Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:37 PM, romad1 said: The media being cowed by Trump is going to do a lot of work to blanket over him selling wristwatches, plates, Hummel figurines, and whatever trash bearing his name image and likeness while he's taking office. Expand Quote
pfife Posted January 18 Posted January 18 That sounds like something cspan would do for every inauguration Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 7:06 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: Expand That should keep the crows out of the garden for a while Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 Gonna be a very long four years for some. Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 If history is any indicator, it very well could be for the GOP lol Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 7:56 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: Gonna be a very long four years for some. Expand I hope you stocked up on TP and beer Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:56 AM, mtutiger said: Speaking of work, can you update us on what Donald Trump plans to do on day one to lower the cost of consumer goods? Expand Cat got your tongue, Hoss? Curious how inflation and cost of consumer goods magically disappeared from the zeitgeist on 6 November... Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:07 PM, mtutiger said: Cat got your tongue, Hoss? Curious how inflation and cost of consumer goods magically disappeared from the zeitgeist on 6 November... Expand Well it continues to rise up until literally this weeks report under the lefts control. I have never suggested Monday will magically correct it. If that’s a gotcha ya got me Hoss. Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 18 Posted January 18 Megaholic has a thought about a concept about an answer for the plan. It will probably be in the form of a question Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 (edited) On 1/18/2025 at 8:04 PM, CMRivdogs said: I hope you stocked up on TP and beer Expand Why? Please show your work. Edited January 18 by Tigeraholic1 Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:12 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: Why? Please show your work. Expand Why not? My work is self explanatory. Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 (edited) On 1/18/2025 at 8:12 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: I have never suggested Monday will magically correct it. Expand Donald Trump has frequently said he would resolve inflation and cost of living issues, and would do so in short order. Yet many of his proposals (such as his tariff plans, healthcare, various cuts being proposed under the auspices of DOGE, etc.) would, taken to their logical end, would increase inflation. Exit polling post-election, as well as general over the past week or so, indicates that despite the marked lack of discussion from his transition team as to the economy and cost issues (they have largely talked about immigration and culture war issues instead), this is the number one reason he won and remains the number one issue for voters So what's the plan? What's he gonna do? Is he prepared to deal with any of this when he takes the oath? If and when costs begin to rise at a faster pace, how much rope does he get? Because I have seen zero indication whatsoever that he'll make my life any better on that front Edited January 18 by mtutiger 1 Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 (edited) On 1/18/2025 at 8:19 PM, mtutiger said: Donald Trump has frequently said he would resolve inflation and cost of living issues, and would do so in short order. Yet many of his proposals (such as his tariff plans, healthcare, various cuts being proposed under the auspices of DOGE, etc.) would, taken to their logical end, would increase inflation. Exit polling post-election, as well as general over the past week or so, indicates that despite the marked lack of discussion from his transition team as to the economy and cost issues (they have largely talked about immigration and culture war issues instead), this is the number one reason he won and remains the number one issue for voters So what's the plan? What's he gonna do? Is he prepared to deal with any of this when he takes the oath? If and when costs begin to rise at a faster pace, how much rope does he get? Because I have seen zero indication whatsoever that he'll make my life any better on that front Expand His term is going to be determined in large part by whether Powell and Fed's actions over the last 30 months was enough to stop inflation, or if they missed just enough that they are going to have to do another dose of contraction. If it's the latter, Trump is probably doomed before he starts, and there is really nothing that can be done to unbake the current economic pie. If he pressures the Fed to cut short interest rates more, inflation can only get worse than it would have. If the Fed starts raising again, in the public view he will have failed before he started. Tariffs will be both inflationary and recessionary, so there is almost no way to win with that tool. Tax cuts that increase the deficit would be easy to campaign against with the cost of government borrowing going up. Now if we are lucky and the Fed has actually hit it right, and the CPI holding pattern of the last couple of months is just a blip on a longer downward trend, then none of the above may have to happen. But no-one knows with any certainty which is the case. DJT has led a pretty charmed life to far - I'm sure he believes his luck will hold. Edited January 18 by gehringer_2 Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:19 PM, mtutiger said: Donald Trump has frequently said he would resolve inflation and cost of living issues, and would do so in short order. Yet many of his proposals (such as his tariff plans, healthcare, various cuts being proposed under the auspices of DOGE, etc.) would, taken to their logical end, would increase inflation. Exit polling post-election, as well as general over the past week or so, indicates that despite the marked lack of discussion from his transition team as to the economy and cost issues (they have largely talked about immigration and culture war issues instead), this is the number one reason he won and remains the number one issue for voters So what's the plan? What's he gonna do? Is he prepared to deal with any of this when he takes the oath? If and when costs begin to rise at a faster pace, how much rope does he get? Because I have seen zero indication whatsoever that he'll make my life any better on that front Expand I expect a lot of whining like this from people who did not vote for him. It’s just a side effect of the symptom. Quote
Tigeraholic1 Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 In case anyone was looking for an alternative rally to attend Monday. Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: I expect a lot of whining like this from people who did not vote for him. It’s just a side effect of the symptom. Expand So the answer is that you don't have any answers. Thanks for clarifying. Would add that your response (calling legit questions "whining") kinda confirms you aren't interested in serious engagement on any of this stuff. Quote
CMRivdogs Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: I expect a lot of whining like this from people who did not vote for him. It’s just a side effect of the symptom. Expand And we will bide no whining from Trumpublicans that they can't accomplish anything because of a razor thin majority. Anything that happens in the next 2-4 years is squarely on Trump/Musk Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:54 PM, gehringer_2 said: His term is going to be determined in large part by whether Powell and Fed's actions over the last 30 months was enough to stop inflation, or if they missed just enough that they are going to have to do another dose of contraction. If it's the latter, Trump is probably doomed before he starts, and there is really nothing that can be done to unbake the current economic pie. If he pressures the Fed to cut short interest rates more, inflation can only get worse than it would have. If the Fed starts raising again, in the public view he will have failed before he started. Tariffs will be both inflationary and recessionary, so there is almost no way to win with that tool. Tax cuts that increase the deficit would be easy to campaign against with the cost of government borrowing going up. Now if we are lucky and the Fed has actually hit it right, and the CPI holding pattern of the last couple of months is just a blip on a longer downward trend, then none of the above may have to happen. But no-one knows with any certainty which is the case. DJT has led a pretty charmed life to far - I'm sure he believes his luck will hold. Expand I think you get the macroeconomics right - it's the impact of all the other stuff he's proposing and that some of it is inflationary that I take issue with. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 (edited) On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: I expect a lot of whining like this from people who did not vote for him. It’s just a side effect of the symptom. Expand I rather doubt all the people who have been chronically politically unhappy since about 2012 are going to get much happier under Trump. If the GOP doesn't hold in 2028 (and it's hard to imagine Trump giving Vance any air of his own) we will be on track to have 4 consecutive elections where a party either fails to re-elect an incumbent or hold the office. And actually Clinton, Bush and Obama were more the outliers serving two terms three times in a row - 4 of 5 if you count back to Reagan.) Other than the early stretch from Washington to Jackson there have been a lot of one term Presidencies. And I think this is the first presidency that has ever started out as lame duck on day one. I suppose you can say Truman was an immediate lame duck after his 1st election, but he had already served 3/4 of a term before he stood. Trump obviously is a past Prez, but with the 4 years out it's not/won't be the same admin at all. So we have no history as to how that plays. Edited January 18 by gehringer_2 1 Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:36 PM, gehringer_2 said: I rather doubt all the people who have been chronically politically unhappy since about 2012 are going to get much happier under Trump. If the GOP doesn't hold in 2028 (and it hard to imagine Trump giving Vance any air of his own) we will be track to have 4 consecutive elections where a party either fails to re-elect an incumbent or hold the office. And actually Clinton, Bush and Obama were more the outliers serving two terms three times in a row - 4 of 5 if you count back to Reagan.) Other than the string early stretch from Washington to Jackson there have been a lot of one term Presidencies. Expand This is spot on. Quote
Tigerbomb13 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: I expect a lot of whining like this from people who did not vote for him. It’s just a side effect of the symptom. Expand Lol, just call it whining when you have zero answers. Shocking. Quote
oblong Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:36 PM, gehringer_2 said: I rather doubt all the people who have been chronically politically unhappy since about 2012 are going to get much happier under Trump. If the GOP doesn't hold in 2028 (and it's hard to imagine Trump giving Vance any air of his own) we will be on track to have 4 consecutive elections where a party either fails to re-elect an incumbent or hold the office. And actually Clinton, Bush and Obama were more the outliers serving two terms three times in a row - 4 of 5 if you count back to Reagan.) Other than the early stretch from Washington to Jackson there have been a lot of one term Presidencies. And I think this is the first presidency that has ever started out as lame duck on day one. I suppose you can say Truman was an immediate lame duck after his 1st election, but he had already served 3/4 of a term before he stood. Trump obviously is a past Prez, but with the 4 years out it's not/won't be the same admin at all. So we have no history as to how that plays. Expand And Truman I think was still eligible to run so this is unique. Especially since he has no plans or goals other than staying out of jail. All the bluster is just PR. it is a lame duck presidency because he doesn’t have to worry about reelection but congress does. Quote
gehringer_2 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 10:02 PM, oblong said: And Truman I think was still eligible to run Expand Yes - you are correct. Truman has served more than half of FDR's term but I forgot the amendment didn't apply to till the Presidency after him. Apparently his prospects for re-election in '52 were pretty bad anyway, but that just goes to the point about most presidents not sustaining their popularity. 1 Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:47 PM, Tigerbomb13 said: Lol, just call it whining when you have zero answers. Shocking. Expand I just think it's funny in light of this: On 1/18/2025 at 7:56 PM, Tigeraholic1 said: Gonna be a very long four years for some. Expand On 1/18/2025 at 8:01 PM, mtutiger said: If history is any indicator, it very well could be for the GOP lol Expand Like, the winning party in the Presidential election is like the dog that catches the car... And when things don't work out to plan, the focus is on them, not anyone else. Trump and the GOP learned this in his first term. And they'll no doubt soon be getting reacclimated to this effect again Quote
mtutiger Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 10:02 PM, oblong said: And Truman I think was still eligible to run so this is unique. Especially since he has no plans or goals other than staying out of jail. All the bluster is just PR. it is a lame duck presidency because he doesn’t have to worry about reelection but congress does. Expand Really not talked about enough. Quote
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