Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Predictions

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #12 – Matthew Gregory Vierling

Matt Vierling has played all over the field since he has been called up by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021.  He has at least one game played at every position except pitcher, catcher, and shortstop.  For the Tigers, he has mostly played rightfield and third base, which coincidently are two positions that are wide open at the moment.  He has also had 500+ plate appearances with the Tigers over the last two seasons, so he has basically been an everyday player.  Unfortunately, Vierling is currently on the injured list and will not be ready by opening day.  But once he’s healthy, he’ll likely resume the role of an everyday super utility player.

Matt Vierling had career highs in home runs (16), RBI (57), wRC+ (108) and WAR (2.6 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR) last year.  He was one of the most reliable hitters on the Tigers last year after Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.  His .166 ISO and 8.6 percent extra base rate were also career highs for the 27-year old, who is just entering his prime years.  He had a .309 xWOBA compared to his actual wOBA of .317, suggesting that luck wasn’t much of a factor.  Barring any setbacks due to injury, it looks like he should be able to build on these numbers in 2025.

Looking at some of his batted ball data over the last two seasons:

2023 – 48.5% GB% | 30.8% FB% | 20.7% LD% | 33.9% Pull% | 33.3% Cent% | 32.8% Oppo%

2024 – 42.1% GB% | 37.8% FB% | 20.1% LD% | 38.6% Pull% | 35.8% Cent% | 25.6% Oppo%

The increase in fly ball rate explains the increase in home runs.  While it would be nice to see him go the opposite way more often to maybe increase his batting average, he only hit one home run the opposite way.  When Vierling pulled the ball, he hit .390 with a .779 slugging percentage in 2024, so having him continue to pull the ball might be the better option. 

According to Baseball Savant, his squared-up rate (81 percentile), chase percentage (89 percentile) and whiff rate (78 percentile) were all above average.  Despite the good chase percentage and whiff rate, his strikeout rate was only slightly below league average at 21.3 percent and very similar to the 21.1 percent in 2023.  His walk rate decreased from 8.3 percent in 2023 to 7.2 percent in 2024, although most people will take the trade of walks for more power. 

Just like with Parker Meadows, it’s hard to predict just how his injury will affect his season and playing time.  He’s right at the stage of his career where he should have the best numbers of his career, but at the same time he’ll never be the kind of hitter that Riley Greene is (or will be).  I think it’s safe to say that he will be a slightly above-average hitter once again in 2025 when he is fully healthy, which anyone would take from a player who can play multiple positions. 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 424 AB | .254/.317/.395 | 11 HR | 46 RBI | 6 SB | 37 BB | 100 K

Steamer – 376 AB | .253/.317/.396 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 6 SB | 33 BB | 89 K

ZiPS DC – 425 AB | .254/.317/.394 | 10 HR | 44 RBI | 5 SB | 37 BB | 100 K

ATC – 413 AB | .253/.315/.399 | 11 HR | 45 RBI | 7 SB | 35 BB | 96 K

THE BAT X – 413 AB | .253/.314/.397 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 8 SB | 34 BB | 92 K

OOPSY – 425 AB | .251/.314/.386 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 7 SB | 37 BB | 96 K  

RotoChamp – 417 AB | .254/.315/.396 | 11 HR | 7 SB | 36 BB | 96 K

CBS Sports – 334 AB | .266/.327/.428 | 10 HR | 4 SB | 28 BB | 82 K

ESPN – 457 AB | .260/.320/.411 | 12 HR | 8 SB | 39 BB | 104 K

My Prediction:

2024 Prediction – N/A

2024 Actual – 518 AB | .257/.312/.423 | 16 HR | 57 RBI | 6 SB | 41 BB | 121 K

 

2025 Prediction – 422 AB | .258/.318/.427 | 13 HR | 47 RBI | 6 SB | 36 BB | 95 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #13 – Alexander Miller Cobb

The Tigers have just finalized the last two rotation spots; Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe will join Tark Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson in the starting rotation to start the 2025 season.  So, where does this leave Alex Cobb?  The Tigers signed Cobb to a 1-year, $15 million contract in the offseason to help bolster their starting rotation, which lacked depth at the end of the 2024 season.  However, Cobb only made three starts in 2024 and will start the season on the injured list.  I would be surprised, though, if the Tigers spent $15 million on someone who would just end up in the bullpen.  Even Kenta Maeda went a half a season in the rotation before being demoted to the bullpen, and Cobb has shown much better stats recently.

Since 2021, Alex Cobb has pitched 410 2/3 innings with a 3.75 ERA, 390 strikeouts, 116 walks with a 111 ERA+ and a 3.29 FIP.  He has had an ERA of under 4.00 in each of the last four seasons, has struck out more than nine per nine innings twice, and made one All-Star appearance.  In his last start of the 2024 season, he took a perfect game into the 7^th inning before allowing a base hit. 

Alex Cobb primarily throws a sinker, split finger, and knuckle curve with a very occasional four-seamer (which might just be a misclassified sinker).  He started throwing a slider in 2023 but abandoned it in his short 2024 season.  It’ll be interesting to see if he goes back to it in 2025.  He only threw his slider 5.1 percent of the time in 2023 and hitters hit .333 against it in 24 plate appearances.  He primarily uses his sinker/split finger combo to get hitters out on ground balls.

In 2023, Alex Cobb induced 57.6 percent ground balls, second most in baseball (min. 150 innings) with only his teammate, Logan Webb, having a higher rate (62.1 percent).  Cobb has a career ground ball rate of 54.6 percent and it has never been below 46 percent in any of his 13 years in the Majors.  Since he made his Major League debut in 2011, only Dallas Keuchel (57.6 percent), Marcus Stroman (55.9 percent), and Trevor Cahill (54.8 percent) have had a higher ground ball rate than Alex Cobb (min. 1000 innings). 

If you’ve read any of my other predictions for pitchers, you’ll know I love pitchers with high ground ball rates as it minimizes the damage they can do.  Add a high strikeout rate and it’s easy to see why he has had an ERA below 4.00 his last four years. 

2021 – 93 1/3 IP | 24.9% K% | 8.4% BB% | 8.2% HR/FB%

2022 – 149 2/3 IP | 23.9% K% | 6.8% BB% | 10.2% HR/FB%

2023 – 151 1/3 IP | 20.3% K% | 5.7% BB% | 18.3% HR/FB%

The walk rate is trending in the right direction, while the home runs are trending in the opposite direction.  If he can put together a walk rate as low as 6 percent with a low home run rate and maintain a 20 percent strikeout rate, he could have another good year in 2025.  At least Comerica Park is a stadium that can limit home runs. 

The biggest problem is his health.  His highest number of innings he has every pitched in a year was 179 1/3 in 2017.  He has only pitched over 100 innings twice since 2019.  Another drawback is his age; he’ll be entering his age-37 season in 2025.  This is an age where most pitchers are in their decline.  He did, however, make his first and only All-Star game at the age of 35, so maybe the normal aging curve doesn’t apply here, especially since he hasn’t accumulated many innings in his career.  Hopefully, he can get healthy and continue to generate ground balls and add depth to the Tigers starting rotation.  There’s also the Chris Fetter factor, who has improved most pitchers after coming to Detroit (just don’t ask Kenta Meada).    

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 95 IP | 5-6 W/L | 3.82 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 78 K | 29 BB

Steamer – 100 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.67 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 83 K | 28 BB

ZiPS DC – 90 IP | 4-5 W/L | 3.99 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 30 BB

ATC – 83 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.84 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 68 K | 23 BB

THE BAT – 83 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.26 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 63 K | 23 BB

OOPSY – 94 IP | 7-6 W/L | 3.81 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 83 K | 29 BB

RotoChamp – 87 IP | 5-5 W/L | 3.93 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 71 K | 26 BB

CBS Sports – 113 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.06 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 92 K | 25 BB 

ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 3.93 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 91 K | 31 BB

My Prediction:

2024 Prediction – N/A

2024 Actual – 16 1/3 IP | 2-1 W/L | 2.76 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 10 K | 3 BB

 

2025 Prediction – 101 IP | 6-6 W/L | 3.83 ERA | 1.317 WHIP | 85 K | 27 BB

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction - #14 – Trey Thomas Sweeney

The Tigers acquired Trey Sweeney at last year’s trade deadline when they sold Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Not only did they make the playoffs anyway, but Flaherty resigned with the Tigers, essentially getting Sweeney for a rental.  Sweeney was called up in mid-August and became the regular shortstop for the remainder of the season when Javier Baez was out due to injury.  He hit .218/.269/.373 with four home runs and an 81 wRC+ in 119 plate appearances.  He looks to start 2025 as the starting shortstop again with Baez getting plenty of playing time at third base to start the season.  Will Sweeney be able to stay at the Major League club, or will he struggle and get sent down to AAA?

Trey Sweeney’s stint in Toledo was brief, but man did he hit.

LAD AAA – 440 PA | .254/.334/.427 | 13 HR | 88 wRC+

DET AAA – 47 PA | .381/.447/.667 | 2 HR | 187 wRC+

DET MLB – 119 PA | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 81 wRC+

Of course, small sample sizes apply, but it may show that Sweeney has nothing left to prove in AAA and it’s sink or swim time at the Major League level.  Many experts are predicting that the 25-year old will struggle this year, which is typical for a rookie. 

One area I would like to see Sweeney improve on is his walk rate. He has shown to have a good walk rate in the minor leagues, but it was less than impressive at the Major League level.

2021 – 138 PA | 15.9% BB% | 22.5% K% | 25.0% HR/FB%

2022 – 508 PA | 13.0% BB% | 23.2% K% | 13.7% HR/FB%

2023 – 472 PA | 13.8% BB% | 19.1% K% | 9.3% HR/FB%

2024 (MiLB) – 487 PA | 10.1% BB% | 26.7% K% | 18.1% HR/FB%

2024 (MLB) – 119 PA | 5.9% BB% | 26.9% K% | 12.5% HR/FB%

Sweeney also showed some speed in the minor leagues.  In 2022, he stole 31 bases; in 2023 he stole 20 bases; and in 2024 he stole 20 bases (plus 2 more with the Tigers at the ML level).  If he can get his walk rate to 10 percent or above, combined with around 20 stolen bases, he could be a good candidate to hit at the top of the order along with Parker Meadows in the coming years.

Power numbers usually come later, and Trey Sweeney didn’t even show bad power numbers in his Major League time last year.  He had a .155 ISO with a 7.6 percent extra base hit rate.  He had a .183 ISO and a 9.4 percent extra base hit rate in AAA last year (LAD and DET combined).  These numbers are right around what Parker Meadows showed last year with the Tigers after spending some time in AAA.  It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that Sweeney can get it that high within the next few years.

It’s always hard to predict what a rookie will do.  Trey Sweeney has the Major League experience and has put up better than decent numbers in the minor leagues.  But at the same time, it is a big leap from AAA to MLB and some hitters take longer to adjust.  It’s best to be optimistic, but cautious.  I think his season will be similar to Colt Keith’s last year, just a lot of ups and downs as he is adjusting but finishing around an average wRC+.  Hopefully there won’t be too many downs that they have to send him to AAA again, but even so, it has helped other players before.  I’m excited to see what Sweeney will do this year, regardless. 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 341 AB | .224/.294/.363 | 9 HR | 39 RBI | 9 SB | 31 BB | 102 K

Steamer – 280 AB | .226/.296/.365 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 82 K

ZiPS DC – 342 AB | .222/.292/.361 | 10 HR | 40 RBI | 10 SB | 31 BB | 104 K

ATC – 309 AB | .217/.284/.354 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 8 SB | 27 BB | 92 K

THE BAT X – 310 AB | .214/.279/.352 | 8 HR | 33 RBI | 7 SB | 26 BB | 95 K

OOPSY – 342 AB | .222/.289/.369 | 10 HR | 37 RBI | 10 SB | 30 BB | 105 K  

RotoChamp – 320 AB | .219/.292/.359 | 9 HR | 8 SB | 28 BB | 97 K

CBS Sports – 371 AB | .243/.297/.407 | 13 HR | 12 SB | 27 BB | 98 K

ESPN – 421 AB | .219/.305/.361 | 12 HR | 16 SB | 49 BB | 119 K

My Prediction:

2024 Prediction – N/A

2024 Actual – 110 AB | .218/.269/.373 | 4 HR | 17 RBI | 2 SB | 7 BB | 32 K

 

2025 Prediction – 408 AB | .230/.301/.400 | 15 HR | 43 RBI | 15 SB | 39 BB | 123 K

[bobrob2004]

Bobrob’s 2025 Preseason Prediction #15 – Jackson William Jobe

Usually I only do 14 predictions, 5 starting pitchers and the 9 everyday hitters.  However, I decided to do a bonus one this year since the Tigers have 6 starting pitchers this year that will likely contribute a significant amount of innings due to at least one injury (same thing could be said about the lineup with the injuries, and the way A.J. Hinch plays matchups, the line is a bit more blurred on who is a “starter” and who is a bench player).  If Alex Cobb were healthy, it is likely that Jackson Jobe would start the year at AAA, but he has made the opening day roster and depending on how he does, might just stay in Detroit all year.  It will be interesting how Cobb will fit in the roster if everyone stays healthy and no one is struggling.  Would they send down Jobe if he has an ERA of under 3.00 with a lot of strikeouts and a low WHIP?

Jackson Jobe pitched two innings in September, allowing zero runs, one hit, one walk, and striking out two.  Due to injuries, Jobe was able to be on the post-season roster, and pitched another 1 2/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing three earned runs, five hits, no walks, and no strikeouts.  Of course, this is a very small sample, but at least it gave him a taste of the Major Leagues as he was expected to get called up to the MLB at some point in 2025.

According to Baseball Savant, Jobe threw a 4-seamer, cutter, changeup, and sweeper (slider?) in his brief time with the Tigers.  Reports say he has also added a sinker.  Here are the scouting grades according to MLB.com (on a scale of 20-80):

Fastball - 70

Slider – 70

Changeup – 60

Cutter – 60

Control – 55

Overall – 60

Control is Jackson’s Jobe’s biggest issue as his walk rate was pretty high in the minor leagues in 2024.

2022 – 77 1/3 IP | 3.84 ERA | 24.3 K% | 9.0 BB% | 18.4% HR/FB%

2023 – 64 IP | 2.81 ERA | 32.6% K% | 2.3% BB% | 16.4% HR/FB%

2024 – 91 2/3 IP | 2.36 ERA | 25.6% K% | 12.0% BB% | 4.1% HR/FB%

Jobe’s fastball typically sits around 95-97 MPH, but can get it up to 100 MPH at times (reminds me of Justin Verlander), so he should be able to have a high strikeout rate.  Jobe has never pitched over 100 innings in his professional career, so it will be interesting to see how he gets used as the season progresses.  I will not be surprised if they move him to the bullpen at some point to limit his innings, especially if they are in position to make the playoffs again and want to rest him so he can be ready to make a playoff start.

Just like with Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney and every other rookie, it’s hard to predict how Jobe will do with an extended stint in the Major Leagues.  Hitters will adjust as scouting reports make their way through the league and then Jobe will have to adjust.  Not to mention if his control is going to be a big problem.  Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus all have Jobe as a top five prospect heading into the 2025 season and is a favorite of winning the Rookie of the Year Award.  Regardless of what happens, I am very excited to see him pitch this year.  And with any of these predictions, rookie or veteran, no one knows exactly what will happen. 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

FGDC – 112 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.64 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 87 K | 42 BB

Steamer – 130 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.65 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 100 K | 49 BB

ZiPS DC – 94 IP | 4-5 W/L | 4.62 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 73 K | 35 BB

ATC – 106 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.46 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 87 K | 39 BB

THE BAT – 106 IP | 6-8 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 90 K | 35 BB

OOPSY – 112 IP | 5-5 W/L | 4.23 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | 98 K | 49 BB

RotoChamp – 108 IP | 5-6 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 88 K | 41 BB

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 110 IP | 7 W | 4.01 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 105 K | 42 BB

My Prediction:

2024 Prediction – N/A

2024 Actual – 12 1/3 IP | 1-1 W/L | 3.65 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 8 K | 4 BB

 

2025 Prediction – 133 2/3 IP | 7-9 W/L | 4.38 ERA | 1.399 WHIP | 146 K | 70 BB

This is the last prediction that I’m going to do this year, mainly because tomorrow is opening day.  I could easily do a prediction on more hitters as it’s hard to tell who will end up playing the most this year due to injuries and production.  Spencer Torkelson could be the everyday DH and hit 30 home runs again.  Manuel Margot, who looks to be the opening day centerfielder, could start out hot and gain more playing time even when Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling are healthy.  Jace Jung could still get the most innings at third base, even with starting the year at AAA.  At the same time, Zach McKinstry or Andy Ibanez could also end up as the everyday third baseman.  But I made my predictions, and I think at the end, this is what I think the lineup will look like:

CF Parker Meadows

2B Gleyber Torres

LF Riley Greene

DH Kerry Carpenter

1B Colt Keith

RF Matt Vierling

3B Javier Baez

C Jake Rogers

SS Trey Sweeney

Not to mention any mid-season trades (hopefully the Tigers will be buyers this year instead of sellers). 

Well, I guess there’s nothing left to do but say: GO TIGERS!!!