2025 Detroit Tigers General Discussion Thread

[chasfh]

The season is barely one-sixth over, but I think we can all agree that what Zach McKinstry is doing this season so far is nothing short of amazing. He qualified for a batting title his first and only time so far in his third big league season and ended up with 1.1 fWAR (Fangraphs). He was reduced to super utility status last season, his fourth, yet he still matched that 1.1 WAR. He is an everyday player once again, but already, he has 1.3 WAR so far. Just how unprecedented would his season be if he somehow maintained this pace?

Well, simple math tells us that Zach would end up with 7.8 WAR. I don't think anyone reasonably hopes that could happen, let alone expects it, and probably he himself least of all. But he doesn't have to end up with WAR that high to still have a relatively historic performance. Here's what I mean:

This is Zach McKnistry's fifth season. His prior high WAR is 1.1. How high would his WAR have to be to set a record for fifth-season WAR that's the highest versus his high WAR from the previous four seasons?

The current record holder is Tommie Agee. His highest WAR in his first four seasons was 0.0. His fifth season WAR was 6.4. That's a difference of ... (checks math) ... +6.4.

The next two highest are Darin Erstad, who had a +5.9 WAR bump in his third season (8.7 vs previous high of 2.8), and then our old buddy Cecil Fielder with a +5.8 bump (6.5 vs previous high of 0.7).

So if Zach could end up with 7.8 WAR, he would have a fifth season bump of +6.7, which would give him the record.

But wait: there's something else.

When Agee got his fifth season bump, he was only 23 years old, so he was still heading toward his peak—plus, he was a fifth-season rookie that year. When Erstad and Cecil had their fifth season bumps, they were both 26. That age puts them solidly in the middle of their peaks.

Zach is 30 this year—in fact, he turns 30 tomorrow. (Happy birthday, Zach McKinstry!) That's, like, practically a whole generation older than those other guys were, and well past a player's peak. Guys who are 30 don't just turn it up a big notch like that. It's basically unprecedented.

So, then, what is the record for fifth-season bump for someone who's 30? Good question. And here's your answer: Ed Lennox and Ducky Holmes.

Yeah, I don't know who they are, either. But Ed Lennox had 5.5 WAR in his age 30 season, his fifth season, and the best he'd had before that was 2.8. And Ducky (lol) clocked in at 3.7 WAR in his age-30 fifth season, versus his previous career high of 1.1. Each of these is +2.6 (rounded).

But the biggest bump for any over-30 player was Cy Seymour, a legitimately very good player who had 8.7 WAR season at age 32, versus a previous high of 4.6. That's a fifth-season bump of +4.1.

But here's the thing about those guys: they were all birth-of-baseball-era players. Cy's age 32 season came in 1905. Ducky's age 30 year was 1899, when there was only one 12-team league. And Lennox's age 30 season was in 1914—in the Federal League. The Federal League?! Was that even a major league? I mean, yeah, technically it is was, but ... I don't know. You tell me.

But even including the National League guys, they all played during an era when society was not geared to funneling all the best potential baseball talent into the majors. A lot of the best players actually toiled in the minors, like the Pacific League and the American Association. Aggregating all the best players into one league was a hit-and-miss proposition back then, meaning the talent level they were playing against was probably not even the best in the country that it could be. So it would have been far more likely that a guy who's 30, or 32, could have his best season at that age, and by a long shot, in a way you just don't see today.

So here's the bottom line:

If Zach McKinstry can manage to end up with a 3.8 WAR or better, he will have the highest age-30 fifth-season bump in history. And if he can manage to end up with 5.3 WAR, it will be the the greatest ever fifth-season bump for any player age 30 or over in history. And he will have done so in much playing in tougher circumstances against highly-optimized competition that the other three age 30-plus players did not experience.

Oh, and by the way: How's Carlos Guzman doing these days?

 

 

[papalawrence]

9 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

The terminology refers to the minimum. You remove a guy or not any time after the minimum has run, but not before. The idea to enforce a minimum is so teams don't play roster games trying to stash someone who isn't really injured or other abuses. The relatively long minimum means you aren't going to put the guy on the list unless you are pretty sure you really can't use him for a couple of weeks. The only shorter period allowed is the relatively recent rule for concussions. You get a 7 day minimum there but entering and leaving concussion protocol has its own separate set of rules.

Thanks

[Tiger337]

30 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The season is barely one-sixth over, but I think we can all agree that what Zach McKinstry is doing this season so far is nothing short of amazing. He qualified for a batting title his first and only time so far in his third big league season and ended up with 1.1 fWAR (Fangraphs). He was reduced to super utility status last season, his fourth, yet he still matched that 1.1 WAR. He is an everyday player once again, but already, he has 1.3 WAR so far. Just how unprecedented would his season be if he somehow maintained this pace?

Well, simple math tells us that Zach would end up with 7.8 WAR. I don't think anyone reasonably hopes that could happen, let alone expects it, and probably he himself least of all. But he doesn't have to end up with WAR that high to still have a relatively historic performance. Here's what I mean:

This is Zach McKnistry's fifth season. His prior high WAR is 1.1. How high would his WAR have to be to set a record for fifth-season WAR that's the highest versus his high WAR from the previous four seasons?

The current record holder is Tommie Agee. His highest WAR in his first four seasons was 0.0. His fifth season WAR was 6.4. That's a difference of ... (checks math) ... +6.4.

The next two highest are Darin Erstad, who had a +5.9 WAR bump in his third season (8.7 vs previous high of 2.8), and then our old buddy Cecil Fielder with a +5.8 bump (6.5 vs previous high of 0.7).

So if Zach could end up with 7.8 WAR, he would have a fifth season bump of +6.7, which would give him the record.

But wait: there's something else.

When Agee got his fifth season bump, he was only 23 years old, so he was still heading toward his peak—plus, he was a fifth-season rookie that year. When Erstad and Cecil had their fifth season bumps, they were both 26. That age puts them solidly in the middle of their peaks.

Zach is 30 this year—in fact, he turns 30 tomorrow. (Happy birthday, Zach McKinstry!) That's, like, practically a whole generation older than those other guys were, and well past a player's peak. Guys who are 30 don't just turn it up a big notch like that. It's basically unprecedented.

So, then, what is the record for fifth-season bump for someone who's 30? Good question. And here's your answer: Ed Lennox and Ducky Holmes.

Yeah, I don't know who they are, either. But Ed Lennox had 5.5 WAR in his age 30 season, his fifth season, and the best he'd had before that was 2.8. And Ducky (lol) clocked in at 3.7 WAR in his age-30 fifth season, versus his previous career high of 1.1. Each of these is +2.6 (rounded).

But the biggest bump for any over-30 player was Cy Seymour, a legitimately very good player who had 8.7 WAR season at age 32, versus a previous high of 4.6. That's a fifth-season bump of +4.1.

But here's the thing about those guys: they were all birth-of-baseball-era players. Cy's age 32 season came in 1905. Ducky's age 30 year was 1899, when there was only one 12-team league. And Lennox's age 30 season was in 1914—in the Federal League. The Federal League?! Was that even a major league? I mean, yeah, technically it is was, but ... I don't know. You tell me.

But even including the National League guys, they all played during an era when society was not geared to funneling all the best potential baseball talent into the majors. A lot of the best players actually toiled in the minors, like the Pacific League and the American Association. Aggregating all the best players into one league was a hit-and-miss proposition back then, meaning the talent level they were playing against was probably not even the best in the country that it could be. So it would have been far more likely that a guy who's 30, or 32, could have his best season at that age, and by a long shot, in a way you just don't see today.

So here's the bottom line:

If Zach McKinstry can manage to end up with a 3.8 WAR or better, he will have the highest age-30 fifth-season bump in history. And if he can manage to end up with 5.3 WAR, it will be the the greatest ever fifth-season bump for any player age 30 or over in history. And he will have done so in much playing in tougher circumstances against highly-optimized competition that the other three age 30-plus players did not experience.

Oh, and by the way: How's Carlos Guzman doing these days?

 

 

My favorite one year wonder is Zoilo Versalles - A Twins shortstop who never had a WAR greater than 2.5 until he had 7.2 WAR and won the MVP in 1965.  The next year, he had 1.3 WAR and then -1.6 WAR.  Overall, he played 12 years with 12.6 WAR.  He accumulated 57% of his career WAR in that one season.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/versazo01.shtml

Edited 12 hours ago by Tiger337

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

My favorite one year wonder is Zoilo Versalles - A utility infielder who never had a WAR greater than 2.5 until he had 7.2 WAR and won the MVP in 1965.  The next year, he had 1.3 WAR and then -1.6 WAR.  Overall, he played 12 years with 12.6 WAR.  He accumulated 57% of his career WAR in that one season.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/versazo01.shtml

And not the only Zoilo in big league history. Remember this guy?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/almonzo01.shtml

If you do, you're one up on me, because I sure don't.

[Tiger337]

Just now, chasfh said:

And not the only Zoilo in big league history. Remember this guy?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/almonzo01.shtml

If you do, you're one up on me, because I sure don't.

I don't remember him.  If he played 30 years earlier, I probably would have.  

[Edman85]

Carlos Guzman hit 6-year free agency after 2023, and has been bouncing between AA and AAA for the Mets since last year.

[IdahoBert]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

My favorite one year wonder is Zoilo Versalles - A Twins shortstop who never had a WAR greater than 2.5 until he had 7.2 WAR and won the MVP in 1965.  The next year, he had 1.3 WAR and then -1.6 WAR.  Overall, he played 12 years with 12.6 WAR.  He accumulated 57% of his career WAR in that one season.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/versazo01.shtml

I remember him. I think I had one of those back of the cereal box baseball cards which you cut out with a pair of scissors that showcased exactly that year. I know I had one of Harmon Killabrew too. 

[Tenacious D]

If anyone would have said that Zach would put up a 2.0 WAR before the season, we’d have been understandably skeptical.

[Sports_Freak]

5 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

If anyone would have said that Zach would put up a 2.0 WAR before the season, we’d have been understandably skeptical.

I was thinking about his hot April. How perfect for a team with injured outfielders. He plays a solid defense with an above average arm, runs the bases very well and seems to have a very good eye. Some of those pitches he takes for balls look like borderline strikes. And with his good OBP? He extends innings and turns the lineup over. A case could be made that he's been the April MVP of this team.

[Graterol]

So assuming Meadows and Vierling come back and nobody else gets hurt (big if I know), Jung is the obvious one to go down. But probably Keith as well? Don’t think we would keep him up over Ibanez or Malloy if it means he doesn’t get consistent at bats.

Would Cobb take Maedas spot? And we go with 6 starters to limit Jobe? Again likely to see some injuries but tough to drop any of the starters now.

Any ETA on Vierling or Cobb? Seems like they are closer but couldn’t find any updates?

[Tigermojo]

Just now, Graterol said:

So assuming Meadows and Vierling come back and nobody else gets hurt (big if I know), Jung is the obvious one to go down. But probably Keith as well? Don’t think we would keep him up over Ibanez or Malloy if it means he doesn’t get consistent at bats.

Would Cobb take Maedas spot? And we go with 6 starters to limit Jobe? Again likely to see some injuries but tough to drop any of the starters now.

Any ETA on Vierling or Cobb? Seems like they are closer but couldn’t find any updates?

May for Vierling and Cobb. Vierling had an MRI to determine if he's fit for a rehab assignment today.

[Graterol]

14 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

May for Vierling and Cobb. Vierling had an MRI to determine if he's fit for a rehab assignment today.

Thanks for that.

Guessing Vierling plays mainly CF with McKininsty/Ibanez at 3rd. 

[papalawrence]

I've been impressed with Jung's d at 3rd. Just has to hit now