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Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)


gehringer_2

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Catcher is one of the more interesting decisions we will have to make this winter.

First of all, I think it’s unlikely that Carson Kelly will accept only one year. He already got two years from us coming into 2023, so with a season like he’s had, he will stand pat on years at the very least. Guys value the security of knowing they’ll have a job, so years (and total dollars) are more important than AAV.

As a result, I’m less concerned about what the salary will be than what the guaranteed years will be. Kelly might take two guaranteed with a team option for a third or more, and he shouldn’t have any trouble getting it. Is he the guy Harris will want to start for us in 2026 when he’s age 31-32? That seems doubtful.

On the other hand, Jake Rogers: I realize I’d said hard no on an extension for him, and I still believe that. There’s no reason to pull that particular trigger on a catcher without a stick who’s 29 and under control until 2027. But I am very intrigued by the difference between how Reference values him versus how FanGraphs values him. Last year Reference said Jake was an 0.7 WAR catcher with slightly above average defense, but Fangraphs thought he was a 2.5 WAR player with amazing catcher skills. And even this year, Reference has Jake at 0.1 and Fangraphs has him at 0.9. Savant agrees with the idea that Jake has elite catcher skills.

I’ve long preferred FG over Ref when it comes to wins, so I’m coming around to the glove-first value of Jake. The complicating factor is that hitting is a big need for this team going forward, and I’m not sure we can afford to punt on catcher hitting to the tune of 75 or so wRC+. But, important flip side, catcher skills are super important for helping pitchers achieve their results as well.

Ultimately, I do think we’re going to arb rather than extension with Jake for sure, and we may try to get Carson to accept another 1+1 contract for more money, which I think will be a stretch, so maybe we bite the bullet on a guaranteed two. But really, that second one is rather dependent on Dillon Dingler, isn’t it? Because if his stick keeps up, we may take a flyer on some combination of Jake and Dingler next year.

Fascinating. 

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Got my hands on the media guide finally, to get a glimpse at some scouting turnover.

Long-time scout Harold Zonder, who covered the Ohio Valley retired, backfilled by a young guy who was doing video for the Pirates. As of the time of the media guide, they had not filled the Northern California area job. 

Oh, Dave Littlefield is no longer listed in the media guide anywhere. He had been in pro scouting since Garko took his Player Dev spot.

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Theres a number of guys having nice offensive seasons in the DSL...SS Dickson and Osorio are both over .900 OPS.  Dickson is 17 and Osorio is 19. Cristian Perez...17 year old CF is batting over 300 with an 880 ops.

The increased emphasis on international development may start paying off in a few years

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7 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Theres a number of guys having nice offensive seasons in the DSL...SS Dickson and Osorio are both over .900 OPS.  Dickson is 17 and Osorio is 19. Cristian Perez...17 year old CF is batting over 300 with an 880 ops.

The increased emphasis on international development may start paying off in a few years

Dickson made it into the Top 30 of BA's updated midseason list. He was 30 but hey still listed.

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Not a subscriber so I don't have any details but I saw on Facebook that Baseball Prospectus' updated their top 50 post draft and 4 Tigers made the list. Jobe at number 3, McGonigle at 20, Clark at 35 and Rainer at 50. 

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13 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not a subscriber so I don't have any details but I saw on Facebook that Baseball Prospectus' updated their top 50 post draft and 4 Tigers made the list. Jobe at number 3, McGonigle at 20, Clark at 35 and Rainer at 50. 

Interesting to see McGonigle leapfrog Clark and end up so high on this list.  And no Jung?

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Actually... Jung was drafted as a 2B'man and played there until Keith's shoulder burnt out...

I think "technically" he could still be labelled as a 2B-3B guy as I don't think that will be settled just yet. Plus, he's played 17 games at Toledo at 2B this year...

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