move back and forth: Vierling RF, Keith 3B, Ibanez 2B against LHP; Vierling 3B, Keith 2B, Carpenter OF against RHP. 

[Arlington]

12 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's a lot of moving pieces! To me, there are two possible motivators for trying Keith back at 3rd - both depend on his arm being OK of course. The first would be his range gets worse as he grows into his frame, the 2nd would be Jace Jung hits but keeps playing a poor 3rd base and assuming they think he would be better at 2nd since that was his 'natural' position before they moved him for Colt. In either scenario Jung ends up at 2nd if he hits. If he doesn't and they move Keith anyway I think 2b is wide open. Or Keith could move back and forth: Vierling RF, Keith 3B, Ibanez 2B against LHP; Vierling 3B, Keith 2B, Carpenter OF against RHP. 

Wasn't Jung getting accolades for his D at 2nd at one point.  The transition to third has been a disappointment.  Jace maybe on Harris' list of touchable prospects.  A left-handed bat with power at second would appeal to some teams and we might do better with a right-handed infielder. 

Colt is a tremendous worker which probably was a big factor in his extension.  He is running better than projected and his range is significantly better than projected.  He'll keep at it at and become a plus defensive second baseman. 

Edited Wednesday at 03:58 PM by Arlington

[ICroupier]

Keith being capable of handling 3rd would be huge for the team for all the reasons mentioned and more.

Beyond Jung, there's also Lee who may need to be factored into 2B plans - and maybe even Anderson (although I'm not sold on him). And then in 2 years, McGonigle will be forcing his way into the lineup somewhere.

But 3B remains the position with the biggest uncertainty.

[1776]

If I were to suggest a possible trade for a 3rd baseman, how about a look at Casey Schmitt of the Giants? His primary position is 3rd base but can play  other infield positions. He’ll be 26 before the season starts (still young) and is a guy you could trade for with upside. Chapman made him expendable in SF and I’d think inquiring about him would be worthwhile. 
I know it’s throwing yet another name in a jumbled mix but he could be a starter on opening day. He’s another one of those players that would likely be a better player by just getting out of a particular environment. 
Just a thought…
 

[Arlington]

This comment is going to get a lot of ptooeys, and it all depends on whether the back surgery fixed what was ailing him for the last few years.  He has been a horrifically bat batter getting beat by the same set of pitches repeatedly.  Baez played a lot of positions his first few years with the Cubs. If he could reestablish his bat, he could fit in well with the Hinch concept of multi utility playing.  His spits don't show a particular advantage against left handers, which is an argument against this, but a weak side platoon with Sweeney - who might be too much of a glove first ss - might be useful, and then using him as a right-handed option at the other three infield positions. Granted we have Ibanez doing the same thing.  My guess is that the Tigers are giving him a short leash next year.  At least I hope they are.  I do see the possibility of him fitting in well with the team if he solves his bat problem.

 

 

[Sports_Freak]

55 minutes ago, Arlington said:

This comment is going to get a lot of ptooeys, and it all depends on whether the back surgery fixed what was ailing him for the last few years.  He has been a horrifically bat batter getting beat by the same set of pitches repeatedly.  Baez played a lot of positions his first few years with the Cubs. If he could reestablish his bat, he could fit in well with the Hinch concept of multi utility playing.  His spits don't show a particular advantage against left handers, which is an argument against this, but a weak side platoon with Sweeney - who might be too much of a glove first ss - might be useful, and then using him as a right-handed option at the other three infield positions. Granted we have Ibanez doing the same thing.  My guess is that the Tigers are giving him a short leash next year.  At least I hope they are.  I do see the possibility of him fitting in well with the team if he solves his bat problem.

 

 

I remember seeing a stat that showed a pretty good BA for Javy with RISP. I'm not sure how it was last season.