gehringer_2 Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Edman85 said: I'm trying to figure out how probability and on-field production are mutually exclusive, when teams have 10-100 person analytics departments whose primary goal is to quantify the probability of on-field production. Then again, you can put 100 blind artists in a room with an elephant and you still won't get a painting of an elephant. There are still big uncertainties with predicting whether a MiLB hitter is going to succeed in the Majors because some of the relevant variables, whatever they are, remain unknown and thus hidden. I think this is where there has been a big divergence between pitching and hitting. I think teams are getting better at being able to measure and predict pitchers - but then the limitation there is that injury injects so much noise into success projection for pitchers that you still get poor levels of certainty, it's just for different reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Then again, you can put 100 blind artists in a room with an elephant and you still won't get a painting of an elephant. There are still big uncertainties with predicting whether a MiLB hitter is going to succeed in the Majors because some of the relevant variables, whatever they are, remain unknown and thus hidden. I think this is where there has been a big divergence between pitching and hitting. I think teams are getting better at being able to measure and predict pitchers - but then the limitation there is that injury injects so much noise into success projection for pitchers that you still get poor levels of certainty, it's just for different reasons. There are more failure stories than success stories though because the MLB is hard. If you keep thinking every minor leaguer with an .800 OPS is going to have success in the majors you are going to experience a lot of disappointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 You don't know until you know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 25, 2023 Author Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: There are more failure stories than success stories though because the MLB is hard. If you keep thinking every minor leaguer with an .800 OPS is going to have success in the majors you are going to experience a lot of disappointment. Hope is a dangerous thing, my friend..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Shinzaki said: You don't know until you know I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Toledo L 6-5 Malloy 0/4 Keith 1/5 2B Leonard 2/2 2B BB SF Dingler 0/4 K Wentz 5IP 4ER 5K 2BB Erie W 12-10 Cruz 0/2 3BB Bigbie 2/4 BB K Jung 3/5 HR 2B 3RBI K Serretti 1/4 3K BB WM L 4-3 Gold 1/5 2B Allen 2/3 BB Pacheco 1/4 K Jobe 6IP 3H 6K ER Lakeland W 3-2 Clark 1/4 RBI Anderson 1/3 BB 2K Briceno 1/4 K McGonigle 2/4 2B Campbell 1/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Jung's power and numbers in general have been really good this year but it doesnt seem to have translated in the scouting views as it seems like most if not all haven't changed their views on him at all this year in terms of his grade or ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Jung's power and numbers in general have been really good this year but it doesnt seem to have translated in the scouting views as it seems like most if not all haven't changed their views on him at all this year in terms of his grade or ranking. Yes, It seems JJung gets a bit overlooked with CKeith on board - but he is looking more & more legit as an offensive player. His defense seems to be limited, but if he can play decent at 2B - that might be all it takes 'if' he is a plus offensive player. Edited August 25, 2023 by alex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said: Jung's power and numbers in general have been really good this year but it doesnt seem to have translated in the scouting views as it seems like most if not all haven't changed their views on him at all this year in terms of his grade or ranking. Probably a case where he is just now seeing his performance rise to where his grade and rankings were set. Put another way, he's been on most of the Top 100 lists for a while now, and he's just now starting to perform like one. Edited August 25, 2023 by mtutiger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gilmore Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 I am glad to see Jung show more production, but also wonder if he would be a good trade candidate, assuming he continues to show power. A trade for a good young LH catcher? Might not be enough on his own, but I also think we have enough 2Bs in the system to not miss him that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Jung is going to be a Top 100 guy over the offseason and is performing well at AA... If he has a strong spring do you throw him on the Opening Day Roster and see if you can't catch lightning in a bottle and get a draft pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Man, just look at all those actual prospects in the system now. Each level currently has 1-3 guys I can see making a big league roster at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Jung is going to be a Top 100 guy over the offseason and is performing well at AA... If he has a strong spring do you throw him on the Opening Day Roster and see if you can't catch lightning in a bottle and get a draft pick? They get 3 years per player, and can only get one pick per year; so I'd break it up a little. Edited August 25, 2023 by Cruzer1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Edman85 said: Jung is going to be a Top 100 guy over the offseason and is performing well at AA... If he has a strong spring do you throw him on the Opening Day Roster and see if you can't catch lightning in a bottle and get a draft pick? I wouldn't be shocked if Keith and him both make the roster. At the end of the day if he struggles you can send him down to AAA but if you wait and then he does really well you get nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalTiger Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Defensive limitations on Keith Mallory Jung And Carpenter might lead to trades or extended minor league stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Keith said nice things about the Tigers within. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, Edman85 said: Keith said nice things about the Tigers within. are dogs and cats sleeping together? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 "I talked to multiple people(scouts) that have watched Jobe that told me he has the best stuff from any starting pitcher they have watched this year or last year." Also liked how he said that he believes that Jobe will end up being worthy of his draft slot, he said that we may look back and regret passing on certain guys but in general Jobe will end up being worth what we gave him and where we picked him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 A ton of mixed messaging across the system under Avila, made Player Dev tough... Hearing a lot better things now between Garko and Harris. Frankly, this tracks. Even last year, the system showed a lot of signs. This year has been a great year on the system, IMO. More players emerging than fading. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 Toledo up big on Wenceel having 2 2B and a HR, Keith with a 2B and HR as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted August 26, 2023 Share Posted August 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: The International League this year is ridiculous. You look at those Toledo numbers and assume they would be at the top of the IL . Instead they are middle of the pack. Juiced ball? Robo umps? Lousy pitching? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 hours ago, SeattleMike said: The International League this year is ridiculous. You look at those Toledo numbers and assume they would be at the top of the IL . Instead they are middle of the pack. Juiced ball? Robo umps? Lousy pitching? I think we're seeing a trickle down effect of the majors carrying 14 pitchers, and 1 extra player in their rosters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 7 hours ago, Cruzer1 said: I think we're seeing a trickle down effect of the majors carrying 14 pitchers, and 1 extra player in their rosters. I thought there was a maximum of 13 pitchers on the active MLB roster? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 If you put 1000 monkeys at 1000 laptops...eventually you'll have 1000 laptops covered with monkey turds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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