Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[1984Echoes]

5 hours ago, Timmitch55 said:

Bigbie will open for the Tigers. Keith and Malloy also. 

SKUBAL Mize Manning Olson and Hurter are your starters.

We need a 3B. Jung for Coby Mayo

 

Also...

NO.

Hurter is NOT an opening day 2024 starter for Detroit.

[1984Echoes]

51 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If a guy hits it changes a lot of possibilities. Now it's certainly granted that the bat we were seeing at the end of 2023 may not show up again next Spring. That's a better than even money chance with any minor leaguer who had a hot streak. But if it does you never want to say never.

I don't think he beats out anyone ahead of him.

If Bigbie makes the opening day roster, we had a crapload of injuries in ST.

Otherwise, I'm saying never for Bigbie on the opening day roster 2024.

Same with Hurter... if you note my most recent post just above...

[Jim Cowan]

Malloy is an absolute lock.  His OBP increased with every level that he moved up, and now in 2023 he hit 23 HR's in fewer than 500 AB's.  He is going to lead off, in the hope that his .417 OBP in Triple A translates into about .370 in MLB, with power.  They will try to hide him in LF twice a week, on the road, but he is the every day leadoff hitter, mostly at DH. He's exactly the same amount of "lock" that Keith is, and he doesn't need to play well in the spring.  He's on the team.

[Tigermojo]

That would make him a top 15 player in MLB.

[1984Echoes]

34 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Malloy is an absolute lock.  His OBP increased with every level that he moved up, and now in 2023 he hit 23 HR's in fewer than 500 AB's.  He is going to lead off, in the hope that his .417 OBP in Triple A translates into about .370 in MLB, with power.  They will try to hide him in LF twice a week, on the road, but he is the every day leadoff hitter, mostly at DH. He's exactly the same amount of "lock" that Keith is, and he doesn't need to play well in the spring.  He's on the team.

The only problem with this, and generally, I agree with you...

Is that Riley Greene might be 100% DH the first month or two...

I don't think he will be so that's not a block on Malloy... but that's the only argument as of today I believe that makes sense against Malloy on the opening day roster.

But I think, otherwise, that Malloy is pretty much a definite (I just don't want to commit to 100%) and, just as you've outlined, in the #1 Lineup spot, leading off, Day 1.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

Malloy is an absolute lock.  His OBP increased with every level that he moved up, and now in 2023 he hit 23 HR's in fewer than 500 AB's.  He is going to lead off, in the hope that his .417 OBP in Triple A translates into about .370 in MLB, with power.  They will try to hide him in LF twice a week, on the road, but he is the every day leadoff hitter, mostly at DH. He's exactly the same amount of "lock" that Keith is, and he doesn't need to play well in the spring.  He's on the team.

I think a young hitter whose game depends so much on drawing walks might struggle initially in the majors where he'll probably walk a lot less. So, I am tempering my expectations for him.  370 with power sounds really ambitious.  I really hope he does well though because the Tigers haven't had many players with good on base skills.  

[Edman85]

It is worth pointing out Nick Maton OBP'ed .414 in AAA this year. Tyler Nevin .400.

The pretacked ball, ABS, and rash of pitcher injuries across the sport really juiced the offense in AAA to the point that needs to be factored into any "translations."

Edited October 16, 2023 by Edman85

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Edman85 said:

It is worth pointing out Nick Maton OBP'ed .414 in AAA this year. Tyler Nevin .400.

its a fair point - not all MiLB OPS that are equal are equivalent. All hitters have strengths and weaknesses to some degree, but you can still do well in the minors with weaknesses that will doom you in the majors while another guy may do less well in the minors but have a lower drop off on promotion because he is less exploitable by higher level pitching. Maton cannot hit offspeed, C. Stewart couldn't catch up to MLB velo, etc.  This is the kind of thing that the good evaluators in successful orgs were able to recognize even before they had all the metrics.

And then there are some guys that drop off when they are called up and you get the impression it's more that they have more trouble getting over their rookie nerves. I'd guess Paredes was an example of that - but he got over it. Maybe Torkelson was in that class as well. In '22 it  always seemed to me that his biggest problem was that he had to get over being tentative. I think he got better mostly as he began to trust himself to grip it and rip it. Makes you wonder how many guys maybe had a good hitter in there somewhere but never got the rope to get there in the majors. You can't blame the teams that much, you can't wait on a guy forever, but you still wonder.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Dan Gilmore]

So for the scouts/pros that have watched Malloy at AA and AAA, does he seem to have a weakness that would be significantly exploited in the bigs? No crystal balls of course, but hints?

[Toddwert]

45 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

So for the scouts/pros that have watched Malloy at AA and AAA, does he seem to have a weakness that would be significantly exploited in the bigs? No crystal balls of course, but hints?

defense.

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

defense.

Bad defense can be hidden, up to a point.

[Shinzaki]

Is Malloy worse than Delmon was?  Because he seems to have a better bat...potentially.  Although Delmon's "potential" suggested  possible MVP level career...so who knows. Damn...kinda talking in circles here

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Is Malloy worse than Delmon was?  Because he seems to have a better bat...potentially.  Although Delmon's "potential" suggested  possible MVP level career...so who knows. Damn...kinda talking in circles here

Delmon played parts of 2 seasons in AAA as a 19-20 yr old and hit 315, which is 25 pt better than Malloy as a 23 yr old. The difference is that Delmon never walked and Malloy does, so Malloy's OBP/OPS is higher. But as Edman pointed out, *if* walks are less available to Malloy at MLB level, then batting average may count more relatively when trying to compare across different pitching levels. It's a lot of variables, which is why performance level drops across leagues are hard to predict!

[Dan Gilmore]

Sorry, my question was meant to only apply to batting-I know the glove is poor.

[Tigermojo]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/big-hype-prospects-flores-manzardo-bliss-montgomery-hassell.html

 

From big hype prospects on mlbtraderumors:

"Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET

(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

 

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

 

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns."

[Tiger337]

Another guy who had a .400 OBP in his MILB career...Chris Shelton.  

[gehringer_2]

48 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/big-hype-prospects-flores-manzardo-bliss-montgomery-hassell.html

 

From big hype prospects on mlbtraderumors:

"Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET

(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

 

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

 

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns."

you would think if the Tigers can't get him to his optimal pitch design he's got real problems.

[KL2]

On 10/15/2023 at 1:55 PM, Timmitch55 said:

Bigbie will open for the Tigers. Keith and Malloy also. 

SKUBAL Mize Manning Olson and Hurter are your starters.

We need a 3B. Jung for Coby Mayo

 

All of that sounds like a disaster

[Shinzaki]

I predict Jobe will make a 2024 start for Detroit before Hurter.  

Edited October 17, 2023 by Shinzaki

[Tenacious D]

2 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

I predict Jobe will make a 2024 start for Detroit before Hurter.  

If we need either in 2024, then everyone got hurt again, unless it’s for expanded rosters.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

If we need either in 2024, then everyone got hurt again, unless it’s for expanded rosters.

Atlanta had 10 pitchers start at least 5 games this season.  Texas and Philadelphia had 8.  We are well rehearsed with what Detroit went through.  MLB teams simply need that SP depth in AAA.  That's just where we are at with the game now.

Hurter just turned 25 and has 28 starts in AA.  If he's still in the organization, he's probably looking at AAA to begin 2024.  At 25 already, the clock is probably ticking.

Flores is due to be added to the 40 and he has 37 starts in AA.  There may have been some disappointment with him last season, but I'd have to think he'll also be in Toledo at some point next season.

Ideally, Harris acquires enough SP where Gipson-Long is in Toledo to start the season.  This would assume Mize is healthy enough to start in Detroit, they have Manning in the rotation and/or replaced him with a viable SP, and Olson is at the end of the Detroit rotation.  They're probably going to need to acquire another project/prospect to stash in AA/AAA as well.

I have no idea what becomes of Turnbull.

[Tenacious D]

20 minutes ago, casimir said:

Atlanta had 10 pitchers start at least 5 games this season.  Texas and Philadelphia had 8.  We are well rehearsed with what Detroit went through.  MLB teams simply need that SP depth in AAA.  That's just where we are at with the game now.

Hurter just turned 25 and has 28 starts in AA.  If he's still in the organization, he's probably looking at AAA to begin 2024.  At 25 already, the clock is probably ticking.

Flores is due to be added to the 40 and he has 37 starts in AA.  There may have been some disappointment with him last season, but I'd have to think he'll also be in Toledo at some point next season.

Ideally, Harris acquires enough SP where Gipson-Long is in Toledo to start the season.  This would assume Mize is healthy enough to start in Detroit, they have Manning in the rotation and/or replaced him with a viable SP, and Olson is at the end of the Detroit rotation.  They're probably going to need to acquire another project/prospect to stash in AA/AAA as well.

I have no idea what becomes of Turnbull.

Here’s where I was coming from:

Skubal

Erod/free agent replacement 

Mize

Turnbull

Manning

Olsen

Gipson-Long

Brieske

Faedo

Flores/Madden/Hurter

Jobe

 

 

[Tiger337]

46 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Here’s where I was coming from:

Skubal

Erod/free agent replacement 

Mize

Turnbull

Manning

Olsen

Gipson-Long

Brieske

Faedo

Flores/Madden/Hurter

Jobe

 

 

At this point, I would put Turnbull down there with Brieske and Faedo.  Also, I probably trust Olsen more than anyone else other than Skubal.  There are still questions about him over a full season, but he is healthier and has had more recent success than all the other question marks.  

[Shinzaki]

I would definitely not be counting on Turnbull to start.  I would go into 2024 assuming he's a long RP...if he makes it through camp healthy.  I think Faedo and Brieske are going to be key pieces in the bull pen

[1984Echoes]

15 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

you would think if the Tigers can't get him to his optimal pitch design he's got real problems.

You can hide problems like that in the BP though...

Shorter stints let less keying in on a pitchers' faults, as long as there are enough other positive aspects. I don't know how problematic the tunneling is; it may allow an easier read on his different pitches. But the other thing in the BP is he can let it rip more than trying to pace as a starter. An extra couple MPH may offset the easier reads on tunneling. The BP also usually limits repertoire to a reliever's two best pitches rather than a "use all 4 or 5 pitches mentality" as a starter.

I think this could all be shortened to:

I think he'll be fine as a 2-3 inning reliever; better than he would be as a starter.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by 1984Echoes