bobrob2004 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #1 – Tarik Daniel Skubal Another season is upon us, another year of bad predictions. As always I love to see your expectations too. The big question with Tarik Skubal entering the 2024 season was if he could replicate his 2023 performance (2.80 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in 80 1/3 innings) over a full season of work. Not only did he replicate his performance, but he exceeded most everyone’s expectations, with a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and 18 wins, winning the American League Triple Crown for the first time since Shane Bieber* in 2020 (Justin Verlander did it over a full 162-game season with the Tigers in 2011). Skubal also won the Cy Young Award (first Tiger to win it since Max Scherzer in 2013). Tark Skubal throws a 4-season fastball (33.2 percent of the time), changeup (27.2 percent), sinker (20.5 percent) and slider (14.9 percent) with a knuckle curve that he uses exclusively against right-handed hitters. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 99 percentile on fastball run value, 93 percentile in off-speed run value, and 83 percentile in breaking run value, all in the “great” classification. Skubal also excels in most other areas, including a 2.72 xERA (94 percentile), .208 xBA (86 percentile), 31.9 percent whiff% (90 percentile), and a 33.9 percent hard-hit% (84 percentile). It’s amazing how the 28-year old was able to come so close to his 2023 numbers in 2024, despite a bigger workload and showing almost no signs of fatigue in the second half (2.41 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 in the first half and 2.37 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 in the second half). Here are some numbers over the last couple of years, along with his career totals: 2023: 32.9% K% | 4.5% BB% | .198 AVG | 2.00 FIP 2024: 30.3% K% | 4.6% BB% | .200 AVG | 2.49 FIP Career: 28.1% K% | 6.0% BB% | .220 AVG | 3.38 FIP Skubal, still under 30 years old, is right in the prime of his career. The consistency shows that he should easily be able to do it again in 2025, if not become even better and contend for another Cy Young Award. It hasn’t been this exciting to see a good, young, pitching performance for the Tigers since Velander and Scherzer about 10 years ago. The only disappointing this about all of this is that the Tigers failed to sign Skubal to a long-term deal during the off-season, increasing his likelihood of leaving as a free agent after the 2026 season. But we should enjoy watching him while he’s here in Detroit. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 198 IP | 14-9 W/L | 2.83 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 229 K | 42 BB Steamer – 196 IP | 13-9 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 228 K | 45 BB ZiPS DC – 198 IP | 15-8 W/L | 2.74 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 227 K | 39 BB ATC – 184 IP | 14-7 W/L | 2.88 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 213K | 39 BB THE BAT – 184 IP | 13-8 W/L | 2.91 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 215 K | 41 BB OOPSY – 200 IP | 16-8 W/L | 2.74 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 230 K | 46 BB RotoChamp – 189 IP | 14-8 W/L | 2.86 ERA | 1.01 WHIP | 219 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – 179 IP | 14-5 W/ L | 2.92 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 203 K | 41 BB ESPN – 194 IP | 16 W | 2.92 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 231 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 163 1/3 IP | 13-6 W/L | 2.92 ERA | 0.986 WHIP | 179 K | 38 BB 2024 Actual – 192 IP | 18-4 W/L | 2.39 ERA | 0.922 WHIP | 228 K | 25 BB 2025 Prediction – 198 2/3 IP | 17-6 W/L | 2.54 ERA | 0.921 WHIP | 244 K | 35 BB 1 1 Quote
Motor City Sonics Posted February 24 Posted February 24 (edited) I am very glad to know you're okay. I am going to say for Skubs - 110 IP 11-4 2.82 0.997 WHIP. Yes, I think an injury will happen at some point. Just not a catastrophic one. That's when Jobe steps in and makes the world forget about Paul Skenes. Edited February 24 by Motor City Sonics Quote
Tiger337 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 3 hours ago, theroundsquare said: what does jobe's gf look like Too young. His mom would be more relevant. Quote
RandyMarsh Posted February 25 Posted February 25 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Too young. His mom would be more relevant. Considering his Dad was a PGA Tour golfer good bet that she is hot since they almost always have hot wives. Quote
papalawrence Posted February 25 Posted February 25 2 hours ago, RandyMarsh said: Considering his Dad was a PGA Tour golfer good bet that she is hot since they almost always have hot wives. They were at his first game. Mom is attractive Quote
IdahoBert Posted February 25 Posted February 25 I remember watching games last season and all these guys had hot moms. Quote
Motor City Sonics Posted February 25 Posted February 25 18 hours ago, IdahoBert said: I remember watching games last season and all these guys had hot moms. I remember when the old guy on the Tigers, Miggy, was playing his last game and they showed his mom - and realizing that I am older than she is. Quote
Arlington Posted February 26 Posted February 26 5 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said: I remember when the old guy on the Tigers, Miggy, was playing his last game and they showed his mom - and realizing that I am older than she is. It's good you can still remember that. 1 Quote
Motor City Sonics Posted February 26 Posted February 26 14 hours ago, Arlington said: It's good you can still remember that. Oh yeah, it was a long time ago. We had this great player named Mike Campbell, but we called him Miguel Cabrera. He won a Triple Crown back in the olden days. Quote
bobrob2004 Posted February 26 Author Posted February 26 Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene Riley Greene had a breakout season in 2024, playing in over 100 games for the first time in his career, with 24 home runs, 74 RBI, and a 133 OPS+, becoming a well-deserved all-star for the first time. He’s still only 24 years old, so he may not even have peaked just yet. The most impressive area of improvement for Greene was his power. He had his highest slugging percentage (.479), isolated power (.217), and home run rate (4.1 percent) of his career. His ISO and wRC+ (135) ranked third in all of baseball among hitters under the age of 25, behind Bobby Witt, Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. His walk rate of 11 percent was second, slightly lower than Nolan Schaunel’s 11.2 percent, in all of baseball among hitters under 25. This is very impressive and hopefully he can be even better once he reaches his full potential in his prime years. One of the reasons his power improved in 2024 was simply because he hit the ball in the air a lot more. According to Baseball Savant, here were his batted ball stats over the last few years: 2022 – 56.8% GB% | 19.3% FB% | 22.4% LD% 2023 – 48.9% GB% | 21.8% FB% | 28.9% LD% 2024 – 43.6% GB% | 27.7% FB% | 25.4% LD% Increasing his flyball rate from 19.3 percent in 2022 to 27.7 percent in 2024 as well as decreasing his groundball rate of over 50 percent in 2022 to 43.6 percent in 2024 simply allowed him more opportunities to hit the ball out of the park. Another aspect of power is launch angle, and Greene improved his average launch angle from 6.6 degrees in 2023 to 12.2 degrees in 2024. Home run hitters typically average a launch angle of around 20 degrees; a launch angle between 25 to 35 degrees is the sweet spot for hitting a home run. As he continues to mature, I can easily see him hitting around 40 home runs in his prime years. Maybe even a similar type of hitter as Curtis Granderson. Riley Greene’s walk rate is above average, but his strikeout rate (26.7 percent) and stolen bases (4) are not impressive. However, those can be of little concern as long as the power and batting average are great. As long as Riley Greene can stay healthy, he is posed to continue to improve his power going into 2025 and beyond. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 562 AB | .268/.348/.457 | 22 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 158 K Steamer – 576 AB | .268/.348/.456 | 23 HR | 82 RBI | 7 SB | 68 BB | 158 K ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .268/.349/.458 | 23 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 162 K ATC – 533 AB | .265/.345/.454 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 62 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 530 AB | .260/.342/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 155 K OOPSY – 565 AB | .275/.349/.476 | 24 HR | 80 RBI | 8 SB | 62 BB | 164 K RotoChamp – 542 AB | .268/.346/.458 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 156 K CBS Sports – 473 AB | .275/.360/.499 | 24 HR | 69 RBI | 6 SB | 58 BB | 141 K ESPN – 550 AB | .260/.334/.464 | 24 HR | 71 RBI | 6 SB | 59 BB | 164 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K 2024 Actual – 512 AB | .262/.348/.479 | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 156 K 2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K 1 Quote
bobrob2004 Posted March 1 Author Posted March 1 Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #3 – Kerry William Carpenter Going into the 2024 season, one of the big questions for Kerry Carpenter was if he could repeat his breakout season of 2023. And the answer was a resounding, “YES!” After hitting .278/.340/.471 with a 122 OPS+ in 2023, Carpenter hit .284/.345/.587 with a 159 OPS+ in 2024, displaying even more power than ever before. However, due to injury, Carpenter missed over 2 months of the season and only appeared in 87 games but still managed 18 home runs, which was second most on the Tigers after Riley Greene’s 24. Another thing limiting Carpenter’s playing time was that he batted almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers, platooning mostly with Wenceel Perez by the end of the season. And for good reason, as Carpenter struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. Vs. RHP – 264 PA | .305/.363/.631 | 17 HR Vs. LHP – 32 PA | .107/.194/.214 | 1 HR Carpenter has the power of Miguel Cabrera against right-handed pitchers and the power of a typical pitcher when batting against left-handed pitchers. Manager A.J. Hinch will probably like to play the matchups again and platoon Carpenter with those numbers (although Perez wasn’t exactly lighting it up, hitting .209/292/.302 against left-handed pitching). If Carpenter can somehow get 500 plate appearances, he could easily approach 30 home runs (his 6.1 percent home run rate last year would have resulted in 31 home runs in 500 plate appearances). Although it may mean playing against more left-handed pitchers, which will hurt his overall numbers (if the Tigers had acquired another big bat, like Alex Bregman, it would be easier to sit Carpenter against left-handed pitchers). As far as other rates in 2025, Carpenter had a 25.3 percent strikeout rate, right in line with his 25.6 percent career strikeout rate. His 7.4 percent walk rate was slightly better than his career 6.9 percent walk rate. Most impressive might be his 13.2 percent extra base hit rate, which is right with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani’s 13.5 percent extra base hit rate, tied for best in baseball in 2024. Although Carpenter did have a smaller sample size and may not be able to repeat it if given more playing time. Kerry Carpenter is only entering his age 27 season and is on the verge of entering his prime years. However, he is a hard one to predict, given if he will be able to stay healthy, what his playing time is going to be, how much of his less than full season of work was luck based and how much he will continue to improve. One thing for certain, though, is that his power is very much real and he will likely have more than a few exciting at bats in 2025, like his game-winning home run in game two of the ALDS against the best closer in baseball last year, Emanual Clase. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 451 AB | .255/.317/.466 | 22 HR | 74 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 124 K Steamer – 450 AB | .255/.317/.467 | 23 HR | 71 RBI | 3 SB | 36 BB | 124 K ZiPS DC – 451 AB | .255/.317/.464 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 2 SB | 35 BB | 123 K ATC – 438 AB | .256/.319/.472 | 22 HR | 71 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 121 K THE BAT X – 434 AB | .250/.317/.453 | 20 HR | 64 RBI | 4 SB | 38 BB | 119 K OOPSY – 452 AB | .256/.315/.463 | 22 HR | 66 RBI | 4 SB | 34 BB | 123 K RotoChamp – 438 AB | .256/.325/.468 | 22 HR | 68 RBI | 3 SB | 35 BB | 120 K CBS Sports – 482 AB | .286/.349/.556 | 31 HR | 90 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 134 K ESPN – 435 AB | .271/.333/.529 | 27 HR | 77 RBI | 2 SB | 34 BB | 122 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 473 AB | .262/.330/.467 | 24 HR | 68 RBI | 7 SB | 39 BB | 118 K 2024 Actual – 264 AB | .284/.345/.587 | 18 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 22 BB | 75 K 2025 Prediction – 454 AB | .262/.325/.526 | 28 HR | 70 RBI | 1 SB | 36 BB | 125 K 1 Quote
IdahoBert Posted March 1 Posted March 1 On 2/26/2025 at 1:27 PM, bobrob2004 said: Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #2 – Riley Alan Greene Riley Greene had a breakout season in 2024, playing in over 100 games for the first time in his career, with 24 home runs, 74 RBI, and a 133 OPS+, becoming a well-deserved all-star for the first time. He’s still only 24 years old, so he may not even have peaked just yet. The most impressive area of improvement for Greene was his power. He had his highest slugging percentage (.479), isolated power (.217), and home run rate (4.1 percent) of his career. His ISO and wRC+ (135) ranked third in all of baseball among hitters under the age of 25, behind Bobby Witt, Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. His walk rate of 11 percent was second, slightly lower than Nolan Schaunel’s 11.2 percent, in all of baseball among hitters under 25. This is very impressive and hopefully he can be even better once he reaches his full potential in his prime years. One of the reasons his power improved in 2024 was simply because he hit the ball in the air a lot more. According to Baseball Savant, here were his batted ball stats over the last few years: 2022 – 56.8% GB% | 19.3% FB% | 22.4% LD% 2023 – 48.9% GB% | 21.8% FB% | 28.9% LD% 2024 – 43.6% GB% | 27.7% FB% | 25.4% LD% Increasing his flyball rate from 19.3 percent in 2022 to 27.7 percent in 2024 as well as decreasing his groundball rate of over 50 percent in 2022 to 43.6 percent in 2024 simply allowed him more opportunities to hit the ball out of the park. Another aspect of power is launch angle, and Greene improved his average launch angle from 6.6 degrees in 2023 to 12.2 degrees in 2024. Home run hitters typically average a launch angle of around 20 degrees; a launch angle between 25 to 35 degrees is the sweet spot for hitting a home run. As he continues to mature, I can easily see him hitting around 40 home runs in his prime years. Maybe even a similar type of hitter as Curtis Granderson. Riley Greene’s walk rate is above average, but his strikeout rate (26.7 percent) and stolen bases (4) are not impressive. However, those can be of little concern as long as the power and batting average are great. As long as Riley Greene can stay healthy, he is posed to continue to improve his power going into 2025 and beyond. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 562 AB | .268/.348/.457 | 22 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 158 K Steamer – 576 AB | .268/.348/.456 | 23 HR | 82 RBI | 7 SB | 68 BB | 158 K ZiPS DC – 564 AB | .268/.349/.458 | 23 HR | 80 RBI | 6 SB | 67 BB | 162 K ATC – 533 AB | .265/.345/.454 | 22 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 62 BB | 155 K THE BAT X – 530 AB | .260/.342/.443 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 155 K OOPSY – 565 AB | .275/.349/.476 | 24 HR | 80 RBI | 8 SB | 62 BB | 164 K RotoChamp – 542 AB | .268/.346/.458 | 22 HR | 76 RBI | 6 SB | 63 BB | 156 K CBS Sports – 473 AB | .275/.360/.499 | 24 HR | 69 RBI | 6 SB | 58 BB | 141 K ESPN – 550 AB | .260/.334/.464 | 24 HR | 71 RBI | 6 SB | 59 BB | 164 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 596 AB | .277/.339/.435 | 16 HR | 61 RBI | 16 SB | 56 BB | 172 K 2024 Actual – 512 AB | .262/.348/.479 | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 156 K 2025 Prediction – 536 AB | .284/.377/.526 | 29 HR | 84 RBI | 5 SB | 78 BB | 158 K This is really thoughtful thank you so much. Quote
Arlington Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) Great post. I found the general agreement amazingly uniform. The most notable outlier was CBS AB numbers which indicates they believe he will miss about 10 more games than the others. Still, CBS has his cumulative stats right were everyone else does. The difference in the highest and lowest BAs - 260 and 275 - is about 8 hits over 540 ABs. The most optimistic projection is seeing one more base hit every 68 ABs over the most pessimistic. Edit I was looking a Riley's projections. Edited March 2 by Arlington Quote
bobrob2004 Posted Monday at 08:09 PM Author Posted Monday at 08:09 PM Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #4 – Jack Rafe Flaherty When the Tigers acquired Jack Flaherty in 2024, they had hoped that pitching coach Chris Fetter could help fix the struggling former first round draft pick, who had a 4.99 ERA in 2023, including a 6.75 ERA after getting traded to the Baltimore Orioles midseason. Not only did Flaherty have a bounce back year, but he had his best year since 2019, his second year in the Big Leagues, with a 3.17 ERA in 162 innings. In fact, there are several similarities between his 2019 and 2024 season. 2019 – 196 1/3 IP | 2.75 ERA | 3.46 FIP | 29.9% K% | 7.1% BB% | 13.8% HR/FB% 2024 – 162 IP | 3.17 ERA | 3.48 FIP | 29.9% K% | 5.9% BB% | 15.5% HR/FB% Flaherty had a lower walk rate in 2024, but a higher homerun rate, which resulted in very similar FIP in 2019 and 2024. If Flaherty can improve on the home runs, his 2025 could not only be better than last year, but could be his best season yet. One noticeable change that Flaherty made in 2024 was that he completely abandoned his cutter in 2025. In 2024, he threw it 220 times while opponents batted .333 against it with a .571 SLG against. Therefore, it was a good idea to abandon it, as the numbers certainly show. One area for improvement is the sinker. While he doesn’t throw it a lot (2.3 percent), opponents absolutely hammered it in 2024. 2023 – 66 pitches | .286 BA against | .286 SLG against 2024 – 60 pitches | .600 BA against | 1.200 SLG against Flaherty also throws a 4-seam fastball (44.1 percent), slider (29 percent), knuckle curve (21.8 percent), and changeup (2.7 percent, exclusively against left-handed batters), so completely abandoning another pitch might not be such a bad idea again. The Tigers only had Flaherty for 106 2/3 innings in 2024, then he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline when it looked like the Tigers were going to miss the playoffs once again (but they made it anyway! Woo-hoo!). There was a noticeable slump in his numbers once he got to the Dodgers. 2024 DET – 106 2/3 IP | 2.95 ERA | 3.12 FIP | 32.0% K% | 4.6% BB% | 16.3% HR/FB% 2025 LAD – 55 1/3 IP | 3.58 ERA | 4.16 FIP | 26.1% K% | 8.1% BB% | 14.3% HR/FB% This difference could easily be chalked up to fatigue or small sample size. However, there is enough evidence to show that Chris Fetters does have a big impact. Now that Jack Flaherty is back with the Tigers and Fetters for the entire 2025 season (and hopefully the entire 2026 season too) can also be more proof that 2025 could be a career year for Flaherty (but he has to get those home runs under control). Flaherty is still under 30 years of age, so age regression shouldn’t be a factor just yet. Pairing a strong right-handed pitcher with the southpaw and Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal will be a great 1-2 punch for the playoffs that the Tigers were sorely lacking in 2024. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 164 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.80 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 178 K | 52 BB Steamer – 170 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.74 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 178 K | 53 BB ZiPS DC – 158 IP | 12-8 W/L | 3.86 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 177 K | 51 BB ATC – 158 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 171 K | 50 BB THE BAT – 158 IP | 10-10 W/L | 3.97 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 178 K | 52 BB OOPSY – 165 IP | 11-9 W/L | 3.68 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 179 K | 54 BB RotoChamp – 160 IP | 10-9 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 175 K | 51 BB CBS Sports – 147 IP | 10 W/L | 3.31 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 159 K | 37 BB ESPN – 165 IP | 11 W | 3.65 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 192 K | 43 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 154 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.27 ERA | 1.422 WHIP | 154 K | 67 BB 2024 Actual – 162 IP | 13-7 W/L | 3.17 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 194 K | 38 BB 2025 Prediction – 182 1/3 IP | 15-8 W/L | 3.41 ERA | 1.015 WHIP | 225 K | 36 BB 1 Quote
KL2 Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM On 2/24/2025 at 8:16 PM, RandyMarsh said: Considering his Dad was a PGA Tour golfer good bet that she is hot since they almost always have hot wives. Quote
bobrob2004 Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM Author Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #5 – Colten Thomas Keith 2024 was Colt Keith’s first year in the Major Leagues and it was…completely average. That’s not a bad thing for a young, 22-year old rookie, who hit .260/.309/.380 with 13 home runs and a 96 OPS+. Unfortunately, his defense was very much below average, with a -8 DRS and -8.7 UZR/150. This was enough cause for concern that prompted the Tigers to sign Gleyber Torres to take over second base and move Keith to first base for 2025 (despite having below average defense himself). Looking through Colt Keith’s splits, there isn’t much difference between his first half (.253/.309/.394) and second half numbers (.268/.310/.362). However, if you break it down monthly, there are highs and lows that are typical for any rookie (and even several veteran hitters too): APR/MAR – 99 PA | .154/.222/.165 | 0 HR MAY – 80 PA | .343/.388/.493 | 2 HR JUN – 84 PA | .220/.238/.329 | 2 HR JUL – 99 PA | .322/.404/.644 | 7 HR AUG – 111 PA | .264/.297/.330 | 1 HR SEPT – 83 PA | .273/.313/.351 | 1 HR Personally, I was ready to demote Keith to AAA after the first month of the season, but thank God I’m not the one in charge. Imagine having a full season of those July numbers! It’s too early in his career to know if Keith will always be this streaky of a hitter or if he will eventually become more consistent as he matures. In looking for any areas where Colt Keith could improve, one thing that stands out was how he hits against breaking pitches: Fastball – 271 PA | .291 AVG | .385 SLG | 4 HR Breaking – 157 PA | .228 AVG | .356 SLG | 3 HR Off-speed – 118 PA | .237 AVG | .407 SLG | 6 HR Kieth seems to provide most of his power against off-speed pitches. Again, it’s too early in his career to make any determination on how he will mature as a hitter, but it is interesting that he only hit .237 against off-speed pitches. This leads me to think that trading some batting average for more power might be in his future, but there is also no reason to believe that he can’t have both a high batting average and gain more power once he enters his prime. As for rate stats, Colt Keith had a 6.5 percent walk rate (11.6 percent in the minors) and a 19.8 percent strikeout rate (21.5 percent in the minors). The walk rate has room for improvement if his minor league rate is any indication, while his strikeout rate could increase as his power develops. Having a high strikeout rate is typical for a power hitter, although Keith is right around league average, 22.6 percent, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays there too. Basically, it’s just too early to tell. Keith also stole seven bases last year while only stealing 11 across three seasons in the minor leagues. If he can increase his on-base percentage and stolen base opportunities, I could see him stealing even more bases in 2025. We only have one year of data, and Keith is still only entering his age 23 season. He is still years off from entering his prime, which makes it especially difficult to predict how he will do in his sophomore season (I mean, they coined the term “sophomore slump” for a reason). Pitchers have more data on the type of hitter Keith is and will adjust. Now Keith needs to adjust as well. If all goes well, I could see a slight improvement in all of his numbers across the board. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 494 AB | .262/.324/.426 | 16 HR | 69 RBI | 4 SB | 45 BB | 116 K Steamer – 481 AB | .262/.326/.427 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 5 SB | 44 BB | 105 K ZiPS DC – 495 AB | .261/.323/.426 | 15 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB | 44 BB | 125 K ATC – 474 AB | .260/.319/.420 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 5 SB | 40 BB | 106 K THE BAT X – 475 AB | .252/.309/.397 | 13 HR | 56 RBI | 5 SB | 38 BB | 106 K OOPSY – 500 AB | .262/.315/.416 | 15 HR | 56 RBI | 5 SB | 39 BB | 116 K RotoChamp – 482 AB | .259/.329/.419 | 15 HR | 62 RBI | 4 SB | 41 BB | 111 K CBS Sports – 426 AB | .268/.324/.401 | 12 HR | 52 RBI | 7 SB | 33 BB | 96 K ESPN – 485 AB | .264/.327/.416 | 15 HR | 62 RBI | 5 SB | 45 BB | 106 K My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 467 AB | .236/.299/.375 | 14 HR | 47 RBI | 1 SB | 42 BB | 131 K 2024 Actual – 516 AB | .260/.309/.380 | 13 HR | 61 RBI | 7 SB | 36 BB | 110 K 2025 Prediction – 525 AB | .261/.316/.400 | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 10 SB | 41 BB | 120 K 1 Quote
bobrob2004 Posted 8 hours ago Author Posted 8 hours ago Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #6 – William Reese Olson Reese Olson became a surprise fixture in the starting rotation the last couple of years. In 2023, after sporting a 6.38 ERA in AAA, the Tigers called him up and he produced a 3.99 in 103 2/3 innings at the Big League level. Last year in 2024, Olson stayed with the Tigers all season long and lowered his ERA to 3.53 in 112 1/3 innings (he did miss some time due to a shoulder injury). Can he lower his ERA even further in 2025? According to Baseball Savant, Olson throws a slider, 4-seamer, changeup, sinker, and curveball. And there is definitely a pattern in how he attacks right-handed and left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, Olson uses a sinker while against left-handed hitters he uses the 4-seamer/curveball combination. Sinker – 371 pitches vs. RHB | 0 pitches vs. LHB 4-seamer – 39 pitches vs. RHB | 403 pitches vs. LHB Curveball – 18 pitches vs. RHB | 94 pitches vs. LHB His slider is his best pitch and he uses it about equally against both right-handed batters (249 pitches) and left-handed batters (266 pitches). Opponents only hit .143 against it in 112 plate appearances with a low .194 slugging percentage against. It’s also his most used pitch, throwing it 27.8 percent of the time. Overall, right-handed batters hit .220 against Olson with a .310 slugging against while left-handed batters hit .253 with a .380 slugging against. Olson improved in many of his stats in his second year in the Big Leagues: 2023 – 103 2/3 IP | 4.01 FIP | 24.4% K % | 7.8% BB% | .255 BABIP 2024 – 112 1/3 IP | 3.17 FIP | 21.7% K% | 7.1% BB% | .291 BABIP The .255 BABIP suggests a bit of good fortune, while .291 BABIP is right around league average. The lower walk rate is good to see and the lower strikeout rate is probably due to more scouting reports that hitters have against Olson. The biggest improvement is that he was able to generate 50.6 percent ground ball rate, which led to fewer home runs (13.5 percent HR/FB rate in 2023 to 6.9 percent HR/FB rate in 2024). I love to see a high ground ball rate with a pitcher as that significantly lowers the amount of damage that a hitter can do. As for 2025, Reese Olson is only entering his age 25 season. There can be several more adjustments that he can make that can make him an even better pitcher. If he can stay healthy all year, that would mean that he will also log in more innings than he has ever pitched before. So, I could see him faltering a bit at the end of the season due to fatigue (although the Tigers may limit his innings to keep him fresh for the post-season). Therefore, I could also see a drop in all of his stats because of this. But even if he keeps his stats similar as last year with more innings pitched, that’s a solid number three starter that most teams would be glad to have on their team (and a solid number seven starter on the Dodgers). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: FGDC – 134 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.90 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 124 K | 45 BB Steamer – 144 IP | 9-9 W/L | 3.87 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 132 K | 46 BB ZiPS DC – 125 IP | 6-7 W/L | 3.95 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 116 K | 44 BB ATC – 141 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.91 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 131 K | 45 BB THE BAT – 141 IP | 8-9 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 126 K | 45 BB OOPSY – 134 IP | 10-8 W/L | 3.70 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 126 K | 44 BB RotoChamp – 139 IP | 8-8 W/L | 3.88 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 128 K | 46 BB CBS Sports – 137 IP | 7-7 W/L | 3.28 ERA | 1.12 WHIP | 126 K | 40 BB ESPN – 151 IP | 10 W | 3.75 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 144 K | 44 BB My Prediction: 2024 Prediction – 129 1/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.322 WHIP | 130 K | 51 BB 2025 Actual – 112 1/3 IP | 4-8 W/L | 3.53 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 101 K | 33 BB 2025 Prediction – 144 1/3 IP | 8-10 W/L | 3.62 ERA | 1.240 WHIP | 120 K | 44 BB Quote
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