Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[romad1]

Routinely they would try to showcase Cale Iorg in AFL so he'd be picked up in one of Dave's trades for a Cy Young awardee.  

Meanwhile, if we aren't careful they'll trade Tork for a bag of baseballs. 

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, microline133 said:

Sure, anything can be taught, at least in theory

Of course if you could teach long, strong fingers......

[microline133]

5 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Of course if you could teach long, strong fingers......

Right.

 

I want to circle back to this because I think this is a great example of how scouts project a player and often times fans don't necessarily understand why they're quick to tag a guy in a certain role or limit their potential in a write-up, instead of just assuming growth where they need it.

With a guy like Flores, I'm not going to project the CV to develop much because I don't have any evidence in the current profile of him being able to manipulate the ball in the way he needs to in order for the CV to step forward. Right now the arsenal has a fastball and cutter, which let's be honest is just a variation on the fastball with grip or finger pressure changes.

The CV currently doesn't have the type of spin rate to suggest he's got "it" to snap it off down the line. If, let's say, he threw a competent slider or even a changeup (though this would be a tougher leap), then I have evidence that he can spin or manipulate SOMETHING. In that case, I'm going to at least consider projecting advancement of the CV, maybe not much but some. Instead, I'm left with a fastball pitcher that doesn't yet generate the spin necessary for success with the CV.

On top of that, even if he shifts to a slider and somehow finds success, he still doesn't have anything with a significant vertical component. Without that, he's generally working in at best just the vicinity of one plane, maybe actually in just one plane, so he has to demonstrate ability to change planes with location consistently. 

All that combined, a fastball/cutter arm that needs to elevate to change sight lines instead of utilizing pitch movement, and not seeing any substantial ability to spin the ball, leaves him with a relief profile (for me, anyway). If he breaks the expected path he's on and suddenly finds more spin as he develops, then that's a substantial profile change that necessitates revisiting the overall projection. I'd adjust that projection if that happens, but as it stands now it wouldn't be prudent to project anything more than relief in his future.

[Ancient Fan]

14 hours ago, microline133 said:

Sure, anything can be taught, at least in theory. If I'm projecting Flores, I don't see the ability to snap the curveball and generate the spin necessary for a high quality pitch. That's a harder thing to teach....not everyone can do it. Truly, to avoid the reliever tag for me, he'd need to show some evidence of something softer in his arsenal. Until that happens, it's a power reliever profile.

This is only partly true. Although I was able to pitch my way to semipro status, I was told I would never be able to advance any farther because my hands were too small. You do have to have the physical shape.

[1984Echoes]

Micro the one thing I saw that went against what you're saying is that I read he actually has a curveball that is generating 51% swing and miss. So... is that just against lower levels but doesn't have enough spin to get the same results at higher minor league levels? Or is that an error in reporting (my apologies, I don't remember where I read that...)?

[microline133]

34 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Micro the one thing I saw that went against what you're saying is that I read he actually has a curveball that is generating 51% swing and miss. So... is that just against lower levels but doesn't have enough spin to get the same results at higher minor league levels? Or is that an error in reporting (my apologies, I don't remember where I read that...)?

It's largely a function of low level guys can't hit even below average breaking balls.

[casimir]

On 10/7/2021 at 9:34 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

AFL champion will be determined by a potato sack race across the outfield.  

 

On 10/7/2021 at 10:56 PM, Tiger337 said:

Don't give Manfred any ideas.  

Hmm.... how does Manfred apply that MLB postseason seeding?

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, microline133 said:

It's largely a function of low level guys can't hit even below average breaking balls.

Thanks!

Helpful... and interesting... in an "I need to take with a grain of salt" what they're saying about lower level numbers. And... that an in-person scout is better information than reading the internets...

I mean, obviously... but that provides stark context.

[RandyMarsh]

4 hours ago, microline133 said:

It's largely a function of low level guys can't hit even below average breaking balls.

Completely off topic from this but as a scout can you explain whats up with Mize's splitter? Like that graded as a 70 pitch when he was drafted now its non existent. How does something like that happen?

[microline133]

5 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Completely off topic from this but as a scout can you explain whats up with Mize's splitter? Like that graded as a 70 pitch when he was drafted now its non existent. How does something like that happen?

Any dozen things can happen there....he can lose feel for it, they can tweak an arm angle or body position in the delivery that inadvertently has a negative effect on that pitch, or even they could ask him to shelve it because of perceived negative health impacts....depending on org philosophy, they could simply push him in another direction.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, microline133 said:

Any dozen things can happen there....he can lose feel for it, they can tweak an arm angle or body position in the delivery that inadvertently has a negative effect on that pitch, or even they could ask him to shelve it because of perceived negative health impacts....depending on org philosophy, they could simply push him in another direction.

Plus you have to give big league hitters some credit. Just because a pitch makes 95% of college hitters look foolish doesn't mean that's going to translate to the Majors. To me it looks like the decision was results based - he's trended toward the slider because he was more effective with it than when he was throwing the split more. I've always been partial to the conventional wisdom  that prospects with power fastballs are considered premium because  98 is 98 in any league. The results on the breaking ball depend more on the recognition skills of the hitters you are going against so they don't always play as well as pitchers more up the chain. The hardware available to measure spin and ball flight helps with that a lot more than in the past but I'd guess  it remains true to some degree even now. 

[1984Echoes]

I thought also that the Org felt that his splitter was adversely affecting his FB and control/ other pitches... It was making him a worse pitcher. So Fetter asked him to scrap it. IIRC.

[Cruzer1]

9 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

I thought also that the Org felt that his splitter was adversely affecting his FB and control/ other pitches... It was making him a worse pitcher. So Fetter asked him to scrap it. IIRC.

He's throwing it, FG has him down for 13.2% of the time.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/casey-mize/20492/stats?position=P

[Cruzer1]

On 10/8/2021 at 7:40 AM, microline133 said:

Sure, anything can be taught, at least in theory. If I'm projecting Flores, I don't see the ability to snap the curveball and generate the spin necessary for a high quality pitch. That's a harder thing to teach....not everyone can do it. Truly, to avoid the reliever tag for me, he'd need to show some evidence of something softer in his arsenal. Until that happens, it's a power reliever profile.

He seems to have the frame for power stuff, am I correct?

[IdahoBert]

How will we be able to follow our guys in the AFL? When the season begins October 13 will there at least be box scores or stats of some kind to follow? Is there any real reporting on these games? I’ve never been interested enough to follow it so I personally have no idea.

[RatkoVarda]

https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league

scores and stats here

all the usual rankers will stop by for a few days and tweet what they see

 

[romad1]

The story about Riley Greene having a concussion seems leaked to me.  

Spencer Torkelson to AFL appears designed to fix the "mistake" of Prince not playing him at 3B at all which combined with Prince being a Littlefield guy meant Prince was gone.  However, that hypothesis might be debunked by Torkelson not playing any 3B in AFL.   Torkelson might just want to play a bit more in front of family.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, romad1 said:

The story about Riley Greene having a concussion seems leaked to me.  

Spencer Torkelson to AFL appears designed to fix the "mistake" of Prince not playing him at 3B at all which combined with Prince being a Littlefield guy meant Prince was gone.  However, that hypothesis might be debunked by Torkelson not playing any 3B in AFL.   Torkelson might just want to play a bit more in front of family.

it's true he didn't play in the last game. I wondered if it was just so his BA couldn't fall below 300. Woozy makes more sense.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

... Torkelson might just want to play a bit more in front of family.

I think Tork is simply to get him more acclimated to higher-level quality breaking balls and the higher volume of them.

[romad1]

16 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I think Tork is simply to get him more acclimated to higher-level quality breaking balls and the higher volume of them.

I can buy that.  I do wonder if the new guys coming in for player development weren't "torqued" that Tork didn't get that development time at the higher value 3B position. 

[casimir]

3 hours ago, romad1 said:

The story about Riley Greene having a concussion seems leaked to me.  

Spencer Torkelson to AFL appears designed to fix the "mistake" of Prince not playing him at 3B at all which combined with Prince being a Littlefield guy meant Prince was gone.  However, that hypothesis might be debunked by Torkelson not playing any 3B in AFL.   Torkelson might just want to play a bit more in front of family.

Interesting theory about Prince & Torkelson.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's true he didn't play in the last game. I wondered if it was just so his BA couldn't fall below 300. Woozy makes more sense.

Is saving a .300 AVG in AAA really a priority in this day and age?

[romad1]

3 minutes ago, casimir said:

Interesting theory about Prince & Torkelson.

Wild speculation, but some of the facts fit. 

[gehringer_2]

18 minutes ago, casimir said:

Is saving a .300 AVG in AAA really a priority in this day and age?

woundn't think so, but at the time I had seen no report for the reason that he didn't play the last day.

[Archie]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

Interesting theory about Prince & Torkelson.

I think if the Tigers and Hinch wanted Tork to play at 3B in Toledo that's where he would of played.  If Prince was told to play him there and refused I could see Prince being let go before the end of the season and Tork playing 3B.