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Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)


gehringer_2

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22 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Manning gave up 8 earned yesterday, as well.  Our starting rotation depth is not working out this season.

Is there such a thing as starting pitch depth in the modern era?  If a team does think they have it, it's not going to be long before they don't have it.  

On Dingler, it seems like a good sign that he improves the following year when he repeats a level.  Performing much at AAA this year than last year and he did the same thing with AA the prior years.  Limited sample sizes but at least something to give us hope.  The question will be can he makes the hardest jump, which is the next one.  

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26 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Hamm looks promising 

Yes, he does.

I don't know what kind of "stuff" these under-the-radar guys have though. For any of these guys, I'd say they need to have a good FB and at least 1 good secondary pitch, for starters. I would look at Jake Miller and Zach Lee (23) and Hamm (21), maybe even Rayner Castillo (20) too. All at Lakeland except Hamm at A+.

That I don't know. They're dominating lowers, keeping walks and WHIP down. I have no idea what kind of upside though...

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6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yes, he does.

I don't know what kind of "stuff" these under-the-radar guys have though. For any of these guys, I'd say they need to have a good FB and at least 1 good secondary pitch, for starters. I would look at Jake Miller and Zach Lee (23) and Hamm (21), maybe even Rayner Castillo (20) too. All at Lakeland except Hamm at A+.

That I don't know. They're dominating lowers, keeping walks and WHIP down. I have no idea what kind of upside though...

So Castillo is sitting around 95-97 this year and doesn't turn 20 until the 30th of this month. Another pitcher I would keep an eye on is Marcano he's 20 (21 in July) and pitching on High-A and has really turned it on since the middle of May. 

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2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Manning gave up 8 earned yesterday, as well.  Our starting rotation depth is not working out this season.

Looked through the gamecast. Pretty much everything he threw got hit, but mostly his FB, which started out with decent velo (~95) but by the fifth when he was lifted was down to ~92. The kid does not seem to be developing the endurance to go deep into games (though we can probably say that about Skubal as well, but less so). Sometimes Manning has enough life on his FB to be able to throw it without spotting it well, but not today - he threw a lot over the middle and a lot got hit.

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7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Looked through the gamecast. Pretty much everything he threw got hit, but mostly his FB, which started out with decent velo (~95) but by the fifth when he was lifted was down to ~92. The kid does not seem to be developing the endurance to go deep into games (though we can probably say that about Skubal as well, but less so). Sometimes Manning has enough life on his FB to be able to throw it without spotting it well, but not today - he threw a lot over the middle and a lot got hit.

I had this weird fantasy once-upon-a-time that Manning could turn into another JV.

Long and lanky, uber-athletic, fires missiles at home plate.

But there's nothing Manning has that's like JV, not the stamina, not the repeatability, not the secondary pitches, not the control, certainly not any consistency.

That little fever dream is evaporating.

Errr, evaporated.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I had this weird fantasy once-upon-a-time that Manning could turn into another JV.

Long and lanky, uber-athletic, fires missiles at home plate.

But there's nothing Manning has that's like JV, not the stamina, not the repeatability, not the secondary pitches, not the control, certainly not any consistency.

That little fever dream is evaporating.

Errr, evaporated.

Yup - that's what pitchers do. If they never flashed all-start stuff at all, they'd have never been on anyones radar to begin with. I think that's true more often then not for a pro athlete. The difference often is not the highest level they can achieve when everything is right, it's how high the lowest level they fall to is when everything is wrong. A lot of guys can be great occasionally, very few can be consistently great. We see the former and hope they turn into the later, but if they always did it would be too easy, right?.....🌈🦃

Edited by gehringer_2
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dingler will settle in nicely as a platoon catcher who goes 210/300/400 with an average arm and average defense.  jake rogers 2.0.

honestly, that's not horrible for a second round pick.  but lance parrish or bill freehan he is not.

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11 hours ago, buddha said:

dingler will settle in nicely as a platoon catcher who goes 210/300/400 with an average arm and average defense.  jake rogers 2.0.

honestly, that's not horrible for a second round pick.  but lance parrish or bill freehan he is not.

He might not be Freehan or Parrish...

But I think he'll be better than Rogers 2.0.

Just a WAG.

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19 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

He might not be Freehan or Parrish...

But I think he'll be better than Rogers 2.0.

Just a WAG.

do you ever get tired of being disappointed by prospects?  🙂

when are you going to join me in the "bitter old man" club?

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I will do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to avoid becoming a bitter old man.

I hate even thinking of that. I've seen it in grocery stores where two 80 years olds (Boca Raton, FL, a long time ago) are screaming at each other at the top of their lungs: "You weren't in the meat department. You were SUPPOSED to meet me in the MEAT department!!!" Etc.

Yeesh.

No, I prefer my mostly upbeat optimistic basic core personality.

I'm good with that.

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But as for Dingler:

2021: High A .287 BA, .925 OPS.

2022: second time through AA (his first pass in 2021 he struggled badly): .238 BA, .752 OPS.

2023: 3rd time in AA: .253 BA, .833 OPS

2024: second time through AAA (his first pass in 2023 he struggled badly): .287 BA, .858 OPS.

My hope is that if he got called up this year (either/or after trade deadline if Kelly is traded; if not: September) he might struggle initially, but by next year he would start showing flashes that would boost him as better than Rogers 2.0. You offered .210/ .300/ .400.

I'll offer .240 to .260 (range over the years 2025 to 2030), .330/.450 average OPS of .780.

Edited by 1984Echoes
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 BA's statcast standout

Thomas Bruss, RHP, Tigers

Bruss made his first appearance in this series about a month ago. Since then, he’s started mixing in more of what looks to be a plus changeup. Baseball Prospectus rates the changeup as -1.5 runs/100 pitches, which means it will prevent 1.5 runs more than the average pitch per 100 pitches, including an incredible 59% expected whiff rate on swings. 

 

We’re looking at three distinct pitch shapes, with the changeup getting a lot of swing and miss. The fastball still has great velocity, averaging 96.5 mph, and he’s getting slightly above-average ride on the pitch. It won’t overwhelm batters, but it is very promising. As we wrote last month, it’s the type of pitch that goes from average to plus-plus if he can find two inches of ride (not an easy thing to do). The changeup is currently running a tremendous 37% swinging strike rate (whiffs/pitch) and a 60% whiff rate (whiffs/swing), backing up the StuffPro evaluation. The slider looks like an average or better pitch as well, given the fastball velocity and the true gyro spin.

My confidence in Bruss as a potential big league arm is growing. While I’d love to see him promoted soon, that will also mean we lose publicly available Statcast data on him until he gets to Triple-A. With pitchers, the raw ingredients are often more instructive than the raw performance. Bruss has a lot going for him in that respect, given the massive 6-foot-8 frame and the velocity. If he’s still in the FSL in a month, will check back in again.

He was a minor league signing earlier this year.

 

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40 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'll offer .240 to .260 (range over the years 2025 to 2030), .330/.450 average OPS of .780.

43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: And I don't think that is unreasonable.

that would make Dingler a borderline all-star

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