Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[RandyMarsh]

Last summer I looked in depth of all the High School players drafted in the top 10ish(I didn't have a firm cut off but tried to keep it at 10 but if I saw a guy at 11 or 12 I'd include them) from 08-18(I cut it off there cause I figured 2019 and 2020 was too soon to really get an idea of them) and I found that the hit rate was virtually the same whether it was a pitcher or hitter when it came to players coming out of High School. They both hit at a relatively low rate so really picking any player out of HS is a great risk. 

[Longgone]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Keith > Pacheco.  Pacheco’s swing and miss tendencies will likely become more of an issue as he moves up.  The only knock against Keith were concerns about how much power he’d have, which I think he’s addressed.

I’d rank the hitters this way:

1. Keith

2. Wenceel

3. Pacheco

4. Carpenter 

5. Campos

6. Dingler

7. Santana 

1. Keith

2. Campos

3. Pacheco

4. Santana

5. Orsorio

6. Sequera

7. DIngler

 

 

[Tenacious D]

1 minute ago, Longgone said:

1. Keith

2. Campos

3. Pacheco

4. Santana

5. Orsorio

6. Sequera

7. DIngler

 

 

No Perez?  Still only 22 and has added power.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m not sure he’s received much attention here, but C Josh Crouch has hit very well in Lakeland.  Excellent K and BB rates and hitting for average. Not sure about his defense, but his offensive profile (so far) is the opposite of Rogers and Dingler.  Will be interesting to watch.  I suspect he’ll move up to Erie if/when Dingler goes up to Toledo.

3K in his last 48 PA. That's pretty rare.

Wenceel Perez undaunted by AA pitching so far. Parker Meadows with a strong June (870 OPS). maybe having his brother in the org has charged him up.

Baddoo with a 9 game on-base streak going.

Edited June 19, 2022 by gehringer_2

[buddha]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I don’t get that concern.  Would he be healthier if he went to college for a few seasons and then drafted?  Instead, he has the benefit of better coaching and concern for his arm health.

If your concern is not health related, but lack of a track record pitching against college hitters, that I understand.

I just wouldn’t read too much into his performance so far.  Manning had some bumps along the way and was able to work through them, without the benefit of having Fetter in the org, which Jobe has.

in all the scenarios in all the world, there is nothing as fragile as a high school right handed pitcher.

mayer was there for the taking and they doubled down on an 18 hear old's recent ability to spin a baseball and took jobe.  it was too risky for me.  we'll see how it goes.  i hope he's another verlander.

[RandyMarsh]

The one benefit of drafting a HS pitcher vs. one that went to college for 3 years is that college coaches can sometimes be notoriously hard on the pitchers, after all their main concern is how they perform for them and their team, how they perform down the road in the majors doesn't really matter to them.

Where as if you draft them and control them for those 3 years he would otherwise be in college you get to monitor his workload give him access to professional coaches,trainers, facilities, medical staff and can just better dictate his development. Of course considering the Tigers history at doing so that may not be the best thing for a player. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by RandyMarsh

[SoCalTiger]

1. Keith

2. Kreidler

3. Campos

4. Santana

5. Segura

 

[romad1]

Now that Greene is up I really want Baddoo to get back to the MLB team so that commercial makes sense.  Unless its the near-parallel timeline where those two are forced to car-jack dudes with pyramid auto-repair insurance schemes because they fell on hard times.

[mtutiger]

7 hours ago, buddha said:

in all the scenarios in all the world, there is nothing as fragile as a high school right handed pitcher.

mayer was there for the taking and they doubled down on an 18 hear old's recent ability to spin a baseball and took jobe.  it was too risky for me.  we'll see how it goes.  i hope he's another verlander.

Is there a scenario where you would choose a high school arm over a position player? Or is this comment specific to Mayer and his prospects?

I would have preferred they picked someone other than Jobe, tbh, but it stands to reason that limiting a specifc profile from your draft philosophy might not be beneficial to a team in the long run.

Edited June 19, 2022 by mtutiger

[TigerNation]

9 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

The one benefit of drafting a HS pitcher vs. one that went to college for 3 years is that college coaches can sometimes be notoriously hard on the pitchers, after all their main concern is how they perform for them and their team, how they perform down the road in the majors doesn't really matter to them.

Where as if you draft them and control them for those 3 years he would otherwise be in college you get to monitor his workload give him access to professional coaches,trainers, facilities, medical staff and can just better dictate his development. Of course considering the Tigers history at doing so that may not be the best thing for a player. 

The Tigers recent history of drafting and developing pitchers is pretty good though.

[mtutiger]

13 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

The Tigers recent history of drafting and developing pitchers is pretty good though.

I would agree, but that isn't necessarily the consensus among some 

[Tenacious D]

10 hours ago, buddha said:

in all the scenarios in all the world, there is nothing as fragile as a high school right handed pitcher.

mayer was there for the taking and they doubled down on an 18 hear old's recent ability to spin a baseball and took jobe.  it was too risky for me.  we'll see how it goes.  i hope he's another verlander.

When should a RH pitcher be drafted?  

[buddha]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Is there a scenario where you would choose a high school arm over a position player? Or is this comment specific to Mayer and his prospects?

I would have preferred they picked someone other than Jobe, tbh, but it stands to reason that limiting a specifc profile from your draft philosophy might not be beneficial to a team in the long run.

not that high in the draft.  too risky.

[buddha]

46 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

When should a RH pitcher be drafted?  

rh high school pitcher?  not that high in the draft in front of the best position player prospect in the draft.

im in the "build through position players" camp of drafting high when team building.  doesnt always work to pass on a pitcher (see verlander, justin), but its a pretty good rule of thumb.  pitchers are just too injury prone (see also mize, casey; manning, matt; faedo, alex).

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

rh high school pitcher?  not that high in the draft in front of the best position player prospect in the draft.

im in the "build through position players" camp of drafting high when team building.  doesnt always work to pass on a pitcher (see verlander, justin), but its a pretty good rule of thumb.  pitchers are just too injury prone (see also mize, casey; manning, matt; faedo, alex).

I am also in favor of building through position players more than pitchers.  If there is a pitcher at your pick that is obviously the best pick, then you take him.  When in doubt, go with the position player.    

[mtutiger]

35 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

If there is a pitcher at your pick that is obviously the best pick, then you take him.  

One can obviously disagree with the pick, but that may actually be what happened here.

Just my two cents, but I dont think teams should be ruling out picks purely based on the level of experience and position. Maybe there should be more skepticism of a HS RH pitcher, but when you limit yourself based on arbitrary restrictions like that, you limit your options. And one can imagine scenarios where you get burned.

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One can obviously disagree with the pick, but that may actually be what happened here.

Just my two cents, but I dont think teams should be ruling out picks purely based on the level of experience and position. Maybe there should be more skepticism of a HS RH pitcher, but when you limit yourself based on arbitrary restrictions like that, you limit your options. And one can imagine scenarios where you get burned.

They know a lot more than me.  I am generalizing.  I would want to know if other teams thought similarly to the Tigers about Jobe/Mayer.  It seems risky.  

Edited June 19, 2022 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

They know a lot more than me.  I am generalizing.  I would want to know if other teams thought similarly to the Tigers about Jobe/Mayer.  It seems risky.  

Mayer and Lawler are off to big starts, Mayer’s K rates might be more than you want to at A ball. At the time from what I read, the question was whether either was going to stay at SS. You see a number of scouting reports that are sort of self-contradictory. The player “has a body that will fill out for power”, but then project the bat with that power as plus for a shortstop. 

[Shinzaki]

How badly will this board melt down when Al drafts Porter?

Edited June 19, 2022 by Shinzaki

[mtutiger]

Uhhh, outfield competition is ON

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

How badly will this board melt down when Al drafts Porter?

My issue with him is 12th seems too high.  His value is in that he is one of the top starters still standing.  Without all of the other pitcher injuries, he would be pushed down the draft boards.

[gehringer_2]

Carpenter hits #22 today along with a double, 2/4 no Ks.

[gehringer_2]

Perez, and Meadows seem to have gotten a new lease on life with the new development staff. 

[SeattleMike]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Mayer and Lawler are off to big starts, Mayer’s K rates might be more than you want to at A ball. At the time from what I read, the question was whether either was going to stay at SS. You see a number of scouting reports that are sort of self-contradictory. The player “has a body that will fill out for power”, but then project the bat with that power as plus for a shortstop. 

Mayer with a 137 RC+ at low A. Pacheco with a 131 RC+ at same level. Pacheco is a month younger. Understand Pacheco will not stick at SS but, as you suggest, there are worries that Mayer may not either. Who knows?  Maybe Tigers picked up a Mayer's clone in the second round and will hit with Jobe as well. We can dream. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, SeattleMike said:

Mayer with a 137 RC+ at low A. Pacheco with a 131 RC+ at same level. Pacheco is a month younger. Understand Pacheco will not stick at SS but, as you suggest, there are worries that Mayer may not either. Who knows?  Maybe Tigers picked up a Mayer's clone in the second round and will hit with Jobe as well. We can dream. 

We get the Royal Flush if that happens.

I don't want to count on that... certainly not quite yet...

But we'll see. If that does happen... 

I wonder if the general attitude in here just might change...