Trumps Presidency 2025

[chasfh]

46 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The problem is there are lot of people that really are unaffected AS OF NOW and there is no desperation AS OF NOW.  My two nephews don't vote and are not gettig any rights taken away AS OF NOW since they are straight white American males working in the private sector.  Both tell me AS OF NOW that politics is stupid and a waste of time.  They also both know that Trump is a joke, but they just don't care AS OF NOW.  I don't know if the wife of one of nephews voted.  At one point, she sad she wasn't voting because Biden was too old an senile and she felt sorry for him.  If she did eventually vote, it was for Harris.  My niece didn't vote because she knows nothing about politics.  She thinks Trump is nasty.  I think she can be reached.     

ftfy

AS OF NOW is not as far as it's ever going to go.

[chasfh]

25 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

please stop infantilizing non-voters. just stop.

you present this as Dems needing to constantly beg voters over and over to show up and to vote Democratic. it is a two-way street. voters have a responsibility too. anyone who gave just 2 minutes of attention to this election would have seen what was at stake and voted accordingly.

This sounds reasonable on paper, but I find it difficult to lay the blame at the feet of an entire population of people who, as with generations of people before them stretching back millennia, are only responding to the incentives and attainable alternatives being presented to them.

[RatkoVarda]

Just now, chasfh said:

the incentives and attainable alternatives being presented to them.

the incentives and alternatives were easily understood by all - there was no nuanced difference that needs to parsed between Trump and Harris

[romad1]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

This sounds reasonable on paper, but I find it difficult to lay the blame at the feet of an entire population of people who, as with generations of people before them stretching back millennia, are only responding to the incentives and attainable alternatives being presented to them.

The proles

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

please stop infantilizing non-voters. just stop.

you present this as Dems needing to constantly beg voters over and over to show up and to vote Democratic. it is a two-way street. voters have a responsibility too. anyone who gave just 2 minutes of attention to this election would have seen what was at stake and voted accordingly.

Yes, the Democrats do need to win votes.  They don't need to beg.  They need better candidates that know how to reach voters.  I think people in this forum underestimate the number of people that don't see voting as a responsibility.  A lot of people think politics is stupid and just doesn't matter to their lives.  It was not obvous to a lot of people that anything big was at stake and it still isn't obvious to them.  If people thought the same way about Trump that most of us do, they would have voted.  They just don't see it though.  

[Motown Bombers]

13 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Yes, the Democrats do need to win votes.  They don't need to beg.  They need better candidates that know how to reach voters.  I think people in this forum underestimate the number of people that don't see voting as a responsibility.  A lot of people think politics is stupid and just doesn't matter to their lives.  It was not obvous to a lot of people that anything big was at stake and it still isn't obvious to them.  If people thought the same way about Trump that most of us do, they would have voted.  They just don't see it though.  

Biden got the most votes ever in any single election in history. The Dems are fighting an information ecosystem controlled by the right wing and a segment of rat****ing leftists. Dems, particularly progressives, have this weird phobia of never being able to celebrate accomplishments. Biden gets a bill passed that caps insulin, allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices, made historic investments in green energy, and created millions of jobs and progressives publicly complained it wasn't good enough. The economy was good under Biden, but Dems kept running away from it and threw Biden under the bus. Republicans would never do that to Trump. 

Edited March 20 by Motown Bombers

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Biden got the most votes ever in any single election in history. 

That's because the stink of Trump was on everyone's minds due to Covid.  That is an example of non-voters getting desperate for a change.  Without Covid, I believe Trump would have won in 2020.    Unfortunately, grandpa Joe put them to sleep again the next four years. 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

That's because the stink of Trump was on everyone's minds due to Covid.  That is an example of non-voters getting desperate for a change.  Without Covid, I believe Trump would have won in 2020.    Unfortunately, grandpa Joe put them to sleep again the next four years. 

They said they wanted a boring president. They threw Biden overboard for a younger and more charismatic candidate and that didn't work either. Harris was fighting a media that was treating her differently than Trump and a social media environment run by right wing oligarchs. Add in Hamasholes and third party rat****ers and she was always going to be at a disadvantage. 

[oblong]

Has there been an analysis done on the 2024 election to see who voted, who didnt, who switched, etc.?

That's where we will find our answers.  Did people switch from Biden to Trump?  Did people vote for Biden in '20 then not vote?  Did people who didn't vote in '20 come out for Trump?  That kind of thing.

 

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, oblong said:

Has there been an analysis done on the 2024 election to see who voted, who didnt, who switched, etc.?

That's where we will find our answers.  Did people switch from Biden to Trump?  Did people vote for Biden in '20 then not vote?  Did people who didn't vote in '20 come out for Trump?  That kind of thing.

 

Harris got 6 million fewer votes than Biden and Trump got 3 million more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. There appears to be a combination of fewer Biden voters voting and probably some crossover. One big difference is Hispanic voters turned hard right. Also you voters went right. Harris actually did better with whites than Biden. 

[Tigermojo]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

Has there been an analysis done on the 2024 election to see who voted, who didnt, who switched, etc.?

That's where we will find our answers.  Did people switch from Biden to Trump?  Did people vote for Biden in '20 then not vote?  Did people who didn't vote in '20 come out for Trump?  That kind of thing.

 

Men who hate Trump but will not vote for a woman.

[Motown Bombers]

22 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Men who hate Trump but will not vote for a woman.

There was a bigger shift of women to Trump than men to Trump. White men moved slightly to Harris. Latino men made a big shift to Trump and black men made a smaller shift to Trump. There was also a huge swing to trump in low propensity voters. It goes against the narrative of people not being politically active. They heard the dog whistle from Trump. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

the incentives and alternatives were easily understood by all - there was no nuanced difference that needs to parsed between Trump and Harris

True, but believe it or not, not everyone saw that as all that different. Or, if they did, they saw him as a possible solution to the problem they have been told for 40-plus years Washington fundamentally is.

[chasfh]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

There was a bigger shift of women to Trump than men to Trump. White men moved slightly to Harris. Latino men made a big shift to Trump and black men made a smaller shift to Trump. There was also a huge swing to trump in low propensity voters. It goes against the narrative of people not being politically active. They heard the dog whistle from Trump. 

Is this a guess or do you have a link to a source? Honest question, not trying to be a smartass here. I want to see what you're seeing on it.

[Motown Bombers]

25 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Is this a guess or do you have a link to a source? Honest question, not trying to be a smartass here. I want to see what you're seeing on it.

It's based on CNN exit polls, but they stack up with other exit polls I have seen.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/politics/2020-2016-exit-polls-2024-dg/

[Tiger337]

9 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

It's based on CNN exit polls, but they stack up with other exit polls I have seen.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/politics/2020-2016-exit-polls-2024-dg/

One of the more interesting things is that first year voters were overwhelmingly in favor of Trump.  

[The Ronz]

Yep!

Every first time voter I knew voted for Trump.

Most of them were white females too.

[romad1]

47 minutes ago, The Ronz said:

Yep!

Every first time voter I knew voted for Trump.

Most of them were white females too.

Yes, we know, we know...Charlies Angels but with nazis. 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

One of the more interesting things is that first year voters were overwhelmingly in favor of Trump.  

lets hope once bitten twice shy.

[mtutiger]

9 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

There was a bigger shift of women to Trump than men to Trump. White men moved slightly to Harris. Latino men made a big shift to Trump and black men made a smaller shift to Trump. There was also a huge swing to trump in low propensity voters. It goes against the narrative of people not being politically active. They heard the dog whistle from Trump. 

This is all correct, but I still think we need to consider the context in that people were sour about inflation and the economy, and it remains the biggest reason he won. And he's ****ing up daily on that front.

It's important that Dems learn about what happened in 2024, but after that last eight years, I sometimes worry that we collectively spend way too much time analyzing the last battle versus preparing for the next one. 

Edited March 21 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

36 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I sometimes worry that we collectively spend way too much time analyzing the last battle versus preparing for the next one. 

yup

[mtutiger]

28 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yup

I would just add that so much of the analysis of the last election ignores some basic fundamentals... it was a really hard lift, Harris came a lot closer than she probably should have considering how people perceived the economy (ie. poorly). 

We fast forward to today.... Trump is moving fast and with force. It's intimidating, I almost think the speed is the point, to get us to a point of exasperation or learned helplessness. All of which serves his (and the GOP's) goals. But he's also underwater in popularity, he's never been viewed worse in terms of the economy. The pox that took down Biden and Harris, is now on him.... it doesn't seem like it, but he's *vulnerable*.... and the speed in which they are moving, disorienting as it is, maybe belies weakness. Like they know the window is narrow.

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I would just add that so much of the analysis of the last election ignores some basic fundamentals... it was a really hard lift, Harris came a lot closer than she probably should have considering how people perceived the economy (ie. poorly). 

We fast forward to today.... Trump is moving fast and with force. It's intimidating, I almost think the speed is the point, to get us to a point of exasperation or learned helplessness. All of which serves his (and the GOP's) goals. But he's also underwater in popularity, he's never been viewed worse in terms of the economy. The pox that took down Biden and Harris, is now on him.... it doesn't seem like it, but he's *vulnerable*.... and the speed in which they are moving, disorienting as it is, maybe belies weakness. Like they know the window is narrow.

but some of what he is doing is going to play well. Outside hard liberal circles - which is to say maybe 70% of the population - no-one is going to miss the department of education - people sense it's not a core function in a federal system and objectively the country's K-12 education has not done any better for its existence. This is the kind of thing where it's fine for the Dems to say they disagree but going into end-of-the-world histrionics about it when most of the public either doesn't care or disagrees isn't the best way to show the public you care about what they do.

Edited March 21 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

40 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

but some of what he is doing is going to play well. Outside hard liberal circles - which is to say maybe 70% of the population - no-one is going to miss the department of education - people sense it's not a core function in a federal system and objectively the country's K-12 education has not done any better for its existence. This is the kind of thing where it's fine for the Dems to say they disagree but going into end-of-the-world histrionics about it when most of the public either doesn't care or disagrees isn't the best way to show the public you care about what they do.

I really don't agree with the bolded, Fox News had a poll this week that suggests that going after the Department of Education is deeply unpopular (32-65)

I go back to my original point though... people vote on their pocket books and their economy. We are currently going backwards.... with Trump himself talking about tariffs with the kind of zeal that Sterling Hayden's character talked about the fluoridation of water in Dr. Strangelove. It won't go unnoticed.

The thing that plays well is immigration.... the rest of it is tenuous at best.

Edited March 21 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I really don't agree with the bolded, Fox News had a poll this week that suggests that going after the Department of Education is deeply unpopular (32-65)

but if you ask them if they approve of Trump reducing government you will get an equally if not more lopsided 'approve' so there is a built-in paradox around any question like that. Which ends up winning the day for the voter, the specific or the general? I tend to believe that the approval on the second proposition weighs more heavily than the disapproval on the first. Not to even ask how many people polled thought the question was about Trump cutting their local school board?

To me the abuse of process is the bigger issue here,  but Americans seem to understand so little about their government that those concerned with process are probably the minority. The MAGA certainly don't care about process. I certainly hope it's true that the moves at Education are unpopular enough to hurt him with his own supporters, but I'm not going to bank on it yet....

Edited March 21 by gehringer_2