Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[buddha]

https://images.app.goo.gl/wCXBedcM1uXXeBWw7

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

https://images.app.goo.gl/wCXBedcM1uXXeBWw7

We'll see if that's how it all works out...

Yet to be determined and at least 2-3 years to have any real sense out of all these kids whether they will make it or flop out....

[mtutiger]

27 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

We'll see if that's how it all works out...

Yet to be determined and at least 2-3 years to have any real sense out of all these kids whether they will make it or flop out....

If Flores and Madden were performing exactly as they have while members of any other org, the response wouldn't be CB and the football. 

Where they are and the recognition they are getting nationally is through their own talent... being drafted by Al Avila doesn't inherently make them predestined to failure

Edited September 3, 2022 by mtutiger

[buddha]

7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

If Flores and Madden were performing exactly as they have while members of any other org, the response wouldn't be CB and the football. 

Where they are and the recognition they are getting nationally is through their own talent... being drafted by Al Avila doesn't inherently make them predestined to failure

i'm excited about red wings prospects (not as excited as 84...) because the guy running the show has a long track record of success and his first two draft picks finished 1 and 4 in rookie of the year voting.

al avila has a track record of failure and until we get these guys out of the system and bring some new ones in, that record will likely continue.

one or two might hit.  the odds are that a couple will become good major league baseball players.  but the vast vast majority will not.  so i will continue to chuckle at the amount of excitement generated for A ball pitchers.

hopefully i'm wrong and 84 is right.

[microline133]

Personally, I'd stay a bit tempered on both Flores and Madden. There's still a fair number of scouts I've talked to that have reliever projection on Madden, though he's converted a couple guys I know to thinking he can be a #4, and most also only see back-end ability for Flores due to c/c projection and less feel for the CH than you'd like at this stage.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm excited about red wings prospects (not as excited as 84...) because the guy running the show has a long track record of success and his first two draft picks finished 1 and 4 in rookie of the year voting.

al avila has a track record of failure and until we get these guys out of the system and bring some new ones in, that record will likely continue.

one or two might hit.  the odds are that a couple will become good major league baseball players.  but the vast vast majority will not.  so i will continue to chuckle at the amount of excitement generated for A ball pitchers.

hopefully i'm wrong and 84 is right.

Fair enough.

1 minute ago, microline133 said:

Personally, I'd stay a bit tempered on both Flores and Madden. There's still a fair number of scouts I've talked to that have reliever projection on Madden, though he's converted a couple guys I know to thinking he can be a #4, and most also only see back-end ability for Flores due to c/c projection and less feel for the CH than you'd like at this stage.

Completely reasonable, I don't know that there's a consensus around either guy being top-end material.

[mtutiger]

18 minutes ago, buddha said:

so i will continue to chuckle at the amount of excitement generated for A ball pitchers.

Not sure you're referring to Madden or Flores or someone else here (since those guys are AA pitchers now), either way, I think it's possible to be interested in the performance of minor league players in the Detroit Tigers system despite the fact that many of them may not make the major leagues.

Particularly on a Detroit Tigers message board for fans who follow this team more closely than the GP.

[buddha]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Not sure you're referring to Madden or Flores or someone else here (since those guys are AA pitchers now), either way, I think it's possible to be interested in the performance of minor league players in the Detroit Tigers system despite the fact that many of them may not make the major leagues.

Particularly on a Detroit Tigers message board for fans who follow this team more closely than the GP.

ok.

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, buddha said:

i'm excited about red wings prospects (not as excited as 84...) because the guy running the show has a long track record of success and his first two draft picks finished 1 and 4 in rookie of the year voting.

I kind of wish I could get into the NHL.  It would be fun to get in while the Wings are on the way up.  The Yzerman angle is great fodder.  Derek Lalonde had a stop with the Walleye.  I may have to watch some Wings, but they'd be behind the Pistons and Walleye and there's just only so much time during the day

[buddha]

9 minutes ago, casimir said:

I kind of wish I could get into the NHL.  It would be fun to get in while the Wings are on the way up.  The Yzerman angle is great fodder.  Derek Lalonde had a stop with the Walleye.  I may have to watch some Wings, but they'd be behind the Pistons and Walleye and there's just only so much time during the day

that's how i feel about the tigers.  i dont really care anymore and i'm not going to go out of my way to watch them. we'll see what the new regime brings.

only so much time in the day to do stuff.

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, casimir said:

I kind of wish I could get into the NHL.  It would be fun to get in while the Wings are on the way up.  The Yzerman angle is great fodder.  Derek Lalonde had a stop with the Walleye.  I may have to watch some Wings, but they'd be behind the Pistons and Walleye and there's just only so much time during the day

I like the sport of hockey and watch the SC Playoffs when they come up, but I've been unable to invest myself in any NHL team for any length of time. Usually end up defaulting to following whichever team is nearby (which means Dallas for the past few years)

[Tenacious D]

for what it is worth, we've seen pretty good development and performance from our pitching prospects.  the issue has been keeping them healthy.  Mize had a solid rookie last year, and it wouldn't have been unreasonable to think he could have improved upon that.  Skubal make improvements this season.  Manning has looked pretty good so far in '22, when healthy.  Hill and Brieske have overachieved while rushed into service (of course Brieske got injured).  The relievers mostly have put together good performances (Lange, Foley, Vest, Jiminez, Soto).  No one is a slam-dunk, but have been more pretty good than bad and are young enough to improve.  I'm not smart enough to know if Flores or Madden (or Olson, D. Smith, etc..) will be best suited as starters or relievers, but look like they will be able to make a contribution at the MLB level.  Assuming they can stay healthy, of course.

[LongLiveMaroth]

1 hour ago, microline133 said:

Personally, I'd stay a bit tempered on both Flores and Madden. There's still a fair number of scouts I've talked to that have reliever projection on Madden, though he's converted a couple guys I know to thinking he can be a #4, and most also only see back-end ability for Flores due to c/c projection and less feel for the CH than you'd like at this stage.

I'm curious what you have heard about some of these "breakouts" like Meadows and Perez? Anyone feel like it's for real? How about Jobe? 

[Edman85]

56 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

for what it is worth, we've seen pretty good development and performance from our pitching prospects.  the issue has been keeping them healthy. 

1. Health is part of development, but I'll put that aside since there is some luck and randomness there.

2. I just don't think this is borne out in the results relative to other teams. Yeah, the Tigers have done better developing pitchers than hitters, but still have had many flame out in recent years. Is Mize a development success when you take him 1-1? Is Manning a development success when he is taken 1-6 and takes six years to start to pitch well at the big league level? Are those guys development successes or tanking successes?

Some other highish picks in recent years that flamed out: Adam Wolf, Hugh Smith, Gio Arriera, Beau Burrows. There has been a lot of stagnation on the international side: guys like Guzman and Montero to name a couple. The Tigers may be average/above averagish at best at developing pitchers, and certainly don't compare to (off the top of my head) the Guardians, Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers, Astros, Giants, etc. that just pump guys out and have numerous guys banging down the door ever year.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Edman85

[microline133]

20 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I'm curious what you have heard about some of these "breakouts" like Meadows and Perez? Anyone feel like it's for real? How about Jobe? 

I haven't found anyone that is terribly impressed by Perez. General consensus seems to be he probably reaches the big leagues eventually, but in a utility/bench role. Meadows has garnered a little more praise, but I still haven't found anyone that suddenly believes he's an above-average regular. Given his developmental arc and the swing and miss still present in his game, I think he's going to have to continue to perform to convert the scout types...had the arc been a little more positive from the start, there's a decent chance you may have seen some guys come around sooner this year.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The Tigers may be average/above averagish at best at developing pitchers, and certainly don't compare to (off the top of my head) the Guardians, Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Brewers, Astros, Giants, etc. that just pump guys out.

Clearly they arent in the league of the teams you have mentioned.

But there's a middle ground between thinking they are in that league and thinking that everyone following their pitchers is Charlie Brown kicking the football, and that's where this team lies in terms of its pitching development.

[Edman85]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Clearly they arent in the league of the teams you have mentioned.

But there's a middle ground between thinking they are in that league and thinking that everyone following their pitchers is Charlie Brown kicking the football, and that's where this team lies in terms of its pitching development.

Even that might be a stretch outside of the Tigers Prospect Twitter Bubble. I'd need to see more to that argument than some proclamations.

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Even that might be a stretch outside of the Tigers Prospect Twitter Bubble. I'd need to see more to that argument than some proclamations.

The conversation here kinda in part started with Flores getting recognition from a national media figure, so at least in the case of him and probably Madden, I would say the truth falls more in between.

[buddha]

skubal is the only guy i would call a real development success and now he's hurt.  he may be destined for the bullpen if his arm cant hold up.

i dont pretend to be a prospect analyst.  i know nothing about scouting.  but i can see the results and the results of the other teams and know that the tigers arent very good at this.

the only tigers prospects i have expectations for are greene and tork.  and tork is....not living up to them yet.

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

i dont pretend to be a prospect analyst.  i know nothing about scouting.  but i can see the results and the results of the other teams and know that the tigers arent very good at this.

The "hype train" thing that Ed talks about is real. And while some of us follow the Austin Bergner and Beau Brieske types and hope they succeed, at least on this board, I think most are savvy enough to not just swallow anything that Dan Hasty or other Tiger Prospect Twitter types put out there uncritically.

Where I differ is with Flores in particular... Flores is, by all accounts, a borderline Top 100 guy. BA actually has him ranked 90 on their Top 100. And now, apparently Jim Bowden sees him as a possible Top 50 guy in the upcoming year.

At least in this case, that isn't the Woodward Tigers guys or Dan Hasty doing the talking... these are objective analysts from outside of the org making that determination. It doesn't mean he will pan out or there isn't reliever risk, obviously, but he's garnered enough national attention to believe there's something there IMO

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, mtutiger said:

... Completely reasonable, I don't know that there's a consensus around either guy being top-end material.

Absolutely. I don't see anyone who has stated "oh wow,  these guys are our next Aces...'

 

4 hours ago, microline133 said:

Personally, I'd stay a bit tempered on both Flores and Madden. There's still a fair number of scouts I've talked to that have reliever projection on Madden, though he's converted a couple guys I know to thinking he can be a #4, and most also only see back-end ability for Flores due to c/c projection and less feel for the CH than you'd like at this stage.

Again, and to reiterate mtutiger: perfectly fine. A rotation has to be filled out and I don't expect 5 Aces (my definition is just a guy who fits into a top 3 spot on a pennant contending team...) to be in our rotation. As how I see it, we have a crapload of back-end rotation guys who will end up as (A) 4th and 5th starters for the Tigers, or... (B) pushed into the bullpen as middle/ long relievers/ spot starters or... (C) Stall out in AAA as 6th/ 7th/ 8th starters.

I really hope Manning/ Skubal/ Mize/ Jobe/ Turnbull can find their way into those top 3 spots in a future Tigers rotation. Maybe Eduardo is already a top 3 guy. At least a couple of those guys I think we all hope make it to the top of the rotation. And I don't expect all 5 of those guys to make it. But... in order to finish out the rotation, if one of those guys gets traded/ FA/ injured/ can't cut it... we turn to the Wentz/ Brieske/ Madden/ Olson/ Flores/ Hill types and hope that at least a couple of those guys can hang in MLB and pitch well enough to hold onto those 4th and 5th starter spots. Or be available at AAA to pop up during the season a few times for a few starts... as needed.

But I'm just thinking out loud here... About our future that is.

[1984Echoes]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... Where I differ is with Flores in particular... Flores is, by all accounts, a borderline Top 100 guy. BA actually has him ranked 90 on their Top 100. And now, apparently Jim Bowden sees him as a possible Top 50 guy in the upcoming year...

If you look at Flores scouting grades though you can see where Micro is exactly correct.

He's a two-pitch pitcher with a really nice curveball and fastball. But everything else is a below-average pitch. He'll need to develop a changeup or something else as a 3rd pitch to keep hitters honest/ survive in MLB as a starter. And as Micro said, his command and control are not good enough yet. So that's back-end starter or pushed into the BP.

Which doesn't change anything on Bowden seeing him as a possible top 50 guy... it falls right back on development: both on the individual to develop these skills and on the Org being able to facilitate that development...

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

He's a two-pitch pitcher with a really nice curveball and fastball. But everything else is a below-average pitch. He'll need to develop a changeup or something else as a 3rd pitch to keep hitters honest/ survive in MLB as a starter. And as Micro said, his command and control are not good enough yet. So that's back-end starter or pushed into the BP.

All in line with what I have read.

The lack of third pitching thing reminds me a lot of Matt Manning... good stuff, but it's hard to survive MLB as a starter without at least three pitches.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

All in line with what I have read.

The lack of third pitching thing reminds me a lot of Matt Manning... good stuff, but it's hard to survive MLB as a starter without at least three pitches.

Exactly correct (and I stated that too, in the next paragraph...).

[microline133]

One of the keys to reading national prospect lists is to understand where their information comes from. Both Bowden and BA are heavily reliant on internal org sources and org assessments (hint, orgs tend to pump their own players when they talk to the media), as opposed to external sources/assessments. I would wager they have Flores significantly higher than other outlets when off-season lists release, simply because of where the data is coming from....more observation heavy, broader sourced, or data heavy lists are unlikely to have him nearly as high. That doesn't mean one is right or wrong, just that these lists have bias and it helps to know where it is given the outlet.