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Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)


gehringer_2

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9 hours ago, Edman85 said:

So much of Rogers' value is wrapped up in his framing. It takes a huge hit if there is any semblance of robo-zone next year.

That's true.

If they were to resign Kelly, they would seem to be set at C for a few years with Kelly at however long he is signed and Rogers who can be held for 3 more seasons.  Add in Dingler who can be added to the 40 and has minor league options, and maybe they would be comfortable at C.  I don't know that sitting back on that as a default kind of position is wise, but maybe that continuity behind the plate with Fetter as coach and Skubal and Olson as a primary duo in the rotation can be foundational base for the other arms that will be in and out over the next few seasons.  That might be particularly useful for the pitching prospects coming up.

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11 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

... how far you go to keep Kelly if you believe he will be a better catcher/hitter going forward

If any decent-or-better prospect is offered for Kelly then trade him.

Want him on the team from 2025 until... whenever (2 or 3 years)?

Defer that decision until the offseason IMO.

Trade him. Call up Dingler for the remaining season. Decide this offseason what to do...

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I feel differently about Flaherty. If he were willing to sign an extension before the deadline and agreed to one with the Tigers, I would be good with that.

If he were traded for a great package and we re-signed him in the offseason, I would be good with that too. The only thing being, there's a greater risk of losing him as a FA. I prefer the bird in the hand, and I would prefer Flaherty to be in our rotation for at least the next few years rather than not.

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

That's true.

If they were to resign Kelly, they would seem to be set at C for a few years with Kelly at however long he is signed and Rogers who can be held for 3 more seasons.  Add in Dingler who can be added to the 40 and has minor league options, and maybe they would be comfortable at C.  I don't know that sitting back on that as a default kind of position is wise, but maybe that continuity behind the plate with Fetter as coach and Skubal and Olson as a primary duo in the rotation can be foundational base for the other arms that will be in and out over the next few seasons.  That might be particularly useful for the pitching prospects coming up.

Back to the Maeda point, it does not do this. If they decline in that time to become unplayable, you have not addressed the catcher situation and are stuck with somebody on the roster who shouldn't be.

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7 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Back to the Maeda point, it does not do this. If they decline in that time to become unplayable, you have not addressed the catcher situation and are stuck with somebody on the roster who shouldn't be.

They signed Maeda to two years because they were betting that he would be good and he wasn't willing to sign for one year.  The same would apply to Kelly.  They aren't going to extend him if they expect him to become unplayable.  I do agree they probably wouldn't go three years on him.  

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2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Back to the Maeda point, it does not do this. If they decline in that time to become unplayable, you have not addressed the catcher situation and are stuck with somebody on the roster who shouldn't be.

This is ridiculous.  We should avoid signing players to more than a one year deal because they might decline?  I’ll defer to our front office to make that determination.  Not every signing/extension pans out, but that’s professional sports.

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5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

This is ridiculous.  We should avoid signing players to more than a one year deal because they might decline?  I’ll defer to our front office to make that determination.  Not every signing/extension pans out, but that’s professional sports.

Part of the thing in baseball is that because of the CBA structure, a lot of guys don't come to market until they are already close to their sell-by dates, and hitting is a skill that can disappear in a hurry when father time flips the right genetic switches for a guy. Enough guys start falling off the cliff at just about 32 that anyone over 30 might be a risk at over 2 yrs. A good number of hitters do get to 35 OK, but then past that anybody still performing well with a bat is going to be an outlier. Pitchers go a few years longer, but with them the constant risk is already so high that age doesn't add as much additional risk as for hitters.

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12 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Back to the Maeda point, it does not do this. If they decline in that time to become unplayable, you have not addressed the catcher situation and are stuck with somebody on the roster who shouldn't be.

What are the odds Kelly becomes unplayable within two seasons?  What kind of contract would he command?

Edited by casimir
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1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

The odds Kelly becomes unplayable within two seasons? 30-50%?

I honestly don’t know.  I find myself flip flopping on Kelly.  Two guaranteed seasons would be my end point.

One thing that the Tigers have had the past few seasons is durability catching health.  I don’t think they’ve dipped into 3rd catchers being called up much at all.  At some point that string will break (pardon the pun).  Neither Kelly nor Rogers are young, so a bit of a breakdown wouldn’t be too surprising.

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