Trumps Presidency 2025

[romad1]

Just now, mtutiger said:

I understand Justin... No need to apologize 

Elbows up

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I disagree. I think we're headed for 1970s style stagflation potentially. A situation where Trumpflation and higher prices are created because of his tariffs, trade wars with other trading partners, and economy volatility. Then, intermixed with that, you will have a recession because of the economic pressures put on businesses by the Trumpflation, trade wars, and overall day-to-day volatility and uncertainty of his policies. 

I don't know if the conditions of the 70's could be easily reproduced because the population demographics have shifted so much but you are correct that if the economy tanks, tax receipts will fall so deficits will go up - which means the Fed will either have to print more money to accommodate that (inflation) or tighten to counter weight the fiscal stimulus and make any recession worse. IOW a bad situation all 'round.

[ewsieg]

12 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Anyone have an idea on how reliant DTE is on energy from Ontario?

Can't speak to their reliance, but I know the St. Clair power plant in Ontario connects to the grid on our side of the St. Clair river.

[Motown Bombers]

I remember that power outage like 20 years ago knocked out power to Ontario along with Detroit and New York. Ontario is tax Michigan, Minnesota and New York. 

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Can't speak to their reliance, but I know the St. Clair power plant in Ontario connects to the grid on our side of the St. Clair river.

Yup, Ontario Hydro and the utilities in Quebec have been selling low cost hydro from Northern CAN into the US for decades, so the grid is connected all through the Great Lakes/St Lawence basin.

Edited Tuesday at 04:42 PM by gehringer_2

[ewsieg]

I would assume DTE also will be affected by natural gas tariffs as well, think that's only 10% though, but would effect every natural gas plant that they, regardless if they get their gas via Canada or not.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I don't know if the conditions of the 70's could be easily reproduced because the population demographics have shifted so much but you are correct that if the economy tanks, tax receipts will fall so deficits will go up - which means the Fed will either have to print more money to accommodate that (inflation) or tighten to counter weight the fiscal stimulus and make any recession worse. IOW a bad situation all 'round.

I don't think society and conditions today are mirror images of the 1970s and what created stagflation back then. But the economic conditions are increasingly becoming an environment where stagflation could return. How can the Fed combat inflation with increased interest rates if the economy is sliding off a cliff? Higher borrowing costs would only steepen a recession I would think. And if the Fed tries economic stimulus through some form of money printing or quantitative easing program, that runs the risk of heating up Trumpflation more and still not actually turning the economy around and getting it out of a recessionary slump.

[Motown Bombers]

Trump wants the US to stop getting its energy from Canada but will also punish states if it uses green energy such as wind. 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, ewsieg said:

I would assume DTE also will be affected by natural gas tariffs as well, think that's only 10% though, but would effect every natural gas plant that they, regardless if they get their gas via Canada or not.

US is very long on natural gas. But if the Canadians export tax Alberta oil that will definitely hit midwestern refineries hard.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, ewsieg said:

I would assume DTE also will be affected by natural gas tariffs as well, think that's only 10% though, but would effect every natural gas plant that they, regardless if they get their gas via Canada or not.

I don't understand the need to have a lower, 10% tariff on natural gas and oil versus the 25% tariff on everything else because Trump and his merrymen told us it's the country that get hits with the tariff that pays it, not consumers in the country levying the tariff.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

1 minute ago, Motown Bombers said:

Trump wants the US to stop getting its energy from Canada but will also punish states if it uses green energy such as wind. 

Trump understands things in the most elementary-like terms. He talks about things the way elementary school kids would if you asked them a simple economic or policy-related question. He has no capacity to articulate a factual, measured, thoughtful policy point of view or statement.

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower oil prices? Drill baby drill!

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower natural gas prices? Frack, frack, frack, frack, frack!

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower grocery prices? It will be easy to lower them. We'll just make them lower.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I don't understand the need to have a lower, 10% tariff on natural gas and oil versus

Trump may have fallen out with Tillerson but he apparently still has buddies in big oil.

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Trump understands things in the most elementary-like terms. He talks about things the way elementary school kids would if you asked them a simple economic or policy-related question. He has no capacity to articulate a factual, measured, thoughtful policy point of view or statement.

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower oil prices? Drill baby drill!

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower natural gas prices? Frack, frack, frack, frack, frack!

Mr. Trump, how are you going to lower grocery prices? It will be easy to lower them. We'll just make them lower.

I didn't pay much attention to Trump prior to running, but what really caught me by surprise is how genuinely dumb he is. I knew his businesses failed and he went bankrupt, but I assumed he some sort of sense. I didn't think Bush was particularly smart by presidential standards, but I feel he would still be smarter than most common people.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I don't understand the need to have a lower, 10% tariff on natural gas and oil versus the 25% tariff on everything else because Trump and his merrymen told us it's the country that get hits with the tariff that pays it, not consumers in the country levying the tariff.

Because the impacts of natural gas will be a bigger impact on consumers. At least my interpretation 

I live in IL... Most of our electricity (IIRC) is produced here, a byproduct of having the largest fleet of nuclear power plants in the country.

Gas and oil, OTOH, we are very leveraged by Canada. Trump's people understand that and want to reduce the blowback. It's still insanely stupid regardless, but that's the logic I'm seeing

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I didn't pay much attention to Trump prior to running, but what really caught me by surprise is how genuinely dumb he is. I knew his businesses failed and he went bankrupt, but I assumed he some sort of sense. I didn't think Bush was particularly smart by presidential standards, but I feel he would still be smarter than most common people.

What business acumen Trump has was gained in real estate and from that he has learned that everything is a zero sum game, the pie never grows, because pieces of land don't grow - you either have it, or the other guy has it. But of course that is one sliver of a giant economy where almost *nothing* else works that way. Outside of real estate, economics is exactly about creating more stuff out of nothing - it's all about synergy, integration, pooling resources to cooperate in the production of new wealth. He doesn't understand any of that.

Edited Tuesday at 04:59 PM by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

And, what was the point of delaying the tariffs a month? 

To give the countries a chance to give in to his demands and allow him to openly humiliate them.  

[Motown Bombers]

 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

17 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

What business acumen Trump has was gained in real estate and from that he has learned that everything is a zero sum game, the pie never grows, because pieces of land don't grow - you either have it, or the other guy has it. But of course that is one sliver of a giant economy where almost *nothing* else works that way. Outside of real estate, economics is exactly about creating more stuff out of nothing - it's all about synergy, integration, pooling resources to cooperate in the production of new wealth. He doesn't understand any of that.

I think the view of the economy has shifted. I think capitalism, whatever Adam Smith intended it to be, has been bastardized and become an exploitative game for the rich. How can I make the most money possible while paying the fewest people, the very least amount possible? Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel, and on are more representative of modern capitalism and its exploits than your average small business owner or business.

[romad1]

This prick is the worst

JD Vance calls UK 'some random country that hasn't fought war in 30 years' - Mirror Online

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, romad1 said:

This prick is the worst

JD Vance calls UK 'some random country that hasn't fought war in 30 years' - Mirror Online

The UK literally fought with the US in the Iraq war while that couch ****er was sitting in AC.

[romad1]

5 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The UK literally fought with the US in the Iraq war while that couch ****er was sitting in AC.

JD Vance being next in line for the WH is a problem. 

[mtutiger]

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Democrats need to be messaging in-terms of the Lord Farquaad approach that the average voter understands. I think it would be effective to hit Republicans with some version of a "sure that where be pain, job losses, income loss, and higher prices, but that's a sacrifice Trump is willing to make that will hit you and your family hard." Trump's whole game is the economy and if Democrats can make that house of cards fall he's politically in deep ****.

[Motown Bombers]

9 minutes ago, romad1 said:

JD Vance being next in line for the WH is a problem. 

He doesn't have the cult following Trump does. I don't think he can control Republicans the way Trump can. 

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Democrats need to be messaging in-terms of the Lord Farquaad approach that the average voter understands. I think it would be effective to hit Republicans with some version of a "sure that where be pain, job losses, income loss, and higher prices, but that's a sacrifice Trump is willing to make that will hit you and your family hard." Trump's whole game is the economy and if Democrats can make that house of cards fall he's politically in deep ****.

I would reinforce that when they say there will be pain, people like Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg etc won't be feeling the pain.