Tiger Cubs (notes on the minors)

[Jim Cowan]

42 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

K rates like Workman's normally don't bode well for the ability to level up to even tougher pitching, but there are always a few guys that play against the norms. I just wouldn't count on it. He's still more a 'project' than a 'prospect.'

Yeah, generally speaking guys who strike out at ridiculously high rates just keep on doing it.  I don't know if he is on any top 30 lists but I don't think I'd put him on one.  The Tigers disagree or else he wouldn't be at AFL.

[apabruce]

Keith appears to play every other day in the AFL.  Does anyone know why?

[RatkoVarda]

SR has 9 infielders (had 10 but Jordan Lawler left); someone is sitting every day; Keith is getting 2b and 3b starts; maybe the Tigers asked for that; and asked for caution regarding workload.

[microline133]

On 10/26/2022 at 11:49 AM, Jim Cowan said:

Yeah, generally speaking guys who strike out at ridiculously high rates just keep on doing it.  I don't know if he is on any top 30 lists but I don't think I'd put him on one.  The Tigers disagree or else he wouldn't be at AFL.

I wanted to circle back to this, not because of anything with Workman in particular, but the bolded part grazes the edges of something I think is important for fans to understand about the AFL.

There's a lot that goes into AFL roster assignments, including a lot of restrictions, that drive the assignments and make reading into them nearly meaningless.

For example, there are heavy restrictions on the assignment of foreign-born players, and even if they are assigned, their winter club (LIDOM, etc) often has the trump card to pull them from the AFL early. In addition, because of the typical level of play, you're not sending anyone at the lower levels....usually High-A is the lowest experience level you would send, and even that used to require a waiver (not sure if it still does). On top of that, your pitchers had their workload programs designed to get whatever innings/pitches/stress they wanted that year based on the regular season, not with something like the AFL in mind because it is too far out and things change.

So, at the end of the day, by the time you remove Rookie-level, Low-A, and most High-A players, then remove most of the foreign-born players, and then remove the pitchers that have reached workload restrictions (and this can apply to players, particularly catchers, as well), then your prospective player pool is quite small. You're talking a portion of your Double-A and Triple-A players, and a smaller subset of High-A players. If you set out looking for six guys to send to the AFL, you're probably starting with guys that were injured this year (Wentz/Keith) and then moving onto guys that probably aren't high-end prospects.

 

[Jim Cowan]

30 minutes ago, microline133 said:

I wanted to circle back to this, not because of anything with Workman in particular, but the bolded part grazes the edges of something I think is important for fans to understand about the AFL.

There's a lot that goes into AFL roster assignments, including a lot of restrictions, that drive the assignments and make reading into them nearly meaningless.

For example, there are heavy restrictions on the assignment of foreign-born players, and even if they are assigned, their winter club (LIDOM, etc) often has the trump card to pull them from the AFL early. In addition, because of the typical level of play, you're not sending anyone at the lower levels....usually High-A is the lowest experience level you would send, and even that used to require a waiver (not sure if it still does). On top of that, your pitchers had their workload programs designed to get whatever innings/pitches/stress they wanted that year based on the regular season, not with something like the AFL in mind because it is too far out and things change.

So, at the end of the day, by the time you remove Rookie-level, Low-A, and most High-A players, then remove most of the foreign-born players, and then remove the pitchers that have reached workload restrictions (and this can apply to players, particularly catchers, as well), then your prospective player pool is quite small. You're talking a portion of your Double-A and Triple-A players, and a smaller subset of High-A players. If you set out looking for six guys to send to the AFL, you're probably starting with guys that were injured this year (Wentz/Keith) and then moving onto guys that probably aren't high-end prospects.

 

Good stuff, thanks.

[Edman85]

FYI, a lot of those restrictions are no longer in place as of 2019. See here

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/arizona-fall-league-az-instructional-league

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, microline133 said:

I wanted to circle back to this, not because of anything with Workman in particular, but the bolded part grazes the edges of something I think is important for fans to understand about the AFL.

There's a lot that goes into AFL roster assignments, including a lot of restrictions, that drive the assignments and make reading into them nearly meaningless.

For example, there are heavy restrictions on the assignment of foreign-born players, and even if they are assigned, their winter club (LIDOM, etc) often has the trump card to pull them from the AFL early. In addition, because of the typical level of play, you're not sending anyone at the lower levels....usually High-A is the lowest experience level you would send, and even that used to require a waiver (not sure if it still does). On top of that, your pitchers had their workload programs designed to get whatever innings/pitches/stress they wanted that year based on the regular season, not with something like the AFL in mind because it is too far out and things change.

So, at the end of the day, by the time you remove Rookie-level, Low-A, and most High-A players, then remove most of the foreign-born players, and then remove the pitchers that have reached workload restrictions (and this can apply to players, particularly catchers, as well), then your prospective player pool is quite small. You're talking a portion of your Double-A and Triple-A players, and a smaller subset of High-A players. If you set out looking for six guys to send to the AFL, you're probably starting with guys that were injured this year (Wentz/Keith) and then moving onto guys that probably aren't high-end prospects.

 

Do teams use it as an evaluation tool for a potential last look at a player before they need to decide to protect them on the 40-man roster?

[microline133]

4 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Do teams use it as an evaluation tool for a potential last look at a player before they need to decide to protect them on the 40-man roster?

Sort of...mostly in cases where the player missed time that year. The sample of observation isn't significant enough in the AFL to outweigh the rest of the season, so it would be pretty limited circumstances where the AFL is influencing the decision making.

[microline133]

16 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

FYI, a lot of those restrictions are no longer in place as of 2019. See here

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/arizona-fall-league-az-instructional-league

Good catch. I hadn't been following that.

Even with the loosening if restrictions, teams still have to weigh the AFL assignment of a foreign-born player against the fact that they are going to play winter ball, most likely. Does the team want them getting rest for a month or so, before winter ball, or is the AFL somehow more important than rest.

[Edman85]

Just now, microline133 said:

Good catch. I hadn't been following that.

Even with the loosening if restrictions, teams still have to weigh the AFL assignment of a foreign-born player against the fact that they are going to play winter ball, most likely. Does the team want them getting rest for a month or so, before winter ball, or is the AFL somehow more important than rest.

I also suspect teams like to hide players they want to try to slip through the Rule 5.

[apabruce]

1 hour ago, microline133 said:

Good catch. I hadn't been following that.

Even with the loosening if restrictions, teams still have to weigh the AFL assignment of a foreign-born player against the fact that they are going to play winter ball, most likely. Does the team want them getting rest for a month or so, before winter ball, or is the AFL somehow more important than rest.

Thanks for your input, Mark.  Are you and Paul, or separately, considering some resurrection of TigsTown?

[microline133]

6 hours ago, apabruce said:

Thanks for your input, Mark.  Are you and Paul, or separately, considering some resurrection of TigsTown?

No discussion to date of bringing TigsTown back. Never say never, but I'm not sure either of us has the time in our day to day lives to make it work. It's a ton of effort.

I've toyed with the idea of a new podcast the last year or so, but it'd have to be the perfect scenario.

[RatkoVarda]

Lawler injured again. You can imagine the negativity if Avila had picked him over Jobe.

 

[Cruzer1]

Right now, I think Keith is the Tigers best prospect, and I can see him hitting 3rd in a top AL lineup down the road. 

[RandyMarsh]

On 11/1/2022 at 5:03 AM, Cruzer1 said:

Right now, I think Keith is the Tigers best prospect, and I can see him hitting 3rd in a top AL lineup down the road. 

Tigers Minor League Report just came out with their top 25 and they agree with you about Keith being number 1.

https://tigersmlreport.com/2022/11/03/detroit-tigers-top-25-prospects/

[Cruzer1]

This is for subscribers, and is more Keith juice...

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2022/11/02/detroit-tigers-adding-more-muscle-with-colt-keiths-245-pounds/69612140007/

[Jim Cowan]

I don't know what I'm talking about but when I see Keith's stance and his swing he actually looks like a hitter to me.

[buddha]

4 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Tigers Minor League Report just came out with their top 25 and they agree with you about Keith being number 1.

https://tigersmlreport.com/2022/11/03/detroit-tigers-top-25-prospects/

seems so....bad.

[Cruzer1]

1 hour ago, buddha said:

seems so....bad.

Keith is a stud. I think he'll be a top 10 prospect on everybody's list later in 23.

[Tenacious D]

Did we screw up the Jung pick?  Is it possible that the guy who can’t field, also won’t hit very well?

[buddha]

45 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Did we screw up the Jung pick?  Is it possible that the guy who can’t field, also won’t hit very well?

yes.

[Jim Cowan]

29 minutes ago, buddha said:

yes.

Sure seems that way.  I don't know anything about college baseball or scouting, but the way they described him on draft day was uninspiring.  It reminded me of my all time favourite first round pick, righthander Cade Gaspar.  The first 2 words in his draft summary were "Not overpowering", and I just said to myself, well Jesus H Christ.

[Shinzaki]

The reports that Jung struggles to handle "velocity" are troubling....

[RatkoVarda]

13 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Did we screw up the Jung pick?  Is it possible that the guy who can’t field, also won’t hit very well?

Neto (next pick to LAA underslot) was doing well at AA (SSS alert); Jung has to hit as he offers little else

wonder if they will start him at WMI or Erie?

[HeyAbbott]

13 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Did we screw up the Jung pick?  Is it possible that the guy who can’t field, also won’t hit very well?

The answer to your question is yes, of course.