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2022 NBA Draft Prelude


Deleterious

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12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Every team, and every PG, in the league wants an athletic rim running lob catcher.  Especially one with good hands like Koloko.  Toss in that he offers great rim protection and a little ability to guard the perimeter and he has a lot of value, especially if you draft him in the 20's.  

Guys like Koloko will always have a spot in the NBA.  This isn't some dinosaur like Greg Monroe who cant move his feet.  That is the guy who was born 15 years late.

I agree with what you are a saying. I’m just not sure he’s that athletic.   He’s got a good frame but is very clunky and lacks fluidity on offense.    I see his only real value on defense. 

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48 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

I agree with what you are a saying. I’m just not sure he’s that athletic.   He’s got a good frame but is very clunky and lacks fluidity on offense.    I see his only real value on defense. 

He isn't an explosive jumper, but he doesn't need to be at that height and with his massive reach.  We are also talking about a guy I think will go around 20.  Guys in that range always have flaws.

Some more from Givony:

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Offensively, Koloko has taken a major step forward with his skill level and awareness as well, showing a knack for operating out of ball-screens and hand-offs while providing a steady presence as a lob-catcher thanks to his huge standing reach and improved hands and touch.

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With his 7-4 wingspan, much improved 230-pound frame and outstanding mobility, Koloko is the anchor of Arizona’s staunch defense and is demonstrating impressive versatility covering ground on the perimeter as well as rotating to contest and block shots around the rim.

 

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I'm not really interested in Paulo or Chet, but if we get one of them, I'll hope for the best.

I don't have faith that Chet will be anything more than an oddity who well underperforms his draft position. Paulo, on the other hand, I think will be the type of player that puts up enough regular season numbers against certain types of competition that it takes your franchise too long to realize he's not good enough (Drummond syndrome).

Can you imagine a lineup of Cade, Brunson, Bey, Paulo, and Stew? That has to be the least athletic lineup in the entire league.

I'd prefer Smith, Ivey, Sharpe, or Mathurin. If we wind up getting Chet or Paulo with our pick, I truly hope we get Portland's pick to add whichever of these athletic guards is available (Smith will be gone by then).

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Sam Vecenie released his big board 4.0 today.  Strictly a top prospect list, no team needs taken into account.

https://theathletic.com/3277809/2022/05/02/2022-nba-draft-big-board-jabari-smith-chet-holmgren/

  1. Jabari Smith Jr.
  2. Chet Holmgren
  3. Paolo Banchero
  4. Jaden Ivey
  5. Keegan Murray
  6. Benedict Mathurin
  7. Shaedon Sharpe
  8. AJ Griffin
  9. Jeremy Sochan
  10. Dyson Daniels

 

Edited by Deleterious
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Givony released his about a week ago.  Interest to see the differences.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/33795097/2022-nba-mock-draft-teams-pick-based-latest-nba-lottery-projections

  1. Rockets - Chet Holmgren
  2. Magic - Jabari Smith
  3. Pistons - Paolo Banchero
  4. Thunder - Jaden Ivey
  5. Pacers - Keegan Murray
  6. Trailblazers - Shaedon Sharpe
  7. Kings - Johnny Davis
  8. Pelicans (via Lakers) - AJ Griffin
  9. Spurs - Jalen Duren
  10. Wizards - Dyson Daniels
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2022 NBA Draft: Breaking down the Pistons’ targets and scenarios with Sam Vecenie

I would be pretty sad if they take Murray at #4.  Much rather roll the dice on Sharpe.  

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Edwards: Anytime I mention Keegan Murray in a story, hinting that some in Detroit really like him, Pistons fans… aren’t ecstatic. I think there’s a real possibility that if Detroit picks fourth, and the “Big 3” frontcourt guys are off the board, that Murray would be in serious consideration. We’ve talked a little bit about it, but have you heard much about Detroit’s interest in Murray? And in your opinion, would taking him at fourth be a big reach?

Vecenie: I’ve heard that the Pistons are, at the very least, interested in him. Whether that’s at No. 4, No. 5, No. 6? I can’t say for sure. I doubt the Pistons even have their board locked down yet two months from the draft. But in terms of value, I don’t think taking Murray fourth is an enormous reach. I think there’s a pretty real chance we all look back in three years and wonder how Murray wasn’t the obvious National Player of the Year in the country this season. He just posted one of the most productive seasons in college basketball history in terms of volume combined with efficiency. He averaged 24 points and nine rebounds while shooting 55 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3, and 75 percent from the line. Think about that: he took five 3s per game and still shot 55 percent from the field. That’s really good! He also averaged 3.2 steals plus blocks per game as an active help-side defender. There aren’t really any statistical precedents for Murray doing what he did at the high-major level on that volume of 3s. 

The two guys I’ve been considering a lot when thinking about Murray are Tobias Harris and Antawn Jamison. Murray is probably a bit more athletic than Harris, though not quite the shooter. But they have similar levels of questions on defense in regard to on-ball lateral quickness and footwork. Harris has been a consistent top-50 player in the league for a while, and averaged 19/7/3 on 48/39/85 shooting from the field over the last five years. He peaked at just sub-All-Star level. 

Jamison peaked a bit higher, and had a bit more athleticism. But he was a similarly elite college player and producer who loved playing in mid-post isolations while also being able to step away and shoot, while also not necessarily being the most developed passer. Both were in the 6-foot-8, 225-pound range, and loved grabbing the ball off the glass and pushing in transition. Jamison made a couple of all-star games and averaged 20 points and eight rebounds for a decade in the NBA. I don’t think Murray is quite that good – he doesn’t have quite the same intersection of explosiveness and strength – but Jamison went fourth overall in the 1998 NBA Draft. 

In general, it’s just hard for me to see how Murray fails in the NBA given his shooting, handle, scoring skillset, and size. This isn’t an Obi Toppin situation where he was kind of an undersized, underskilled big who could just leap like crazy. Murray has legitimate skill-level things that will translate well to the pro level. 

 

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Givony and Schmitz broke down scenarios for the bottom 3 teams and for the Pistons they said if they get number 1 they need to take Chet. Along with other things about him as a player they say he is the best fit among the top guys for Cade. 

They also said if we fall out of the top 3 the best pick for us would be Ivey.

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chet worries me.  i'd stay away from chet.  who will he guard?  he'll get bullied by bigs and blown by by forwards.

he didnt play well in the ncaas.  

otoh, if he can nail 3 pointers and can spread the floor, he'll have a shot.  but if youre a team in the playoffs, wouldnt you just stick a stocky 6'4 player on him?  i dont know if chet could outmuscle a guard in the nba.

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I definitely have the same concerns but I would think the gurus know more than me and yet they seem to not have those concerns about him, or atleast to the extent that I and many of us on here share or else you would think he wouldn't essentially be the unanimous number 1.

Perhaps its just cause all the players in this draft have some sorta question mark and somebody has to be 1 so he gets it by default. 

Edited by RandyMarsh
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Smith is fairly athletic.  By that I mean he moves his feet well enough to defend the perimeter and stay on the court in the playoffs.  But you will be disappointed if you draft him to get downhill and attack the rim.  

The joke in Auburn game threads was always about Smith have 13 shots tonight on 9 dribbles.  The guy just cant, or wont, dribble.

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18 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Smith is fairly athletic.  By that I mean he moves his feet well enough to defend the perimeter and stay on the court in the playoffs.  But you will be disappointed if you draft him to get downhill and attack the rim.  

The joke in Auburn game threads was always about Smith have 13 shots tonight on 9 dribbles.  The guy just cant, or wont, dribble.

Exactly. You're not drafting Smith for athleticism. He won't dribble by anybody or create any offense using his athleticism. You're drafting him for his shot-making - which is elite. Don't get me wrong, I still take him #1 overall, but not because he's an athletic rim runner in any way.

On the other hand, if he's gone when its our turn to pick (or if we get the Portland pick) I want one of the athletes (Ivey, Sharpe, or Mathurin). I'm sure Murray will be a fine player, but he's a low ceiling, safe pick. I'd prefer to swing for another star next to Cade, especially if we have 2 picks.

 

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