Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[RandyMarsh]

4 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

Law has a bunch of contacts in the industry having worked in a front office before. So the Tigers may be a weaker spot for him, knowledge wise. Plus he may be factoring in the Tiger inability to develop hitters.

About the last part, I asked him once if the organization's history of developing certain positions or attributes effect his view on a prospect and he said he doesnt factor that in at all in his grades. 

[buddha]

no one person is going to have that deep of a knowledge of the thousands of players in the minor leagues of baseball based on five or ten minutes of watching them play and a look at their box score stats.

that's all keith law is.

hey, its fun.  i like to read about it, but im not going to get bent out of shape about it.

one thing is for sure: the prior tigers regime was terrible at identifying and developing talent.  as long as they were in charge the tigers were going nowhere.  now we have a new regime and we have hope again.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, buddha said:

one thing is for sure: the prior tigers regime was terrible at identifying and developing talent.

The Faedo story is really depressing to read. At one point Avila seemed to be going in the right direction  - he had the Tigers working with some bio-mechanics people at UM, but either they picked to wrong people to talk to, balked at the bill, or whatever; that effort obviously came to nothing.

[gehringer_2]

The other one that sort of floored me is that they've decided Haase sets up a *foot* further back than he should. How can coaches not notice if a guy a fricking foot further back than other guys? How does a guy spend 6-7 yrs in the minors and nobody says to him, "you know kid, some of those breaking balls you receive would still be in the zone if you caught them a little closer to the plate." And this wasn't even the Tiger org, but Cleveland, who are supposed to be pretty on the ball, right? It's hard to escape the feeling that most of the time these poor guys spend in the minors is totally wasted for them.

[Stanley70]

Keith Law, Baseball America, etc comes up with their team lists through conversations with numerous scouts employed by teams. That is where they get the lions share of their information. If he doesn't like Tigers prospects as much as you think he should it's probably because that is what he is hearing from other scouts. 

It is just for entertainment, and is basically obsolete a month after it is written. 

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

Keith Law, Baseball America, etc comes up with their team lists through conversations with numerous scouts employed by teams. That is where they get the lions share of their information. If he doesn't like Tigers prospects as much as you think he should it's probably because that is what he is hearing from other scouts. 

It is just for entertainment, and is basically obsolete a month after it is written. 

Reading how awful the Tigers’ (lack of) prospect development is some kind of morbid entertainment.

[Jim Cowan]

1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said:

The other one that sort of floored me is that they've decided Haase sets up a *foot* further back than he should. How can coaches not notice if a guy a fricking foot further back than other guys? How does a guy spend 6-7 yrs in the minors and nobody says to him, "you know kid, some of those breaking balls you receive would still be in the zone if you caught them a little closer to the plate." And this wasn't even the Tiger org, but Cleveland, who are supposed to be pretty on the ball, right? It's hard to escape the feeling that most of the time these poor guys spend in the minors is totally wasted for them.

I think that the minor league coaches in Bull Durham were right on the money.

[mtutiger]

2 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

Keith Law, Baseball America, etc comes up with their team lists through conversations with numerous scouts employed by teams. That is where they get the lions share of their information. If he doesn't like Tigers prospects as much as you think he should it's probably because that is what he is hearing from other scouts. 

It is just for entertainment, and is basically obsolete a month after it is written. 

Particularly true given the Tigers situation, given how much turnover they have had over the past six months. Law's read on where they are at, just as Kiley McDaniel's or BA's or whoever, is a lagging indicator, and its stands to reason that there is maybe less value in these takes or rankings in the Tigers situation given that it is more of a reflection of the last regime than the current one.

The average fan doesn't follow closely enough to see that, they just see that the situation as it exists today isn't good, so all the "getting bent out of shape" isn't hugely surprising. But as buddha said above, they have new blood, which should at least engender more hope in terms of where they go from here versus if Avila and his cronies were still here.

Edited February 18, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

The other thing buddha got right is suggesting how impossible it is for national guys to pay to all 30 teams in depth, for obvious reasons. They also pay far more attention to what they see in front of the curtain, not what's behind it. Sure, we made a bunch of changes behind the scenes—what does that mean to Keith Law or Dan Szymborski or Jay Jaffe or Mike Petriello or anyone else who has to report on baseball to a national audience? Very little, if it's not one of the Big Six franchises, plus whatever team is a hot commodity at the moment. Any changes there, they are going to take deep dives into. But changes like here in Detroit, or places like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati or Kansas City ... ah, wake me up when they're relevant. It's why when these guys review or project anything about the Tigers, it reads as though nothing has changed here.

 

[mtutiger]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

The other thing buddha got right is suggesting how impossible it is for national guys to pay to all 30 teams in depth, for obvious reasons. They also pay far more attention to what they see in front of the curtain, not what's behind it. Sure, we made a bunch of changes behind the scenes—what does that mean to Keith Law or Dan Szymborski or Jay Jaffe or Mike Petriello or anyone else who has to report on baseball to a national audience? Very little, if it's not one of the Big Six franchises, plus whatever team is a hot commodity at the moment. Any changes there, they are going to take deep dives into. But changes like here in Detroit, or places like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati or Kansas City ... ah, wake me up when they're relevant. It's why when these guys review or project anything about the Tigers, it reads as though nothing has changed here.

 

Even some of the other teams out there in the Tigers class tend to generate more excitement out of the national guys.

I doubt the Royals are much better than the Tigers, in fact both PECOTA and ZiPs put them a little behind the Tigers in terms of 2023 projections. But the Royals have Vinnie Pasquantino who, great as he is, tends to be a figure of hype for the Petriello's of the world. On top of Bobby Witt and others.

Edited February 20, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Even some of the other teams out there in the Tigers class tend to generate more excitement out of the national guys.

I doubt the Royals are much better than the Tigers, in fact both PECOTA and ZiPs put them a little behind the Tigers in terms of 2023 projections. But the Royals have Vinnie Pasquantino who, great as he is, tends to be a figure of hype for the Petriello's of the world. On top of Bobby Witt and others.

Apropos of not much, the Royals also have a sort of traditional sabermetric cred as quite a few of the early guys were Royals fans: Bill James, Rob Neyer, Rany Jazayleri, I think maybe one or two others.

[RatkoVarda]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

FG Top 100ish out; Keith 76; Flores 82; Olson 87; Jobe 110

(Lawler 15, Mayer 18)

[Tenacious D]

54 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

FG Top 100ish out; Keith 76; Flores 82; Olson 87; Jobe 110

(Lawler 15, Mayer 18)

Not a great look for our last two 1st rounders

[LongLiveMaroth]

55 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

FG Top 100ish out; Keith 76; Flores 82; Olson 87; Jobe 110

(Lawler 15, Mayer 18)

Honestly, Olson being in front of Jobe is surprising especially given his probable move to the bullpen. 

[chasfh]

Jobe hasn't been flashing top 100 stuff. Previous regime probably set him back a couple years. I'll be interested in seeing where he is on the list a year from now, after the new regime has their go at him.

Edited February 22, 2023 by chasfh

[RatkoVarda]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Not a great look for our last two 1st rounders

Neto, one pick after Jung, slotted by FG at 61. Thanks Al.

[buddha]

i hope i am wrong, but that jobe pick looks worse by the day.

its way too early for me think anything like that, and chas is right that we should let the new regime work with him before we make any judgments, but given Al's track record, i dont have good vibes.

[RandyMarsh]

The Jobe pick was a head scratcher at the time and is looking even more like one now. I tried to justify it at the time or atleast tried to see what Avila was thinking but even as much as I tried it was still hard to defend. I think the thinking was that Mayer/Lawlar would cost too much and they could get Jobe at a discount and get another premium player(s) with the 32nd and/or 39th pick. 

The thing is that Mayer signed for slot at 4 and Jobe was just under so at most the Tigers saved about 300K by picking him over Mayer, to me that wasn't nearly enough to take on the risk of a HS pitcher and passing on an up the middle prospect. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[RatkoVarda]

FG has both Mayer and Lawler as impact ML players, even more so if they stay at SS. Thanks Al.

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

FG has both Mayer and Lawler as impact ML players, even more so if they stay at SS. Thanks Al.

I have to guess the assumption neither could stay at short is what led Al to look elsewhere, but that still doesn't explain how you get to a HS pitcher from there.

[Tigermojo]

So they could sign Ty Madden for $2.5 million. #4 prospect pitched well last year.

[mtutiger]

One gets the sense that Jobe could eventually end up an All Star, front line starter in baseball and there'd still be people talking about Marcelo Mayer.

I get why people do it, but it's over. The pick happened. And the guy who picked him isn't even here anymore.

Let's hope he can build on some of the small successes he had at the end of last season and progress forward in 2023 under the new staff.

Edited February 23, 2023 by mtutiger

[gehringer_2]

38 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One gets the sense that Jobe could eventually end up an All Star, front line starter in baseball and there'd still be people talking about Marcelo Mayer.

I get why people do it, but it's over. The pick happened. And the guy who picked him isn't even here anymore.

Let's hope he can build on some of the small successes he had at the end of last season and progress forward in 2023 under the new staff.

There is probably something to be said for stockpiling high upside HS'ers - That's where a lot of the star players should emerge because a good professional minor league experience should drive their development further, faster than college ball. The emphasis there on the word *should*. The thing is, when you're as far behind as the Tigers are, doing that is a luxury compared to picking somewhat more predictable college players with higher proven floors.

Edited February 23, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tenacious D]

I think it’s fair to compare Mayer and Jobe, but it’s ridiculous to suggest that Jobe is a bust.

I am way more concerned with Jung.

[Cruzer1]

Also should be giving credit to Al for Keith, Flores and Olson. All great pickups for low prices.