Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[chasfh]

52 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

What I fear is that is has been the Tiger's team management actions are the 'unknown' forcing function. Actually I would have been more accurate to maybe use 'exogenous' rather than 'unknown' in the earlier post - because I meant to indicate something coming at the hitters from the 'outside' of their own initiative that was depressing their ability to produce. Not to get any BVDs too bunched, it's just a fear. And at this point, if they come out of the gate hitting poorly again, it doesn't necessarily support or refute the theory since it looks like it's going to be mostly the same cast.

When you refer to "Tiger's team management", whom do you mean? There are a lot of layers at hand. Can you give me an example of an exogenous forcing function in this context? I'm unclear on what kind of functions you might be referring to and I want to reply to your precise meaning, so I don't want to make any guesses. Do you believe that hitters do better when they rely on their own initiative rather than relying on whatever management or forcing functions you do mean?

[RandyMarsh]

4 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I always thought that Al Avila knew exactly what to do, and tried to do it, but was terrible at actually doing it.

Yes, I don't think Al's strategy was bad per se but the execution and results certainly were. 

I also don't think he planned for the rebuild to take as long as it has, like when we initially started it in 2017 I think he thought we'd be competing by atleast 21 and possibly earlier but unfortunately none of the players he acquired in the trades amounted to much and none of his draft picks from the previous years and insuing ones did either. 

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

When you refer to "Tiger's team management", whom do you mean? There are a lot of layers at hand. Can you give me an example of an exogenous forcing function in this context? I'm unclear on what kind of functions you might be referring to and I want to reply to your precise meaning, so I don't want to make any guesses. Do you believe that hitters do better when they rely on their own initiative rather than relying on whatever management or forcing functions you do mean?

lets not make it  too complex. The simple question is whether the Tigers net actions with the ML team - whether that be instruction, data presentation, pregame agenda emphasis, workout schedule, batting practice methods - whatever, singly or in composite, had an overall result of lowering the team offensive output to a level below what it might otherwise have been had they been doing nothing (our null hypothesis). Of course it's a black box function because that is all the numbers give you -  an inference that makes you suspect something, but not any view of what the possible mechanism may have been.

To simplify the analogy, if you watch someone flip a coin and heads is hitting 80% of the time, you suspect some input is taking place that you aren't seeing. But the simple existence of a statistical result that tells you threre is a probability something may be wrong gives you zero insight beyond that into what it might be - or even if you are simply (un?)lucky enough to be witnessing a set of improbable yet still randomevents - i.e. a whole bunch of hitters having bad years who are actually having it happen to them for no particular reason.

[Tiger337]

Position players who were drafted or originally signed by the Tigers since 1978 who had 5+ WAR for the Tigers:

20+ WAR

Kirk Gibson

Travis Fryman

Bobby Higginson

Curtis Grandersion

10-19 WAR

Brandon Inge

Alex Avila

Tony Clark

5-9 WAR

Nick Castellanos

Omar Infante

Ramon Santiago

Milt Cuyler

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-batting-season-finder.cgi?request=1&match=player_season_combined&order_by_asc=0&order_by=b_war&year_min=1980&year_max=2022&comp_type=reg&team_id=DET&exactness=anymarked&games_min_max=min&minpasVal=502&mingamesVal=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&weight_min=0&weight_max=500&location=pob&locationMatch=is&date_type=dob&date_comp=%3D&month_val=0&day_val=0&year_val=0&year_debut_min=1978&num_franchises_comp=gt&all_stars_comp=gt

 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Tiger337

[casimir]

15 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

I always thought that Al Avila knew exactly what to do, and tried to do it, but was terrible at actually doing it.

That's the story of my athletic life.

[casimir]

36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Position players who were drafted or originally signed by the Tigers since 1978 who had 5+ WAR for the Tigers:

20+ WAR

Kirk Gibson

Travis Fryman

Bobby Higginson

Curtis Grandersion

10-19 WAR

Brandon Inge

Alex Avila

Tony Clark

5-9 WAR

Nick Castellanos

Omar Infante

Ramon Santiago

Milt Cuyler

 

Granderson CF

Higginson RF

Fryman 3B

Gibson LF

Castellanos DH

Clark 1B

Avila C

Infante SS

Santiago 2B

Bench of Inge (C) and Cuyler (OF) needs an IF.  Any way to trade Simon back for Suarez and put him at SS, bump Infante to 2B and Santiago to the bench?

Edited February 4, 2023 by casimir

[Tiger337]

The next best infielder is Scott Lingstone.  You could put him at third base, move Fryman to shortstop and Santiago to the bench.  

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Position players who were drafted or originally signed by the Tigers since 1978 who had 5+ WAR for the Tigers:

20+ WAR

Kirk Gibson

Travis Fryman

Bobby Higginson

Curtis Grandersion

10-19 WAR

Brandon Inge

Alex Avila

Tony Clark

5-9 WAR

Nick Castellanos

Omar Infante

Ramon Santiago

Milt Cuyler

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-batting-season-finder.cgi?request=1&match=player_season_combined&order_by_asc=0&order_by=b_war&year_min=1980&year_max=2022&comp_type=reg&team_id=DET&exactness=anymarked&games_min_max=min&minpasVal=502&mingamesVal=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&weight_min=0&weight_max=500&location=pob&locationMatch=is&date_type=dob&date_comp=%3D&month_val=0&day_val=0&year_val=0&year_debut_min=1978&num_franchises_comp=gt&all_stars_comp=gt

 

Reminded of what a disappointment Nick was while playing with us.  He never should have left the friendly confines of Cincinnati’s stadium.

[Jim Cowan]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The next best infielder is Scott Lingstone.  You could put him at third base, move Fryman to shortstop and Santiago to the bench.  

That is so sad.

[Tiger337]

When you bring Scott Livingstone into a conversation about player development successes in the past 45 years, you know something is wrong.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by Tiger337

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

When you bring Scott Livingstone into a conversation about player development successes in the past 45 years, you know something is wrong.  

Good grief, 45 years.  That’s incredible.

[Jim Cowan]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

When you bring Scott Livingstone into a conversation about player development successes in the past 45 years, you know something is wrong.  

By the way, you don't get to count Gibson!  He is from the Bill Lajoie hallowed era of the late 70's.  The time period is 38 years and the headliners are Fryman, Higginson, and Granderson.

It's sad that Infante and Santiago are the best home grown middle infielders of that entire time.

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

By the way, you don't get to count Gibson!  He is from the Bill Lajoie hallowed era of the late 70's.  The time period is 38 years and the headliners are Fryman, Higginson, and Granderson.

 

I am not sure why I included Gibson.  You are right that he belongs in the 74-78 group with Parrish, Whitaker, Trammell, Morris and Petry.  What an amazing haul!  Howard Johnsion was in 79 and he should have been part of that group too.  That was the period where I was falling in love with the game and I though it was always going to be that easy.

[Jim Cowan]

13 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I am not sure why I included Gibson.  You are right that he belongs in the 74-78 group with Parrish, Whitaker, Trammell, Morris and Petry.  What an amazing haul!  Howard Johnsion was in 79 and he should have been part of that group too.  That was the period where I was falling in love with the game and I though it was always going to be that easy.

Howard Johnson was an exciting prospect for sure, after '84 I wanted to trade Herndon and put HoJo in left, but I think that Sparky just plain did not like him at all because of his bad defense at third.

[Jim Cowan]

13 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

You are right that he belongs in the 74-78 group with Parrish, Whitaker, Trammell, Morris and Petry.  What an amazing haul!  

Steve Kemp was in that group too...without Kemp there is no Chester Lemon.

[Tiger337]

7 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Steve Kemp was in that group too...without Kemp there is no Chester Lemon.

Jason Thompson was another one in that group and I hated the Al Cowens trade.  

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

Jason Thompson was another one in that group and I hated the Al Cowens trade.  

That trade devastated my 7th grade self.  Got to meet him as an adult through my son’s travel baseball stuff.  You know that expression that you should never meet your heroes because they’ll disappoint you?  Spot on.

[Jim Cowan]

10 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

That trade devastated my 7th grade self.  Got to meet him as an adult through my son’s travel baseball stuff.  You know that expression that you should never meet your heroes because they’ll disappoint you?  Spot on.

Need to hear more!

[Tiger337]

I imagine my hero from that period Ron Leflore would have disappointed.  Not Mark Fidrych though.  Long after he retired, he once gave a talk during a youth baseball training session.  I met him briefly afterward.  He was exactly as I expected the whole time - humble and flakey.  

[Stanley70]

Soon after Sparky arrived he decided he didn't like Ron Leflore either and traded him for Dan Shatzeder. I always hated that trade, and Shatzeder as a result. Sparky was right though, Leflore was out of baseball a couple of years later while DS somehow lasted 15 years in the majors, despite not being very good in any of them.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Howard Johnson was an exciting prospect for sure, after '84 I wanted to trade Herndon and put HoJo in left, but I think that Sparky just plain did not like him at all because of his bad defense at third.

Isn't the received wisdom that Sparky disliked HoJo as much or more for personal -as in off the field reasons?

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Jason Thompson was another one in that group and I hated the Al Cowens trade.  

Trade was good for Jason at the time though IIRC. The Tigers were really overloaded with LHH and were thus seeing a lot of LHP. When Jason went to the Pirates it was a more right handed team and I have to think that helped his results.

Edited February 5, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Trade was good for Jason at the time though IIRC. The Tigers were really overloaded with LHH and were thus seeing a lot of LHP. When Jason went to the Pirates it was a more right handed team and I have to think that helped his results.

Sounds like it was a good opportunity for a platoon, something that Anderson did often.  

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, Stanley70 said:

Soon after Sparky arrived he decided he didn't like Ron Leflore either and traded him for Dan Shatzeder. I always hated that trade, and Shatzeder as a result. Sparky was right though, Leflore was out of baseball a couple of years later while DS somehow lasted 15 years in the majors, despite not being very good in any of them.

Sparky phoned Dick Williams, who was managing the Expos, to warn him about what he was in for...chronic lateness among other things.

[CMRivdogs]

2 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Howard Johnson was an exciting prospect for sure, after '84 I wanted to trade Herndon and put HoJo in left, but I think that Sparky just plain did not like him at all because of his bad defense at third.

His first full season with Detroit he used an outfielders glove at third. The biggest knock on Hojo was he couldn't handle pressure. Sparky believed and so did Davy Johnson with the Mets. The teams always seemed to have someone better coming up to take his place.

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Howard-Johnson/