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Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)


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14 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I'll echo what @microline133 said, but also point out there's room for him in the rotation if they really wanted him there.

Manning, Flores, Montero, Hurter, Sammons? 

Have no idea what they think Sammons' value is but I'd guess one of those guys will be out of that rotation soon enough that Madden can be promoted.

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32 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I'll echo what @microline133 said, but also point out there's room for him in the rotation if they really wanted him there.

I'll elaborate a bit....

Teams are really good at telling you what they think of prospects if you are willing to listen. When they conduct minor league roster construction to start a season, they place their "priority" prospects first and then place everyone else around them. Guys they view highly aren't squeezed out of a spot unless there are somehow more "priority" guys at a position than they can fit on a roster. 

That's not the case here. After 30+ starts at Double-A, if Madden was a "priority" starting pitcher prospect, he would be in Toledo; there's room for him there.....if they wanted him there. That they chose to send him to Erie is telling you how they value him as a starting pitching prospect. Either they believe he's not a starter but they're not ready to make the conversion, or they think he's a starter prospect, but not one of significant long-term value to make his placement a priority over others. Neither is a ringing endorsement. Noting roster crunches is a cover long used when asked about such assignment decisions.

For me, when I see an assignment decision like this for a player that I've always viewed as a relief prospect, I connect the dots. He's not a long-term starter in their eyes, they just may not be ready to make the conversion for whatever reason.

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43 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I'll echo what @microline133 said, but also point out there's room for him in the rotation if they really wanted him there.

I'm assuming Manning-Brieske-Hurter-Flores-Montero are the Toledo rotation...

So:

(A) The Org likes all these guys. As starters. That's why Madden is in Erie.

(B) Sammons has absolutely ZERO to do with anything.

(C) Despite Marks opine on Madden ending up in the bullpen: He'll be in the Erie rotation this year. And he may well end up in the bullpen. But he's in Erie's rotation because (1) they'll keep him in a rotation for as long as possible until there's no choice but to put him in the bullpen, and that is NOT in the minors (for the foreseeable future), that will be in Detroit if/when he gets there. (2) Failed starters stay in rotations for as long as possible ALSO to develop their pitches as much as they can. Really hard to do that in the bullpen because that's where a pitcher usually simplifies to a top-two pitches, and innings are drastically lower than in the rotation.

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Mark, has the Org stated SPECIFICALLY that they intend Madden to be in the bullpen?

Because otherwise, it sounds like pure speculation on your part.

And I see zero basis in reality for that speculation.

 

 

Edited by 1984Echoes
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7 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Mark, has the Org stated SPECIFICALLY that they intend Madden to be in the bullpen?

Because otherwise, it sounds like pure speculation on your part.

And I see zero basis in reality for that speculation.

 

 

No, they have not. My assessment is based on years of scouting players, including many like Madden, and speaking with industry professionals that have spent plenty of time watching Madden and formulating their own opinion. It's also based on years of talking with teams about their players, assignment decisions, and how they develop players. The overwhelming consensus in Madden's case? He's a reliever at the highest level.

Sure, you can label it speculation, but it's a helluva lot more informed speculation than what you're tossing around.

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BTW: Didn't you tell me two years ago that the prospects currently in our system are NO DIFFERENT than the prospects in our system in any other year?

So our Detroit team right now consists of Munson, Anderson and Scott Sizemore, right?

Because these guys are NO DIFFERENT than any other year, correct? Per your scouting acumen, as you so nobly pointed out, just above.

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2 minutes ago, microline133 said:

Willful ignorance....I'm not sure why I even bothered. 

I already stated that he most likely will end up in the bullpen, did you miss that?

Also, I stated the correct reasons he would be in Erie's rotation, FOR NOW.

And you didn't answer my question: Is he in Erie's bullpen? Or rotation?

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Even when he was drafted people were saying that there was a strong possibility that he'd end up in the bullpen so I can't say I'd be surprised if that is indeed where he ends up. The question is can he become a shutdown guy at the back end of it? If so there is definitely value in that so it wouldn't be the worst outcome for him. 

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For what it's worth, I had Flores in the Erie rotation all spring in my projections for the same reason Mark thinks Madden is there now. I don't have any reason to doubt it, but I would caution (in this world of player development advances at a moment's notice) against some post-hoc victory lap if Madden finds a pitch mix suitable for starting.

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One of Hanifee, Englert, and Sammons will be the fifth starter. Maybe they start the year with six. Last year most of the Toledo starters were going 3-4 innings tops early in the year, so you have a lot of tandems and glue guys. You also have SGL likely heading down there on a rehab assignment pretty promptly. Long story short, if they wanted Madden in AAA, it wasn't anybody on the roster precluding him from being there.

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But then who of Manning, Brieske, Flores, Hurter or Montero will NOT be the 5th starter, specifically because they were replaced by one of the 3 guys you mentioned? 

Because I don't see that.

I think your 3 guys are the 6th, or tandem starter, or follow-on 2-3 innings reliever. Not in the rotation 1-5 pushing out one of the guys I've listed.

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22 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

For what it's worth, I had Flores in the Erie rotation all spring in my projections for the same reason Mark thinks Madden is there now. I don't have any reason to doubt it, but I would caution (in this world of player development advances at a moment's notice) against some post-hoc victory lap if Madden finds a pitch mix suitable for starting.

The other thing is:

Flores is probably on the same track as Madden...

Eventually headed for the bullpen.

But he had a couple nastier pitches than Madden (at least in 2022); and is on a faster track than Madden... for the bullpen. So he's in the rotation in Toledo, developing at the higher level and facing more advanced hitters. IIRC, he's limited in the number of effective pitches that he has... like... two. So it makes sense for him to be one step away from Detroit.

As you say... Madden is still developing pitches and I think is more capable of developing secondary pitches, than Flores. So I guess that's why he's in Erie? Even if he also ends up in the bullpen (most likely scenario), he has more projection than Flores and needs more development time to see if he can figure that out.

But...

I'm just guessing.

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1 hour ago, microline133 said:

I'll elaborate a bit....

Teams are really good at telling you what they think of prospects if you are willing to listen. When they conduct minor league roster construction to start a season, they place their "priority" prospects first and then place everyone else around them. Guys they view highly aren't squeezed out of a spot unless there are somehow more "priority" guys at a position than they can fit on a roster. 

That's not the case here. After 30+ starts at Double-A, if Madden was a "priority" starting pitcher prospect, he would be in Toledo; there's room for him there.....if they wanted him there. That they chose to send him to Erie is telling you how they value him as a starting pitching prospect. Either they believe he's not a starter but they're not ready to make the conversion, or they think he's a starter prospect, but not one of significant long-term value to make his placement a priority over others. Neither is a ringing endorsement. Noting roster crunches is a cover long used when asked about such assignment decisions.

For me, when I see an assignment decision like this for a player that I've always viewed as a relief prospect, I connect the dots. He's not a long-term starter in their eyes, they just may not be ready to make the conversion for whatever reason.

That makes sense.  So, if the conversation hasn’t occurred, could it be due to Madden’s possible value on the trade market?  Or are other teams probably reading the tea leaves in the same general way?

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20 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

One of Hanifee, Englert, and Sammons will be the fifth starter. Maybe they start the year with six. Last year most of the Toledo starters were going 3-4 innings tops early in the year, so you have a lot of tandems and glue guys. You also have SGL likely heading down there on a rehab assignment pretty promptly. Long story short, if they wanted Madden in AAA, it wasn't anybody on the roster precluding him from being there.

Didn’t Toledo SP generally go once or twice through the lineup all season?  It sure seemed like they trotted out multi inning RP as SP darn near all year.

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