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2022 NBA Draft Prelude


Deleterious

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Memphis is a good reminder it isn't just about high picks.  They might have the best young roster in the league.

OK they have Ja and JJJ, both high picks.  Their two next best players are Brooks and Bane.  One taken with the last pick of the first round.  The other taken in the second round.

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That's why I never bought into the folks that essentially say non lottery 1st rounders are worthless. Yeah the likelihood of you finding a superstar with one of those picks is pretty damn small but you can get valuable pieces that could be a third or possibly even 2nd option on a championship caliber team. 

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7 hours ago, Deleterious said:

The general feeling is Sharpe will declare.  At that point the NBA will have to rule if he is eligible or not.

 

He's the most intriguing player of the draft. I know it's just high school footage but he looks all the part of a star, the shot, the athleticism, the handle. I know nothing about his defense but his skillset looks elite.

I thought he was already ruled eligible if I'm not mistaken and it was just a matter of him wanting to declare or not at this point (I have no idea why he wouldn't declare).

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9 hours ago, NYLion said:

He's the most intriguing player of the draft. I know it's just high school footage but he looks all the part of a star, the shot, the athleticism, the handle. I know nothing about his defense but his skillset looks elite.

I thought he was already ruled eligible if I'm not mistaken and it was just a matter of him wanting to declare or not at this point (I have no idea why he wouldn't declare).

I don't think he has been ruled eligible yet.

There was a report from an anonymous source in the league office that he is eligible.  But nothing official as far as I know.

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I think Tankathon is up to date.  Detroit is up a half game on OKC.  So if both lose out it would end in a tie and I have no clue on tiebreakers.  They might just do a coin flip.

Remaining schedules

DET - Mavs, Bucks, @76ers

OKC - POR, @Utah, @Lakers, @Clippers

IND - 76ers, @76ers, @Nets

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12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

I think Tankathon is up to date.  Detroit is up a half game on OKC.  So if both lose out it would end in a tie and I have no clue on tiebreakers.  They might just do a coin flip.

Remaining schedules

DET - Mavs, Bucks, @76ers

OKC - POR, @Utah, @Lakers, @Clippers

IND - 76ers, @76ers, @Nets

Ties split their lottery balls and if there's an odd number of balls it is randomized. (Source: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds)

 

I expect that DAL and MIL will still want to win when we play them...76ers game could go either way by then.

We really need OKC to win against POR at home. That's would lock us into 3rd if we lose out and it's OKC best chance at a win.

My concern is not about the odds of getting top 4, it's about the odds of slipping to 6, 7, 8, or even 9th in this draft. I get that there's no clear cut #1 superstar, but I also don't want to be picking 6-9 after all the losing this season.

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For those of you (like me) who might be disappointed to watch the Pistons slip in the draft lottery standings...

I've been looking at re-drafts of the top 4 players from each draft from 2005 until 2018 (I want to make sure we have at least 3 full seasons so I stopped there) and the data is pretty interesting. I've included all the data below if you want to see it, but here are some findings:

  • Of the 56 total players
    • 33% were from picks 1-3
    • 41% of them came from picks 1-4
    • 59% were picked outside of the top 4
      • 20% came from picks 5-10
      • 16% from picks 11 -15
      • 23% from picks 21-48, showing the importance of late first round and early second round picks that some GMs like to give away
  • Never have the top 4 picks wound up being the top 4 players
    • Only 2 times have 3 of the top 4 picks become the top 4 players of that draft
    • 6 times only 2 players were drafted in the top 4
    • 5 times only 1 player was in the top 4 picks
    • Once (in 2013) none of the top 4 players were drafted 1-4
  • Some data on individual picks...
    • #3 tops the list with 8 players
    • #1 is right behind it, with 7 players
    • Picks #2, #4, and #5 have each yielded 4 of the top 4 players in their draft
    • #8 is the worst. Not once did it yield a top 4 player from 2005-2018

 

----------- Data dump below in case you want to have fun poking around -------------

Year Re-Draft Player Picked
2005 1 Chris Paul 4
2005 2 Deron Williams 3
2005 3 Monta Ellis 40
2005 4 Lou Williams 45
2006 1 LaMarcus Aldridge 2
2006 2 Kyle Lowry 24
2006 3 Paul Milsap 47
2006 4 Rajon Rondo 21
2007 1 KD 2
2007 2 Marc Gasol 48
2007 3 Mike Conley 4
2007 4 Al Horford 3
2008 1 Russell Westbrook 4
2008 2 Kevin Love 5
2008 3 Derrick Rose 1
2008 4 DeAndre Jordan 35
2009 1 Steph Curry 7
2009 2 James Harden 3
2009 3 Blake Griffin 1
2009 4 DeMar DeRozan 9
2010 1 Paul George 10
2010 2 John Wall 1
2010 3 DeMarcus Cousins 5
2010 4 Gordon Hayward 9
2011 1 Kawhi Leonard 15
2011 2 Kyrie Irving 1
2011 3 Jimmy Butler 30
2011 4 Klay Thompson 11
2012 1 AD 1
2012 2 Damian Lillard 6
2012 3 Bradley Beal 3
2012 4 Draymond Green 35
2013 1 Giannis 15
2013 2 Rudy Gobert 27
2013 3 CJ McCollum 10
2013 4 Steven Adams 12
2014 1 Jokic 41
2014 2 Embiid 3
2014 3 Zach Lavine 13
2014 4 Clint Capela 25
2015 1 Devin Booker 13
2015 2 KAT 1
2015 3 Kristaps Porzingis 4
2015 4 Dangelo Russell 2
2016 1 Jaylen Brown 3
2016 2 Jamal Murray 7
2016 3 Pascal Siakam 27
2016 4 Brandon Ingram 2
2017 1 Jayson Tatum 3
2017 2 Donovan Mitchell 13
2017 3 Bam Adebayo 14
2017 4 DeAaron Fox 5
2018 1 Luka 3
2018 2 Trae Young 5
2018 3 SGA 11
2018 4 DeAndre Ayton 1

 

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53 minutes ago, Betrayer said:

For those of you (like me) who might be disappointed to watch the Pistons slip in the draft lottery standings...

I've been looking at re-drafts of the top 4 players from each draft from 2005 until 2018 (I want to make sure we have at least 3 full seasons so I stopped there) and the data is pretty interesting. I've included all the data below if you want to see it, but here are some findings:

  • Of the 56 total players
    • 33% were from picks 1-3
    • 41% of them came from picks 1-4
    • 59% were picked outside of the top 4
      • 20% came from picks 5-10
      • 16% from picks 11 -15
      • 23% from picks 21-48, showing the importance of late first round and early second round picks that some GMs like to give away
  • Never have the top 4 picks wound up being the top 4 players
    • Only 2 times have 3 of the top 4 picks become the top 4 players of that draft
    • 6 times only 2 players were drafted in the top 4
    • 5 times only 1 player was in the top 4 picks
    • Once (in 2013) none of the top 4 players were drafted 1-4
  • Some data on individual picks...
    • #3 tops the list with 8 players
    • #1 is right behind it, with 7 players
    • Picks #2, #4, and #5 have each yielded 4 of the top 4 players in their draft
    • #8 is the worst. Not once did it yield a top 4 player from 2005-2018

 

----------- Data dump below in case you want to have fun poking around -------------

Year Re-Draft Player Picked
2005 1 Chris Paul 4
2005 2 Deron Williams 3
2005 3 Monta Ellis 40
2005 4 Lou Williams 45
2006 1 LaMarcus Aldridge 2
2006 2 Kyle Lowry 24
2006 3 Paul Milsap 47
2006 4 Rajon Rondo 21
2007 1 KD 2
2007 2 Marc Gasol 48
2007 3 Mike Conley 4
2007 4 Al Horford 3
2008 1 Russell Westbrook 4
2008 2 Kevin Love 5
2008 3 Derrick Rose 1
2008 4 DeAndre Jordan 35
2009 1 Steph Curry 7
2009 2 James Harden 3
2009 3 Blake Griffin 1
2009 4 DeMar DeRozan 9
2010 1 Paul George 10
2010 2 John Wall 1
2010 3 DeMarcus Cousins 5
2010 4 Gordon Hayward 9
2011 1 Kawhi Leonard 15
2011 2 Kyrie Irving 1
2011 3 Jimmy Butler 30
2011 4 Klay Thompson 11
2012 1 AD 1
2012 2 Damian Lillard 6
2012 3 Bradley Beal 3
2012 4 Draymond Green 35
2013 1 Giannis 15
2013 2 Rudy Gobert 27
2013 3 CJ McCollum 10
2013 4 Steven Adams 12
2014 1 Jokic 41
2014 2 Embiid 3
2014 3 Zach Lavine 13
2014 4 Clint Capela 25
2015 1 Devin Booker 13
2015 2 KAT 1
2015 3 Kristaps Porzingis 4
2015 4 Dangelo Russell 2
2016 1 Jaylen Brown 3
2016 2 Jamal Murray 7
2016 3 Pascal Siakam 27
2016 4 Brandon Ingram 2
2017 1 Jayson Tatum 3
2017 2 Donovan Mitchell 13
2017 3 Bam Adebayo 14
2017 4 DeAaron Fox 5
2018 1 Luka 3
2018 2 Trae Young 5
2018 3 SGA 11
2018 4 DeAndre Ayton 1

 

Great data and list, it appears that with a couple exceptions like Giannis and Steph you're not going to get yourself a defacto number 1 All NBA guy in the mid to late lottery but you still can get All Star caliber guys.

With us hoping that Cade can be our All NBA getting one of those All Star caliber players would be perfectly fine with me. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Great data and list, it appears that with a couple exceptions like Giannis and Steph you're not going to get yourself a defacto number 1 All NBA guy in the mid to late lottery but you still can get All Star caliber guys.

With us hoping that Cade can be our All NBA getting one of those All Star caliber players would be perfectly fine with me. 

Yep, about half of the Superstar-type guys come from outside of the top 4 like Steph, Kawhi, Lillard, Giannis, and Jokic as well as the next tier of guys like DeRozan, George, Butler, Klay, Booker, Mitchell, Gobert, and Trae. That's before we even get into guys that are borderline All-Stars like Siakam, Murray, Lavine, Green, Lowry, and others.

Point being, you can get a good player outside of the top 4, so I guess we'll have to trust in Weaver to pick us another Bey and not another Hayes.

 

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Supposedly Josh Hart and a pick was the original principle return for Grant that was previously discussed with Portland.

Hey, who knows.  Get that 1st round pick from Portland and there’s another shot at an all star.  Maybe Hart can offer some scoring to help shoulder the load with Cunningham and Bey, or off of the bench as a backcourt mate to Hayes?

What is Frank Jackson’s role going forward?  Is he enough of an outside shooter to compliment Cunningham in the backcourt as a starter if they don’t acquire a starting G in the off-season?  Or is he purely a bench G?  It would seem to me he’s the latter, but I’m open to the idea that they might arrange the combinations based on complimentary skill sets around Cunningham and/or what makes the strongest starting lineup and bench lineup.

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5 hours ago, Betrayer said:

For those of you (like me) who might be disappointed to watch the Pistons slip in the draft lottery standings...

I've been looking at re-drafts of the top 4 players from each draft from 2005 until 2018 (I want to make sure we have at least 3 full seasons so I stopped there) and the data is pretty interesting. I've included all the data below if you want to see it, but here are some findings:

  • Of the 56 total players
    • 33% were from picks 1-3
    • 41% of them came from picks 1-4
    • 59% were picked outside of the top 4
      • 20% came from picks 5-10
      • 16% from picks 11 -15
      • 23% from picks 21-48, showing the importance of late first round and early second round picks that some GMs like to give away
  • Never have the top 4 picks wound up being the top 4 players
    • Only 2 times have 3 of the top 4 picks become the top 4 players of that draft
    • 6 times only 2 players were drafted in the top 4
    • 5 times only 1 player was in the top 4 picks
    • Once (in 2013) none of the top 4 players were drafted 1-4
  • Some data on individual picks...
    • #3 tops the list with 8 players
    • #1 is right behind it, with 7 players
    • Picks #2, #4, and #5 have each yielded 4 of the top 4 players in their draft
    • #8 is the worst. Not once did it yield a top 4 player from 2005-2018

 

----------- Data dump below in case you want to have fun poking around -------------

Year Re-Draft Player Picked
2005 1 Chris Paul 4
2005 2 Deron Williams 3
2005 3 Monta Ellis 40
2005 4 Lou Williams 45
2006 1 LaMarcus Aldridge 2
2006 2 Kyle Lowry 24
2006 3 Paul Milsap 47
2006 4 Rajon Rondo 21
2007 1 KD 2
2007 2 Marc Gasol 48
2007 3 Mike Conley 4
2007 4 Al Horford 3
2008 1 Russell Westbrook 4
2008 2 Kevin Love 5
2008 3 Derrick Rose 1
2008 4 DeAndre Jordan 35
2009 1 Steph Curry 7
2009 2 James Harden 3
2009 3 Blake Griffin 1
2009 4 DeMar DeRozan 9
2010 1 Paul George 10
2010 2 John Wall 1
2010 3 DeMarcus Cousins 5
2010 4 Gordon Hayward 9
2011 1 Kawhi Leonard 15
2011 2 Kyrie Irving 1
2011 3 Jimmy Butler 30
2011 4 Klay Thompson 11
2012 1 AD 1
2012 2 Damian Lillard 6
2012 3 Bradley Beal 3
2012 4 Draymond Green 35
2013 1 Giannis 15
2013 2 Rudy Gobert 27
2013 3 CJ McCollum 10
2013 4 Steven Adams 12
2014 1 Jokic 41
2014 2 Embiid 3
2014 3 Zach Lavine 13
2014 4 Clint Capela 25
2015 1 Devin Booker 13
2015 2 KAT 1
2015 3 Kristaps Porzingis 4
2015 4 Dangelo Russell 2
2016 1 Jaylen Brown 3
2016 2 Jamal Murray 7
2016 3 Pascal Siakam 27
2016 4 Brandon Ingram 2
2017 1 Jayson Tatum 3
2017 2 Donovan Mitchell 13
2017 3 Bam Adebayo 14
2017 4 DeAaron Fox 5
2018 1 Luka 3
2018 2 Trae Young 5
2018 3 SGA 11
2018 4 DeAndre Ayton 1

 

was 2005 the first 'one and done' year? 

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4 hours ago, Betrayer said:

Yep, about half of the Superstar-type guys come from outside of the top 4 like Steph, Kawhi, Lillard, Giannis, and Jokic as well as the next tier of guys like DeRozan, George, Butler, Klay, Booker, Mitchell, Gobert, and Trae. That's before we even get into guys that are borderline All-Stars like Siakam, Murray, Lavine, Green, Lowry, and others.

Point being, you can get a good player outside of the top 4, so I guess we'll have to trust in Weaver to pick us another Bey and not another Hayes.

 

Pretty much, especially in a draft like this where there's a greater chance that the best player comes from outside the top 4 than a normal draft.

Also, as has been mentioned ad nauseum, the odds of finishing top 4 are largely unchanged from 1-4 so the only real effect from dropping a few spots is a greater chance of finishing 5-7 which really isn't a big deal (8 is virtually impossible unless they pass Indiana too so top 7 is pretty much guaranteed). They're going to need the luck of the lottery balls regardless of where they finish.

I think there's an outside of chance of finishing 3rd after OKC shockingly won last night. They play the G League Blazers at home and the L.A. teams who should have nothing to play for so you'd think that they can squeeze out a win while the Pistons play the Mavs and Bucks who will almost certainly have something to play for (Sixers probably not though) so I think 3 is still very much in play.

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Yea, I'm hoping for an OKC win tonight, which could seal the deal.

I'm also hoping for the Portland trade to come through on draft night to give us a second lottery pick. My guess is that Weaver didn't see a point in rushing to make the trade before knowing where the pick would land or if protections would push it down the road a year or more (New Orleans pick only conveys between 5 and 14). On draft night, all cards will be on the table and Portland needs Grant to help rebuild around Lillard in a hurry.

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